I know there is a lot of speculation on this and just looking for thoughts/opinions.

We all know the market here has been insane over the last few years.

I am in the position to buy my first house this summer. Wife and two kids.

Is it smart to wait till this "bubble bursts"? Rent for another year? Just wondering what folks here think.

Will I be buying a house that will devalue soon?

Thanks for ANY input or advice. 

I'm waiting for the bubble to burst. I'm also being hopeful that it does since I'm not in the position to buy a house at the moment and if prices keep rising like this, I may not be able to stick around CO.

This is my issue exactly.

A couple anecdotal stories for you that might be helpful.

We bought our house in 2010.  It's now worth about 30% more.

My sister bought a house (somewhere else) at the top of a bubble. 8 years later when they tried to move, they discovered that they are upside down on their house. So now, they can't buy a house until they pay down their other one and sell it.

My point is, please wait until this bubble bursts. There isn't' much room for prices to go up from here, but there is plenty of room for them to go down. Is the economy in Colorado really 30% stronger than it was in 2010? No.

If the fed finally raises interest rates, you'll see housing prices start to come down.

Since there's only a little bit of bad mortgages going around right now the housing market in Co is going to be directly tied to jobs. I don't know where you are looking but I have some experience in Denver up to northern Co and I only see a plateau unless there's some major economy change.

The initial buy price is only one factor but it's the one new buyers fixate on for multiple reasons.  Owning a home is a long term goal. Real estate bubbles statistically speaking are 10 50 and 100 year cycles. But that was before the depression we just had which completely messed up the cycles.

The last bubble started to form in 2009 when hhouses got scarce and new construction started in 2010. There's still a lack of homes on the market.  All signs including the stock market would make me believe that prices will be climbing for atleast the next 2 years. Then a small burst of 10% price reduction when the supply exceeds demand.

It's all about interest rates. As long as the 30 year stays under 6 or 7% I don't think you will see a late 2000's type event. Dips, sure thing, but not 50% declines.

The recommendation we got from our financial advisor is to buy, at least in the Denver metro area. With so many companies creating jobs and so many people moving to the area, there is a housing shortage and they can't build new houses and apartments fast enough. Interest rates will likely rise in the next few weeks and months. Once they get to a certain point, would housing costs go down? Sure, but it may still cost you more in the long run...

I have no idea what housing prices are doing outside of the populated areas though, so it could also depend on where you want to live. I'm not a legalized marijuana supporter by any means but my hope is that more states will legalize it and the tide of folks moving to Colorado will slow down. If we're lucky, some may even move out for cheaper living options elsewhere, but I doubt it.

My best guess is that even if the "bubble" pops, that prices in most of Colorado will flatten or decline only a bit.  And that more popular areas such as Denver, Boulder, Fort Collins, Loveland, etc will continue to appreciate.  The market has been crazy here the last several decades...

I took the risk and just bought a house in the Denver metro area (Littleton). I was very apprehensive but as a couple posters said, the financial outlook I kept hearing due to the increase in jobs and lack of housing lead me to believe if there was a dip in pricing, it would be minimal. I definitely did not like paying what I did compared to what my house sold for in 2010 but with colorados growth since then I'm optimistic if I sold this house in 5-7 years I'd be okay.

Before the housing crash, Denver metro area builders were building ~23,000 new houses per year. Now we're at ~9,000 new houses per year. With the population growth we're experiencing that is even more untenable than it would have been before.

There really wasn't a crash in 08-09 here. The economy did slow a bunch here but there wasn't a crash like some areas saw.
On the flip side we didn't see the rapid appreciation that other areas saw in the early-mid 2000's. IMHO we are seeing property values do here what they did in areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas and various parts of Florida in the mid 2000's.
My now wife bought a new condo in Scottsdale in 2005 ish for $150k that she tried sell in 09 and couldn't sell it for what she owed which was just shy of $100k, ended up going into foreclosure and finally sold at auction for $45k. I hope we never see that happen here.

Since I'm doing a cash out refi on Friday to get some remodeling work done (and I may get some nice glass on a rifle, too ), I suspect we'll get a downturn soon.  Murphy's Law and such.

i'm no economist, but it seems that with metro denver housing inventory continuing to be at record lows (6%), coupled with the influx of people and jobs being created, there isn't much of a bubble here to speak of.   Look at the tech center--there have been 5 separate 10-story buildings built between Arapahoe and Orchard along I-25 in the last year alone.  Next to Arapahoe Station more condos have been built.  Huge high rise condos being built at the Bellview station--and there's still shortages.

There may not be explosive gains on costs, but i can't see housing prices going down any time soon

Personally I think that most real estate in the Denver Metro is getting overpriced - and for a lot of people it is unaffordable in the sense that if they buy they'll be house poor - but less so than if they continue renting.

However that does not mean that the market will correct itself any time soon. We have a lot of people coming in who sold their homes in places like CA or the East Coast and have the cash (and possibly the tax reasons) to simply buy homes outright. Those people won't be as hard hit if the job market softens because they're not going to have mortgages if they're smart. Hell, a renter coming here from certain parts of CA or the East Coast probably thinks Denver is fucking cheap.

I suspect over the long term the Denver Metro is going to transform into a landlocked Bay Area - and if that happens then if you buy now and can make it through the ups and downs then it may very well be the only way you can afford to be living here in 20 years.

Law of supply and demand. People want to come here, and the market is tight.
For the bubble to pop either supply has to go up or demand has to go down.
It seems stable now, but industrial market has gone up 70% in two years. There's also not much industrial property left.
Homes are expensive if you want a decent home in a great school district.
If interest rates go up, property values may go down.
If you're waiting for a bubble to pop you might be waiting for a long time, but I agree that the property cost is overvalued.

+1  Supply and Demand.
Libtards, Messicans, and anyone else with a few $ come to CO set up shop and they don't leave.  Not only that, but then their shit-head relatives and buddies jump on the bandwagon once they see how great CO is.

Last time I checked the market is tight, and very few are leaving.  

CO won't greatly effected by a "bubble" in the near future.  CO is already short on inventory everywhere.  Property prices here are never going down significantly ever again as long as people keep fucking, and immigrating here.

CO doesn't really suck at all and that's why people stay here and immigrate here.

Not to be cliche', but it's going to be more about location, location, location on the Front Range.  

We bought in 2013 on the outskirts of Longmont, and within 3 years the area developed around us. We made about 40% after making a few modest updates to the house, and are now living in Hawaii for a couple years while our kids are still little. We'll come back and find a fixer-upper in the mountains, and maybe do another flip or two if the market is still strong.

Look for the areas that have good access, but may be older neighborhoods or seem stagnant. The current residents will die off, or move on and the money will flow into those areas to renovate and make some money.