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Posted: 5/7/2008 6:34:44 AM EDT
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Israel: Iran could have nukes by '09
By YAAKOV KATZ AND HERB KEINON

With Iran racing forward with its nuclear program, Israel now believes the Islamic Republic will master centrifuge technology and be able to begin enriching uranium on a military scale this year, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

The new assessment moves up Israel's forecasts on Teheran's nuclear program by almost a full year - from 2009 to the end of 2008. According to the new timeline, Iran could have a nuclear weapon by the middle of next year.

Iran, a senior defense official said on Tuesday, had encountered numerous technical obstacles on its way to enriching uranium but was now on track to master the technology needed to enrich uranium within six months.

Israel is also concerned that Teheran is developing a cruise missile that can evade interception by the Arrow, the IDF's anti-ballistic missile defense system. Iran is suspected of having smuggled Ukrainian X-55 cruise missiles and using them as models for an independent, domestic project. A cruise missile, which flies at low altitudes to dodge radar detection and interception, could be used to carry a nuclear warhead.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Tuesday that Israel had the ability to create the tools needed to ensure its continued existence. Hinting at Iran, Olmert said that nothing in the world could undermine or bring an end to Israel's existence.

In a speech to a Keren Hayesod group, Olmert said, "I am asking that you take this with you and tell it to your communities everywhere - the people of Israel are strong, the State of Israel is strong, there is no enemy that can destroy us."

"We will not place ourselves in a position where anyone will, in an effective manner, threaten us with destruction, because if there was one thing that has changed since the establishment of the State of Israel 60 years ago until today, it is not that here the Jews are safe in every situation, in every condition and that there will not be any dangers," Olmert said. "There are also dangers here, like in many other places.

"But here, my friends, the Jewish people can fight, and when it needs to, it fights, and when it fights, it wins."

Last week, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said during a visit to the US that Teheran would likely achieve control of the technology to enrich uranium for an atomic bomb within a year.

In the past, the consensus in the intelligence community was that Iran had encountered technical difficulties with fuel enrichment and that its attainment of nuclear capability was much further off, Mofaz said, but a recent IDF Military Intelligence assessment showed that the Islamic Republic could go nuclear before the end of the decade.

Also Tuesday, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer warned that more nations would follow the examples of Iran and North Korea and work to develop nuclear weapons. He said that the possibility that Syria was building a weapons-capable nuclear reactor before the IAF destroyed it on September 6 showed that NATO must find an answer to ballistic missile threats.

"The nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea threaten to set in motion a domino effect that will be difficult to contain," de Hoop Scheffer said in a speech at a missile defense conference at the Czech Foreign Ministry.

"If there is a serious suspicion that in Syria there was a facility in the making, it only increases the arguments... for finding a collective answer to a ballistic missile defense threat," the NATO chief said.

CIA Director Michael Hayden said last month that the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor would have produced enough plutonium for one or two bombs within a year of becoming operational.

"The number of states that possess ballistic missiles is already growing, slowly and surely," de Hoop Scheffer said. "The proliferation of ballistic missiles is a reality that concerns us all."

AP contributed to this report.


Link Posted: 5/7/2008 6:36:46 AM EDT
[#1]
Obama will save us.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 6:38:38 AM EDT
[#2]
Whatever it takes to put BHO's AWB on the back burner
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 6:40:23 AM EDT
[#3]
There is a very small window of time left to attempt to slow their work down.  It almost certainly would have to involve both the US and Israel to pull it off.  We can be sure Obama won't lift a finger, so it's do-or-don't-do for GW.  Shut up or put up.  Sanctions have been a joke and they will not stop their program.

We either live with a nuclear Iran or we don't, and we and Israel cannot afford to live with it.  This summer could be very, very hot.

HH
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 7:39:33 AM EDT
[#4]

Quoted:
Whatever it takes to put BHO's AWB on the back burner


Indeed.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 7:54:32 AM EDT
[#5]
Mexico is a greater threat to our national sovereignty than Iran will ever be.

Link Posted: 5/7/2008 7:56:47 AM EDT
[#6]
More fear mongering.

The sky is falling.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 7:57:05 AM EDT
[#7]
I didnt take the time to search for report source but i've been told on several occasion due to the militant nature of Israel they have a better system of intellegence than we do.

If premtive action is required on Iran Israel will beat us to the punch and expect us to back them up im afraid.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 7:59:53 AM EDT
[#8]

Quoted:
Mexico is a greater threat to our national sovereignty than Iran will ever be.



