WTH is going on in Louisville

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - WTH is going on in Louisville (Page 1 of 5)

Posted: 2/9/2015 4:44:55 PM EDT

Big heroin and meth busts, 700% of last year's YTD murder rate, "teenagers" shooting at the police as they respond to medical calls.

While the traditional shit holes are still rife with trash being trash, not only does the crime look like it's increasing it looks and sounds like it is seeping out into surrounding areas and turning previously decent neighborhoods into ghettos.

After the big ruckus at the waterfront last year, there were rumors of an unofficial dictate for the LMPD to cover up crime in the city, but it sounded like it was for "minor" crimes, not stuff like this. It can't just be better reporting and coverage, can it?

ETA: Body Count as of 2/26 - 21. Added the 4 new ones. Don't know if I missed any.
Lost track of how that compares with the YTD numbers from last year, but they're staying ahead of the 2/wk average despite single digit/sub-zero temps and piles of snow.

Posted: 2/9/2015 5:38:52 PM EDT

[#1]

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Big heroin and meth busts, 700% of last year's YTD murder rate, "teenagers" shooting at the police as they respond to medical calls (for other shootings/murders).

While the traditional shit holes are still rife with trash being trash, not only does the crime look like it's increasing it looks and sounds like it is seeping out into surrounding areas and turning previously decent neighborhoods into ghettos.

After the big ruckus at the waterfront last year, there were rumors of an unofficial dictate for the LMPD to cover up crime in the city, but it sounded like it was for "minor" crimes, not stuff like this. It can't just be better reporting and coverage, can it?

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Can you cite your source? I'm curious what the numbers actually are.

I am always skeptical of numbers like "700%". Does that mean we went from one murder to seven or seven to forty-nine? Not trying to pick on you, I've just seen numbers lie so many times that I'm paranoid!

The metric I use for my personal risk around town are the LMPD weekly police reports for my district. You can see how crime changes as it gets cold (warm up cars stolen or stolen from), as it gets warm (screen door left open), as school is out etc. You can also see neighborhood by neighborhood where the trouble is.

LMPD has a mapping tool also, I'll dig up a link later.

You are right that it could be reporting, both in the news media and the official numbers. If you get a doper off the street for dealing but he was behind a string of burglaries the numbers can change depending on what they actually bust him for, It might not be a conspiracy but its worth understanding where the data comes from. The media likes to adjust things for better headlines.

Posted: 2/9/2015 6:21:32 PM EDT

[#2]

The numbers aren't rocket surgery. It's the start of February and, at this time last year we had 2 murders. This year it's 14. 14 is 7x (aka 700%) of 2. I admit that I did use 700% because it sounds better. It's certainly better than a 7-to-49 increase, but it's still a disturbing start to the year.

I probably have the old and new mapping tools bookmarked, but if you find the ones you use, feel free to post for me and others. I also get their emails but those don't seem to perform as advertised.

I take their reports and mapping tools with a grain of salt too. In just the half decade of seeing this area, I've seen the place go from a so-so decent middle-class neighborhood with maybe one house of dickheads to being overrun with reprehensible scumbags and all of their disgusting behavior and the associated police runs, arrests, raids, busts, etc. a lot of which doesn't end up in the mapper.

Posted: 2/9/2015 6:25:37 PM EDT

[#3]

Also, over the past few years there has been a lot in the news about cracking down on the pill trade coming from Florida and making its way up to the northern states and they apparently are putting tighter controls on prescriptions and "pain clinics."

I wonder if that is driving all the junkie trash from pills to heroin and that is why we are hearing so much more about it lately. It's been a problem here and across the river for a while, I guess, but that seems to be getting worse (or at least getting more press) lately.

In any case, it seems like area LEO have been kicking ass and taking names recently.

Posted: 2/9/2015 8:11:40 PM EDT

[#4]

See if anyone can find this.

Yesterday, there was a home invasion followed by someone taking a few shots at cops.

Location was on 30th street about Columbia, give/take a street north/south in the Russell/Portland neighborhood.

This was Sunday afternoon. Forensics team was there from about 9pm until midnight.

I can find nothing on it.

Posted: 2/9/2015 9:16:46 PM EDT

[#5]

http://www.wlky.com/news/Teens-charged-after-robbery-police-chase-crash/31179802

Posted: 2/9/2015 9:54:31 PM EDT

[#6]

It's a little higher than the average for the last decade, but on the other hand by this time last year we had nothing but snow and ice and no warm weather for hoodrats to get out. The articles last year this time were "Louisville crime rate down city is safer because of bad weather!"

Last year KSP and media was posting press releases about how motorcycle deaths were down and they were patting themselves on the backs about it. Like no shit deaths were down, we had snow and ice until march nobody was riding.

Posted: 2/9/2015 10:05:30 PM EDT

[#7]

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http://www.wlky.com/news/Teens-charged-after-robbery-police-chase-crash/31179802

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Very impressive! I found nothing last night, during the investigation.

Hope they nail the pieces of trash to the wall, as adults.

