http://www.guns.com/2014/01/23/kalashnikov-concern-shipping-200000-guns-north-america-2014/

So it seems Izhmash is going to be shipping at least 80k rifles and shotguns into the US and Canada a year for 5 years.  Is it possible we are about to see the bottom drop out of AK prices?

This was posted a week or two ago. Big discussion on it in that thread

they know the money is in feeding them ammo not making the rifles

I hope so!



 

I hope this new deal brings prices back down.

I highly doubt that will happen, at least there will be plenty of supply, but keep in mind there are 100m gun owners and I bet at least 25% of them love AK's.

Increasing supply will not increase demand. A standard 5.45 saiga is around ~$600 on gunbroker right now. That is the current price set by current supply and demand.

If we increase the supply by importing 80k rifles, prices MUST come down if the distributors hope to sell them all. If not they will just have a bunch of rifles on the shelves. My guess is prices will drop back to $300 for sporter style saigas. Probably not immediately at import but several months after.

VO

I would love to see some 7.62x39 Saigas for ~$300 again. Or $400 for the ones with the front end conversion.

Don't you think that they will be 'sporters', not military-style AKs?

They have no problem selling them at 500 plus, why would they accept any less. I agree though, I would love to see old prices again too. I Highly doubt it will happen. I think we are in a current state of "The New Norm". Doesn't look so great, especially ammo.

What is the new norm for ammo?  For the most part im finding ammo a little cheaper than it was a couple of years ago.

Because once they increase the supply, they'll start to realize they'll have trouble selling them at 500 if the market is flooded. We will see lower prices. It's the way the market works, like the way we have a lull right now in sales and prices are coming down.

Exactly, somethings will be plentiful others will not be...like dirty cheap ammo.

Im very familiar with the laws of supply and demand, but there are other market forces at work here. I think we will be settled down for a few years until 2016ish or so, but I really dont see prices going down to the good ole days.

The thing people are forgetting about that 80K number is that, all by itself, it's somewhat meaningless.  I don't think anyone knows for certain that this 80K number represents a substantial increase from what was already being imported.  People are speculating that it represents a substantial increase, but without knowing how many Saigas, Baikals and other Russian weapons were being imported prior, it's hard to guess what effect - if any - it might have on the AK market.  For all we know, maybe there were 60K being imported per year prior to RWS being granted exclusivity.  If something like that were to be the case, we wouldn't be talking about a huge increase in imports.

I did read in one article that since 1996, "over a million" Russian weapons have been imported into the U.S.  That would average about 55K per year.  While averages can be misleading, if you assume that number is approximately correct then 80K firearms only represents a 25K increase.  Not a particularly large increase in a market with 80M gun owners.

Also keep in mind that A.) That 80,000 number includes not just AK's, but also shotguns, handguns and hunting rifles; B.) To-date, the Russians haven't been known to possess stellar skills with their sales projections or consistent production ability, and C.) Domestic arms makers could lobby the government to restrict import numbers, or otherwise put a wrench in the import process.  We know that Kalashnikov's director (Konstantine Busygin) was denied a visa to attend SHOT Show this year.  It could be that the political skids are already being greased by domestic gun makers.

In other words, I wouldn't be busting open the champagne bottles just yet.