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Link Posted: 12/23/2020 10:30:27 AM EST
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Originally Posted By Jetfuelburner:
Federal had a rebate program on their ammo to try to prop up sales that had literally tanked.  I decided to freshen up my stockpiles and the bonus was on top of hundreds of dollars in rebates for ammo that was finally at normal prices, I was buying from a retailer that for one of the flavors of ammo...was offering a free Magpul magazine with each can of ammo.  Let's hope we see that again.
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Federal had a $5 per box rebate this time last year on their hunting ammo. My son and I loaded up on 30/30 for $9.97/box and got the $5 rebate for each box up to 10 boxes. I can’t load it for $5 per box and am set for a lifetime no more than I shoot my 30/30’s.
Link Posted: 12/24/2020 5:20:40 AM EST
Here's a thought narrow down your lines.
In Federals 45 acp line, you have Champion, American Eagle, Hydroshok, HST, Syntech, Punch, Black,Train and protect, etc.
Link Posted: 12/24/2020 8:29:08 AM EST
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Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:


If that was the case, you’d be able to find those primary calibers (especially counting imports of those more common calibers).

It’s a tough sell that demand is so high for a handful of calibers that the whole US ammo industry plus the worldwide import market can’t keep up.
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It doesn’t take much to crash a plant activity..
raw materials supply is usually the main reason production cant keep up with the demand..
Even something simple like the packaging can delay the production.. if you don’t have the boxes how can you ship the ammo out?

To these basic concepts we should also consider the beerflu.. if an entire company or department get locked down for 10-15 days it’s a real nightmare to keep a business running..

Finally we should also consider the international market.. whats happening in the US is also happening globally. I want my ammo too
Link Posted: 12/24/2020 9:16:37 AM EST
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Originally Posted By UnaStamus:

Because the instant that the ammo hits the store, it’s gone.  Store owners and employees are hooking themselves and their buddies and family up before customers.  I’m sure there’s a lot of ammo that is coming in the back door of your gun shops and going right out to the employee vehicles.  Or they’re immediately calling their friends and family to come in as soon as they open to buy the ammo.  

But even if that’s not the case, the instant that ammo is hitting the shelves, it’s being purchased.  People are literally calling gun shops daily asking for ammo.  They’re visiting stored daily too.  And many are buying the maximum amount of ammo that the store will let them.  Even though most of them have no damn need for the ammo, they’re buying it.  And many are not shooting it.  A bunch of these people buying the ammo are stockpiling it, which is why so many stores are limiting how much each customer can purchase.  Your whole premise is that this is normal supply and demand, but it’s anything from normal.  More people are buying ammo than ever before, and they’re buying as much as they can because they have been told to.  Nobody needed to hoard TP or Lysol wipes, but they did because people are sheep and they get easily scared into this crap.  Gun owners are just like everyone else, and a lot of gun owners are sheep who are easily scared into believing that they need to stockpile ammo and buy ARs and AKs for no reason other than what- people getting the flu or an election outcome?  But yet it happened.

And he’s not lying.  They’re making ammo as fast as they can.  They actually went into their basement to pull out old machines, moved them to new locations in the main facility in Anoka, MN, and started a whole new production floor that they’ve never before done.  And yes, they’re on a major hiring drive.  And yes, there are idiots showing up to the factory regularly with conspiracy theories, acting like jackasses.    

If you doubt this, wait until late summer or fall of 2021 when ammo supplies start to come back.  Then see how much ammo (and semi-auto rifles) magically shows up for sale online.  Or when you suddenly see videos online or social media of people doing massive mag dumps with all the ammo they stockpiled for no reason.  It happened in 2009 after Obama was elected, and 2013 into 2014 after Sandy Hook.



Federal and Speer still have supply contracts they have to honor, in addition to the order backlogs.  Federal supplies ammo to more than half the LE agencies in the US, along with federal LE agencies.  On top of that, they are taking orders from distributors.  Federal is filling orders, but distributors are the ones that are disbursing it out from there.  Federal isn’t shipping directly to individual stores.  