Mexico isn't trying to nuke us or our allies.  We aren't dealing with the Russians here; Iran will use nukes if it has them.  Their President has publicly stated his intent to nuke Israel on several occasions.  
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:01:57 AM EDT
[#9]

Quoted:
Mexico is a greater threat to our national sovereignty than Iran will ever be.



no shit!

they aren't just next door, they're already fucking here.

the iranians are on the other side of the globe, for Christ's sake...
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:02:06 AM EDT
[#10]
If they produce nukes by 2009, I predict they will be using rudimentary stone tools by 2300 and will have invented the wheel by 3000.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:03:22 AM EDT
[#11]

Quoted:
More fear mongering.

The sky is falling.


Exactly.

Much of the world is extremely concerned about Iran having nukes, but it's only fear-mongering.

It appears that GW, Cheney, the UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia and many countries in the ME are fear-mongering idiots after all.

Great insight, Dance.

HH
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:03:41 AM EDT
[#12]
If israel thinks iran is such a threat why dont they do something about it.Let them spend their (our) money and send their people off to die.Sounds like they are trying to get us in yet another war.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:04:28 AM EDT
[#13]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Mexico is a greater threat to our national sovereignty than Iran will ever be.



no shit!

they aren't just next door, they're already fucking here.

the iranians are on the other side of the globe, for Christ's sake...


...and they would NEVER supply nukes to a group intent on destroying the US or Israel!

Brilliant!

HH
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:04:58 AM EDT
[#14]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Mexico is a greater threat to our national sovereignty than Iran will ever be.



Mexico isn't trying to nuke us or our allies.  We aren't dealing with the Russians here; Iran will use nukes if it has them.  Their President has publicly stated his intent to nuke Israel on several occasions.  


my take on that: nationalistic pablum for the masses, the better to keep them from revolting against the theocracy.  tough talk, nothing more.  i seriously doubt iran has a national death wish...
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:05:32 AM EDT
[#15]



www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,17062320-23109,00.html

October 28, 2005
IRAN may be only six months from having the necessary means to make an atomic bomb, Israeli Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom said today


www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/05/21/iran.nuclear/index.html

May 21, 2006
Iran is only months away from joining the club of nations that can make a nuclear weapon, Israel's prime minister said in a recent interview.


www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/20/iran.leeglendinning

February 20 2007
Iran could be as little as six months away from being able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale, having mastered the technology since last August, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog warned in an interview published today.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:07:51 AM EDT
[#16]
<---- My surprised face.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:15:12 AM EDT
[#17]
Pure fear mongering and propaganda to get the USA to do somethi ng about Iran.

Chess not checkers HH, don't fall for the propaganda.  


Quoted:

Quoted:
More fear mongering.

The sky is falling.


Exactly.

Much of the world is extremely concerned about Iran having nukes, but it's only fear-mongering.

It appears that GW, Cheney, the UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia and many countries in the ME are fear-mongering idiots after all.

Great insight, Dance.

HH
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:19:45 AM EDT
[#18]
Comments:   202-456-1111
Switchboard: 202-456-1414

Please...do us all a favor and let the WH know your thoughts--quickly!  I'm sure they'll want you to weigh in on what's really going on here.  I'm sure they're wanting someone to help their thinking and you're just the one to do it.

Do it...for the children!

HH


Quoted:
Pure fear mongering and propaganda to get the USA to do somethi ng about Iran.

Chess not checkers HH, don't fall for the propaganda.  


Quoted:

Quoted:
More fear mongering.

The sky is falling.


Exactly.

Much of the world is extremely concerned about Iran having nukes, but it's only fear-mongering.

It appears that GW, Cheney, the UK, Israel, Saudi Arabia and many countries in the ME are fear-mongering idiots after all.

Great insight, Dance.

HH
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:20:28 AM EDT
[#19]

Quoted:
Obama will save us.


Yep.

He's going to stop global warming and cure cancer, too!
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:22:41 AM EDT
[#20]
According to Israeli estimates, Iran was supposed to have the bomb in 2003... and then in 2005.... and then in 2007.... and now .... Israeli intel isn't worth the toilet paper it's written on. They're just trying to stir the "OH NOES!!!1" before Bush leaves office so we do what they won't. They know once Bush is out of Office, they are on their own... and they are going to do everything they can right now to press us into an attack on Iran... whether it is in our interests right now or not.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:24:16 AM EDT
[#21]
Doesn't the White house already have a subscription to the leftist/socialist Jerusalem Post that you got the article from?

