[ARCHIVED THREAD] - O U T B R E A K W A R N I N G - Offical Swine Flu Thread - Now with poll (Page 31 of 33)

Posted: 5/18/2009 5:17:52 PM EDT

[#1]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The new influenza strain circulating around most of the United States is putting a worrying number of young adults and children into the hospital and hitting more schools than usual, U.S. health officials said on Monday.

The H1N1 swine flu virus killed a vice principal at a New York City school over the weekend and has spread to 48 states. While it appears to be mild, it is affecting a disproportionate number of children, teenagers and young adults.

This includes people needing hospitalization –– now up to 200, said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"That's very unusual, to have so many people under 20 to require hospitalization, and some of them in (intensive care units)," Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing.

"We are now experiencing levels of influenza-like illness that are higher than usual for this time of year," Schuchat added. "We are also seeing outbreaks in schools, which is extremely unusual for this time of year."

New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Frieden agreed with Schuchat.

"We're seeing increasing numbers of people going to emergency departments saying they have fever and flu, particularly young people in the 5 to 17 age group, " Frieden, who has been named by U.S. President Barack Obama as the new CDC director, told a news conference.

About half of all cases of influenza are being diagnosed as the new H1N1 strain, while the rest are influenza B, or the seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Flu season in the United States is usually almost over by May.

CDC officials say around 100,000 people are likely infected with the new flu strain in the United States and Schuchat said the 5,123 confirmed and probable cases and six deaths in the United States were "the tip of the iceberg."

MORE ILLNESS OVERALL

"We are seeing more reports of influenza-like illness from outpatient visits that we monitor than is typical for this time of year," Schuchat said.

Because doctors usually treat symptoms and only occasionally give flu tests to patients, the CDC must monitor reports of symptoms such as fever, cough and muscle aches to track flu activity. Some centers are doing actual influenza tests to confirm the patterns that are seen.

Influenza is a factor in 36,000 deaths a year in the United States and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths globally, the CDC says.

"Unlike the seasonal flu, we are seeing relatively few cases or hospitalizations in people over 65," Schuchat said. Usually flu kills the elderly and people with chronic diseases.

There is no evidence that a second, bacterial infection is worsening the H1N1 cases, Schuchat said.

When family members are questioned, it seems clear that children and teens are more prone to infection than older adults, Schuchat said. "People under 18 are more likely to have infections when another person in the family is infected," she said.

"One of our working hypotheses is that older adults may have some pre-existing protection against this virus due to their exposure long ago to some virus that may be distantly related," Schuchat said.

An alternative hypothesis is that it just has not had a chance to make its way into the older population yet.

(Editing by Julie Steenhuysen and Xavier Briand)

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE54H3QO20090518?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true

Posted: 5/20/2009 4:19:01 AM EDT

[#2]

Quoted:

Let's not make it a yes or no agreement however, but rate agreement on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being total agreement.

Quoted:

We are almost saying the same thing as far as I can tell.

It is not currently a lethal epidemic. Agree at a 10 level.

It has the potential to mutate into something worse and should be watched closely by WHO/CDC. Agree at about a .1 level. More likely than an asteroid hitting the Earth but less likely than an Israeli attack on Iran.

According to WHO and other published data it is affecting the 15-55 age range and people without preexisting medical conditions more than the varieties of flu we commonly get each winter. Agree at an 8. But it is affecting WAY, and I mean WAY less people than the average flu.

According to WHO and other published data more people are infected with flu now (april/may 2009) than during the same period (april/may) of a typical year. Agree at a 10, but it is really irrelevant to anything. It just happened to get started during this time period.

Do you disagree with those 4 statements?

Yes, I agree 110% with you that it is absurd to panic about the swine flu the way the mainstream media did for about a week (until they got distracted by some reality show again), but at the same time it is equally absurd to suggest it should be ignored completely and we should all say it is no different to the "regular" flu.

How would you agree with the following three statements.

About 35,000 people die from the common flu every year in the US.

About 1/3 of the US population gets the common flu every year in the US.

If the media followed the course of the regular flu with the intensity that they followed this one the panic would be massive.

I agree with your three statements, never said I didn't.

As you are staff maybe you (or one of the GD mods) should change the thread subject to get rid of "O U T B R E A K W A R N I N G"? maybe add "(don't panic)" at the end

, I would like there to be one thread here for non-alarmist news updates about the Swine Flu so those of us who are interested in it can follow the news and it can either be this thread or another thread I start (I was trying to keep it here as this is the "official" thread).

Posted: 5/20/2009 4:22:51 AM EDT

[#3]

Is it normal during May (or any other month for that matter) for a major hospital to set up triage in the parking lot to deal with flu cases? it is people who are really sick or is it panic thanks to too much media hype?