Also, Cheaper Than Dirt is a known predatory markup offender.  They have stock, and they have predatory pricing.  People might want to start looking at why they have so much ammo in stock, and why they’re charging $60 for a box of 50rds of 9mm.  CTD did this during previous gun/ammo panics, and people always seem to forget about how big of dirtbags they are.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By UnaStamus:
Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:
Dude comes off as a total dick.

I’m not buying it, either.  His explanation doesn’t explain why every single store in town has (pretty much) zero ammo on the shelves, ever.

I went to three stores the other day and the only ammunition I saw was 3 boxes of .224 valk and 2 boxes of 460 bushmaster.  I’m not convinced that zero availability of any calibre is due to normal supply and demand.

Because the instant that the ammo hits the store, it’s gone.  Store owners and employees are hooking themselves and their buddies and family up before customers.  I’m sure there’s a lot of ammo that is coming in the back door of your gun shops and going right out to the employee vehicles.  Or they’re immediately calling their friends and family to come in as soon as they open to buy the ammo.  

But even if that’s not the case, the instant that ammo is hitting the shelves, it’s being purchased.  People are literally calling gun shops daily asking for ammo.  They’re visiting stored daily too.  And many are buying the maximum amount of ammo that the store will let them.  Even though most of them have no damn need for the ammo, they’re buying it.  And many are not shooting it.  A bunch of these people buying the ammo are stockpiling it, which is why so many stores are limiting how much each customer can purchase.  Your whole premise is that this is normal supply and demand, but it’s anything from normal.  More people are buying ammo than ever before, and they’re buying as much as they can because they have been told to.  Nobody needed to hoard TP or Lysol wipes, but they did because people are sheep and they get easily scared into this crap.  Gun owners are just like everyone else, and a lot of gun owners are sheep who are easily scared into believing that they need to stockpile ammo and buy ARs and AKs for no reason other than what- people getting the flu or an election outcome?  But yet it happened.

And he’s not lying.  They’re making ammo as fast as they can.  They actually went into their basement to pull out old machines, moved them to new locations in the main facility in Anoka, MN, and started a whole new production floor that they’ve never before done.  And yes, they’re on a major hiring drive.  And yes, there are idiots showing up to the factory regularly with conspiracy theories, acting like jackasses.    

If you doubt this, wait until late summer or fall of 2021 when ammo supplies start to come back.  Then see how much ammo (and semi-auto rifles) magically shows up for sale online.  Or when you suddenly see videos online or social media of people doing massive mag dumps with all the ammo they stockpiled for no reason.  It happened in 2009 after Obama was elected, and 2013 into 2014 after Sandy Hook.


Originally Posted By pebble:
I appreciate that they made this video at least addressing the issue, although i wish that they we're more informative. Let us know about some of the realities, the actual level of backlog, how they are prioritizing what ammo to make and where to sell it, because there's definitely more to the story. When i sign up for back in stock notifications for every single retailer, and months go by without any of them going back in stock, it clearly indicates the ammo that is being made is directed elsewhere. I guess it would be nice to get the perspective of some big retailers like cheaper than dirt etc in addition to the manufacturing side

Federal and Speer still have supply contracts they have to honor, in addition to the order backlogs.  Federal supplies ammo to more than half the LE agencies in the US, along with federal LE agencies.  On top of that, they are taking orders from distributors.  Federal is filling orders, but distributors are the ones that are disbursing it out from there.  Federal isn’t shipping directly to individual stores.  

Also, Cheaper Than Dirt is a known predatory markup offender.  They have stock, and they have predatory pricing.  People might want to start looking at why they have so much ammo in stock, and why they’re charging $60 for a box of 50rds of 9mm.  CTD did this during previous gun/ammo panics, and people always seem to forget about how big of dirtbags they are.