Israel has been predicting that Iran will have nukes in "6 months" for how many years now?  5? 6?  I guess 6 months doesn't mean the same thing in Israel that it does in the rest of the world.


Quoted:
Comments:   202-456-1111
Switchboard: 202-456-1414

Please...do us all a favor and let the WH know your thoughts--quickly!  I'm sure they'll want you to weigh in on what's really going on here.  I'm sure they're wanting someone to help their thinking and you're just the one to do it.

Do it...for the children!

HH


Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:24:48 AM EDT
[#22]

Quoted:



www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,17062320-23109,00.html

October 28, 2005
IRAN may be only six months from having the necessary means to make an atomic bomb, Israeli Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom said today


www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/05/21/iran.nuclear/index.html

May 21, 2006
Iran is only months away from joining the club of nations that can make a nuclear weapon, Israel's prime minister said in a recent interview.


www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/20/iran.leeglendinning

February 20 2007
Iran could be as little as six months away from being able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale, having mastered the technology since last August, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog warned in an interview published today.



Yep, another year, another 'OMG, the sky is falling' from Israel…
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:27:39 AM EDT
[#23]

Quoted:
<---- My surprised face.



4 Vanguard Class SSBN's each with 16 Trident D5's is our 'not overly concerned' face…




Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:28:20 AM EDT
[#24]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Mexico is a greater threat to our national sovereignty than Iran will ever be.



Mexico isn't trying to nuke us or our allies.  We aren't dealing with the Russians here; Iran will use nukes if it has them.  Their President has publicly stated his intent to nuke Israel on several occasions.  


No they won't... for the same reason we never used nukes on Russia. They will be annihilated and they know it. Contrary to what many here believe.... the mullahs love power and the perks it brings them... they don't want to be turned to glass anytime soon.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:31:28 AM EDT
[#25]

Quoted:
Yep, another year, another 'OMG, the sky is falling' from Israel…


Do you think Israel hopes to get something from their "sky is falling" play?

Airplanes maybe, money?
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:33:51 AM EDT
[#26]
hey, didn't you guys get the memo?  Syria is now the new hot WMD country to invade!
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:34:38 AM EDT
[#27]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
Mexico is a greater threat to our national sovereignty than Iran will ever be.



Mexico isn't trying to nuke us or our allies.  We aren't dealing with the Russians here; Iran will use nukes if it has them.  Their President has publicly stated his intent to nuke Israel on several occasions.  


No they won't... for the same reason we never used nukes on Russia. They will be annihilated and they know it. Contrary to what many here believe.... the mullahs love power and the perks it brings them... they don't want to be turned to glass anytime soon.



Correct, the Mullahs are the richest clique in Iran, Ayatollah Khatamie is reputed to be the richest person in Iran… they love power and money, but they are not nuts.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:35:34 AM EDT
[#28]

Quoted:
hey, didn't you guys get the memo?  Syria is now the new hot WMD country to invade!


No No... after the air strike on Syria in Sept., Iran is back in fad now.... I guess you missed the latest memo.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:35:48 AM EDT
[#29]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Yep, another year, another 'OMG, the sky is falling' from Israel…


Do you think Israel hopes to get something from their "sky is falling" play?

Airplanes maybe, money?



Right wing Pres on the way out, financially tougher times ahead… money is my bet.

'Give us more advanced weaponry and aid for free and we won't attack Iran'
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:38:01 AM EDT
[#30]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
Mexico is a greater threat to our national sovereignty than Iran will ever be.



Mexico isn't trying to nuke us or our allies.  We aren't dealing with the Russians here; Iran will use nukes if it has them.  Their President has publicly stated his intent to nuke Israel on several occasions.  


No they won't... for the same reason we never used nukes on Russia. They will be annihilated and they know it. Contrary to what many here believe.... the mullahs love power and the perks it brings them... they don't want to be turned to glass anytime soon.



Correct, the Mullahs are the richest clique in Iran, Ayatollah Khatamie is reputed to be the richest person in Iran… they love power and money, but they are not nuts.


I thought Rafsanjani was supposed to be the richest of Mullahs in Iran.... something like $2.5 billion. He and his family have substantial holdings in various enterprises in Iran, everything from automakers to oil businesses.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:40:43 AM EDT
[#31]
Apparently your density preceeds you.  I didn't post the article, sharp guy.



