Machinegun prices have been hyper-escalating for several years now. I know they took a dip when Ojugears crashed the economy and a lot of people had to sell a gun or two in order to make ends meet but it seems that MG prices are on the increase each day. How high can they go? There has to be an upper limit somewhere just short of obtaining an SOT for the "Dealer Samples".

I guess because of the Lage uppers, MAC-style MGs have been going through the roof. How much is too much for a SWD nine-11? Will that ever be a $10K gun? $20K? $30K????

I am not bitching about the free market, I am just trying to understand how long these guns can continue to hyper-appreciate for what is essentially a rare 10lb. chunk of steel that is ONLY worth so much because of .gov legislation.

Been saying that about car prices for years and they keep climbing.  An long as people remain interested, the supply is fixed/decreasing, and inflation keeps going, the prices will continue to climb.

Not sure that there is an upper limit.

By weight my M16 lower is worth more than gold, most expensive aluminum ever!

But in all seriousness I don't see the prices going down. Maybe minor corrections due to say a tough economy or scares like 41p but with a ever increasing demand and a fixed or shrinking supply MG have one place to go and that's up.

Maybe people bring up the fact that if prices get too high (pick a random 5-6 figure dollar amount) that everyone will get a SOTs and buy or make post samples. The flaw with this is that first off SOT are not permitted to be used for the purpose of collecting MGs, they are for manufacturing and selling them. So you either have to start a actual business or cross your fingers and pray the ATF doesn't catch you. The ATF knows if this "loophole" and will surely crack down on it. The other issue with this is you're looking at several hundred or even thousands of dollars of taxes and fees per year to operate a SOT, unless you're buying a bunch of MGs it won't save you any money.

There will always be people with wealth looking to collect and invest in rare and expensive items. Most rich folks don't have 100% of their wealth in the bank, they own fancy homes, cars, boats, art and MGs are just one more thing people like to buy. Also there are only a handful of countries in the entire world that allow average citizens to own MGs, and we're prob the only first world country so there is also international demand as well.

The prices have spike in the last 10-15 years but my personal opinion is that is from the Internet. 20+ years ago not many ppl knew you could own MGs, suppressor, hand grenades, cannons, etc... Now with the Internet (ar15.com, YouTube, etc) it's becoming more common knowledge and instead of a few gun enthusiasts who kept the Info to them selfs you know have millions upon millions of people who not only know but are interested in owning MGs and that's where the free market steps in and the guns get sold to the highest bidder.

Honestly I wouldnt hesitate any longer than you need too. Don't cash out your 401k or anything stupid, MGs are def a risky investment but if you can afford a entry level MG and can pay cash for it I would do it. I know I have not regret it.

Pending any significant new legislation that would effect transfer of machineguns, their use, a new AWB that has a standard cap mag transfer ban, etc. I suspect machineguns will continue to climb in value.

There are a couple of issue that I assume would slow their momentum over time.

1. As the prices climb in a rate greater that wage growth/inflation the pool of folks that can afford them continues to shrink.  Any asset where the buyer pool and ultimately the liquidity of the asset is negatively effected has a downward pressure on continued price accumulation.  There are not stocks where you can do a 2 for 1 split to maintain the liquidity of the asset and unlock some level of hidden value.

2. Financing machineguns is relatively difficult and/or expensive.   Other consumer products and services generally have multiple low cost financing options.  Look at cars today.  They keep going up but its my take that a significant portion of the $65K Suburban buying public finances the shit out of those cars to make the payments reasonable.  20 years ago nobody heard of a 7 year car loan.  Same with student loans, where kids are enticed with offers of extremely generous and long term financing options that allow them to sink $200K into a humanities degree.  My take is that if everybody had to pay cash for their car and their student loans, etc. that the inflation in cost of those items would slow down.

Machineguns you are paying cash unless you are using a credit card (high interest), retirement portfolio loan (which a lot of folks don't have to begin with), or a home equity loan which is much more scrutinized today from an application process.

Will MACs reach 10K in the next couple of year, I bet they will.  However will they double over again to 20K in the following 10 years....I have significant doubts as the size of the buying pool out there who can spend $20K in cash on anything is small and who will spend it on a MAC variant is even smaller.  They will get there eventually but as pricing starts to really get into new car territory and there are little financing options I think there will be some level of decline in the rate of appreciation as the buyer pools shrinks.

Their existing price is too much. Their price 10yrs ago was too much. Their price 10yrs from now, all things being equal, will be too much.

Price is the agreement between supply and demand.

The supply of guns is fixed.

The demand, the number of interested buyers, is increasing.

So the prices are going up.