FWIW:
Cheaper than Dirt is being charged with price gouging:

https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2020/12/16/gun-website-price-gouging-pandemic/3932523001/
Link Posted: 12/24/2020 9:20:03 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:


I haven’t implied a conspiracy anywhere. I just don’t think the numbers add up.
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Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:
Originally Posted By TGH456E:
Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:
Originally Posted By Happy2shoot:
Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:
Dude comes off as a total dick.

I’m not buying it, either.  His explanation doesn’t explain why every single store in town has (pretty much) zero ammo on the shelves, ever.

I went to three stores the other day and the only ammunition I saw was 3 boxes of .224 valk and 2 boxes of 460 bushmaster.  I’m not convinced that zero availability of any calibre is due to normal supply and demand.



Did you watch the video?

More people buying more ammo.

Big retailers get the ammo before local stores.

There is over a years worth of backorders that get filled before a local store gets them.

They stop making anything other than the high volume stuff like: 9mm, and 223.

The United Nations bought out Federal and is eliminating ammo sales in the US. J/K


So the US demand for a few calibers exceeds the whole industry’s ability to produce it (including the import market)?

Doubtful.


Yes..... that is what is going on here.  
FWIW...... every time we've had a panic like this ...... whatever your favorite conspiracy theory is right now....has been proven wrong.  
I'm sorry, "this-go-around" is no different then the last 7? times...........  

So whatever your conspiracy theory is..... say it.... but it'll be disproven in a year or so.


I haven’t implied a conspiracy anywhere. I just don’t think the numbers add up.


Sorry...…  
"......FWIW...... every time we've had a panic like this ...... when ever someone doesn't think the numbers add up....it has been proven wrong.  
I'm sorry, "this-go-around" is no different then the last 7? times...........  

So whenever you think the numbers don't add up..... .... it'll be disproven in a year or so...….  "
Link Posted: 12/24/2020 9:57:01 AM EST
Originally Posted By Frens:


It doesn’t take much to crash a plant activity..
raw materials supply is usually the main reason production cant keep up with the demand..
Even something simple like the packaging can delay the production.. if you don’t have the boxes how can you ship the ammo out?

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I could buy into this theory, except the video in the OP suggests everything is hunky-dory and production is fine. Are you suggesting he’s lying?

Originally Posted By TGH456E:


Sorry...…  
"......FWIW...... every time we've had a panic like this ...... when ever someone doesn't think the numbers add up....it has been proven wrong.  
I'm sorry, "this-go-around" is no different then the last 7? times...........  

So whenever you think the numbers don't add up..... .... it'll be disproven in a year or so...….  "
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What will be disproven? I haven’t presented anything to disprove.  I just note that the “explanations” we’ve seen are contradictory.

Eleventy million new shooters?  Range traffic looks pretty normal to me. Are you suggesting Suzy Soccermom, who doesn’t really shoot, is building an ammo fort?
Link Posted: 12/24/2020 2:57:56 PM EST
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Originally Posted By TxRabbitBane:


I could buy into this theory, except the video in the OP suggests everything is hunky-dory and production is fine. Are you suggesting he’s lying?


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Don’t think he’s lying but rather being vague.
Production may be fine meaning they’re doing their best 24/7 despite the global pandemic.. still the demand is too high and sometimes there’s very little a company can do..
Link Posted: 12/24/2020 8:54:56 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/24/2020 8:59:42 PM EST by Polarbear31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Frens:


It doesn’t take much to crash a plant activity..
raw materials supply is usually the main reason production cant keep up with the demand..
Even something simple like the packaging can delay the production.. if you don’t have the boxes how can you ship the ammo out?

To these basic concepts we should also consider the beerflu.. if an entire company or department get locked down for 10-15 days it’s a real nightmare to keep a business running..

Finally we should also consider the international market.. whats happening in the US is also happening globally. I want my ammo too
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Yes. Crap happens. The problem is trying to do things the Toyota way. Just in time manufacturing doesn't work in the ammo industry.

Something as simple as not having the labels for packaging will slow shipping. That's why I think bulk packaging is the way to go right now.

