Good News... Kerry all but conceeds Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri to Bush!!!

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Good News... Kerry all but conceeds Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri to Bush!!!

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:50:09 PM EDT

www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1224331/posts?page=26

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.

The decision to shrink his political playing field reduces Kerry's strategic options -- at least for now -- in the homestretch of the campaign. George W. Bush won all four states in 2000, and Kerry can't win the White House without taking a state or two from the Republican incumbent.

While pulling back from some states that Bush carried, Kerry is still strongly competing in several GOP-leaning battlegrounds, including Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Ads were scheduled to begin airing Oct. 5 in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri as part of a $5 million investment through Nov. 2, but campaign advisers concluded Kerry isn't doing well enough in the states to justify the cost.

The campaign, which has reserved commercial time in 20 states through Election Day, notified television stations in the four states that Kerry would not follow through on his plans for the first week of October.

Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Arizona, Arkansas and Louisiana are unlikely to see Kerry ads unless there is a major shift in the campaign's dynamics. Missouri is still the subject of debate inside the campaign, with some advisers pushing to advertise in the traditional swing state.

With its burgeoning exurbs and rural areas turning more Republican every day, Missouri cannot be won by Kerry in a close race, some advisers have concluded. But some think it's important for the Democrat to spend money there, forcing President Bush to defend the GOP turf.

Bush and the Republican National Committee have been advertising moderately in Arizona and Missouri. With Kerry chased from those states, Bush can shift their budgets -- $330,000 this week alone -- to states that Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore won four years ago.

Kerry spent about $15 million in the four states, half of it in Missouri, trying to put them in play. It was part of a strategy to stretch the battlefield into GOP territory, from Virginia and North Carolina in the South to Arizona in the Southwest and Nevada in the West.

Constantly shifting their strategies, both campaigns recently increased their ad budgets in West Virginia and Colorado. Bush has boosted his ads in Minnesota, Maine and Oregon -- all states won by Gore that Kerry can't afford to lose.

Ohio and Florida, with a combined 47 electoral votes, offer Kerry his best hope of claiming territory won by Bush in 2000. After that, the options dwindle to a few small states: New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia and Colorado.

Kerry ads are running in 14 of the 20 states in which he reserved commercial time. His schedule calls for ads to begin airing next month in Washington state and North Carolina.

Because of population shifts since 2000 that favor Republicans, Kerry could win every state taken by Gore in 2000 and would have just 260 electoral votes, 10 short of winning the presidency. Gore lost to Bush by five electoral votes, 271-267.

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:50:51 PM EDT

[#1]

Good news for freedom.

It would be nice to see him piss away that money in those states though. He'll just spend it on the bttleground ones now. But he's gonna lose those too

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:51:17 PM EDT

[#2]

"Hey Kerry get the hell out of here, we dont want ya"

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:53:22 PM EDT

[#3]

Thats a good one.

Who is going to sat the SgtAr15 line?

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:53:35 PM EDT

[#4]

Missouri is no longer a battleground state.

Woot!

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:55:05 PM EDT

[#5]

Quoted:
Thats a good one.

Who is going to sat the SgtAr15 line?

45 states and maybe California.

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:55:51 PM EDT

[#6]

"Hey Kerry I have a idea save your god damn money and concede the whole election"

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:56:08 PM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:
Missouri is no longer a battleground state.

Woot!

For about 105 years, as Missouri goes so goes the nation. There have been two exceptions to that rule in all that time. It's as close to an indicator of who will win the presidency as you can get.

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:57:04 PM EDT

[#8]

I can see Karl Rove kicking back with a glass of Scotch and a Cuban cigar . . .

"I love it when a plan comes together"

_Disconnector_

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:57:34 PM EDT

[#9]

I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:58:13 PM EDT

[#10]

I can't wait for this election to be over...you guys in non battleground states have no idea how many ads we have to put up with...

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:58:28 PM EDT

[#11]

Arizona was NEVER a battleground state!

Unless you believe C......BS

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:58:29 PM EDT

[#12]

Quoted:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state

It could be worse, look at where I live!

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:58:36 PM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state

just be glad you dont live in Cali

Posted: 9/22/2004 8:59:29 PM EDT

[#14]

It would be nice if Zogby got up to speed on what even Kerry realizes... www.electoral-vote.com

Posted: 9/22/2004 9:40:00 PM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:
Arizona was NEVER a battleground state!

Unless you believe C......BS

I dunno, look at our bull-dyke governor.

Posted: 9/22/2004 9:57:05 PM EDT

[#16]

WHOOOHOOOO!!!!!

Ok, I've got that out of my system now.

But damn this is good news.....it means I don't have to listen to as many farking kerry kommertials.