The number of buyers is increasing because the internet has alerted everyone to the fact that you actually can buy and own MGs.

The internet has also shown everyone that MGs are a very appealing thing to own.

Youtube is like a 24/7 commercial for owning an MG.


The number of buyers is also increasing because the baby boomers are at the peak of their earning power and their mortgages are paid off and their kids are done with college. So they have plenty of money to throw around.

A guy and his wife with a combined income of $250k a year and a paid-off house can easily afford to save $5,000 a month in the bank. That's some serious play money.


The prices will climb until they get so high that all the new buyers are priced out of the market.  

How high will the price of an M16 have to go until 99.99% of the new buyers just give up on owning one?  $50K?  $75K?


I think it's going to be a very high number because the supply is very small and the guns are extremely appealing to own.

I don't think most guys realize how small the supply of these guns are compared to the population of the USA.

Also, the current passion for owning full auto is not going to decrease in the future.

These guns are like the 426 hemi cuda convertables of gun collecting.  When you show up at the range with your Thompson, you're the guy with the coolest toy, period.

Too much for whom ?

 



As long as one person will pay the premium they are "to much"

Just my personal experience but people dont even notice a SBR. A suppressor might catch someones eye and prompt a question but a mag dump from a MG will turn heads. Ive even made the firing line go silent on a few occasions and one time a crowd formed at the window to watch me shoot, great fun if youre an attention whore like myself lol

My post was commentary on the artificial inflation of MG prices created by '68 GCA and Hughes.

Yep.  I chased MAC prices from $3,900 -- always coming in a day late and a dollar short while looking for a screaming deal.  I eventually bit the bullet and paid $5K a year ago.   So, I was one of those "premium payers" in last year's market.

The current prices always seem way too high .

Then a couple of years later you're glad you took the plunge when you did.

I paid $7900 for my NIB UZI a couple of years ago.  It wasn't a bad price then but it wasn't a good deal either

At the time I had the feeling I was getting chumped out of maybe $300 too much.

Tony is right..

 

One way to hedge your bets on this is to get something that is rare not just because it's an MG but because there aren't many in existence

Example: your non-colt MG will be worth $500 of the MG ban was lifted. Everyone will be off drilling holes in their own lowers on form 1s.

Your all original COLT M16 or some such will be worth somewhere a few grand because of the collector value.  MG ban or no MG ban I doubt COLT or the MIL is going to sell these to civilians again

other example.  Original C&R guns which will have collector value over the ones people start cooking up on tubes + parts kits as form 1s.   Oh how I long for the day when people start needing 922r parts for the PPSH.  They'll certainly retain their value better than a MAC

The likelihood of the ban going away is so remote I don't even bother thinking about it.

We're in a constant battle just to keep hi-cap mags and AR15s.

What sort of gigantic political push would it take to repeal the Hughes law?   Where would the political horsepower come from?

What politician would take up the politically radioactive cause of providing cheap modern machineguns to America's hobby gun collectors?


There are more likely events that could destroy your MG investment -

If they made a law where you could keep your MG but never sell it, the value would be zero.

If they made a law where you could only sell to other people who already own MGs the value would drop by 90% or more.

If they make them illegal entirely the value would drop to zero.

If they just simply stopped issuing tax stamps without changing any laws the value would drop to zero. (Sorry sir, the current wait time is 10 years.)

How high will they go?  WAY higher than they are now.

Im pretty sure this is how the Canadians laws restricting MGs works. They grandfathered them but said no transfers.

FWIW here is a rough list of the few countries in the entire world that allow MG ownership. Nearly half are a "May Issue", meaning unless you have political connections dont count on it and most are for collection purposes only so self defense, hunting and possibly even shooting them is out of the question. Of the nations that do permit it without any restrictions the only ones i could see myself ever living in would be New Zealand and Switzerland.

Austria: May Issue (For Collection Purposes Only)
Canada: Yes (Only Pre-1987 - Not Transferable)
Czech Republic: May Issue
Estonia: Yes (For Collection Purposes Only)
Finland: May issue (For Collection Purposes Only)
Iraq: Yes
New Zealand: Yes
Norway: May Issue
Pakistan: Yes
Siungapore: May Issue
Switzerland: Yes
South Africa: May Issue
United States: Yes (Only Pre-1986 - Transferable)

The Hughes amendment blows and needs repealed but when i look at this tiny list I cant help but think how lucky we are to live in the US where the only real restriction for MG ownership is our wallet.

Nothing happens in the USA unless it either

a.) Flies under political radar

or

b.) It has huge political power behind it.


Right now MG ownership is flying under radar.