http://wcbstv.com/topstories/swine.flu.baby.2.1013607.html

Father: Baby Did Not Die From Influenza

Number Of Closed Schools In Tri-State Jumps To 23

NEW YORK (CBS) ―
The swine flu is shuttering more and more schools and the question as
to whether it claimed the life of a New York City infant appears to
have been answered. In
the latest developments Tuesday, 23 schools in the CBS 2 viewing area
are now closed and the Queens Hospital Center has set up a triage area
in the parking lot to help the many patients with flu symptoms.
Late Tuesday afternoon, parents of 16-month-old Jonathan Zamora
Castillo arrived home saying they still had no answers to what happened
to their baby boy. The infant's father says doctors had told him his
child did not have the flu. Speaking from inside the family's Corona
home, an aunt told CBS 2 the child's parents are devastated by the loss
of their son. Hospital officials say the baby only had a fever Monday
morning, but by bedtime he was unconscious and blue. His parents rushed
him to the hospital at around 9:30 Monday night, and he was pronounced
dead less than an hour later.
Tests were being done to determine if the child died from swine flu.
"What we do know is clear: the loss of this child's life underscores
the message of what we've been repeating for weeks. If you are sick,
really sick, or if your child is really sick, don't hesitate to seek
medical attention," Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Tuesday morning.
The baby's 3-year-old sister and two cousins also came down with
flu-like symptoms. The other three children, who lived in Corona with
Jonathan, were treated at the same hospital and released
Hundreds of parents have been seeking medical attention for their children.
"I'm so worried because I saw the news inside the hospital. One baby died last night here," said Daisy, a Queens resident.
At Queens General Hospital a triage tent has been set up to handle the
large number of patients coming in to be tested for swine flu.
Emergency rooms like the pediatric ER at Elmhurst Hospital has more
than doubled their patient load.
"Throughout the weekend we saw approximately 370 per day. Yesterday
was 407. Predominately a great percentage are with flu-like symptoms,"
said Dario Centorcelli, a spokesperson for the Hospital.
Meanwhile, more schools continue to close their doors as significant numbers of students with flu-like symptoms grow.
Meanwhile, the list of schools closing as a result of the swine flu
continues to grow. Two private schools in the Bronx and a parochial
school in Queens are adding their names to the list.
The Horace Mann School in Riverdale said in an e-mail to parents that
it will close at the end of the day Tuesday and reopen on May 26. The
e-mail says lots of students have been going home with the flu, though
no one has tested positive for swine flu.
Parents waiting to pick up their children at the prestigious school
were confident the school was doing the right thing by closing.
"Kids are absent from school for a variety of reasons. We are focusing
on kids that are being identified by a school nurse as having a
documented fever. That's the main indicator we are looking at," said
Deputy Health Commissioner Adam Karpati.
For the thousands of New York City children affected by the school
closings, the Board of Education is putting their assignments on their
Web site.
The latest developments in the swine flu outbreak have raised concerns among parents of school-aged children and younger.
Many are wondering, if the baby's death is linked with swine flu, would that change our perspective on the illness?
"Not really," says CBS 2 Dr. Holly Phillips. "We do expect many more
cases of swine flu to develop and unfortunately for there to be more
deaths. With the normal flu virus, those at greatest risk of
complications are the very young, very old, and those with other
medical problems. So the death of a young child is not unheard of."
And as to whether parents should pull their children out of school, Dr.
Phillips says parents should pay close attention to any developments at
their children's schools.
"That is not being recommended now, although I know a lot of parents
are thinking about it. It seems that otherwise healthy school-age
children recover from the virus just fine, but definitely be on the
alert if there is an outbreak in the school. I know a lot of parents
are looking forward to summer break," she says.
Symptoms of the swine flu include fever, cough, sore throat, body
aches, headache, chills and fatigue. Some people have reported diarrhea
and vomiting as well. Anyone experiencing severe symptoms, such as
difficulty breathing, should seek health care and treatment. The best
way to prevent additional cases of flu in schools is to stay home when
sick, cover your mouth when coughing and sneezing, and wash hands
frequently.
For those who are ill, the recommendation is to stay home until they are symptom-free for at least 24 hours.
Eating pork or pork products cannot spread the swine flu.

Posted: 5/20/2009 4:24:21 AM EDT

[#4]

http://www.fox2now.com/ktvi-st-louis-swine-flu-death-051909,0,209223.story

St. Louis Man With Swine Flu Dies

ST. LOUIS, MO - A St. Louis County man who had swine flu has died. If
officials confirm he died from the disease he would be the first swine
flu death in Missouri. He was one of five confirmed swine flu cases in
St. Louis County and one of twenty in Missouri. County health officials
say the 44 year old man had traveled to Mexico in late April. When he
returned to St. Louis in early May he didn't feel well. Around May 8th
he was hospitalized and remained there until he died early this morning.

Health officials call this an unusual case.

Dr. Dolores Gunn is head of the county health department, "It appears
at this time it was a more aggressive form and it was rather unusual
here in the state of Missouri for this particular 44 year old male
because it was so unusual that this is why we're working directly with
the Centers for Disease Control and the State of Missouri."

She says it's unusual because at this point it appears the man did not have any underlying medical problems.

Although officials are not releasing the man's identify Fox 2 has
learned he worked at an athletic complex in Bridgeton where he served
as a part-time umpire. Friends say he was popular in what can be an
unpopular job.

John Bell knew the patient, "He was liked by everyone whether it was
coaches, teams, players, fans, you know he was a friend on the field
and off the field."

Other friends describe the victim as an outgoing person who was a loving father.

Missouri has reported 20 cases of swine flu. The U.S. Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention said 47 states plus the District of
Columbia have a combined 5,123 confirmed and probable cases of swine
flu. And the World Health Organization said 40 countries have reported
more than 9,830 cases, mostly in the U.S. and Mexico. Global deaths
before the St. Louis County case were at 80 –– 72 in Mexico, six in the
U.S., one each in Canada and Costa Rica.

Posted: 5/20/2009 4:30:11 AM EDT

[#5]

If 100k have the flu and deaths are so low then this backs up the consensus that the flu is not currently very deadly and the only real concern is if it mutates into a more deadly version.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,520611,00.html?sPage=fnc/health/infectious

CDC: 100,000 Americans Likely Infected With Swine Flu

Government officials say it's likely that 100,000 Americans are infected with the new influenza strain that is worrying health experts around the world.

Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the 5,123 confirmed and probable cases swine flu cases and six deaths in the United States were "the tip of the iceberg."

The new strain of H1N1 is also putting a worrying number of young adults and children into the hospital — as many as 200 people have been hospitalized in the U.S. — and hitting more schools than usual.

"That's very unusual, to have so many people under 20 to require hospitalization, and some of them in (intensive care units)," Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing.

"We are now experiencing levels of influenza-like illness that are higher than usual for this time of year," Schuchat added. "We are also seeing outbreaks in schools, which is extremely unusual for this time of year."

It killed a vice principal at a New York City school over the weekend and has spread to 48 states. While it appears to be mild, it is affecting a disproportionate number of children, teenagers and young adults.

It is also suspected in the death of a 44-year-old Missouri man and a New York City toddler, health officials said Tuesday.

New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Frieden agreed with Schuchat.

"We're seeing increasing numbers of people going to emergency departments saying they have fever and flu, particularly young people in the 5 to 17 age group, " Frieden, who has been named by U.S. President Barack Obama as the new CDC director, told a news conference.

About half of all cases of influenza are being diagnosed as the new H1N1 strain, while the rest are influenza B, or the seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Flu season in the United States is usually almost over by May.

MORE ILLNESS OVERALL

"We are seeing more reports of influenza-like illness from outpatient visits that we monitor than is typical for this time of year," Schuchat said.