The event started at around Duncan and 29th. The shooting occurred on 30th around Columbia, between Rowan and Duncan. The event ended around 32nd and Hail. That is a stretch over surface streets through the residential neighborhoods of a major city.

Posted: 2/10/2015 8:09:16 AM EDT

[#8]

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It's a little higher than the average for the last decade, but on the other hand by this time last year we had nothing but snow and ice and no warm weather for hoodrats to get out. The articles last year this time were "Louisville crime rate down city is safer because of bad weather!"

Last year KSP and media was posting press releases about how motorcycle deaths were down and they were patting themselves on the backs about it. Like no shit deaths were down, we had snow and ice until march nobody was riding.

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Good points. I feel like 45 days into the new year is a little early to state that murder is up 700% in 2015. Unless you are selling papers that is.

Honestly as long as the crime wave is contained in the "usual" locations I don't give it another thought. If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands I might be more inclined to be concerned.

Posted: 2/10/2015 10:50:33 AM EDT

[#9]

LMPD Crime Maps

I will admit that I don't follow local news as closely as I should. I don't do TV news and that leaves blogs and the CJ. I should be better informed.

Posted: 2/10/2015 10:53:34 AM EDT

[#10]

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Honestly as long as the crime wave is contained in the "usual" locations I don't give it another thought. If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands I might be more inclined to be concerned.

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Thats why I cite the LMPD blotter. I live near Hurstborne over towards Hikes point. I see theft from auto reports at "good" shopping centers on Hurstborne, robberies at places where my wife and I get gas sometimes. You can go 'hood by 'hood and see where the shitty apartment complexes are based on the crime addresses. Its still a good part of town but if you're in a few stupid places, at a stupid time of day, with stupid people you will suffer for it.

Posted: 2/10/2015 11:52:58 AM EDT

[#11]

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Thats why I cite the LMPD blotter. I live near Hurstborne over towards Hikes point. I see theft from auto reports at "good" shopping centers on Hurstborne, robberies at places where my wife and I get gas sometimes. You can go 'hood by 'hood and see where the shitty apartment complexes are based on the crime addresses. Its still a good part of town but if you're in a few stupid places, at a stupid time of day, with stupid people you will suffer for it.

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Honestly as long as the crime wave is contained in the "usual" locations I don't give it another thought. If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands I might be more inclined to be concerned.

Thats why I cite the LMPD blotter. I live near Hurstborne over towards Hikes point. I see theft from auto reports at "good" shopping centers on Hurstborne, robberies at places where my wife and I get gas sometimes. You can go 'hood by 'hood and see where the shitty apartment complexes are based on the crime addresses. Its still a good part of town but if you're in a few stupid places, at a stupid time of day, with stupid people you will suffer for it.

I was referring more to violent crimes rather than the usual theft from a vehicle etc that is common place. I would agree that if you stay away from certian areas and certian types of situations then your chance of a violent encounter is slim, not impossible but slim. Now if you are hanging out in front of the smoke shop on 32nd then all bets are off.

Posted: 2/10/2015 1:14:39 PM EDT

[#12]

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Good points. I feel like 45 days into the new year is a little early to state that murder is up 700% in 2015. Unless you are selling papers that is.

Honestly as long as the crime wave is contained in the "usual" locations I don't give it another thought. If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands I might be more inclined to be concerned.

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It's a little higher than the average for the last decade, but on the other hand by this time last year we had nothing but snow and ice and no warm weather for hoodrats to get out. The articles last year this time were "Louisville crime rate down city is safer because of bad weather!"

Last year KSP and media was posting press releases about how motorcycle deaths were down and they were patting themselves on the backs about it. Like no shit deaths were down, we had snow and ice until march nobody was riding.

Good points. I feel like 45 days into the new year is a little early to state that murder is up 700% in 2015. Unless you are selling papers that is.

Honestly as long as the crime wave is contained in the "usual" locations I don't give it another thought. If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands I might be more inclined to be concerned.

Now, that would be funny.

Posted: 2/10/2015 2:24:19 PM EDT

[#13]

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Thats why I cite the LMPD blotter. I live near Hurstborne over towards Hikes point. I see theft from auto reports at "good" shopping centers on Hurstborne, robberies at places where my wife and I get gas sometimes. You can go 'hood by 'hood and see where the shitty apartment complexes are based on the crime addresses. Its still a good part of town but if you're in a few stupid places, at a stupid time of day, with stupid people you will suffer for it.

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Is there a link to another blotter or another mapping tool? The mapping tool is clearly incomplete, listing only 5 homicides YTD (two DV on the east side, three murders spread around). I'm sure that there is a lag on new crimes being listed that could help explain why the other 9 homicides aren't up, but it isn't just the freshest bodies that are absent from the map. The map doesn't even show one of the early-January murders listed on the LMPD's 2015 Open Homicide page (which does show three of this past weekend's murders - also not on the map).

