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Posted: 7/15/2017 4:54:43 PM EDT
[#1]
Surge isn't anywhere close to being over. The number of forms submitted leading up to 41F was crushing - Silencer Shop alone submitted 4-6 months of forms at the 11th hour.
That said, it will eventually subside - that's why I haven't stopped buying, especially with the deals out there. Once it does, they'll be a short window of time where approvals are short, but that will cause another influx of form submissions. |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 5:17:29 PM EDT
[#2]
One year.
My dealer has seen one July 4, 2016 approval |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 5:59:29 PM EDT
[#3]
stupid question time:
can you apply for a stamp without having purchased said supressor yet? Like I apply for 1 now, and in the year waiting period I acquire one through a dealer (I realize it would stay with them till the stamp is approved) |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 6:21:36 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
stupid question time: can you apply for a stamp without having purchased said supressor yet? Like I apply for 1 now, and in the year waiting period I acquire one through a dealer (I realize it would stay with them till the stamp is approved) ETA- my local shop has been seeing late May through mid July over the last few weeks. |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 7:03:07 PM EDT
[#5]
literally a year
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Posted: 7/15/2017 7:03:34 PM EDT
[#6]
5 months.
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Posted: 7/15/2017 7:06:38 PM EDT
[#7]
Right now, you would still be at a year, I imagine. If you can, wait six months. Over a year since purchase of three cans and still no joy for me.
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Posted: 7/15/2017 7:41:06 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
5 months. |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 8:11:45 PM EDT
[#9]
I agree with 5 months
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Posted: 7/15/2017 8:15:13 PM EDT
[#10]
The surge is almost over, I only have 3 form 4s left from pre-41F and I'm already receiving post-41F form 4s. Form 3 times are also dropping to 2~3 weeks. The end is near!
As for how long the wait will be is anyone's guess at this point. |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 8:25:34 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
5 months. |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 10:24:36 PM EDT
[#12]
Best guess. Between 6 months and a year.
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Posted: 7/15/2017 10:33:07 PM EDT
[#13]
Inside 7.
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Posted: 7/15/2017 10:36:49 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Right now, you would still be at a year, I imagine. If you can, wait six months. Over a year since purchase of three cans and still no joy for me. |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 10:53:36 PM EDT
[#15]
My quess is 9 months if submited today. I think the ATF will deligate other tasks to reviewer's once the pre 41f pile is gone.
I have 2 Form 4s with January pending dates and my quess on those is around October-November. Hope I'm wrong and the wait shortens but will just have to wait and see. |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 10:57:56 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That's weird logic. The wait is long, so wait longer? |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 11:00:57 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
One year. My dealer has seen one July 4, 2016 approval |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 11:01:36 PM EDT
[#18]
My paperwork was submitted on Jun 9th and the ATF cashed the check on 6/17. No clue when I actually receive the stamp, but feel like that's a good sign.
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Posted: 7/15/2017 11:04:26 PM EDT
[#19]
No way it'd be a year wait if submitted today. There's 2 for sure that's posted receiving their stamps and they went pending in August and one in September. Most that are coming back now went pending 3rd and 4th week of July. Submissions post 41f tanked big time; especially after August
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Posted: 7/15/2017 11:29:02 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Because they will be working on the pickup picture load for quite some time. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
That's weird logic. The wait is long, so wait longer? Explain how waiting until January to submit the Form 4 will be faster. 
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Posted: 7/15/2017 11:31:42 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
My quess is 9 months if submited today. I think the ATF will deligate other tasks to agents once the pre 41f pile is gone.. 
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Posted: 7/15/2017 11:37:17 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I want to believe! |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 11:37:29 PM EDT
[#23]
Unless ATF cuts staff it would likely be approved this year. It would seem some of the reviewers are working
around the clock. My last two stamps were mailed 7/12/16 and both were approved on the 4th of July. Approval dates seem to be every day of the week including holidays. It won't be 3 months of their current pace to get thru the rest of the pre forms. |
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Posted: 7/15/2017 11:46:41 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The surge is almost over, I only have 3 form 4s left from pre-41F and I'm already receiving post-41F form 4s. Form 3 times are also dropping to 2~3 weeks. The end is near!
As for how long the wait will be is anyone's guess at this point. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 12:02:13 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Surge isn't anywhere close to being over. The number of forms submitted leading up to 41F was crushing - Silencer Shop alone submitted 4-6 months of forms at the 11th hour. That said, it will eventually subside - that's why I haven't stopped buying, especially with the deals out there. Once it does, they'll be a short window of time where approvals are short, but that will cause another influx of form submissions. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 12:06:23 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What's the latest post-41F you've seen so far? |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 1:12:14 AM EDT
[#27]
I'm thinking October/November. I just sent in a form 1 and I'd like to think the workload will be lighter a year into 41F.
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Posted: 7/16/2017 1:50:53 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What's the latest post-41F you've seen so far? 