Interesting bit of trivia about missouri being an indicator....where'd you find that one at? (I'd like to do a bit more reading just because its kind of interesting to me)

Posted: 9/22/2004 10:24:14 PM EDT

[#17]

want to see a better map go here I love that color

Posted: 9/22/2004 10:46:00 PM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state

It could be worse, look at where I live!

Hell, that's nothing. Look where I live!

CW

Posted: 9/22/2004 11:23:06 PM EDT

[#19]

Kerry is an unmitigated disaster. It will be a shocking landslide win for Bush. Kerry (Herrman Munster) will forever be the poster boy for how NOT to run a campaign. It is astonishing to see the reckless positions this man takes and all the while hoping to win. Gore was genius compared to this assclown from Massachusetts. That Heinz ketchup lady is a piece of work too.
Nobody wants The Herrman.

Posted: 9/22/2004 11:55:03 PM EDT

[#20]

Its a ridiculous thought that an assclown on the level of John Kerry is even in the race, but I expected Bush Sr to beat Clinton no prob. I am much more politically intune now.

Interesting fact about MO. I fucking hate StLouis, and would just as soon give it all to Illinois, hell they are up to their pie holes in liberal assholes anyway. Here in Springfield you have to go to campus to find the real libs, otherwise even most "democrats" are pretty conservative.

Glad to see that Kerry is on the ropes, no one give up though! Do not let this idiot come close! If we get a draft in Febuary, I want Bush in charge! (Do not turn this thread into a draft debate)

Posted: 9/22/2004 11:58:58 PM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state

It could be worse, look at where I live!

Hell, that's nothing. Look where I live!

CW

Run Forrest Run!!!!

Posted: 9/23/2004 12:43:25 AM EDT

[#22]

I am predicting GW will take WA.

Sgtar may be right.

Posted: 9/23/2004 12:46:39 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:
I am predicting GW will take WA.

Sgtar may be right.

I would be surprised, but I won't discount the possiblilty. Kerry's campaign is run every bit as poorly as Gore's was, but W has a good campaign going.

Posted: 9/23/2004 12:47:01 AM EDT

[#24]

Quoted:
I am predicting GW will take WA.

Sgtar may be right.

How confident are you? Portland follows Seattle. I'm in Portland.

I hope you're right!

Posted: 9/23/2004 12:56:44 AM EDT

[#25]

All of WA is conservative except Greater King County (Seattle) Metro area.

As Busmaster has already reported, there are GW stickers everywhere. The other day I was on I-5, in the city limits, and there were 4 cars, side by side with GW stickers. Plus mine (thanks Sniper Wolfe!).

GW takes the rest of the state plus 30+% of the liberal section= 11 electorial votes GWB!

4 MORE YEARS!!!!

Oh yeah, my liberal democrat brother-in-law (Seattle) is voting Bush! "Homeland security is job one, and Kerry cant get the job done". I was like

. I made him say it again.

Posted: 9/23/2004 1:05:23 AM EDT

[#26]

... Good!

... Maybe next week I should "vacation" in California

Posted: 9/23/2004 5:12:02 AM EDT

[#27]

We need to compete against Kerry in places like NJ and CT--that would really get his attention!

GunLvr

Posted: 9/23/2004 5:18:16 AM EDT

[#28]

Not that I put much weight into polls, it looks like Wisconsin might be his as well:

www.jsonline.com/graphics/news/img/sep04/badger092304.gif

Been a long time since this state went to a republican.

(I think it's got a lot to do with Kerry's "Lambert Field" comment"

Posted: 9/23/2004 5:28:03 AM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm almost ashamed to be a Missourian when so many Democrats inhabit my state

just be glad you dont live in Cali

Or Michigan.

Posted: 9/23/2004 5:34:02 AM EDT

[#30]

The AOL STRAW POLL, is that right or did somebody play with it?

Posted: 9/23/2004 5:36:09 AM EDT

[#31]

Quoted:
I am predicting GW will take WA.

Sgtar may be right.

I hope you are right brother!

Before Dubya was elected Governor we had the worst Governor in the history of the great State of Texas.

That would be the infamous Ann Richards.

Maybe this will be the election that all those Blue States turn Red!

BigDozer66

Posted: 9/23/2004 5:40:33 AM EDT

[#32]

Quoted:
Not that I put much weight into polls, it looks like Wisconsin might be his as well:

www.jsonline.com/graphics/news/img/sep04/badger092304.gif

Been a long time since this state went to a republican.

(I think it's got a lot to do with Kerry's "Lambert Field" comment"

[sKerry]Man I just love to see those Packers when they do the 'Lambert Leap'![/sKerry]

Bwahaha!