Not only does the map not completely correspond to crime and arrests that have been on the news, it does not cover raids/busts/arrests that I have personally witnessed, so I have to take the map with a grain of salt.

I thought that the old mapping tool used to have an API that you could use to query for older data. The new one only goes back 6 months and I don't know how or where to find old data to compare the data.

Obviously the other poster is right in that the first 7 weeks of the year is too short of a window to start extrapolating to the rest of the year. I haven't been paying attention to the area for that long, but for the time that I have been, I don't remember this much coverage of hard drug busts, 2/wk murder averages, kids shooting at cops, etc.

Posted: 2/10/2015 3:30:40 PM EDT

[#14]

The mapping tool for Lexington is incomplete too. According to LexPD there hasn't been a homicide in the city and shoplifting never happens.

Lex and Louisville know what they're doing because I guarantee they have the actual crime maps mapped out for their own use regularly.

Posted: 2/10/2015 3:35:47 PM EDT

[#15]

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Now, that would be funny.

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It's a little higher than the average for the last decade, but on the other hand by this time last year we had nothing but snow and ice and no warm weather for hoodrats to get out. The articles last year this time were "Louisville crime rate down city is safer because of bad weather!"

Last year KSP and media was posting press releases about how motorcycle deaths were down and they were patting themselves on the backs about it. Like no shit deaths were down, we had snow and ice until march nobody was riding.

Good points. I feel like 45 days into the new year is a little early to state that murder is up 700% in 2015. Unless you are selling papers that is.

Honestly as long as the crime wave is contained in the "usual" locations I don't give it another thought. If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands I might be more inclined to be concerned.

Now, that would be funny.

What would be funny?

Posted: 2/10/2015 3:45:47 PM EDT

[#16]

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Is there a link to another blotter or another mapping tool? The mapping tool is clearly incomplete, listing only 5 homicides YTD (two DV on the east side, three murders spread around). I'm sure that there is a lag on new crimes being listed that could help explain why the other 9 homicides aren't up, but it isn't just the freshest bodies that are absent from the map. The map doesn't even show one of the early-January murders listed on the LMPD's 2015 Open Homicide page (which does show three of this past weekend's murders - also not on the map).

Not only does the map not completely correspond to crime and arrests that have been on the news, it does not cover raids/busts/arrests that I have personally witnessed, so I have to take the map with a grain of salt.

I thought that the old mapping tool used to have an API that you could use to query for older data. The new one only goes back 6 months and I don't know how or where to find old data to compare the data.

Obviously the other poster is right in that the first 7 weeks of the year is too short of a window to start extrapolating to the rest of the year. I haven't been paying attention to the area for that long, but for the time that I have been, I don't remember this much coverage of hard drug busts, 2/wk murder averages, kids shooting at cops, etc.

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Thats why I cite the LMPD blotter. I live near Hurstborne over towards Hikes point. I see theft from auto reports at "good" shopping centers on Hurstborne, robberies at places where my wife and I get gas sometimes. You can go 'hood by 'hood and see where the shitty apartment complexes are based on the crime addresses. Its still a good part of town but if you're in a few stupid places, at a stupid time of day, with stupid people you will suffer for it.

Is there a link to another blotter or another mapping tool? The mapping tool is clearly incomplete, listing only 5 homicides YTD (two DV on the east side, three murders spread around). I'm sure that there is a lag on new crimes being listed that could help explain why the other 9 homicides aren't up, but it isn't just the freshest bodies that are absent from the map. The map doesn't even show one of the early-January murders listed on the LMPD's 2015 Open Homicide page (which does show three of this past weekend's murders - also not on the map).

Not only does the map not completely correspond to crime and arrests that have been on the news, it does not cover raids/busts/arrests that I have personally witnessed, so I have to take the map with a grain of salt.

I thought that the old mapping tool used to have an API that you could use to query for older data. The new one only goes back 6 months and I don't know how or where to find old data to compare the data.

Obviously the other poster is right in that the first 7 weeks of the year is too short of a window to start extrapolating to the rest of the year. I haven't been paying attention to the area for that long, but for the time that I have been, I don't remember this much coverage of hard drug busts, 2/wk murder averages, kids shooting at cops, etc.

Just received the neighborhood newsletter for the area I live in and one of the regular columns is a crime report that has a breakdown of crimes in the area. According to the article, crime in the area is down 7% vs last quarter and down 36% vs the same period last year. This is data from Oct 15 of last year till Jan 14 of this year. Now this is just for the area directly around me so it doesn't show the overall city, but I thought of this thread when I read the article.

Posted: 2/10/2015 5:17:53 PM EDT

[#17]

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What would be funny?

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It's a little higher than the average for the last decade, but on the other hand by this time last year we had nothing but snow and ice and no warm weather for hoodrats to get out. The articles last year this time were "Louisville crime rate down city is safer because of bad weather!"

Last year KSP and media was posting press releases about how motorcycle deaths were down and they were patting themselves on the backs about it. Like no shit deaths were down, we had snow and ice until march nobody was riding.