You don't hear politicians talk about it much because most everyone thinks of it as already being bottled up.

If a guy wants an M16, he has to fork over $25,000 for one made 30+ years ago and get permission from the ATF.

To the average voter, that's a problem as good as solved already, there's zero crime with these heavily restricted and expensive guns.


Now suppose you could order a brand new Colt M4 from Big Ernie's Discount Machineguns for $1,000.   That wouldn't be flying under radar, that would right in everyone's face.

You'd hear politicians screaming about it every minute of every day it until it was banned.  


The point is that the Hughes amendment or some kind of restriction was inevitable.

If it didn't happen in 1986 it would have happened in 1994.

The fact that these guns are a rich man's toy might actually be the thing that keeps them legal going forward.


I think that people listed in an NFA trust are going to have to give fingerprints and have background checks same as individual transfer.

I don't think there is anything to keep the law from being revised.

What politician is going to stand up for no-fingerprint MG transfers?

will go down soon if the nolo case is successful

Agreed.

Hughes amendment combined with the NFA works as almost a loop hole of sorts. Where most countries over the years have just out right banned dangerous ordinance the US went for the heavily restricted route, making owning MGs very time consuming and extremely expensive. In the eyes of the political left and center they view them as illegal/banned and for those who REALLY want to own one youre only real restriction is the size of your bank account.

I hate to make compromises and allow restrictions when it comes to the second amendment but we must also realize that AR15.com and the shooting ranges we frequent are not a accurate representation of the US population and their feelings about firearms, try reading some of the anti-gun articles on huffington post or bloomberg and you will better understand the feelings of the average american. In short they are scared s**tless of ar15s, high cap mags and people with concealed carry permits, if these people found out that REAL assault rifles could be bought at wal mart there would literally be riots in the streets. And im not talking the few hundred pathetic anti-gun moms that showed up at the NRA conventions, but tens of thousands of people in every major city across the nation.

I would love to see the hughes amendment and the NFA repealed. Sure i would loose the value of my MG but it would allow me to own MGs i could never afford or be allowed to buy (everything post 86).  But there is no support for loosening restrictions on MGs and if by some cold chance in hell a case like Nolo succeeded i foresee politicians swiftly passing even more restrictive laws. I would rather own one $25,000 M16 than no $1,000 M16s.


Probably a very slim chance, but i wish him the best of luck.

Honestly if the case was that strong you would be seeing the price of MGs falling right now as everyone would be trying to unload their investment before it was worthless.

I thought I was the only one who sweat bullets when I bought my MGs back 15-16 years ago.

At some point, you'd think the prices have to level off.

Once they get to the $40k range, that's some chunk of change.

I haven't spent that much on one gun yet, and really can't. I'd have to sell off a couple to buy something like that.

Then again, how many folks in the middle class own an expensive truck, boat, motorcycle, or other depreciating asset?

They are already out of the price range I am willing to spend on something that I won't be using daily.

At least a $40K vehicle will be driven pretty often while a $25K M-16 would sit in my safe/safe deposit box 360 days out of the year as I wouldn't want to use it for fear of damaging it.

I honestly don't know how much my opinion on the matter would change if I made 5x what I make now (which would be substantial income for this area) as I just can't see spending that kind of money on a chunk of aluminum.

My parents just retired within the last few years and they are sitting on more money than they know what to due with. They are not super wealthy, just middle class incomes, but once the kids are gone, the home and car is paid for there are some people out there that have some money to spent.




For under $100 a year you can get insurance to cover the full current market value of a MG (not the original purchase price) so for nearly what it costs to rent a safety deposit box you can just insure your NFA firearms and keep them at your home.

I shoot at most 5-10 times a year. Some would say owning a MG would be a waste if you shoot so infrequently. I look at the situation and say when i do get the chance to go i want the most fun firearm i can possibly shoot.

I don't think its an apples to apples comparison to compare a $40k MG to a $40k new car.

The better comparison would be to compare an MG to an old collector type car.  $40k would get you a really cherry completely restored 1957 t-bird.

If you owned a 57 t-bird you wouldn't necessarily drive it much but when you did you'd have pretty much the coolest car in town.

The appeal is the coolness of it.


The nice thing is that after you own the t-bird for 10 years you can sell it a nice profit.

If you own a new car ten years it's worth bbbbbbbttttttttttttt   (fart sound)


Take this advice - scrape up enough money to buy a MAC10.  You'll absolutely love it, it will be your favorite gun.

Hold it for a year, if you don't like it sell it for a nice profit

I've said this several times, car manufacturers are alway doing anything they can to get you into a car or bike and there is pretty much infinite supply of most cars in the 50k range. I literally bought a Harley a few years ago with only $18 in my bank account. Not going to happen with a mg.