Because doctors usually treat symptoms and only occasionally give flu tests to patients, the CDC must monitor reports of symptoms such as fever, cough and muscle aches to track flu activity. Some centers are doing actual influenza tests to confirm the patterns that are seen.

Influenza is a factor in 36,000 deaths a year in the United States and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths globally, the CDC says.

"Unlike the seasonal flu, we are seeing relatively few cases or hospitalizations in people over 65," Schuchat said. Usually flu kills the elderly and people with chronic diseases.

There is no evidence that a second, bacterial infection is worsening the H1N1 cases, Schuchat said.

When family members are questioned, it seems clear that children and teens are more prone to infection than older adults, Schuchat said. "People under 18 are more likely to have infections when another person in the family is infected," she said.

"One of our working hypotheses is that older adults may have some pre-existing protection against this virus due to their exposure long ago to some virus that may be distantly related," Schuchat said.

An alternative hypothesis is that it just has not had a chance to make its way into the older population yet.

Posted: 5/20/2009 4:59:32 AM EDT

[#6]

I do find it interesting how long this bug is lasting.

Usually flu cases are down by now - the warm weather breaks down the cell walls and the virus can not survive for long.

Av.

Posted: 5/21/2009 3:25:09 PM EDT

[#7]

Confirmed cases are approaching 7,000 in the US, with 9 deaths so far. That's not much worse than the kill rate as normal influenza (1 in 1,000-2,000).

I'm very glad that the wheels are in motion to respond if this virus becomes more deadly, though.

link

Posted: 5/21/2009 4:10:51 PM EDT

[#8]

Have no worries my friends, it's all just a mild thing... ETA: Just 25% hospitalization required with current confirmed cases...

http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/health/swine_flu/090521_56_Hospitalized_With_Swine_Flu_in_NYC

56 Hospitalized With
Swine Flu in NYC
Updated: Thursday, 21 May 2009, 7:00 PM EDT
Published : Thursday, 21 May 2009, 6:59 PM EDT

A health department spokeswoman says 56 people are hospitalized with confirmed cases of swine flu around New York City.

Spokeswoman Jessica Scaperotti had no information Wednesday on the patients' conditions or ages, or how the number of hospitalizations compares with recent days or weeks.

The department says most swine flu cases still are mild. City and state officials say there are more than 220 confirmed cases citywide. But Scaperotti says that represents only a fraction of the sick because only people with severe cases or in suspected clusters are being tested.

An assistant school principal died of the virus Sunday. Scaperotti says there are no more suspected swine flu deaths in the city.

Seasonal flu causes about 1,000 New York City deaths a year.

Posted: 5/21/2009 4:18:01 PM EDT

[#9]

They're here!!!!

Will take care of you.

Stoopid Monkey...........

Posted: 6/3/2009 2:04:01 PM EDT

[#10]

Latest NYC Health Report

Health Department Reports that more than 80% of New Yorkers Hospitalized with H1N1 Flu Have Had One or More Underlying Risk Factors

Two additional deaths linked to H1N1 virus, bringing the total to seven

People at risk of flu complications should call a doctor to discuss medication if they develop fever of 100.4 degrees with cough or sore throat

Flu-related emergency department visits have declined since May 25

June 3, 2009 – Illness from H1N1 influenza continues to occur throughout New York City, with most people experiencing only mild illness. Emergency room visits have declined somewhat after spiking dramatically during the third week of May. As anticipated, however, the infections have caused hospitalizations and deaths. More than 300 New Yorkers have been hospitalized with H1N1 flu since late April, and the Health Department today provided the first detailed breakdown of risk factors among those hospitalized. A preliminary analysis of 152 hospitalized patients shows that at least 82% have belonged to one or more groups at higher risk of severe illness or complications from influenza. Those at higher risk of flu complications include:

People who are over 65, under age 2, or pregnant
People with chronic lung problems, such as asthma or emphysema
People with chronic heart, kidney, liver or blood disorders
People with neurological disorders that can cause breathing problems
People with diabetes
People whose immune systems are weakened due to illness or medication
People under 18 years who are on long-term aspirin therapy
So far, the most common risk factor in New York City has been asthma – an underlying risk factor among 41% of the New Yorkers hospitalized for H1N1 flu. Other important risk factors include being less than 2 years of age (18% of hospitalized patients), having a compromised immune system (13%), having heart disease (12%), or being pregnant. The Health Department recommends that people with asthma, or any of the other conditions listed here, to call a doctor right away if they develop flu-like illness. Antiviral medicines such as Tamiflu® or Relenza®, if taken early (within the first two days of symptoms), can help reduce the risk of severe illness and complications. A diagnosis of flu-like illness does not require medical testing. Anyone feeling ill can take his or her temperature with a home thermometer. A temperature of 100.4 degrees is a fever. If the fever is accompanied by cough or sore throat, the condition qualifies as flu-like illness.

The Health Department is continuing a more detailed analysis of hospitalized patients’ health histories, which may identify other underlying health conditions. The agency will report these findings when the analysis is complete.

Additional H1N1-related deaths identified
The Health Department today linked two more deaths to H1N1 influenza. The latest fatalities – both in adults in their early and mid 40s – bring the total number of deaths to seven. All deaths to date have occurred in people under 65 years of age (the median age is 43). Six of the seven deaths have occurred in people with underlying conditions (including obesity) that can interfere with normal breathing, and one death is still under investigation. To safeguard patient privacy, the Health Department does not report on the clinical details of individual cases.

Other Health Department H1N1 monitoring activities
The City’s syndromic surveillance system shows that flu-related emergency department visits declined last week from their peak on May 25. Flu-related visits, which can reflect factors other than actual illness, were 15 times the expected level for this time of year. The number has since declined but is still far higher than the usual level.

Hospitals report that many of the patients seeking care at emergency rooms have been mildly ill or “worried but well.” Others have reportedly come seeking tests for H1N1 infection, or seeking notes certifying that they are free of H1N1 infection when returning to work or school after an illness. The Health Department urges people not to go to the emergency department for these reasons. Anyone with flu-like illness should stay home until fully recovered and free of symptoms for 24 hours. H1N1 testing is not widely available – or necessary – for people with mild flu-like illness. Testing is not available or needed before returning to work or school. For more information see H1N1 ‘Swine Flu’ What You Need to Know (Basic FAQ) (PDF).