Good points. I feel like 45 days into the new year is a little early to state that murder is up 700% in 2015. Unless you are selling papers that is.

Honestly as long as the crime wave is contained in the "usual" locations I don't give it another thought. If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands I might be more inclined to be concerned.

Now, that would be funny.

What would be funny?

If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands... Actually, I guess, I probably wouldn't give it much thought.

I am not even sure where 'the "usual" locations' are that should contain the crime.

I suppose I look at things the same way. Maybe that's myopic? People aren't perfect.

Posted: 2/10/2015 11:45:01 PM EDT

[#18]

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Just received the neighborhood newsletter for the area I live in and one of the regular columns is a crime report that has a breakdown of crimes in the area. According to the article, crime in the area is down 7% vs last quarter and down 36% vs the same period last year. This is data from Oct 15 of last year till Jan 14 of this year. Now this is just for the area directly around me so it doesn't show the overall city, but I thought of this thread when I read the article.

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Thats why I cite the LMPD blotter. I live near Hurstborne over towards Hikes point. I see theft from auto reports at "good" shopping centers on Hurstborne, robberies at places where my wife and I get gas sometimes. You can go 'hood by 'hood and see where the shitty apartment complexes are based on the crime addresses. Its still a good part of town but if you're in a few stupid places, at a stupid time of day, with stupid people you will suffer for it.

Is there a link to another blotter or another mapping tool? The mapping tool is clearly incomplete, listing only 5 homicides YTD (two DV on the east side, three murders spread around). I'm sure that there is a lag on new crimes being listed that could help explain why the other 9 homicides aren't up, but it isn't just the freshest bodies that are absent from the map. The map doesn't even show one of the early-January murders listed on the LMPD's 2015 Open Homicide page (which does show three of this past weekend's murders - also not on the map).

Not only does the map not completely correspond to crime and arrests that have been on the news, it does not cover raids/busts/arrests that I have personally witnessed, so I have to take the map with a grain of salt.

I thought that the old mapping tool used to have an API that you could use to query for older data. The new one only goes back 6 months and I don't know how or where to find old data to compare the data.

Obviously the other poster is right in that the first 7 weeks of the year is too short of a window to start extrapolating to the rest of the year. I haven't been paying attention to the area for that long, but for the time that I have been, I don't remember this much coverage of hard drug busts, 2/wk murder averages, kids shooting at cops, etc.

Just received the neighborhood newsletter for the area I live in and one of the regular columns is a crime report that has a breakdown of crimes in the area. According to the article, crime in the area is down 7% vs last quarter and down 36% vs the same period last year. This is data from Oct 15 of last year till Jan 14 of this year. Now this is just for the area directly around me so it doesn't show the overall city, but I thought of this thread when I read the article.

I clicked on the linked LMPD crime map.
Closest crime near me is someone using a stolen credit card at a business.
Sooo basically it's like blood in the streets and mayhem.

But seriously, emphasis given to data extrapolated from a small sample is folly. It's also been a warm winter. If we had several inches of snow over the period of the last 5-6 weeks; those crime stats would probably be trending to "less crime" which again would be folly to say crime is down.

Basically these specific crime stats are just fodder to feed the media beast.

Posted: 2/11/2015 12:53:58 AM EDT

[#19]

Posted: 2/11/2015 8:41:25 AM EDT

[#20]

Gee Whizz!

Another man found dead. Location was 26th and Saint Xavier St. at 5am this morning.

We just recently had a forum member loose a family member right in that area.

This is nuts.

Forum member's relative killed

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I'll be Louisville to Springfield area. Any fun shops I need to check out? Or good sporting goods shop.
It was my uncle that they found in the portland area dead in the house.

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Posted: 2/11/2015 9:01:02 AM EDT

[#21]

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Very impressive! I found nothing last night, during the investigation.

Hope they nail the pieces of trash to the wall, as adults.

The event started at around Duncan and 29th. The shooting occurred on 30th around Columbia, between Rowan and Duncan. The event ended around 32nd and Hail. That is a stretch over surface streets through the residential neighborhoods of a major city.

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http://www.wlky.com/news/Teens-charged-after-robbery-police-chase-crash/31179802

Very impressive! I found nothing last night, during the investigation.

Hope they nail the pieces of trash to the wall, as adults.

The event started at around Duncan and 29th. The shooting occurred on 30th around Columbia, between Rowan and Duncan. The event ended around 32nd and Hail. That is a stretch over surface streets through the residential neighborhoods of a major city.

This started just 2-3 city blocks from a full service police station, not some tiny sub station, publicity front, or specialized child services station. And, the teens took shots at cops ? Seriously?

There IS something strange and different going on now that wasn't just 6 months ago.

Posted: 2/11/2015 9:33:52 AM EDT

[#22]

http://www.wdrb.com/story/28079304/lmpd-investigating-murder-in-portland

The victim, believed to be a 19- or 20-year-old man, was found behind a house.
Police say he was shot multiple times and was pronounced dead at the scene.
LMPD says they have no suspects at this time.