Safe to say that's a fluke though. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 7:53:39 AM EDT
[#29]
One day faster than if you submit tomorrow.
In theory at least. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 8:20:22 AM EDT
[#30]
It feels like the dip in sales is over. We've sold more cans June and July this year than June and July last year. But we are just one SOT out of several thousand.
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Posted: 7/16/2017 8:53:59 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It feels like the dip in sales is over. We've sold more cans June and July this year than June and July last year. But we are just one SOT out of several thousand. 
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Posted: 7/16/2017 9:01:50 AM EDT
[#32]
I got back a form 4 this week that was submitted in early July of 2016 by Silencer Shop, if that helps any.
I've got two more pending, one done in June and another in July of 2017. I'm keeping my hopes up that I'll get both of those back late 2017/early 2018. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 10:01:36 AM EDT
[#33]
I think wait times will be 6-8 months. Once people hear that wait times are low, they start buying again. "Oh, the 41F backlog is cleared? I should buy..."
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Posted: 7/16/2017 10:14:32 AM EDT
[#34]
Kicking myself for not going ahead and buying something last fall. Now I'm sitting here wanting a mask or two. I can do 6 months if that's a realistic expectation
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Posted: 7/16/2017 10:25:58 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Kicking myself for not going ahead and buying something last fall. Now I'm sitting here wanting a mask or two. I can do 6 months if that's a realistic expectation |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 10:39:23 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Kicking myself for not going ahead and buying something last fall. Now I'm sitting here wanting a mask or two. I can do 6 months if that's a realistic expectation 
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Posted: 7/16/2017 11:00:23 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That's my guess as well. Anybody that has bought one by today will have it before the year is over. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 11:22:26 AM EDT
[#38]
so, people think if you buy today, you might get it by december? What if you ordered in March and check cashed in april? Does that mean I should have it by october?
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Posted: 7/16/2017 11:23:41 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wow. That's surprising but a good thing. Run more of those 15%-20% off everything in your cart and you'll see even more sales. And that's not at all a slight against HB, I've spent a few hundred on a ccessoriws from them in 2017 and they've been great to me. I truly hope their business is profitable long term. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 11:53:33 AM EDT
[#40]
Well, I bought an Optimus on 7/8/17 from Silencer Shop on a trust.
Form 4 was submitted on 7/12/17 so consider this a TAG to this thread and we shall see how it goes from here. Damn, I hope I can get this by the end of the year.
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Posted: 7/16/2017 11:54:10 AM EDT
[#41]
My form 3s are taking 20-25 days right now. I have three form 4s, I sent for customers in January that I am still waiting for.
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Posted: 7/16/2017 12:03:36 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sales of witdgets cans be deceiving. If they were selling their widget for msrp last June because demand was high but are selling everything at 20% off now, number of widgets might be higher but you'd want to compare net dollars. And that's not at all a slight against HB, I've spent a few hundred on a accessories from them in 2017 and they've been great to me. I truly hope their business is profitable long term. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 2:28:21 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We've sold more cans June and July this year than June and July last year. Last year was a bubble that popped in July, and hopefully things will settle back down and wait times will drop significantly. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 3:11:43 PM EDT
[#44]
I hope you guys are right. I have an Omega that should be approved soon but it's the Hybrid I submitted in mid-March that I really want. I'd love to have it by September for youth deer season but I think the 41f hump will screw me. I bought a can last April and had the stamp by early Sept.
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Posted: 7/16/2017 3:53:20 PM EDT
[#45]
6-9 months if submitted today.
My 8/26/16 pending date got approved 7/14/17, I'd say they are through the thick of it. If they kept working all the overtime at the NFA branch it could be < 6 months, but I guess the bosses will cut down the OT as they catch back up. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 4:56:31 PM EDT
[#46]
My 09/11/16 got approved 07/09/17.
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Posted: 7/16/2017 5:11:25 PM EDT
[#47]
4 months.
Post 41F forms are started to come back. It appears most of the backlog is flushed. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 5:38:52 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
4 months. Post 41F forms are started to come back. It appears most of the backlog is flushed. For example, let's say they were all caught up right now and "normal" approval times were down to 90 days. That would mean forms submitted in April would be getting approved now. In reality forms from the end of last July are being approved now, so there's still a 8-9 month backlog from "normal" times. It all depends on whether they keep working extra to get through that backlog or immediately go back to their "normal" pace. If it ends up being the latter I think times will go down very gradually. |
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Posted: 7/16/2017 5:38:54 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
4 months. Post 41F forms are started to come back. It appears most of the backlog is flushed. I looked on NFA Tracker and I've charted the trajectory of Form 4s based on recent data. 
Looking good! 
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Posted: 7/16/2017 7:15:50 PM EDT
[#50]
I'm ready for these approvals to start speeding up. I'm waiting on 3 cans submitted between September and January. I'd be willing to bet if you submitted today you would have your can in 5-7 months.
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