User Panel
Posted: 3/17/2016 3:42:17 PM EDT
Where the hell are the machineguns?
Lately, I haven't seen anything on the advertised market for MGs. All SWD M11 just disappeared from the face of the earth and DIAS, LL, Sendra RR, you name it. What the heck just happened? We experienced a temporary shortage or overflow but not at this extent. Is it because of 41P or everyone holding it for some reason? I've been watching the market since early 2000, and it seems pretty bizarre. Anyone care to explain? |
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Fixed supply?
They quit making them for us lowly citizens in 1986. I thought price and availability were insane 10 years ago, man was I wrong, they were just getting started! |
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Even with fixed supply it wasn't that bad.
For example, M11 was always plentiful... even on gunbroker, I don't see a single one for sale. |
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Nolo's cases has all the potential buyers waiting for cheap new MGs. I have faith...
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I noticed the same thing - which is why I finally decided to take the plunge this month. I'm a newb in the MG world, but I think these high prices are the new norm (barring legislation). So for me, it was now or never.
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I was actually going to post something similar this week. I watch the m16 market closely and recently it has dried up. Normally 20+ transferable for sale on GB I think there are like 5 at the moment. Reuben not all has a page with dozens he has 4? Subguns and sturm is just as bad.
Maybe it's 41p, could be election year, tax refund season, enconomy is finally picking up, etc... |
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I''m suspecting that it's strongly related to 41P + tax refund season.
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I was actually going to post something similar this week. I watch the m16 market closely and recently it has dried up. Normally 20+ transferable for sale on GB I think there are like 5 at the moment. Reuben not all has a page with dozens he has 4? Subguns and sturm is just as bad. Maybe it's 41p, could be election year, tax refund season, enconomy is finally picking up, etc... View Quote |
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I''m suspecting that it's strongly related to 41P + tax refund season. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
I''m suspecting that it's strongly related to 41P + tax refund season. Quoted:
I was actually going to post something similar this week. I watch the m16 market closely and recently it has dried up. Normally 20+ transferable for sale on GB I think there are like 5 at the moment. Reuben not all has a page with dozens he has 4? Subguns and sturm is just as bad. Maybe it's 41p, could be election year, tax refund season, enconomy is finally picking up, etc... What is this "refund" you speak of? I always end up paying.....damn gov always wants more, more, more..... |
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I don't think it's anything really. It's always in waves. I just keep buying regardless.
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I'm thinking it's got to do with election year coming. If at anytime you've been thinking about buying one NOW IS THE TIME!
$9000.00 for a M-11? WTF |
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No time to buy like the present. I was able to snag a local m11 for $4500 this winter. I want another MG and next year I might have enough spare cash to do so but Im afraid prices will continue to skyrocket with election year and 41p business. Ive been close to buying one of those Sten guns from Rueben but keep talking myself out of it.
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^sten, more fun than Mac
I have a feeling that if a republican wins, that we might see more MGs hit the market again. I think people are nervous, if Hillary gets elected, almost assuredly there will be a ban(on what, no clue yet). So people are holding onto what they have until we know what the immediate future holds. If the market gets flooded, prices MAY dip, possibly. |
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I'm glad I finally got into the market. 41p and Hillary potential finally pushed me over the edge. Then when I finally decided to buy one, it took me a while to find one at a decent price.