ETA - On the topics of the member who lost a family member and the map inaccuracies, that whole thing was in early January and only one of the two related homocides are shown in the LMPD map data.

Posted: 2/11/2015 9:59:23 AM EDT

[#23]

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http://www.wdrb.com/story/28079304/lmpd-investigating-murder-in-portland

The victim, believed to be a 19- or 20-year-old man, was found behind a house.
Police say he was shot multiple times and was pronounced dead at the scene.
LMPD says they have no suspects at this time.

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Thank you. That's the incident.

Posted: 2/11/2015 11:01:10 AM EDT

[#24]

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Thank you. That's the incident.

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http://www.wdrb.com/story/28079304/lmpd-investigating-murder-in-portland

The victim, believed to be a 19- or 20-year-old man, was found behind a house.
Police say he was shot multiple times and was pronounced dead at the scene.
LMPD says they have no suspects at this time.

Thank you. That's the incident.

Man....Portland.... I did some door to door campaigning down there a few years ago when George Dick ran against Daryl Owens.

Portland is tragic, there are some great people there. I talked to a few friendly folks who clearly took pride in their homes and had a real sense of community. 3 or 4 nice houses in a row, then something with a city condemned notice on the door all busted up. If I lived there I'd be setting fires and creating greenspace instead of waiting for the dozers.

Posted: 2/11/2015 11:01:37 AM EDT

[#25]

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Obviously the other poster is right in that the first 7 weeks of the year is too short of a window to start extrapolating to the rest of the year. I haven't been paying attention to the area for that long, but for the time that I have been, I don't remember this much coverage of hard drug busts, 2/wk murder averages, kids shooting at cops, etc.

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This guy gets it. He has absolutely nailed it.

Posted: 2/11/2015 11:51:22 AM EDT

[#26]

Its a mistake to rely on these maps exclusively for your information. Almost all of the them have Louisville Metro sources. They may not reflect crimes committed and reported in some of the other cities in Jefferson Co. that are not part of Lou. Metro. Many of these have their own police forces. I am sure that there is a lot of cooperation with Lou. Metro, but I'd bet some information doesn't get exchanged. This can make it appear that very little crime occurs in these places when that is not the case.

Posted: 2/11/2015 11:51:27 AM EDT

[#27]

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Man....Portland.... I did some door to door campaigning down there a few years ago when George Dick ran against Daryl Owens.

Portland is tragic, there are some great people there. I talked to a few friendly folks who clearly took pride in their homes and had a real sense of community. 3 or 4 nice houses in a row, then something with a city condemned notice on the door all busted up. If I lived there I'd be setting fires and creating greenspace instead of waiting for the dozers.

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Quoted:
http://www.wdrb.com/story/28079304/lmpd-investigating-murder-in-portland

The victim, believed to be a 19- or 20-year-old man, was found behind a house.
Police say he was shot multiple times and was pronounced dead at the scene.
LMPD says they have no suspects at this time.

Thank you. That's the incident.

Man....Portland.... I did some door to door campaigning down there a few years ago when George Dick ran against Daryl Owens.

Portland is tragic, there are some great people there. I talked to a few friendly folks who clearly took pride in their homes and had a real sense of community. 3 or 4 nice houses in a row, then something with a city condemned notice on the door all busted up. If I lived there I'd be setting fires and creating greenspace instead of waiting for the dozers.

I'm doing what I can. I can't burn down those places as it would be arson. I am cleaning up places I don't own, buying property, working with decent neighbors, and walking the streets.

There are blocks, even with empty houses, that have been quiet. Now, it has gone nuts every where.

I will be asking the city to doze some places. Banks are sitting on some places for many years and won't budge .

Hope we don't have another situation like last spring with the rioting thugs.

For the record, I have a counrty estate in Northern Ky, southern Boone county. I have worked in downtown Louisville for about 10 years and rented nice places downtown. But, in recent years, I've bought a quiet place in Portland not far from my office. I have cleaned up other places near by and in process of buying more properties there. I also own a mountain with a cabin on it in Daniel Boone National Forest. I often refer to any of the 3 places. My life is spread out among the 3.

Posted: 2/11/2015 12:01:20 PM EDT

[#28]

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Its a mistake to rely on these maps exclusively for your information. Almost all of the them have Louisville Metro sources. They may not reflect crimes committed and reported in some of the other cities in Jefferson Co. that are not part of Lou. Metro. Many of these have their own police forces. I am sure that there is a lot of cooperation with Lou. Metro, but I'd bet some information doesn't get exchanged. This can make it appear that very little crime occurs in these places when that is not the case.

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This is correct.

Moreover, to truly know what is going on, you have to get on the street, drive the areas regularly, walk the areas, and hang out there during the day and night.
That is what I have done.

As I have mentioned, I have worked in the downtown Louisville business district 10 years. I'm a retired hardcore .mil guy. So, I have gone a lot of places that I probably shouldn't. But, that is also how I know something is gone on in the last few months that was not in the past.