People in the risk groups mentioned above should call their doctor or clinic if they develop symptoms, but only people with severe symptoms, such as difficulty breathing, should visit emergency departments.

The Health Department continues to survey New Yorkers to better understand what proportion of the city’s population has experienced flu-like illness since late April, and what types of symptoms people have experienced. The agency recently completed a random-digit-dial telephone survey of 1,000 New York City residents and will soon conduct a voluntary online survey of several thousand New York City employees. Results from both surveys will be made public when the analysis is complete.

Guidelines for health care providers:
Doctors should make sure that all people who develop flu-like illness (temperature of at least 100.4 with cough or sore throat) – and who are below 2 or above 65 years old, or have diabetes, emphysema, asthma, or other chronic illnesses – get treated with antiviral medication, like Tamiflu. Asthma is the most common chronic illness among children in New York City, and these children are at higher risk for severe illness if they get the flu. Detailed recommendations for evaluation and treatment of patients with flu-like illness are available at www.nyc.gov/health/han.

Only people with more serious symptoms, such as difficulty breathing or shortness of breath, should go to the emergency department. Doctors should do everything they can to help prevent people with mild flu symptoms from going to the emergency department and should consider prescribing Tamiflu® or Relenza® over the phone for their patients with mild flu-like and underlying health conditions.

When treatment is indicated for one of the above reasons, it should be started as soon as possible, ideally within 48 hours after the person first feels sick.

Doctors should check the Health Department website at www.nyc.gov/health for updated recommendations and information.

Actions that anyone can take to slow the spread of influenza:
All New Yorkers should cover their mouths when they cough with their sleeve or a tissue or handkerchief.

Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hand cleaners are also effective.

Try to avoid close contact with sick people.

If you are sick with fever and either a cough or sore throat, stay home for at least 24 hours after all of your symptoms are gone

Stay away from clinics and hospitals unless you have severe symptoms, and notify your doctor or the clinic before, or as soon as you arrive, that you have a fever and respiratory systems so that you can be appropriately isolated from others.

Posted: 6/3/2009 2:46:23 PM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
Have no worries my friends, it's all just a mild thing... ETA: Just 25% hospitalization required with current confirmed cases...

http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/health/swine_flu/090521_56_Hospitalized_With_Swine_Flu_in_NYC

56 Hospitalized With
Swine Flu in NYC
Updated: Thursday, 21 May 2009, 7:00 PM EDT
Published : Thursday, 21 May 2009, 6:59 PM EDT

A health department spokeswoman says 56 people are hospitalized with confirmed cases of swine flu around New York City.

Spokeswoman Jessica Scaperotti had no information Wednesday on the patients' conditions or ages, or how the number of hospitalizations compares with recent days or weeks.

The department says most swine flu cases still are mild. City and state officials say there are more than 220 confirmed cases citywide. But Scaperotti says that represents only a fraction of the sick because only people with severe cases or in suspected clusters are being tested.

An assistant school principal died of the virus Sunday. Scaperotti says there are no more suspected swine flu deaths in the city.

Seasonal flu causes about 1,000 New York City deaths a year.

Of course, that's just confirmed cases. Those are the people sick enough to go seek treatment, that doesn't include probably the hundreds of people who get sick with the flu that never see the doctor.

Posted: 6/5/2009 6:51:41 AM EDT

[#12]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hjdCHrP82YTFser5vD6CzTK1az6wD98K7FA00

New swine flu deaths reported in 6 states

By CARRIE ANTLFINGER – 13 hours ago

MILWAUKEE (AP) — Health officials in a half dozen states reported
deaths from swine flu on Thursday, and said all six patients had been
diagnosed with other health problems

An adult living in Milwaukee
became Wisconsin's first resident to die with the H1N1 virus. City
Health Commissioner Bevan Baker would not release any details except to
say that the person had a common underlying health condition that he
would not specify.

Pennsylvania also reported its first death
from the illness. The 55-year-old Berks County woman who died with the
flu had significant underlying health issues, a health department
spokeswoman said.

In Illinois, a 74-year-old man from Gurnee died
Tuesday, according to the Lake County Health Department. Officials said
he had significant medical conditions that increased his vulnerability.

Officials
in California said a 9-year-old Concord girl had been diagnosed with
swine flu and had a bacterial infection before she died May 29. The
patient who died in Utah also was under 18, according to Gary Edwards,
executive director of the Salt Lake Valley Health Department.

In
Arizona, a 64-year-old woman living in Pinal County became the fifth
person in the state to die from complications of swine flu, authorities
said. The woman had underlying health conditions and was being treated
for pneumonia at the time of her death last week, health officials said.

Posted: 6/9/2009 10:42:01 PM EDT

[#13]

GENEVA — The World Health Organization (WHO) is on the verge of declaring the first influenza pandemic in more than 40 years, but wants to ensure countries are well prepared to prevent a panic, its top flu expert said on Tuesday.

Keiji Fukuda, acting WHO assistant director-general, voiced concern at the sustained spread of the new H1N1 strain –– including more than 1,000 cases in Australia –– following major outbreaks in North America, where it emerged in April.

OK, how are we supposed to pronounce this guys last name?

Posted: 6/10/2009 1:23:14 AM EDT

[#14]

Australia flu 'may tip pandemic'

By Phil Mercer

BBC News, Sydney

Pacific Dawn cruise ship on earlier visit to Sydney, January 08

A cruise ship scare helped spike swine flu infections in Australia

The World Health Organization has said that a sharp increase in swine flu cases in Australia may push it to finally announce a flu pandemic.

It would be the first such pandemic announced in four decades.

More than 1,200 people have contracted the virus in Australia, a four-fold increase in a week.

Less than a month ago Australia had only a handful of cases of the H1N1 virus but it now has the highest number of infections outside North America.

Victoria and the state capital, Melbourne, are the worst-hit with more than 1,000 confirmed cases, although most of those affected are suffering only a mild illness.

There have been no swine flu fatalities in Australia.

But the Queensland Health Minister Paul Lucas has warned it was inevitable the contagious respiratory condition would claim lives.

Going global?

The rapid spread of swine flu in Australia could force the World Health Organisation to declare a pandemic, meaning the outbreak had gone global.

For that to happen, officials would have to verify that the disease had become established outside North America, where the crisis began.

As the number of H1N1 cases in Australia passes 1,200, Singapore has urged its citizens to avoid travel to Victoria.