I was more meaning that they get stored more than shot in terms of people not wanting to risk damaging them due a KB or other issue that wouldn't be covered by insurance.  I have all of my firearms insured right now but even Collectibles Insurance would be more that $100/yr to cover a $25K M-16.

I don't think new cars or bikes are much of a comparison to MG collecting.

There are too many differences.

Ford sold 645,000 F-150 pickups in 2014.   Total vehicle sales were around 17 million.

People are in a brainwashed frenzy to buy cars, they buy vehicles they totally cannot afford by taking massive 7 year loans.

The whole time the value of the vehicles is deflating like air leaking out of a balloon.


Compare that massive amount of money changing hands to a tiny collector market like MG collecting.

How many 1921 Thompsons traded hands in 2014?   Maybe 15 or 20?

The MG market doesn't need car type loans to function, there are enough rich guys to keep it churning.

You ever see the kind of prices MGs bring at auction?  People pay stupid ego prices and then a big fat buyer's commission on top.

Good luck in New Zealand.  You CANNOT ever shoot your machine gun.  Find "kiwitedferny" on YouTube.

No it wouldn't. From eastern, that would be less than $100/year.

As always good info.

Im not really familiar with international laws, just found the info i posted on a website and thought it was interesting. Just crazy that of the 195 nations in the world there are only 12 that allow MG ownership and of those almost all impose some sort of restrictions.

i can save way more then 5000 a month on 250k a year....  i dont know what your monthly expenses are

that sounds cool to me  

yea but your 40k vehicle will be worthless in five years, and the MG would still be worth way more even using it
every other weekend.

Wanna really see a crowd form an M2 HB will definitely do that. That was how my Friday last week went.

Then again now that I have figured out how to accurately bump fire the scar and 556mm AK from the shoulder I can whore a lot of attention with was less money spent than what a FA AR costs. Yeah I know its not a real FA but if we are talking about attracting attention then the fact that people think I have a FA SCAR in the first place is all it takes to get them drooling. lol

I never regretted buying my FA. My only regret was not having more $$$ to buy more. That's always the problem. These things keep going up but my disposable income doesn't

If I understand correctly that's how it works in Canada.

I would run the crap out of it. when it breaks I'll figure out how to fix it. Guys like John Andrewski do awesome work. I sent him my Sten with broken welds and other things that were not done right when the gun was made and it came back looking and running like a new gun. He ever cerekoted it for $100 less than he normally would since we were doing all the other work anyway.

IMO prices have leveled off except for a few odds and ends like FNC sears and MACs. Possibly a slight uptick but not much.
Compare this to other collectable markets such as classic Ferraris where prices have gone nuts.

I never understood the rational of someone wanting the prices to come down.
Would you wait to buy stocks hoping the prices come down further ?
What would you expect after you buy in; the tide to magically turn ?

Why not buy an appreciating asset now ?

I watched the same logic leave many behind in the collectible pinball machine market waiting for "their machine" to come down like back in the old days. Meanwhile most doubled or tripled again.

Most people waiting for prices to drop are not looking at MGs as an investment, usually they are firearms enthusiasts who would like to own a MG without breaking the bank. They're not trying to time the market, they just can't afford a MG at current prices and hope they go down to a level they could. But the funny part is even if the prices dropped say 50% they would still be complaining they are to expensive and still waiting for them to drop a little bit more.

I can promise I'll never buy one at today's prices.

I think the in-demand ones are still going up, even if not at the rate they did from around 2010-now.  For instance, I think HK sears are still going up at least 10% a year, whereas a RR HK like a full auto hk91 barely appreciates.  The market for the RRs in the HK auto market is significantly smaller than the sear market.  Te modularity of the sear makes registered receivers far less desirable, especially since they're all conversions anyway.  It's not like you're buying a factory MG.

Likewise, I think that m16s and Uzis are continuing to appreciate to some degree, along with historic weapons like Thompsons and mp40s.  And RDIASs and RLLs have gone crazy in the past year.

MACs have seen noticeable increases with the advent and popularity of the Lage uppers, etc.  They'll continue to go up.

Where I'm not sure you'll see much movement is in M60s, lesser-known subguns like stens (if they aren't c&r), AKs, augs, etc.  The demand for those isn't as outrageous as the others.

Personally, I don't entirely treat my guns as investments, but it certainly makes them easier to justify in my life.  If I'm making and average of 10% a year on my investment for my M16 and my HK sear, I'm more than comfortable retaining them.