Posted: 2/11/2015 1:07:34 PM EDT

[#29]

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This is correct.

Moreover, to truly know what is going on, you have to get on the street, drive the areas regularly, walk the areas, and hang out there during the day and night.
That is what I have done.

As I have mentioned, I have worked in the downtown Louisville business district 10 years. I'm a retired hardcore .mil guy. So, I have gone a lot of places that I probably shouldn't. But, that is also how I know something is gone on in the last few months that was not in the past.

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Its a mistake to rely on these maps exclusively for your information. Almost all of the them have Louisville Metro sources. They may not reflect crimes committed and reported in some of the other cities in Jefferson Co. that are not part of Lou. Metro. Many of these have their own police forces. I am sure that there is a lot of cooperation with Lou. Metro, but I'd bet some information doesn't get exchanged. This can make it appear that very little crime occurs in these places when that is not the case.

This is correct.

Moreover, to truly know what is going on, you have to get on the street, drive the areas regularly, walk the areas, and hang out there during the day and night.
That is what I have done.

As I have mentioned, I have worked in the downtown Louisville business district 10 years. I'm a retired hardcore .mil guy. So, I have gone a lot of places that I probably shouldn't. But, that is also how I know something is gone on in the last few months that was not in the past.

Yep. I've also personally seen a number of police runs/busts/raids/arrests/etc that isn't represented in crime maps or blotters that I can find online. Thinking that a neighborhood is safe or that heinous shit isn't at your doorstep because it doesn't show up on a map may be as foolhardy as thinking that we're in for an especially bad year just because there are 15 murders by early February.

Posted: 2/11/2015 1:24:41 PM EDT

[#30]

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Yep. I've also personally seen a number of police runs/busts/raids/arrests/etc that isn't represented in crime maps or blotters that I can find online. Thinking that a neighborhood is safe or that heinous shit isn't at your doorstep because it doesn't show up on a map may be as foolhardy as thinking that we're in for an especially bad year just because there are 15 murders by early February.

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Quoted:

Quoted:
Its a mistake to rely on these maps exclusively for your information. Almost all of the them have Louisville Metro sources. They may not reflect crimes committed and reported in some of the other cities in Jefferson Co. that are not part of Lou. Metro. Many of these have their own police forces. I am sure that there is a lot of cooperation with Lou. Metro, but I'd bet some information doesn't get exchanged. This can make it appear that very little crime occurs in these places when that is not the case.

This is correct.

Moreover, to truly know what is going on, you have to get on the street, drive the areas regularly, walk the areas, and hang out there during the day and night.
That is what I have done.

As I have mentioned, I have worked in the downtown Louisville business district 10 years. I'm a retired hardcore .mil guy. So, I have gone a lot of places that I probably shouldn't. But, that is also how I know something is gone on in the last few months that was not in the past.

Yep. I've also personally seen a number of police runs/busts/raids/arrests/etc that isn't represented in crime maps or blotters that I can find online. Thinking that a neighborhood is safe or that heinous shit isn't at your doorstep because it doesn't show up on a map may be as foolhardy as thinking that we're in for an especially bad year just because there are 15 murders by early February.

Do you believe that the discrepancy in the portal that you feel are there, are a result of dishonest reporting of data or is it just the nature of the online beast?

Also do you believe that these discrepancies are also in the data set that is passed up to the FBI for use in national crime statics ?

Is it an orchestrated effort to skew the data or is it just an honest oversight on someone's part ?

If it is intentional is it for political reasons, police statistics padding or something else ?

Just curious.

Posted: 2/11/2015 1:40:09 PM EDT

[#31]

Wow. That's some heavy stuff.

1) I don't know. Hope it is honest oversight. I've seen a bit in business district not show up.

2) I would think the same stats roll up to the FBI.

3) I don't know or am not yet confident enough to say.

4) See item 3 above.

The bottom line is that I don't know enough to say. I could only take wild tailed guesses at this point.

Posted: 2/11/2015 1:54:10 PM EDT

[#32]

I think some of the discrepancies you may notice are due to way the data is collected. I would assume that the data is added to the online portal as reports are filed. Rather than as issues occur.

Simple issues show up almost immediately were more complex cases don't make the list till more details and information is collected, charges decided on, etc.

Also you guys should look at the crime reports app. I believe it uses the same data set as the metro portal though.

Posted: 2/11/2015 3:44:22 PM EDT

[#33]

Quote History

Quoted:
Do you believe that the discrepancy in the portal that you feel are there, are a result of dishonest reporting of data or is it just the nature of the online beast?

Also do you believe that these discrepancies are also in the data set that is passed up to the FBI for use in national crime statics ?

Is it an orchestrated effort to skew the data or is it just an honest oversight on someone's part ?

If it is intentional is it for political reasons, police statistics padding or something else ?

Just curious.

View Quote

For the most part, it's almost certainly just the nature of the beast. Data comes in from different sources, at different rates, perhaps in different formats, going to different destinations, and perhaps with different levels of public disclosure for investigative and privacy concerns.