Authorities in New South Wales and South Australia, as well as the national capital, Canberra, have told children who have recently travelled to Melbourne to stay away from school for a week on their return home.

The entire squad and staff of the Brisbane Broncos rugby league club have been put into quarantine as tests are carried out on a player suspected of contracting swine flu.

Posted: 6/10/2009 1:27:10 AM EDT

[#15]

Swine Flu Is Way Worse Than Expected

When we began writing about the impending swine flu pandemic, many
readers thought we were buying into some kind of government created
panic. Our view was exactly the opposite: the government was
understating the risks of swine flu, worried that a "panic" would hurt
the economy. Mainstream media sources started by being "responsible"
and under-reporting the risks in the US, bought into the panic for a
week or so, then quietly dropped the story.

The story of swine flu has now effectively dropped out of public
discussion. In fact, when it is discussed it usually as a critique of
health authorities for needlessly creating a scare.

Once again, however, this is exactly backwards. Swine flu has not
turned out to be a non-event. It is not more confined than intially
feared. Indeed, the official risk models of swine flu dramatically
underestimated how widespread it has become.

As the New York Times reports,
two rival supercomputer teams made projections about the swine flu
epidemic. One said that swine flu would hit 2,000 people by the end of
May. Another said the number would be 25 percent higher: 2,500. (The
innumerate editors of the New York Times call these estimate
"surprisingly similar," but that's not important for now.)

In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate
that by the end of May there were upwards of 100,000 cases of swine flu
in the country. So much for the models that told us the risks weren't
so big.

Posted: 6/10/2009 1:28:23 AM EDT

[#16]

Navy reports 21 swine flu cases on USS Iwo Jima

14 hours ago

NORFOLK, Va. (AP) — The Navy is reporting 21 cases of swine flu on board the USS Iwo Jima.

Navy
spokesman Cmd. Cappy Surette says the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention confirmed the first case on May 27. The amphibious assault
ship left New York on May 26 after participating in Fleet Week.

Surette says the cases were mild. All 21 sailors and Marines were treated in New York and have since returned to duty.

Several other people have been isolated in the ship's medical ward after developing flu-like symptoms.

The Iwo Jima is scheduled to return to Norfolk later this week.

Surette says the Navy has had 147 confirmed cases of H1N1, and 137 of those people have returned to work.

Posted: 6/10/2009 1:31:44 AM EDT

[#17]

From the Los Angeles Times

WHO close to raising alert to highest level for swine flu

The
H1N1 outbreak would be considered a pandemic. But the health
organization is worried that could lead to border closings, travel
restrictions and people with mild illnesses flooding ERs.

By Thomas H. Maugh II

June 10, 2009

The World Health Organization is inching closer to raising the
infectious disease alert level for the novel H1N1 influenza outbreak to
its highest level, indicating that a pandemic has arrived, but has
delayed doing so in an effort to prepare national health organizations
and populations for the impact of such an announcement, a top agency
official said Tuesday in a telephone news conference.

The
number of confirmed cases in Australia surpassed 1,200 on Monday, and
the virus is no longer restricted to schools and other institutions
there, suggesting that community-wide spread has begun.

Such a
spread in two regions of the world –– it already has been observed in
North America –– is the primary criterion for raising the alert level
to Phase 6.

"One of the critical issues is that we do not want
people to over-panic if they hear that we are in a pandemic situation,"
said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director general of WHO.

WHO officials worry that a pandemic declaration will lead people with mild illnesses to overwhelm emergency rooms.

"In earlier outbreaks, we have often seen that people who are in the
category of being worried, but who are not particularly sick, have
overrun hospitals," Fukuda said.

In the early stages of the
current outbreak, he said, governments closed borders and issued travel
restrictions. People stopped eating pork, pig herds were killed, and
imports of pork were restricted by some countries.

"These are the kinds of potential adverse effects" that the agency is trying to avoid, he said.

Reporters pressed Fukuda about why, given the clear spread in Australia, the agency has not increased the alert level.

"We are really getting very close to that," he said. "We are working very hard to ensure that everyone is prepared for that."

In
a separate talk with reporters, WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said
she would confer with heads of governments around the world today to
verify some of the reports the agency has received.

"Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement," she said.

In
an effort to prevent overreaction to an increase in the alert level,
the agency last week decided to divide Phase 6 into three tiers to
indicate the severity of the pandemic. Barring changes in the next few
days, the agency probably will indicate that the severity is at the
lowest level when the alert stage is raised, indicating that the virus
is spreading through populations, but that its effects remain
relatively mild.

As of Tuesday morning, Fukuda said, there were
26,563 laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1 flu, or swine flu, in 73
countries, with 140 deaths. In the United States, the most recent
figures from the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
showed 13,217 confirmed cases and 27 deaths.

Officials believe
the number of cases, both in this country and worldwide, is actually
much higher because many people have mild cases and are not tested.

Fukuda
said that researchers have seen few, if any, changes in the virus since
its emergence in Mexico early this year, and that it still remains
susceptible to the antiviral drug Tamiflu.

But they are
concerned that infections continue in North America and Europe, even
though the traditional flu season has ended in the Northern Hemisphere.

"The disease patterns are not what we see from seasonal influenza," he
said. That suggests the virus has greater capability for spread than
does the seasonal flu.

Most of the infections have been in
people younger than 60, which is also different from seasonal flu. That
suggests, some experts said, that older people may have been exposed at
some point to a different swine flu virus that has conferred some
immunity.

About half of the people who have died of the virus were previously healthy, with no underlying medical conditions.

"That is one of the observations that has given us the most concern,"
Fukuda said. "We don't know why they died and why other people
recovered."

Posted: 6/10/2009 1:35:35 AM EDT

[#18]

Posted: 6/10/2009 2:08:00 AM EDT

[#19]

The wiki graphic of flu cases is no longer being regularly updated so I created an updated one.
A reminder: posting news about the flu isn't intended to make people panic, the S has not HTF, unless a major mutation happens this flu will not be Spanish Flu v2.0. A lot of research needs to be done before there are even "true" fatality rate numbers so no one knows 100% if this is even more lethal than regular flu.
Currently what we know is it is spreading outside of the regular flu season, and it is appears to be causing fatalities amongst healthier people at a higher rate than regular flu, but the vast vast majority of cases are mild.