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"shooters" buy and sell guns all the time
"collectors" hoard guns and don't sell them the higher the price of these guns gets, the fewer of them will emerge from gun collections the scarcer they get, the more precious they will seem to the people who buy things just for the sake of owning them 3 years ago there were lots of FNC sears on the market one was for sale for a month for $2700 and no takers try to find one now. they all disappeared into collections. |
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"shooters" buy and sell guns all the time "collectors" hoard guns and don't sell them the higher the price of these guns gets, the fewer of them will emerge from gun collections the scarcer they get, the more precious they will seem to the people who buy things just for the sake of owning them 3 years ago there were lots of FNC sears on the market one was for sale for a month for $2700 and no takers try to find one now. they all disappeared into collections. View Quote That was more then 3 years ago even. I bought my sear 3 years ago for 4700 and it was a WTB add I had up for atleast a year. I don't think I've even seen one advertised in the last 4 years. The last time I saw a $3000 FNC sear was that large batch that hit the market at once (2009?). |
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Fixed supply? They quit making them for us lowly citizens in 1986. I thought price and availability were insane 10 years ago, man was I wrong, they were just getting started! View Quote No shit. I wish I'd bought then, instead of "waiting till I could afford it". The idea of a $4K M16 is pure fantasy now. |
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My friendly machinegun dealer said it has been near impossible to find inventory lately. He attributes this to several factors; 1) Continued unease about the Global economy - compared to stocks, commodities and even PMs, MGs are a more sound and stable investment (that in itself is an alarming statement). 2) IF 41f is not rolled out properly, it will likely lead to a cluster-fuck of rejected forms until Trustees, Dealers and ATF Reviewers all begin to fully understand the new requirements and processes. People are buying what they want now. 3) There are about 176K fully transferable MGs in the registry. Despite what the Liberal media wants you to believe, gun owners as a percentage of the population is WAAAAY up and that means there is increased interest in MGs as well. Increased demand on a fixed supply means less availability and ever increasing prices. Figure that individual MGs increase in price 10% every time they transfer on a form 4. Are there ups and downs and risk? Certainly but for the foreseeable future it is a rising tide.
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Well part of it is new people in the game. I never took NFA stuff seriously until I heard at the end of 2013 they were talking about 41p. Fast forward a couple of years and I'm looking for my 5th MG
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That was more then 3 years ago even. I bought my sear 3 years ago for 4700 and it was a WTB add I had up for atleast a year. I don't think I've even seen one advertised in the last 4 years. The last time I saw a $3000 FNC sear was that large batch that hit the market at once (2009?). View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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"shooters" buy and sell guns all the time "collectors" hoard guns and don't sell them the higher the price of these guns gets, the fewer of them will emerge from gun collections the scarcer they get, the more precious they will seem to the people who buy things just for the sake of owning them 3 years ago there were lots of FNC sears on the market one was for sale for a month for $2700 and no takers try to find one now. they all disappeared into collections. That was more then 3 years ago even. I bought my sear 3 years ago for 4700 and it was a WTB add I had up for atleast a year. I don't think I've even seen one advertised in the last 4 years. The last time I saw a $3000 FNC sear was that large batch that hit the market at once (2009?). In January 2012, sears were selling for around $3300 and you would see the occasional one for under $3000 By mid year the price was around $3750 In August 2012 somebody dumped 14 sears on the market priced at $2700 each. So it was about 3.5 years ago. |
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Well part of it is new people in the game. I never took NFA stuff seriously until I heard at the end of 2013 they were talking about 41p. Fast forward a couple of years and I'm looking for my 5th MG View Quote The increase in price is 100% due to the new people in the game. Price is the agreement between supply and demand. If the supply stays the same and the demand stays the same, then the price stays the same. If the supply shrinks, the price goes up. If the demand increases, the price goes up. Supply is the first half of the equation. The supply has not changed in 30 years. Therefore, since the supply isn't decreasing, then the increase in price isn't due to the supply. Demand is the second half of the equation. Since the supply is fixed, then obviously the price increases are being caused by increased demand. What caused the increased demand? I figure two things: 1. The internet. Running videos of machineguns on youtube night and day is bound to make new people interested in owning one. 2. Baby boomers. Lots of engineers, doctors, lawyers, dentists out there are making awesome money and have their house paid off and their kids are through school. Lots of free cash to buy the neato stuff they always wanted. |