However, after the cops recently started making noise about the mayor's office (or similar) calling for under- (or non-) reporting of crime in general or in certain areas, it does call the numbers into question. On the other hand, I don't know that heinous crimes could be under reported to a degree that would skew the numbers enough to make a difference. I would think (hope) that a 'scandal' like that would get noticed.

The point is that I don't think that any one source can be taken in a vacuum. Everything - news, crime maps, anecdotal reports, police reports, personal experience - should be considered and critically analyzed. IMO, all of that seems to be trending toward the unfavorable lately. Could just as likely be a fluke.

Posted: 2/11/2015 5:28:53 PM EDT

[#34]

Quote History

Quoted:

For the most part, it's almost certainly just the nature of the beast. Data comes in from different sources, at different rates, perhaps in different formats, going to different destinations, and perhaps with different levels of public disclosure for investigative and privacy concerns.

However, after the cops recently started making noise about the mayor's office (or similar) calling for under- (or non-) reporting of crime in general or in certain areas, it does call the numbers into question. On the other hand, I don't know that heinous crimes could be under reported to a degree that would skew the numbers enough to make a difference. I would think (hope) that a 'scandal' like that would get noticed.

The point is that I don't think that any one source can be taken in a vacuum. Everything - news, crime maps, anecdotal reports, police reports, personal experience - should be considered and critically analyzed. IMO, all of that seems to be trending toward the unfavorable lately. Could just as likely be a fluke.

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quote History

Quoted:

Quoted:
Do you believe that the discrepancy in the portal that you feel are there, are a result of dishonest reporting of data or is it just the nature of the online beast?

Also do you believe that these discrepancies are also in the data set that is passed up to the FBI for use in national crime statics ?

Is it an orchestrated effort to skew the data or is it just an honest oversight on someone's part ?

If it is intentional is it for political reasons, police statistics padding or something else ?

Just curious.

For the most part, it's almost certainly just the nature of the beast. Data comes in from different sources, at different rates, perhaps in different formats, going to different destinations, and perhaps with different levels of public disclosure for investigative and privacy concerns.

However, after the cops recently started making noise about the mayor's office (or similar) calling for under- (or non-) reporting of crime in general or in certain areas, it does call the numbers into question. On the other hand, I don't know that heinous crimes could be under reported to a degree that would skew the numbers enough to make a difference. I would think (hope) that a 'scandal' like that would get noticed.

The point is that I don't think that any one source can be taken in a vacuum. Everything - news, crime maps, anecdotal reports, police reports, personal experience - should be considered and critically analyzed. IMO, all of that seems to be trending toward the unfavorable lately. Could just as likely be a fluke.

I agree.

From my perspective this year is down on violent crimes. If the current trend holds I will be down 100% for neighbors murdered. Of course last year it was up from the previous years 100%.

Posted: 2/11/2015 10:53:32 PM EDT

[#35]

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From my perspective this year is down on violent crimes. If the current trend holds I will be down 100% for neighbors murdered. Of course last year it was up from the previous years 100%.

View Quote

Mine is the complete opposite. This stuff has absolutely exploded.

Posted: 2/11/2015 11:31:43 PM EDT

[#36]

The heroin problem is the only real "difference" than the last several years. 5-6 years ago, heroin was almost non-existant in Louisville. Then the Opanas blew up for about 4 years and when they disappeared the heroin went through the roof.

The heroin overdoses are all over the county, daily, especially in the rural areas.

Posted: 2/12/2015 1:36:40 AM EDT

[#37]

It's not unheard of for agencies to report fraudulent numbers for the UCR. Remember, college campuses still fight hard to not report crimes even though unlike the voluntary UCR, they are REQUIRED under the Clery Act.

Posted: 2/12/2015 7:57:32 AM EDT

[#38]

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Quoted:

Mine is the complete opposite. This stuff has absolutely exploded.

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Quoted:

Quoted:

From my perspective this year is down on violent crimes. If the current trend holds I will be down 100% for neighbors murdered. Of course last year it was up from the previous years 100%.

Mine is the complete opposite. This stuff has absolutely exploded.

Did you expect anything else as a result of your move ?

Posted: 2/12/2015 8:09:11 AM EDT

[#39]

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Quoted:

Did you expect anything else as a result of your move ?

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Quoted:

Quoted:

From my perspective this year is down on violent crimes. If the current trend holds I will be down 100% for neighbors murdered. Of course last year it was up from the previous years 100%.

Mine is the complete opposite. This stuff has absolutely exploded.

Did you expect anything else as a result of your move ?

Yes. While having my place in Northern Ky, I had rented residential places in the business district for 8-9 years. I stopped renting and bought a place that had less crime in the Portland neighborhood. Things were fine at first, but recently, it has gone nuts. Yes, there are rough places in the West part of Louisville. But, many places had been quite too. It is not like that part of town was new to me. Things are different now. I just don't know why it has suddenly gone nuts.