Posted: 6/10/2009 2:24:56 AM EDT

[#20]

CDC flu statistics for the US, regular flu season should have been over 5 weeks ago:

Posted: 6/10/2009 3:24:08 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
I do find it interesting how long this bug is lasting.

Usually flu cases are down by now - the warm weather breaks down the cell walls and the virus can not survive for long.

Av.

It's all about viral load on the body. Influenza has a sort of half life when exposed to the elements. the outer protein shell breaks down and then the virus is destroyed. In cold, damp conditions more of it survives longer, couple that with more people close together inside and that is why we have flu season. During the course of exposure more virus is introduced into the body. Most people have some sort of partial imunity to season flu, so it takes a higher virul load to get someone sick.

When a novel strain emerges, little to no-one has any partial immunity, so it spreads in the summer, hot, dry conditions because even though it breaks down in the environment, because there is no partial immunity, it takes very little in the body to produce illness. There is always flu virus in the envirement. However in the summer months, the viral load is very small, much less on door knobs etc over the course of time, ussually not enough to get sick from with partial immunity. With a novel virus, the vial load tneeded o produce illness is much less and therfore people get sick and it spreads during the non-flu season.

If this virus is still around, and it will be, come late October when the flu season starts again, it will probably explode in transmission and cases because there will be much much more surviving longer in the environment and when somebody is exposed, the viral load will be much greater and will cause more severe illness. If it has enough time to fully adapt to the human host it could be much deadlier. Combine that with a higher transmission rate due to higher viral load and we may see many more severe cases and much higher death rate.

Posted: 6/10/2009 3:50:33 AM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:
CDC flu statistics for the US, regular flu season should have been over 5 weeks ago:

So should have winter but it snowed here last weekend.

Posted: 6/10/2009 4:14:40 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:

Quoted:

CDC flu statistics for the US, regular flu season should have been over 5 weeks ago:

So should have winter but it snowed here last weekend.

very good point

Posted: 6/10/2009 4:37:47 AM EDT

[#24]

Quoted:

Quoted:
CDC flu statistics for the US, regular flu season should have been over 5 weeks ago:

So should have winter but it snowed here last weekend.

very good point

Couple of points.

1. (copy/paste) It is possible to get the flu in summer under certain circumstances. First, occasional cases and even outbreaks do occur in warmer times of the year, though they are unusual.(so it's not like it has NEVER happened before)

2. Group travel, such as on a cruise ship, often brings together people from all parts of the world, some of whom may harboring flu virus acquired during a winter outbreak at home. For example, if someone from Australia travels to Europe on a cruise in July, he may carry the influenza virus and infect people on the ship, leading to an outbreak. (do people travel more - obviously)

Posted: 6/10/2009 7:32:03 AM EDT

[#25]

Rumor is that World Health Organization is going to raise the level to level 6.

Posted: 6/11/2009 6:18:46 AM EDT

[#26]

It's official. OMG Pandemic level 6!!!!
(don't panic, it is still relatively mild, the only reason for going to 6 is that it was just spreading quickly in North America but now it is also spreading quickly in other continents (Australia and Chile have both had over 1000 confirmed cases each in the last few days))
Australia has gone from 1 case on May 20th to 1224 yesterday

Chile has gone from 5 cases on May 20th to 1694 yesterday

UK has gone from 106 cases on May 20th to 666 yesterday

Posted: 6/11/2009 6:34:03 AM EDT

[#27]

The World Health Organization raised the flu alert Thursday to its
highest level, saying H1N1 has spread to enough countries to be
considered a global pandemic.

Increasing the alert to Level 6 does not mean that the disease is
deadlier or more dangerous, just that it has spread to more countries,
the WHO said.

As of Wednesday evening, the virus, also known as swine flu, had
spread to 72 countries, the health agency said. There were 25,288
confirmed cases and 139 deaths. The United States had 13,217 cases and
27 deaths, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday
of last week.

Posted: 6/11/2009 7:04:57 AM EDT

[#28]

Nothing about the ship?

This place is slipping.

I heard one of the Navy's ships has a veritable shitload of cases onboard, came here figuring it would have been discussed.

Carry on.

Posted: 6/11/2009 7:28:02 AM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:

Nothing about the ship?

This place is slipping.

I heard one of the Navy's ships has a veritable shitload of cases onboard, came here figuring it would have been discussed.

Carry on.

Looks up 12 or 13 posts. USS Iwo Jima, 21 sailors picked up swine flu (plus probably assorted STDs

) during Fleet Week in New York.

Posted: 6/11/2009 9:51:04 AM EDT

[#30]

Interesting how ARoptics totally cowarded out of this thread.

AR? You there? How are those flu deaths coming?

What are you going to pimp this summer? Acid rain? Oh wait, that's been done.

Posted: 6/11/2009 10:05:25 AM EDT

[#31]

Going to Level 6 at a time when the spread should have subsided (summer months for the northern hemisphere) is significant. Increased transmission is expected under conditions of maximal crowding (minimal social distancing) and lower fresh-air dilution (cooped up)

A summer bump is, however, not without precedent:

Bigger question might be: 'If there is widespread flu in the US, how will Rahm use it to the administration's advantage?'

Posted: 6/11/2009 10:20:18 AM EDT

[#32]

Quoted:
Going to Level 6 at a time when the spread should have subsided (summer months for the northern hemisphere) is significant. Increased transmission is expected under conditions of maximal crowding (minimal social distancing) and lower fresh-air dilution (cooped up)

A summer bump is, however, not without precedent:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9a/1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

Bigger question might be: 'If there is widespread flu in the US, how will Rahm use it to the administration's advantage?'

Yes but most "officials" have already said this strain really lacks the design to turn into a killer such as the 1918 flu. It would take a lot things to go just right for this to go full blown SHTF killer. I know it "can" happen but lets sure hope not shall we???
Another thing to consider and has been mentioned already, in 1918 they didn't have a fraction of the meds and resources available that we do now. I doubt those numbers would hold up today.

Posted: 6/11/2009 10:29:47 AM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Going to Level 6 at a time when the spread should have subsided (summer months for the northern hemisphere) is significant. Increased transmission is expected under conditions of maximal crowding (minimal social distancing) and lower fresh-air dilution (cooped up)

A summer bump is, however, not without precedent:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9a/1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

Bigger question might be: 'If there is widespread flu in the US, how will Rahm use it to the administration's advantage?'

