When I started last year, I had heard that Federal did have layoffs. No one I talked to on various forums had experienced a layoff for several years––but we all know the economy was tanking already last year. HR had also stated that layoffs had happened, but not recently, and that typically people were hired back within a year. (A year is how long you are on the roster in a layoff, after that, they may require you to start all over).
My #1 priority was cheap ammo and to get my foot in the door, so I jumped. Several guys that started with me had QUIT a job to get in with ATK. I just moved around my Real Estate schedule.
That same month, we were all laid off. This was November 08. HR said they were suprised. By the way, none of these new hires were taken back to their old (pre Federal) jobs.
Just about six months later, I am back. Foot was in the door, so now I am moving up the chain. HR says that this hire should almost certainly last longer. But, one of the guys I am working with has been there just under three years, and he was to be in the next wave of layoff sin January 09. However, things turned around and the plant is busy.
Many people have been there a long time. Rumor has it that one old guy actually died at work of old age.
As far as commuting, I have been doing that all my life and it is just part of the price of having to work. Takes me 32-40 minutes (driving thru McD's for a coffee) down; but have to avoid rush hour going home, so 40-50 minutes. my Average times last week were 35 down and 45 home. I just call my buds or listen to the radio or some fire and brimstone preachin'!
Keep in mind, that gives me almost exactly 10 hours to eat, sleep, and spend with the family before having to be back at the grindstone. Easy on the three day weeks, a bit tougher on the four day weeks (but then you just think about that 8 hours of time and a half you are getting that week).
I don't think you can tell or know. Just have a plan B. This job is dependent on economy, Military spending, and potential legislation.