The CEO isn't lying. We're working 24/7, still hiring at my plant (CCI), and still expanding.

Also LEO and DOD contracts take precedence in some cases.



Link Posted: 12/25/2020 3:35:03 AM EST
Another point is,
You can hire and expand now to fulfill the extra orders.. but is it a wise choice? I don’t think so.

what will happen when the market will go back to a normal situation?

What is a company going to do with extra employees and toolings when they’re not needed anymore?
Link Posted: 12/25/2020 10:48:47 AM EST
There is no ammo conspiracy. Let's try to apply some logic for a moment...

-Millions of new gun owners
-raw materials shortages (primers, powder, lead)
-complications with the workforce due to the wuflu "guidlines"
-reductions in ammo imports

and, perhaps most importantly, the people who buy the most know enough to buy as much as possible when it is available. Which they did.

Add jn contracts that need to be fulfilled and a perceived panic that has people paying triple or more from normal pricing and anything that isn't spoken for already with contracts and back orders is going to keep moving as soon as it hits shelves.

If you are a member on a gun site or consider yourself a gun person and don't have at least a reasonable supply at this time that is a failure in your planning as this could be seen coming for months. If you really thought ahead you stockpiled components and are still loading for less than the old "normal" pre-panic pricing.  If you didn't you're screwed now as components have dried up. Why is that? They're being used to load ammo and are subject to the same issues noted above.

Would you expect to be able to drive your car for a long time if fuel dried up? How about food stocks - do you have enough in the cupboards and freezer to last more than a few days if you can't get to the store?
Link Posted: 12/25/2020 11:14:17 AM EST
I could imagine telling my customers Lockheed, Boeing, Honeywell, GDLS, Eaton, Northrop Grumman, etc. I'm tired of hearing them bitching about our delinquencies.

What a fucking douche bag.

Link Posted: 1/3/2021 11:59:03 AM EST
[Last Edit: 1/3/2021 12:00:52 PM EST by jhud]
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Originally Posted By Sujumanji:
We appreciate the information but he comes off as a bit of an aggressive jackass, especially in the beginning. Not the best way to talk to your customers. He doesn’t come across as very presidential and needs to take a business communications course. I’m surprised their PR and marketing dept didn’t make him redo it which probably says a lot about how he is as a boss.
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Imagine if they got tired of the hate and quit.
Closed shop. Said I’ll take my money in this factory and sell it, live off that.  Fuck you and your zero ammo having stash.  
It’s fine bro. Let me the man work

This how ammo is made
Link Posted: 1/11/2021 10:11:10 PM EST
"The lady doth protest too much, methinks" - Act 3, Scene 2 of the play, Hamlet

Look, conspiracy theory or not, it has NEVER been this bad. There is a shortage of everything firearm related, and very little, if anything, trickling into the system. It is as if they don't want the civilian population to be well stocked and ready for action.
Link Posted: 1/12/2021 1:35:58 PM EST
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Originally Posted By geeck:
"The lady doth protest too much, methinks" - Act 3, Scene 2 of the play, Hamlet

Look, conspiracy theory or not, it has NEVER been this bad. There is a shortage of everything firearm related, and very little, if anything, trickling into the system. It is as if they don't want the civilian population to be well stocked and ready for action.
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I think the fuckery of the last ~week shows why.
Link Posted: 1/12/2021 2:26:21 PM EST
Purely speculation...


I would guess they are also gettIng some heavy orders for ammo they are contracted to produce.  Most big contracts have a priority requirement where the vendor must fill it in a given time frame and a lot of agencies buy off big contracts like the DHS ammo contract.  

Agencies have strict qual and training requirements...and are always paranoid about not having ammo.  I bet a lot of big agencies are putting in 7 figure total orders for ammo of multiple caliber.  


