With the understanding that all handgun cartridges pretty much suck for "instant incapacitation" in general, let's consider a few things.
The argument that 9mm is practically as effective as .40 is always based upon using "modern premium" bullets. That's fine, as long as you have them. But what if you don't? I think I'll take that nice, wide meplat of the .40 over the round nosed 9mm or .45 ACP, thank you.
I've read the FBI's treatise on why it's switching to 9mm. In the end, it boils down to wanting to better their qualification scores because the majority of FBI agents have desk jobs*. Moving down to a smaller caliber helps with checking the requal box. One hundred years ago, .32 S&W Long was considered sufficient for law enforcement too... until it wasn't.
Some police departments are following the FBI's lead. This is not due to any deficiency of the .40, but due to money. The FBI switch gives them the fig leaf to go to a less expensive cartridge while increasing/maintaining requal rates with the same/less annual training (and associated costs). Follow the money for the motivation.
9 is fine, 40 is fine, 45 is fine. With modern premium hollowpoints they all pretty much do the same thing. Myself, I select the cartridge that's a little bigger and heavier than the 9mm with - worst case - a big meplat that neither the 9 or 45 possesses.
(* "9mm: The Choice of America's Elite Accountants"
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