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Posted: 10/26/2004 4:27:40 AM EDT
 Kerry 247 Bush 285 There are some stronger Florida numbers out there for Bush, but it seems the national consensus that Florida and Ohio are in our columns at this time.
Well real good news here, Zogby shows Bush still up by three... which means because this is a rolling average of three days and yesterday he had Bush up three from a previous up two... Bush is more than three points ahead to keep it at three for a second. The important thing is this is a trend that has held through a weekend of polling and includes one day of weekday numbers... so I'm expecting if this trend continues seeing Bush up 4 tomorrow if that bullshit NYT's story doesn't have legs. Hopefull the revelation that NBC was there with our troops will register. Iowa Political Futures  Tradesports  Anybody want to add other electoal maps... and not your projections, those actually out there, please feel free. The reason I ask you not to include your own is we all have great theories, but I don't want to put maps up of 45 states and maybe California if that isn't based on anything other than a hunch. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 4:28:28 AM EDT
[#1]
W00t If it stayed like that I would be very happy.
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Posted: 10/26/2004 4:31:41 AM EDT
[#2]
Good news.
I'm also glad to see that the sKerry camp officially gave up on Missouri AND the NBC story that our boys were at that Iraqi ammo storage facility AFTER the goods were looted. Any thoughts on AK? CMOS Edited to add - thanks for the good updates Hiram. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 4:33:51 AM EDT
[#3]
Thanks.
Hey what about that other map you usually post at the bottom? Didn't you say that he was better than the guy that does that map you have posted at the top? |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 4:42:15 AM EDT
[#4]
www.cleveland.com/newsflash/cleveland/index.ssf?/base/politics-
0/109859845912530.xml&storylist=cleveland The Columbus Dispatch endorses President Bush 10/24/2004, 1:00 a.m. ET The Associated Press COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — The Columbus Dispatch endorsed President Bush over Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry on Sunday, saying it was "less than enthused" about choosing between the two candidates because neither one had a stellar record. The newspaper said it strongly opposed Bush's decision to invade Iraq and that it has repeatedly criticized the incumbent's fiscal policy. But the paper said it believes Bush would be more successful than Kerry at pacifying Iraq. "A victory for Bush will signal to the world and terrorists that the United States is committed to victory in Iraq and Afghanistan," the newspaper said in an editorial. "A Kerry victory will send an ambiguous signal that may raise doubts about American staying power." The Dispatch also said that Bush would be more likely to reform Social Security and Medicare, which the paper said are the type of risky political moves that a first-term Kerry would avoid. "Bush has every reason to take on precisely this sort of challenge, especially if he hopes to ensure that history remembers him for something other than the Iraq mess," the newspaper said. It isn't "gung ho" Bush, but thought you would like too see a little formal support from Ohio for a change. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 4:50:05 AM EDT
[#5]
Please, Dear God, let it end like this!
I'll never view pr0n again. (Until well after the election.) Eric The(GiveMeAWeek)Hun 
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Posted: 10/26/2004 4:51:30 AM EDT
[#6]
I'm a little concerned about TradeSports....
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:02:11 AM EDT
[#7]
Yeah, really. What's up with that? 
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:06:47 AM EDT
[#8]
I think a good gesture to show that you are sincere would be to throw away all your pr0n. TO make sure it is disposed of properly you should send it all to me and I will make sure it doesn't get in some kids hands or the BFI mans hands. 
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:10:12 AM EDT
[#9]
Any Colorado members want to chime in as to what the problem is over there?