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Bernie with B3 Armament in Chantilly, VA. A real stand-up guy. Honest, trustworthy and he knows MGs/NFA. If he doesn't know, he is the first to admit it and he will find out. IM me if you want his number. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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makorov Just curious who your friendly MG dealer is Bernie with B3 Armament in Chantilly, VA. A real stand-up guy. Honest, trustworthy and he knows MGs/NFA. If he doesn't know, he is the first to admit it and he will find out. IM me if you want his number. +1 for B3 Bernie. Great guy. |
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No shit. I wish I'd bought then, instead of "waiting till I could afford it". The idea of a $4K M16 is pure fantasy now. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Fixed supply? They quit making them for us lowly citizens in 1986. I thought price and availability were insane 10 years ago, man was I wrong, they were just getting started! No shit. I wish I'd bought then, instead of "waiting till I could afford it". The idea of a $4K M16 is pure fantasy now. $4K? I paid $800 for an Olympic Arms/Frankford Arsenal conversion ! In the 1980s! |
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Bernie with B3 Armament in Chantilly, VA. A real stand-up guy. Honest, trustworthy and he knows MGs/NFA. If he doesn't know, he is the first to admit it and he will find out. IM me if you want his number. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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makorov Just curious who your friendly MG dealer is Bernie with B3 Armament in Chantilly, VA. A real stand-up guy. Honest, trustworthy and he knows MGs/NFA. If he doesn't know, he is the first to admit it and he will find out. IM me if you want his number. I like Berine and Dennis and Jenni Todd. They always set up together at shows. Had some good deals down at knob creek. |
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I like Berine and Dennis and Jenni Todd. They always set up together at shows. Had some good deals down at knob creek. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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makorov Just curious who your friendly MG dealer is Bernie with B3 Armament in Chantilly, VA. A real stand-up guy. Honest, trustworthy and he knows MGs/NFA. If he doesn't know, he is the first to admit it and he will find out. IM me if you want his number. I like Berine and Dennis and Jenni Todd. They always set up together at shows. Had some good deals down at knob creek. Yes! Dennis & Jenny Todd are "tier 1" as well |
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it's interesting that reisings seem to have not budged they've been around 5500 for a long while
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FWIW, I believe that part of the reason the number of advertised transferable MGs for sale is that, thanks to the internet, the number of people who now know that MGs may be purchased by any law-abiding individual has increased vastly -- so that today, many, many more are being sold locally, without ever reaching the internet sales sites.
I do understand that -- first, I would rather buy locally, and many folks will pay a premium to do so. Why post an ad and deal with tire-kickers, when you can show your MG to someone FTF and the can see it's real ... and maybe they are even willing to pay over-market prices? I only post ads when I can't find someone local. That is happening less and less often. YMMV. |
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FWIW, I believe that part of the reason the number of advertised transferable MGs for sale is that, thanks to the Internet, the number of people who now know that MGs may be purchased by any law-abiding individual has increased vastly -- so that today, many, many more are being sold locally, without ever reaching the Internet sales sites. I do understand that -- first, I would rather buy locally, and many folks will pay a premium to do so. Why post an ad and deal with tire-kickers, when you can show your MG to someone FTF and the can see it's real ... and maybe they are even willing to pay over-market prices? I only post ads when I can't find someone local. That is happening less and less often. YMMV. View Quote True. ...and I'll add that at this point (30 years later) every fully transferable MG is a "one of a kind" item. Being able to see it, handle it and inspect it is critical. Lots of MGs with issues are sold online as "excellent condition, like new!". The unscrupulous dealers know that given the process, the end buyer typically has ZERO recourse if dissatisfied with a MG purchase upon final transfer. |
