I think you're right but I also think there's more to the equation than meets the eye.
First off, burning is not a simple chemical reaction. It is a very complex series of reactions which interact with each other. I believe I remember in high school chemistry my teacher told us that some scientists have identified hundreds of chemical reactions that take place inside the flame of a burning candle. I couldn't begin to comprehend the reactions that take place inside a bullet as it goes off.
Burned in confinement, byproducts of the burning reaction combine and recombine producing heat and energy in a very short period of time. But, in open air, those byproducts can escape and heat is not retained in the chamber. It is very possible that some of the byproducts of burning powder are left behind when not contained inside a bullet as they burn.
I'm not saying you're wrong. In fact, I think your experiment is a good first step to understanding what goes on when gunpowder burns.
I'm just thinking of what we can do to take this experiment to the next level and see what happens when powder burns in confinement.
Just a "spitball" idea here...
Would it be a fair test to put measured amounts of powder into small, sealed plastic containers like old 35mm film canisters?
I think the powder would burn, the pressure would build and the lids would pop off in a semi-safe manner. As long as you were a safe distance away and in an area where you couldn't start a fire it would be reasonable safe. Wouldn't it?
Then you could swab the inside of the containers with a Q-Tip or a piece of white cloth to see what residue is left over.
I don't think this would be a completely true test but I think it might be interesting to compare results with open air burning.