CO looks like an island of chaos in a sea of tranquility |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:13:35 AM EDT
[#10]
what about this one? It's from presidentelect.org and shows the following numbers:
Kerry = 272 Bush = 266   President Elect 2004 Electoral College Analysis (10/24/2004) President Elect's latest analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George W. Bush against the Democratic nominee, John Kerry, shows that if the election were today Bush would continue the trend of popular vote losing presidents failing to win a second term. President Elect predicts that John Kerry would win 272 electoral votes and President Bush would win 266 (Bush led 274-264 on 10/17/2004). CHANGES FROM LAST ANALYSIS: - IOWA (from LEANING KERRY to LEANING BUSH) - MAINE (from SOLID KERRY to LEANING KERRY) - NEVADA (from LEANING BUSH to SOLID BUSH) - NEW JERSEY (from LEANING KERRY to SOLID KERRY) - NEW MEXICO (from LEANING KERRY to LEANING BUSH) - OHIO (from LEANING BUSH to LEANING KERRY) QUICK NOTES: - For the first time since the start of the 2004 analysis Kerry has taken the lead. - Nevada and New Jersey seem to be falling into each candidates' camp solidly. - Last week I said "Wisconsin seems to be falling into Kerry's hands and will probably stay there for good". I may have to eat those words when the next analysis comes out! - With things still this volitale 9 days before the election, the presidency is up for grabs. - This map will be updated on: October 27 and November 1 |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:16:09 AM EDT
[#11]
California.
 more..  This is the Rasmussen poll. Even if GWB doesn't win California this year, it is still a good trend. Sgatr15 PS Oh yeah....45 States and maybe California....BUT YOU MUST GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!! |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:19:14 AM EDT
[#12]
and I noticed Illinois changed to "weak Kerry"....Hmmmm
Still think Oregon and Washington will go GWB. Sgatr15 |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:21:56 AM EDT
[#13]
Here is one from Election Projection
Current Tally - 10/24/04 2000 Adjustment: Bush +2.0% EV's: Bush 296, Kerry 242 Pct: Bush 49.9%, Kerry 48.3% This site keeps a running projection for the 2004 US Presidential Election. Using the most recent polling data, state-by-state voting totals from 2000 will be updated to project a 2004 outcome. 
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:24:55 AM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:29:38 AM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:31:47 AM EDT
[#16]
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:37:46 AM EDT
[#17]
Well, not quite. Even with California for Bush, that map still has 7 states, and DC, for Kerry. Sgtar needs to lower the dose on his meds. 
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:39:55 AM EDT
[#18]
You need to stop obsessing about these polls. Polls like this are not accurate enough to guess the outcome of the election unless it is a landslide and it is not going to be a landslide.
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:47:05 AM EDT
[#19]
Smart move, we don't want him here. If it weren't for St. Louis it wouldn't have been a "battlefield" to begin with. Aside from a few lesbian twits in my neighbrhood, the vast majority are Bush supporters. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:48:48 AM EDT
[#20]
Sure. Denver is the problem. The rest of the state is conservative for the most part, but Denver (and Boulder)...  Still, I'd be surprised if Kerry wins Colorado. Even the left-leaning Denver Post has endorsed Bush (albeit for their own CYA policy more than anything else). |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:55:02 AM EDT
[#21]
Bush will take Colorado, I don't believe it is as close as the polls would have you think.
Kerry's camp has pulled funding for commercials out of Colorado, and Bush just stopped by Greeley yesterday. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 5:57:49 AM EDT
[#22]
Regarding tradesports, they have already had one "scandal" where a buyer bought up huge chunks of Bush futures and then dumped them to cause a plummet. As pointed out by I believe Raven, there is no limit as to how many futures you can buy at Tradesports meaning if you have enough money you can manipulate it and it wouldn't take much... I believe the sell-off that caused the drop before was in the tens of thousands of dollars - not a big stretch for somebody like Soros. There is also something called profit taking. In essence with all the polls trending Bush, people want to buy Bush futures. Others who bought them lower are willing to sell them off, take the profit, wait for the drop off in price that results from a sell off and then buy again at a lower price. There may well be some profit taking at play. In any event, the Iowa Political Futures Market limits people to a max of $500 in futures, therefore very difficult to manipulate... and it has been showing Bush steady in the .58 to .60 range,
As for why the other map is not there, it was not up when I posted this morning. The swings between maps are the result of which polls you are looking at and how old they are. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 6:00:21 AM EDT
[#23]
I don't see how Kerry is leading in NH. I was there 2 weeks ago and didn't see a single Kerry sign for 3 days.