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FWIW, I believe that part of the reason the number of advertised transferable MGs for sale is that, thanks to the internet, the number of people who now know that MGs may be purchased by any law-abiding individual has increased vastly -- so that today, many, many more are being sold locally, without ever reaching the internet sales sites. I do understand that -- first, I would rather buy locally, and many folks will pay a premium to do so. Why post an ad and deal with tire-kickers, when you can show your MG to someone FTF and the can see it's real ... and maybe they are even willing to pay over-market prices? I only post ads when I can't find someone local. That is happening less and less often. YMMV. View Quote There is Def more desire for FTF transfers when it comes to MG due To their excessive price, not many people like paying $20k+ to some random person on the Internet for a MG they've never seen in person and then waiting 6-9 mo to find out if they got scammed or not. Plus with the market as hot as it is guns don't sit around long, they get gobbled up by buyers as soon as they are for sale giving the impression of little or no MG for sale. MG can be posted for sale, a deal struck and the ad taken down all within hours or even minutes. A lot don't even reach that point as a lot of sellers have a list of people they know who will buy their guns if they ever choose to sell, I have multiple people who have told me to contact them if I sell mine, and it's by no means a rare MG |
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FWIW, I believe that part of the reason the number of advertised transferable MGs for sale is that, thanks to the internet, the number of people who now know that MGs may be purchased by any law-abiding individual has increased vastly -- so that today, many, many more are being sold locally, without ever reaching the internet sales sites. I do understand that -- first, I would rather buy locally, and many folks will pay a premium to do so. Why post an ad and deal with tire-kickers, when you can show your MG to someone FTF and the can see it's real ... and maybe they are even willing to pay over-market prices? I only post ads when I can't find someone local. That is happening less and less often. YMMV. View Quote I tend to agree, but at the same time, I don't see local MGs for sale often. I did manage to score my M16 through a local classified ad, but that's pretty much the only one I've ever seen publicly listed in my area. And Jax is huge, with lots of money and lots of shooters. Even those I interact with on a daily or weekly basis, who are really well-connected in the firearms community up here, don't see MGs for sale very often locally. I suppose it could be that guns don't get publicly listed because closely-connected people are buying the guns before they hit the open market, so that one has to know a person who has one before that person decides to sell one. If local guns are indeed changing hands, that's the only way I can see it happening aside from gunbroker or sturmgewehr. Word of mouth in the area or local publication doesn't seem to yield much in my experience. Which is why I posted a WTB on sturm for my HK sear and was contacted within a week by a nice dealer in VA who offered me exactly what I wanted for a fantastic price and great payment terms. Couldn't have gone smoother. I think, by and large, that's the way business gets done these days. |
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one of the least popular guns. nobody wants them. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
one of the least popular guns. nobody wants them. Quoted:
it's interesting that reisings seem to have not budged they've been around 5500 for a long while yep. Ugly, awkward, finicky, expensive mags. It's like dating a fat chick who doesn't even put out ETA- Now if somebody like Richard Lage came up with a plug and play upgrade using the original receiver, then you would likely see prices sky rocket. |
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I tend to agree, but at the same time, I don't see local MGs for sale often. View Quote I sold several MGs without placing an ad. Bought my last two without seeing an ad. As mentioned, I have a phone list of people to call when I want to sell, and they also have my number when they want to sell. |
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Can I join that exclusive VIP club?
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I sold several MGs without placing an ad. Bought my last two without seeing an ad. As mentioned, I have a phone list of people to call when I want to sell, and they also have my number when they want to sell. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I tend to agree, but at the same time, I don't see local MGs for sale often. I sold several MGs without placing an ad. Bought my last two without seeing an ad. As mentioned, I have a phone list of people to call when I want to sell, and they also have my number when they want to sell. |
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Mine ran 100%, so not finicky in my experience. And I don't consider this ugly -- in fact, she was too pretty to shoot, which is why I sold her: http://www.hunt101.com/data/500/reisingrigSMALLsubguns.jpg http://www.hunt101.com/data/500/reisingreceiver.jpg View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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one of the least popular guns. nobody wants them. Quoted:
it's interesting that reisings seem to have not budged they've been around 5500 for a long while yep. Ugly, awkward, finicky, expensive mags. It's like dating a fat chick who doesn't even put out ETA- Now if somebody like Richard Lage came up with a plug and play upgrade using the original receiver, then you would likely see prices sky rocket. Mine ran 100%, so not finicky in my experience. And I don't consider this ugly -- in fact, she was too pretty to shoot, which is why I sold her: http://www.hunt101.com/data/500/reisingrigSMALLsubguns.jpg http://www.hunt101.com/data/500/reisingreceiver.jpg I am sure she had a great personality too but I still wouldn't want one |
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Got several lowers ready to roll as SOON as Nolo finishes bitch slapping the ATF.