Link Posted: 1/16/2021 8:10:35 AM EST
[Last Edit: 1/16/2021 8:42:48 AM EST by Brahmzy]
The simple fact is online retailers are not receiving inventory, OR they’re not releasing inventory to the public
I have spent almost a year buying ammo with hyper awareness, monitoring the cadence/frequency at which over 30-40 online retailers have released ammo of various calibers and brands for sale.
There was a consistent flow all year long. I have every alert known to man, including my own bots, sniffing for in stock ammo, 24/7.
Simple fact is all online retailers smacked a wall at around the same time and everything came to a screeching halt. It is now only a tiny trickle of what it was as far as availability. This is fact, no conspiracy. A lot of the ammo, including less popular calibers has been halted altogether it seems.
Take S&B 124gr 300BLK for instance. That stuff would come in stock and sell very fast, despite price with a predictable cadence. Now, it’s simply gone from the online retailers. I haven’t gotten an alert for about 2 months, at any price.
One could say well maybe S&B has shifted their production capacity to the more popular calibers, like 9mm and 223 - nope - none of those have come into stock anywhere either. I would know, within seconds, if any of it came in stock anywhere.
The same thing has happened with most of the other brands as well.
So the thought that neckbeards are hoarding and immediately snatching inventory up from online retailers isn’t all true - it just isn’t there, at all, anywhere, for sale.

There are a couple of theories about this that I honestly don’t know what to believe, especially when I hear the Federal CEO claiming he’s never produced more, ever, than he’s producing now. What he’s producing isn’t going to the American public, I can guarantee as fact. It is not going up for sale on retailer’s websites. There are 3 small brick and mortar retailers I’m familiar with who haven’t received an ammo order in over 2 months, from anybody.

I could list about 7 possible scenarios as to what’s happening, but that’s all been done and I haven’t heard a proven answer either way.

While I think GunBroker is mostly neckbeards cashing in on what they bought @ low prices early in the year, I have also wondered if some of the larger retailers have moved to GB’s auction style, under various personal accounts to maximize profit. Still, the volume there isn’t anything compared to what normal retailers move.

So are warehouses full and retailers are trickling it out at insane prices?
Are primers really the problem for all brands and calibers? Wouldn’t primers be being made now at 10x the rate to catch up have fixed the issue by now?
Is DOD shifting / forcing all available capacity from all brands, all factories, foreign and domestic to give them top priority?
Anybody see the inside of of SGAmmo’s warehouse? Is it full? Empty? How about Midway’s?

What stopped the flow Mr. Federal CEO? How about telling us who’s contract(s) you’re fulfilling instead of bitching at us. You might be the busiest you’ve ever been, but it isn’t ending up in the American public’s hands.

I guarantee the uppers at Midway, Brownells, SGAmmo, TargetSports etc know exactly the cause of what’s going on - this is affecting their bottom line. They are fully aware of what has happened - I think they owe us an explanation, at this point, at this time in history what really is happening. This is unlike anything before and shows no signs of stopping, no light at the end of the tunnel.
Link Posted: 1/16/2021 9:05:37 AM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Frens:
Another point is,
You can hire and expand now to fulfill the extra orders.. but is it a wise choice? I don’t think so.

what will happen when the market will go back to a normal situation?

What is a company going to do with extra employees and toolings when they’re not needed anymore?
View Quote

What happens when the Xiden cabal puts the clamp on online sales?  Uses excessive taxation to drive demand down?  Goes even further and requires registration for all ammunition sales?

The 2nd Amendment protects the right to keep and bear arms.  Does it protect the right to buy (or even make) ammunition?
Link Posted: 1/16/2021 1:26:15 PM EST
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By eracer:

What happens when the Xiden cabal puts the clamp on online sales?  Uses excessive taxation to drive demand down?  Goes even further and requires registration for all ammunition sales?

The 2nd Amendment protects the right to keep and bear arms.  Does it protect the right to buy (or even make) ammunition?
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I would interpret the right to “bear” arms to include ammo. Since without ammo, the arms are pretty much useless. Now, will a court agree with that? Who knows at this point.
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