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Posted: 10/26/2004 6:27:45 AM EDT
[#24]
Bippity... boppity... bump.
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Posted: 10/26/2004 6:36:11 AM EDT
[#25]
Michigan should not be a blue state. At the very worst it might be a blue outline.
The Detroit News is showing Bush with a 4% lead in Michigan, and the Detroit Free Press is showing Kerry with a 1% lead in Michigan. It is by no means "firmly in Kerry's grasp". He actually had to come back here yesterday (3 blocks from my house) to try and shore up support. The President is coming to the Silverdome (seats 80,000) on Wednesday. Michigan is still a Battleground state, and Kerry may very well lose here! |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 6:38:51 AM EDT
[#26]
HR will you be running election central on Arfcom on Election night?
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Posted: 10/26/2004 6:41:36 AM EDT
[#27]
Texas, likely not. I have to secure an election site from 5:00 am until sometime around 10:00-11:00 pm and will then likely have to go to party headquarters. I'm actually looking to set up a group of folks here who can send me text messages during the day with updates since I won't have web access and will be too busy to make calls for updates... I'll really need you folks to be feeding me information. If you guys can feed me details during the day, when things are slow enough during the day I'll go through it and give you some feedback. Best I can do while holding down a polling place as a state inspector.
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Posted: 10/26/2004 6:47:16 AM EDT
[#28]
President Bush will take AR and CO (the newbie at EV just ignores all the other poll numbers from those states). that will give him 300 exactly. I also think one of the following 3 will go to the President: MN, MI, or PA. That would push Bush into the landslide area
 I cannot believe we are leading in Hawaii! 
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Posted: 10/26/2004 6:48:07 AM EDT
[#29]
Damn Minnesota, makes me ashamed to live here
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Posted: 10/26/2004 6:57:48 AM EDT
[#30]
Bump...
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Posted: 10/26/2004 8:03:05 AM EDT
[#31]
The Electoral-Vote.com guy is crazy if he thinks Kerry is taking either Colorado or Arkansas. I don't think the Kerry campaign abandoned Colorado because it was so confident of a win that they didn't feel the need to fight anymore.
It looks to be shaping up for a serious ass-spanking of the Dems. They could very well lose six seats in the House, another three in the Senate AND lose the White House as well. Of course with the margins so close in all of those races, all it will take to completely reverse that is people being apathetic about the election. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 8:29:20 AM EDT
[#32]
Are there any exit poll results from early voting? Curious as to wether early voters are most likely Dems or Reps.
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Posted: 10/26/2004 8:34:07 AM EDT
[#33]
No, there would be holy hell to pay for that... what we know are that dems seem to be leading in the turn-out for early voting... doesn't surprise me, trying to get their people to the polls before Kerry starts to nose-dive at the end of this week which could lower turn-out... plus expect a rush of people on election day trying to vote again with provisional ballots in the wrong districts. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 8:38:01 AM EDT
[#34]
I have faith in this for some reason:
www.weeklyreader.com/election_vote.asp "...Since 1956, Weekly Reader students in grades 1-12 have correctly picked the president, making the Weekly Reader poll one of the most accurate predictors of presidential outcomes in history. President Bush was a strong winner in the student poll; the only state Senator Kerry won was Maryland. Senator Kerry was also in a statistical dead heat with President Bush in New York, Massachusetts, Washington, D.C. and Vermont. President Bush won most grades, although Senator Kerry did win among tenth-graders. ..." |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 8:38:47 AM EDT
[#35]
The early voting is misleading.
It's as though all of the hardcore types come out, and come out early. So what? It's not as though they can vote again (oh, they'll try). It's a drop in the ocean compared to Election Day. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 8:49:30 AM EDT
[#36]
Good catch, I hadn't notice that left-leaning Democratically controlled HI is in GWB Jr's column. That is good news indeed. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 9:02:00 AM EDT
[#37]
RealClearPolitics.com Historical Aggrigate (eg average of all polls):
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Posted: 10/26/2004 9:06:24 AM EDT
[#38]
So, how does this all change when the military personnel vote is counted (maybe I should have said "if")?