Yes but most "officials" have already said this strain really lacks the design to turn into a killer such as the 1918 flu. It would take a lot things to go just right for this to go full blown SHTF killer. I know it "can" happen but lets sure hope not shall we???
Another thing to consider and has been mentioned already, in 1918 they didn't have a fraction of the meds and resources available that we do now. I doubt those numbers would hold up today.

Not 'hoping' for a disaster, but the tremendous increase in global mobility and overall population counters the increased efficacy of meds. Indeed the overuse of medications (and the Chicoms are notorious for this) gives rise to resistant strains of both viruses and the bacterial infections that are often concomitant with severe influenza.

The incubation period for this particular strain is less than transit time from any corner of the world. Shedding can occur prior to symptomology.

Viruses mutate constantly, we know this. Most evolutions are dead ends. Large numbers of cases and an increased pool of potential hosts increases the number of mutations, and from that point on it is a statistical crapshoot as to whether or not a successful virulent variant emerges.

In simpler terms: the conditions are right, and it now boils down to chance.

Posted: 6/11/2009 10:46:25 AM EDT

[#34]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Going to Level 6 at a time when the spread should have subsided (summer months for the northern hemisphere) is significant. Increased transmission is expected under conditions of maximal crowding (minimal social distancing) and lower fresh-air dilution (cooped up)

A summer bump is, however, not without precedent:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9a/1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

Bigger question might be: 'If there is widespread flu in the US, how will Rahm use it to the administration's advantage?'

Yes but most "officials" have already said this strain really lacks the design to turn into a killer such as the 1918 flu. It would take a lot things to go just right for this to go full blown SHTF killer. I know it "can" happen but lets sure hope not shall we???
Another thing to consider and has been mentioned already, in 1918 they didn't have a fraction of the meds and resources available that we do now. I doubt those numbers would hold up today.

Not 'hoping' for a disaster, but the tremendous increase in global mobility and overall population counters the increased efficacy of meds. Indeed the overuse of medications (and the Chicoms are notorious for this) gives rise to resistant strains of both viruses and the bacterial infections that are often concomitant with severe influenza.

The incubation period for this particular strain is less than transit time from any corner of the world. Shedding can occur prior to symptomology.

Viruses mutate constantly, we know this. Most evolutions are dead ends. Large numbers of cases and an increased pool of potential hosts increases the number of mutations, and from that point on it is a statistical crapshoot as to whether or not a successful virulent variant emerges.

In simpler terms: the conditions are right, and it now boils down to chance.

Conditions are right for one aspect of the transformation from mild to killer strain -lots of hosts. You still have a virus that lacks the fundamental makeup to go that route.

Posted: 6/11/2009 10:53:17 AM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:
http://www.who.int/entity/csr/don/Map_20090608_0800.png

We're turning Japanese!

Posted: 6/11/2009 12:33:31 PM EDT

[#36]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Going to Level 6 at a time when the spread should have subsided (summer months for the northern hemisphere) is significant. Increased transmission is expected under conditions of maximal crowding (minimal social distancing) and lower fresh-air dilution (cooped up)

A summer bump is, however, not without precedent:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9a/1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

Bigger question might be: 'If there is widespread flu in the US, how will Rahm use it to the administration's advantage?'

Yes but most "officials" have already said this strain really lacks the design to turn into a killer such as the 1918 flu. It would take a lot things to go just right for this to go full blown SHTF killer. I know it "can" happen but lets sure hope not shall we???
Another thing to consider and has been mentioned already, in 1918 they didn't have a fraction of the meds and resources available that we do now. I doubt those numbers would hold up today.

Not 'hoping' for a disaster, but the tremendous increase in global mobility and overall population counters the increased efficacy of meds. Indeed the overuse of medications (and the Chicoms are notorious for this) gives rise to resistant strains of both viruses and the bacterial infections that are often concomitant with severe influenza.

The incubation period for this particular strain is less than transit time from any corner of the world. Shedding can occur prior to symptomology.

Viruses mutate constantly, we know this. Most evolutions are dead ends. Large numbers of cases and an increased pool of potential hosts increases the number of mutations, and from that point on it is a statistical crapshoot as to whether or not a successful virulent variant emerges.

In simpler terms: the conditions are right, and it now boils down to chance.

Conditions are right for one aspect of the transformation from mild to killer strain -lots of hosts. You still have a virus that lacks the fundamental makeup to go that route.

Please expound.

11 June 2009 –– As of 14:00 GMT, 11 June 2009, 74 countries have officially reported 28,774 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 144 deaths.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_06_11/en/index.html

Mild initial waves have often preceeded severe subsequent waves.

http://content.nejm.org/content/vol0/issue2009/images/large/NEJMp0903906f1.jpeg

Absent current medical tx, morbidity & mortality would be far higher. If we have reduced mortality by an order of magnitude, comparable successive waves would still have enormous impact.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0903906

Posted: 6/11/2009 5:40:27 PM EDT

[#37]

Quoted:
Going to Level 6 at a time when the spread should have subsided (summer months for the northern hemisphere) is significant. Increased transmission is expected under conditions of maximal crowding (minimal social distancing) and lower fresh-air dilution (cooped up)

A summer bump is, however, not without precedent:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9a/1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

Bigger question might be: 'If there is widespread flu in the US, how will Rahm use it to the administration's advantage?'

This was explained. It is because it is a new strain (completely new) and most people don't have ANY defense to it. Thus they get sick from it at a MUCH lower level of infection. Doesn't mean it is deadly, just that it is new. In a few years this strain and others close to it, won't make many people sick anymore.

Posted: 6/12/2009 1:21:11 AM EDT

[#38]

NH cuts back on swine flu testing

CONCORD
(AP) — New Hampshire's Public Health Department is cutting the number
of tests it will perform to confirm the H1N1 swine flu.

From now on, the state will test only people who are
hospitalized with respiratory illness, health care workers with
flu-like symptoms who provide direct care, and in cases such as
outbreaks at schools or group settings.

Public Health Director Dr. Jose Montero said there is
plenty of evidence the flu has hit throughout the state and country, so
continued testing for individual cases wouldn't help determine
recommendations for treatment, prevention or disease control.

