I feel like since the ATF announced the 41P ruling last fall prices on MGs have been rising extremely fast, almost forming what appears to be a bubble. Although i have to admit prices werent exactly going down in value prior to the ATF announcement. Personally i have no worries about 41P, they could completely shut down trusts and Im confident I can still get a CLEO to sign, so i have no incentive to hurry and buy a MG, especially if prices drop slightly after June, but if its just the real prices the longer i wait the more im sure ill have to pay.

So what is everyone's thoughts, are these sky rocketing price a result of natural supply and demand or panic buying from people who think 41P means the end of the NFA world?



P.S. Looking to buy a RLL or Olympic RR

My two cents - we are seeing a market uptick that is in no way related to 41p.  

The MG market was really soft in 08, and growing by 2010, and I think it's been really growing since then.     41p (IMO) hasn't made a significant dent in driving MG prices.    I believe that MG prices are being more moved by some segments of the economy and still a bit by folks learning that MGs are legal.

While there is a small supply, there is a large demand and a lot of that is in a series of very small niche markets.  For example, if someone wants an MG81Z, the options are to pay for a good example or grow old and die. There is no option to maybe wait for a bargain to come along.   OP mentions a RLL, of which 538 were made and who knows how many are still on valid paper. At any point, if you dug really hard, you'd find 1 or two for sale.   Not much power for a buyer in that case.

Sure there are folks who want to just simply "get" any MG. That's the factor that has pushed up the lower end of the MG market (specifically, MACs).  That said, MACs are a good platform that is very interchangeable.  That also helps value, a shooter can get more use/configurations/fun out of his single registered MG.   This, and the blooming aftermarket, has driven 'modular' type MGs up in price.  MACs, AR/M16 platform, DIAS, RLL, HK sears & triggers.     But nobody is going to want to get a first, cheap, MG and sign the form 4 to take possession of a Chauchat...

And realize anything in the registry is almost 30 years old at a minimum - and there are a lot of things represented that just aren't being made anymore - things that are still cool as can be.   Thompsons, BARs, MG08s, etc.  These really are collector type guns. Sure they get used, maybe, but the very nature of being old and out of production and iconic drives collectors who want that particular model. And if you are paying $20k for an MG08, it makes sense to pay $25k for the one you really want and not the first one you see.  This is a very different market segment, and it does take money to play here.   Part of this is driven by the one-way escalation of scarcity, and the other portion is that money isn't that tough to come by.  If you were in a coma, you could have gained 15-20% in the market this year.  Diverting a little bit of that profit to a fun item isn't very tough to do.    If you are calculating mag dumps versus cases of ramen, this isn't your MG purchasing strategy.  

What I have seen personally (I am an 07/02) is 41P is driving a lot of folks who do not own NFA to go for SBRs and silencers.  Haven't seen anyone firsthand jump into a MG.    Have had a lot of people ask, but what's a good entry MG to recommend ?  A MAC and folks who aren't insane dont want to drop 5k and wait a year on an ugly sheetmetal box (no offense to MAC owners!).   99% out of the time, the question then goes to "well how much for an M16" and then we start around $15k....  And this is pretty much beyond the realm of reality for anyone walking into the neighborhood shop.


Personally, I bought my first MG - a RLL - in 2008. It's been a great entry point because you really can get a lot of flexibility out of it.  Hosts are pretty easy (even if you $200/SBR short hosts).  I still stand by the RLL or RDIAS or HK sear/pack as the best bang for your buck and you can virtually have half a dozen MGs for one stamp.

And I am comfortable enough with the MG market that so far in 2014, I've picked up two more MGs for my personal collection.  

I agree w/ Shizzlemah.
41p did a little impact to MG price increase.
I brought 3 MGs during the last 6 mts, and honestly didn't even care about 41p as well as my other stamp collecting friends.
NFA MG price will only increase and it will be harder and harder to find what you want...
Personally, I would never sell my LL or my HK sears... they're the best in terms of flexibility, versatility and overall value.

@shizzlemah

I agree with rll being great because of their flexibility, I suppose that's why they have been been selling for up too $18k lately, sadly out of my price range though.  At the moment I'm trying to scrap together $14-15k for a non-colt RR, not really what I want but given the prices I'm being realistic and its all I can afford, hopefully I won't regret it later haha

Seeing as most ppl are thinking that the price increases are not 41p related I suppose there is no incentive to wait till after June and I should really just buy before prices go up more I guess.

I don't think the run in prices is 41p related. Now having said that, I do think that if 41p requires CLEO signoff for all entities it could shrink the pool of buyers (at least for a while) for NFA stuff. I remember several years ago when the trust route of acquiring NFA came out in the mainstream. IMHO, the ability to bypass signoff with a trust is part of what made the demand for NFA increase so substantially in the last several years. As demand goes, so does price. There's still a lot of people out there that can't get signoff (me possibly being one of them).

I don't see the threat of 41P inflating prices. I do see 41P affecting wait times as people register everything BUT MGs to get in before what they see as a window closing.