Also, the binary triggers and bump fire stocks are relieving some of the demand. They're backasswards on holding onto them in case FHRC is anointed POTUS, she'll ban & demand their surrender. Why hold onto them? My 2¢. |
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Got several lowers ready to roll as SOON as Nolo finishes bitch slapping the ATF. Also, the binary triggers and bump fire stocks are relieving some of the demand. They're backasswards on holding onto them in case FHRC is anointed POTUS, she'll ban & demand their surrender. Why hold onto them? My 2¢. View Quote You're going to be holding onto those lowers for a long time. Do yourself a favor and SBR or sell them as they will never be a MG. the nolo case was weak to begin with, and last I heard it go rejected by a lower court and they appealed to a higher one? I don't see that ever amounting to much. Slide fires are a joke, always have been and always will be, they are good for making noise with some buddies but that's it. Most ranges don't even allow them. Binary triggers seem to be a bit more legit, especially the Echo, but at the end of the day it can at best be compare to a 2 shot burst trigger, assuming it runs right and doesn't have hammer follow issues. And when is the last time you've seen a real MG with a 2 shot burst trigger? MG are going no where, except up in price. Glad I bought when I did and my only regret is not buying another. |
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You're going to be holding onto those lowers for a long time. Do yourself a favor and SBR or sell them as they will never be a MG. the nolo case was weak to begin with, and last I heard it go rejected by a lower court and they appealed to a higher one? I don't see that ever amounting to much. Slide fires are a joke, always have been and always will be, they are good for making noise with some buddies but that's it. Most ranges don't even allow them. Binary triggers seem to be a bit more legit, especially the Echo, but at the end of the day it can at best be compare to a 2 shot burst trigger, assuming it runs right and doesn't have hammer follow issues. And when is the last time you've seen a real MG with a 2 shot burst trigger? MG are going no where, except up in price. Glad I bought when I did and my only regret is not buying another. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Got several lowers ready to roll as SOON as Nolo finishes bitch slapping the ATF. Also, the binary triggers and bump fire stocks are relieving some of the demand. They're backasswards on holding onto them in case FHRC is anointed POTUS, she'll ban & demand their surrender. Why hold onto them? My 2¢. You're going to be holding onto those lowers for a long time. Do yourself a favor and SBR or sell them as they will never be a MG. the nolo case was weak to begin with, and last I heard it go rejected by a lower court and they appealed to a higher one? I don't see that ever amounting to much. Slide fires are a joke, always have been and always will be, they are good for making noise with some buddies but that's it. Most ranges don't even allow them. Binary triggers seem to be a bit more legit, especially the Echo, but at the end of the day it can at best be compare to a 2 shot burst trigger, assuming it runs right and doesn't have hammer follow issues. And when is the last time you've seen a real MG with a 2 shot burst trigger? MG are going no where, except up in price. Glad I bought when I did and my only regret is not buying another. I'm with you, with a few exceptions. I sold off all of my MGs back in '06-08 except my Colt M16A1 and my Uzi, for more than I had paid for all of them, so those two that I kept are "free" and I've had so much fun with them, I don't care what might happen to their value. I will die with them, and while my wife hopes they will be worth $38-40k so she can sell them, she has enough else of my toys to sell that she won't starve. I would love for Nolo's case to succeed, because I and everyone could build a ton of new MGs, but I am not expecting nor planning on it happening. I do enjoy slidefire rigs. They require a completely different stance than the tucked-and-tight I've used for decades, but you actually can be pretty accurate with them if you practice, and I shoot 'em a lot at MG shoots. I love MGs, but I am aware that they could go away with one signature on a piece of paper. I have never though they should be considered "investments" but instead, an exercise in freedom and an expression of pure joy. Your Mileage May Vary. |
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Some guys fret about losing money on MGs, they always say it will happen "by the stroke of a pen".