Posted: 6/12/2009 4:54:51 AM EDT

[#39]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Going to Level 6 at a time when the spread should have subsided (summer months for the northern hemisphere) is significant. Increased transmission is expected under conditions of maximal crowding (minimal social distancing) and lower fresh-air dilution (cooped up)

A summer bump is, however, not without precedent:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9a/1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

Bigger question might be: 'If there is widespread flu in the US, how will Rahm use it to the administration's advantage?'

Yes but most "officials" have already said this strain really lacks the design to turn into a killer such as the 1918 flu. It would take a lot things to go just right for this to go full blown SHTF killer. I know it "can" happen but lets sure hope not shall we???
Another thing to consider and has been mentioned already, in 1918 they didn't have a fraction of the meds and resources available that we do now. I doubt those numbers would hold up today.

Not 'hoping' for a disaster, but the tremendous increase in global mobility and overall population counters the increased efficacy of meds. Indeed the overuse of medications (and the Chicoms are notorious for this) gives rise to resistant strains of both viruses and the bacterial infections that are often concomitant with severe influenza.

The incubation period for this particular strain is less than transit time from any corner of the world. Shedding can occur prior to symptomology.

Viruses mutate constantly, we know this. Most evolutions are dead ends. Large numbers of cases and an increased pool of potential hosts increases the number of mutations, and from that point on it is a statistical crapshoot as to whether or not a successful virulent variant emerges.

In simpler terms: the conditions are right, and it now boils down to chance.

Conditions are right for one aspect of the transformation from mild to killer strain -lots of hosts. You still have a virus that lacks the fundamental makeup to go that route.

Please expound.

11 June 2009 –– As of 14:00 GMT, 11 June 2009, 74 countries have officially reported 28,774 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 144 deaths.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_06_11/en/index.html

Mild initial waves have often preceeded severe subsequent waves.

http://content.nejm.org/content/vol0/issue2009/images/large/NEJMp0903906f1.jpeg

Absent current medical tx, morbidity & mortality would be far higher. If we have reduced mortality by an order of magnitude, comparable successive waves would still have enormous impact.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0903906

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090611/hl_afp/healthflupandemic

Posted: 6/17/2009 5:05:09 AM EDT

[#40]

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20090616TDY03103.htm

New flu strain 'has mutated, become more infectious'

The Yomiuri Shimbun
The new strain of influenza appears to have mutated to become more
infectious for humans, the online edition of science magazine Nature
reported Monday, referencing research by a team including Prof.
Yoshihiro Kawaoka of Tokyo University's Institute of Medical Science.

The surface of influenza virus particles are covered with thorn-shaped
proteins called hemagglutinin (HA), which allows the virus to stick to
human cells.

After analyzing multiple samples of the new flu virus, the team
ascertained that in some cases the HA of the new H1N1 strain have
mutated, allowing the strain to stick to human cells more easily.

According to Kawaoka, the same mutations have been found in HA of the
H5N1 strain of influenza, the highly virulent bird flu, which kills
about 60 percent of those it infects. Kawaoka said the virus is still
in the process of mutating into a form even more infectious to humans.

(Jun. 16, 2009)

Posted: 6/19/2009 4:20:44 AM EDT

[#41]

Someone on another board has been tracking all the swine flu deaths reported in the US, his spreadsheet shows 108 deaths so far compared to the CDC who reported 44 deaths as of last Thursday (6/11).
http://tinyurl.com/h1n1USdeaths
The latest weekly CDC report should be out at 11am EST today, it will be interesting to see what their latest reported numbers are now.

Posted: 6/19/2009 4:36:02 AM EDT

[#42]

Quoted:
Someone on another board has been tracking all the swine flu deaths reported in the US, his spreadsheet shows 108 deaths so far compared to the CDC who reported 44 deaths as of last Thursday (6/11).

http://tinyurl.com/h1n1USdeaths

The latest weekly CDC report should be out at 11am EST today, it will be interesting to see what their latest reported numbers are now.

i haven't look at that but my guess is the cdc list is deaths actually attributed to the flu vs deaths of people already compromised by other health issues.

Posted: 6/19/2009 4:45:04 AM EDT

[#43]

My wife knows someone with a confirmed case of the virus.

Posted: 6/19/2009 4:48:17 AM EDT

[#44]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Someone on another board has been tracking all the swine flu deaths reported in the US, his spreadsheet shows 108 deaths so far compared to the CDC who reported 44 deaths as of last Thursday (6/11).

http://tinyurl.com/h1n1USdeaths

The latest weekly CDC report should be out at 11am EST today, it will be interesting to see what their latest reported numbers are now.

i haven't look at that but my guess is the cdc list is deaths actually attributed to the flu vs deaths of people already compromised by other health issues.

I think (but I'm not sure) that the CDC includes the people with "underlying medical conditions", their numbers just run behind because they are only reporting once a week and they are basing the numbers on confirmed cases reported to them by the various State health departments:

for example the CDC's latest report has 1160 cases in New York state but the NY state health departments latest figures show 1709 cases, the CDC is reporting 13 deaths in all of New York State but New York (city) health officials updated their web site on Wednesday to show 23 confirmed deaths in the city.

Again, not a point of concern or panic, just sharing the latest numbers. As the Northeast warms up from the unseasonably cold spring the number of new cases should drop a lot and the only concern to watch out for are signs of mutation before and during the fall when the flu numbers start creeping up again.

Posted: 6/19/2009 9:13:35 AM EDT

[#45]

Quoted:

Someone on another board has been tracking all the swine flu deaths reported in the US, his spreadsheet shows 108 deaths so far compared to the CDC who reported 44 deaths as of last Thursday (6/11).

http://tinyurl.com/h1n1USdeaths

The latest weekly CDC report should be out at 11am EST today, it will be interesting to see what their latest reported numbers are now.

The 11am CDC numbers are now out and the number of official H1N1 US deaths doubled in the past week from 44 to 87.

The number of confirmed cases of swine flu in the US increased from 17,855 to 21,447.

While those numbers indicate a fatality rate of 0.4% (1 in 250) in the US the true fatality rate is a lot lower as many people with H1N1 aren't sick enough to be tested. The CDC estimates more than 100,000 have H1N1 with most cases being mild and that in the hardest hit areas around 7% of people have H1N1.