Posted: 2/12/2015 12:41:46 PM EDT

[#40]

There always seems to be brief spurts of crime on warm winter and spring days.

Posted: 2/12/2015 1:34:24 PM EDT

[#41]

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There always seems to be brief spurts of crime on warm winter and spring days.

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There are warm days almost every year. Maybe it is, but the recent stuff on the news just doesn't sound like Joe Hoodrat saying "gee, it's nice out - I'll go break into a few cars, sell some weed on the corner, and get into a fight."

All I can find quickly is are news stories, but it cites 54 total murders last year, 48 the year before, 69 the year before that. 10% of the way into this year we're already almost 30% of the way to last year's numbers with 15 so far. Again, it's clearly too early to extrapolate to the rest of the year, but - to play devil's advocate - unless they get the rest of the year's weekly murder average down from around 2/week to 0.866/week, we'll see another increase.

Over the course of recent full years, weekly murder rates have been 1.04/week, 0.92/week, and 1.32/week. With increased hard drug activity (or at least coverage of it), I don't know if I believe they can get that average down below the averages from previous years when there appeared to be less of that going on. We still have the same old scumbags that are always around but now with this "new" element introduced. Is there a reasonably accurate source of month-by-month numbers? While still not perfect, it might be more apples-to-apples to see the averages for remaining warmer months than for the full year.

Posted: 2/18/2015 12:35:37 PM EDT

[#42]

Looks like Louisville is keeping up with the minimum 2/wk average.

http://www.wdrb.com/story/28135469/lmpd-investigating-fatal-shooting-in-clifton-neighborhood

Posted: 2/18/2015 1:31:37 PM EDT

[#43]

Really? In this weather? Gees!

Posted: 2/18/2015 2:00:14 PM EDT

[#44]

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Really? In this weather? Gees!

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Found inside, 0530, in this weather, in a neighborhood that's 33% college educated and 87% white, 'person of interest' with no charges filed.

Got to be a DV like some of the other east side murders this year. Bad crime is contained in the 'usual places.'

Posted: 2/18/2015 3:17:27 PM EDT

[#45]

That's it I'm building a snow fort.

Posted: 2/18/2015 3:25:59 PM EDT

[#46]

Quote History

Quoted:

Found inside, 0530, in this weather, in a neighborhood that's 33% college educated and 87% white, 'person of interest' with no charges filed.

Got to be a DV like some of the other east side murders this year. Bad crime is contained in the 'usual places.'

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Quoted:

Quoted:
Really? In this weather? Gees!

Found inside, 0530, in this weather, in a neighborhood that's 33% college educated and 87% white, 'person of interest' with no charges filed.

Got to be a DV like some of the other east side murders this year. Bad crime is contained in the 'usual places.'

What are the usual places? I don't know.

Posted: 2/18/2015 3:29:51 PM EDT

[#47]

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What are the usual places? I don't know.

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Quoted:

Quoted:
Really? In this weather? Gees!

Found inside, 0530, in this weather, in a neighborhood that's 33% college educated and 87% white, 'person of interest' with no charges filed.

Got to be a DV like some of the other east side murders this year. Bad crime is contained in the 'usual places.'

What are the usual places? I don't know.

Generally near a Martin Luther King named road and 'community centers' for the poor and disadvantaged hoodlums.

Posted: 2/18/2015 3:45:49 PM EDT

[#48]

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What are the usual places? I don't know.

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Quoted:

Quoted:
Really? In this weather? Gees!

Found inside, 0530, in this weather, in a neighborhood that's 33% college educated and 87% white, 'person of interest' with no charges filed.

Got to be a DV like some of the other east side murders this year. Bad crime is contained in the 'usual places.'

What are the usual places? I don't know.

Asked and answered (or, at least, alluded to) on p1.

I mention the demographics above because they are pretty similar to the "not the usual place" mentioned on p1 and somewhat different than "the usual places" referred to.

Quoted:

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Honestly as long as the crime wave is contained in the "usual" locations I don't give it another thought. If a crime wave ran through Hurstbourne, Crescent Hill, or Highlands I might be more inclined to be concerned.

Now, that would be funny.

http://www.ar15.com/archive/topic.html?b=8&f=27&t=452659

Posted: 2/18/2015 4:16:18 PM EDT

[#49]

I would bet it was drug related not knowing anything but the little details provided in news story. Could be a DV as OP suggested just as easily, or a shot while finger fucking a gun scenario. Attempted sucide maybe? Who really knows at this point?

Posted: 2/19/2015 9:49:21 AM EDT

[#50]

This weeks blotter for my part of town: http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/KYLOUISVILLE/2015/02/18/file_attachments/365830/6thDivisionBlockWatchReport02-14-2015.pdf

Nothing too scary, the ones that jump out at me are robberies at or near places where my wife and I shop and the daytime robberies. I work from home and my wife is home raising our son, so someone expecting to find an empty house and a free iPad is going to find my family. I don't much like that idea which is why I ALWAYS carry even though my environment is objectively quite safe.

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