Prince the singer just dropped dead at 57. Did you think he was anticipating that? Or did he expect to live to 100? Anyone looking for a guaranteed ROI was born on the wrong planet. I don't think I would have 100s of thousands of dollars tied up in MGs but I would buy an UZI and an M16 without a moment's hesitation. If you play it too safe, your life turns into a big fat boring waste of time. Buying a low cost MG like a Reising or MAC seems like a no-brainer to me. Shoot it for a couple years, sell it, pocket the profit. |
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yep. Ugly, awkward, finicky, expensive mags. It's like dating a fat chick who doesn't even put out ETA- Now if somebody like Richard Lage came up with a plug and play upgrade using the original receiver, then you would likely see prices sky rocket. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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one of the least popular guns. nobody wants them. Quoted:
it's interesting that reisings seem to have not budged they've been around 5500 for a long while yep. Ugly, awkward, finicky, expensive mags. It's like dating a fat chick who doesn't even put out ETA- Now if somebody like Richard Lage came up with a plug and play upgrade using the original receiver, then you would likely see prices sky rocket. I think plug and play is overrated. I'd rather have a Thompson than an M16, even though the Thompson is a one trick pony and the M16 is an erector set. How many regular guns have the ability to presto change-o into other guns? When you buy a 22 caliber revolver, you don't insist that it also fire 9mm. I studied the Reising very carefully, it seems like a nice option for a first time buyer. Especially now that MACs have jumped up in price so high. The Reising did not perform well in the jungle, because of corrosion problems. But it's actually a well designed gun. Natives of Guadalcanal probably should upgrade to a Thompson however. As far as looks go, it has that old school MP18 or lanchester wood and steel look, not a bad looking gun. |
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When you buy a 22 caliber revolver, you don't insist that it also fire 9mm. View Quote True, but... a typical .22 caliber revolver in a typical jurisdiction doesn't - cost 4-5 figures (possibly a year's disposable income for the average working Joe)
- require a 6-9 month wait if you want to buy one out-of-state - require you to research spare parts availability for a mechanical device that is, at a minimum, 30+ years old (this assumes you plan to actually shoot it, not just collect) - necessitate careful vetting of the seller (if not a dealer) to make sure you're not scammed - burn possibly hundreds of dollars of ammo per range trip (you'd have to be pretty hard-core to do this with a .22 revolver, even at current prices) Not trying to be disagreeable, I just think there's a bit of difference between the two. There are quite a few advantages to modularity, especially if you can only afford one MG. Just IMO. |
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OK, as noted above, I do support Nolo's efforts, and I stopped renewing my membership in the NRA when they OK'd the Hughes Amendment to FOPA in '86.
But: I believe machine guns are still worth sacrificing everything for, to buy at today's prices. The last new car I bought was in 1994; all were bought used, since then (that includes my two current cars, a '97 Camaro SS and a 2006 Explorer 4x4). My gun collection went from huge to just the ones I could not live without ... all to generate $$$ to buy (and feed) MGs. OK, I have a problem. I simply love full auto. Take a moment and look at the world: How many countries are there that you would actually live in, and raise a family in, that allow civilian ownership of full-autos? Now realize that there are about 180,000 transferable MGs available for civilian ownership, and probably more than half of those are in museums or in LE inventories which will never be sold to the public. And how many of those remaining MGs belong to folks who own more than one? Buy a transferable MG and you are among maybe 50,000 Americans who own one. Out of more than 330 million Americans, these 50,000 individuals get to exercise one of the few great remaining freedoms to law-abiding citizens anywhere on earth. Every time I shoot my Colt M16A1 or Uzi, I am thrilled by that. Every time I let someone else shoot them, I am thrilled by that same realization, and by their "first-time full-auto grin" when they hand it back to me. No new $30-40k vehicle has ever made me feel that way. And I don't think it ever will. Your Mileage May Vary. |
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Very well said and agreed 1000%
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And how many of those remaining MGs belong to folks who own more than one? Buy a transferable MG and you are among maybe 50,000 Americans who own one. Out of more than 330 million Americans, these 50,000 individuals get to exercise one of the few great remaining freedoms to law-abiding citizens anywhere on earth. Every time I shoot my Colt M16A1 or Uzi, I am thrilled by that. Every time I let someone else shoot them, I am thrilled by that same realization, and by their "first-time full-auto grin" when they hand it back to me. No new $30-40k vehicle has ever made me feel that way. And I don't think it ever will. Your Mileage May Vary. View Quote |
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