CW |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 9:07:26 AM EDT
[#39]
None of the active deployed troops are being polled, nor the contractors in Iraq... I would imagine that goes 75-80% for Bush.
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Posted: 10/26/2004 9:10:18 AM EDT
[#40]
Funny nowadays, with internet technology, there would be no reason why those folks can't vote with the rest of us. Since we can get real-time AARs from Iraq/Afghanistan on this forum, they sure can set it up there the soldiers can vote. There is no reason for the paper absentee ballots that we see today. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 9:13:05 AM EDT
[#41]
Every unit has an officer assigned to assist the men and women obtain absentee ballots and ensure that they are received in time. THIS administration has not sought to disenfranchise our fighting men and women like Clinton/Gore did... what scares me is cocksuckers like Ed Randall who came right out and said they would try to disqualify any military ballot received after 11-2... excuse-fucking-me... the law says postmarked, not received you Clinton Cunt-lapping Whore! |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 11:27:07 AM EDT
[#42]
Actually, what I was after was this: does anyone know or want to venture a guess if the military vote would tip the scales in the swing states (or any other state for that matter)? CW |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 11:38:13 AM EDT
[#43]
A lot of military personnel decide their state of residence for income tax purposes. I believe Florida is favorable in that regard. A good number of military personnel have Florida as their address of record and do vote there... remember, when you are talking about thousands of military ballots that break 3 or 4 to 1, in a state that went Bush with less than 1,000 votes last time, you bet it can make a difference!
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Posted: 10/26/2004 2:20:35 PM EDT
[#44]
 Rederal Review's election simulation gives these results. Probability of Winning Bush 75.9% Kerry 22.8% |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 2:28:33 PM EDT
[#45]
I am offended to see Mississippi in pink. there is no way in hell would that state go Dem.
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Posted: 10/26/2004 3:36:16 PM EDT
[#46]
Might as well throw my 2 cents in on this one.
I have a feeling that this election will be more of a victory for Bush than most people think. I live in the VERY Liberal NE part of PA. The election of 2000 saw this area around 70% Dem. Never saw many Bush/Cheney signs during that election. Now fast forward to this year, and man are there Bush/Cheney signs around town. I would say there are 3 Bush/Cheney signs for every Kerry/Edwards sign around here. Back in Sept, Bush came to town for a rally and over 10,000 people showed up. Granted that some of those people came from over an hour away, but that is still astounding for this area. Kerry came to Scranton and I think around 3,000 people showed up, then Edwards came to Wilkes Barre and had 3,000 people show up. More than likely the same people showed up at both events. So in this area with those kind of numbers, I Bush has a good chance of winning PA altogether. I think Bush will win with 58%+ in the popular vote, and around 300 in electoral votes, give or take 5 either way. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 3:39:44 PM EDT
[#47]
If Bush gets 58% of the popular vote, then it is not likely given the current electorate that Kerry will get more than 100 EVs. Not that I don't wish it would happen... |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 3:45:43 PM EDT
[#48]
I was scanning through DU a bit ago and they had a thread or response in a thread that said the Rep had 100,000 more new registered voters than the dems did. Thats good news. You here all of this talk about new voter registration and the dems are spinning it as proof that people want Bush gone. I guess it doesn't occur to them that just as many and in the case of PA more want Bush to stay. |
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Posted: 10/26/2004 3:50:20 PM EDT
[#49]
The dims seem to forget we've had an active registration for four years... not four months... Our folks also voted in the 2002 elections which is one of the reason there was such a Republican surge. that year. We know our people will show up... will their's?
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Posted: 10/26/2004 3:54:59 PM EDT
[#50]
Hopefully, in the end, Kerry ends up as forgotten as Michael Dukakis did.............another Massachusetts liberal, retired, with no life.
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