I'm sure the US uses the Jpost as their Intel source, too....brilliantly stated!

HH


Quoted:
Doesn't the White house already have a subscription to the leftist/socialist Jerusalem Post that you got the article from?

Israel has been predicting that Iran will have nukes in "6 months" for how many years now?  5? 6?  I guess 6 months doesn't mean the same thing in Israel that it does in the rest of the world.


Quoted:
Comments:   202-456-1111
Switchboard: 202-456-1414

Please...do us all a favor and let the WH know your thoughts--quickly!  I'm sure they'll want you to weigh in on what's really going on here.  I'm sure they're wanting someone to help their thinking and you're just the one to do it.

Do it...for the children!

HH


Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:47:12 AM EDT
[#32]

Quoted:



www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,17062320-23109,00.html

October 28, 2005
IRAN may be only six months from having the necessary means to make an atomic bomb, Israeli Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom said today


www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/05/21/iran.nuclear/index.html

May 21, 2006
Iran is only months away from joining the club of nations that can make a nuclear weapon, Israel's prime minister said in a recent interview.


www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/20/iran.leeglendinning

February 20 2007
Iran could be as little as six months away from being able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale, having mastered the technology since last August, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog warned in an interview published today.




And all the other intel outfits have been saying that it would be 10 years before Iran had nukes........they have been saying that for 15 years...
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:49:00 AM EDT
[#33]
To our naysayers present:

The Iranians are arming themselves rapidly.  In addition to their nuclear weapons program, they have an active ballistic missile program.  Ballistic missiles are NOT defensive weapons, especially when fitted with weapons of mass destruction.  Ballistic missiles are designed to force one nation's strategic policy on another nation or to destroy other nations if required.  Iran is building new launch sites all over the nation.  Some would be exceptionally difficult to destroy.  They are extending their missile reach such that in a very short time, they will have the capability to put every major urban area in Europe at risk of total annihilation.

Now WHY would Iran be building up her arms inventory, to include nuclear weapons?  Iran is oil rich...why not just use the latent economic power to enrich their citizens and increase their world influence?  IMHO, Iran does this for two basic reasons:  (1) Iranians see themselves as the greatest race and society in the ME.  Remember, they were the biggest empire in South Asia for many hundreds of years.  Many Iranians would very much like to achieve such lofty powers once again.  Oil and nukes is the easiest way to nirvana as they see it.  (2)  Iran is hard-core Shia Muslim.  They actively support the Muslim terror jihad against the west, most especially, us.  They have no love for the Arabic Sunnis (They see the Saudis as a bunch of lucky goatherds...fortunate indeed to be born on top of a gigantic pool of oil, and the lackey of the Big Satan), but they REALLY hate the west, and especially the US of A.

So...this is a tale of extremes...nationalism, religious fervor and just plain nastiness.  Iran wants to be the Big Dog in the ME...like I said...oil and nukes...that and a bad attitude is how they see themselves rising to the top.

Problem for them is that the Izzies and the USA might not accept their actions.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 8:57:19 AM EDT
[#34]
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:01:48 AM EDT
[#35]

Quoted:
To our naysayers present:

The Iranians are arming themselves rapidly.  In addition to their nuclear weapons program, they have an active ballistic missile program.  Ballistic missiles are NOT defensive weapons, especially when fitted with weapons of mass destruction.  Ballistic missiles are designed to force one nation's strategic policy on another nation or to destroy other nations if required.  Iran is building new launch sites all over the nation.  Some would be exceptionally difficult to destroy.  They are extending their missile reach such that in a very short time, they will have the capability to put every major urban area in Europe at risk of total annihilation.

Now WHY would Iran be building up her arms inventory, to include nuclear weapons?  Iran is oil rich...why not just use the latent economic power to enrich their citizens and increase their world influence?  IMHO, Iran does this for two basic reasons:  (1) Iranians see themselves as the greatest race and society in the ME.  Remember, they were the biggest empire in South Asia for many hundreds of years.  Many Iranians would very much like to achieve such lofty powers once again.  Oil and nukes is the easiest way to nirvana as they see it.  (2)  Iran is hard-core Shia Muslim.  They actively support the Muslim terror jihad against the west, most especially, us.  They have no love for the Arabic Sunnis (They see the Saudis as a bunch of lucky goatherds...fortunate indeed to be born on top of a gigantic pool of oil, and the lackey of the Big Satan), but they REALLY hate the west, and especially the US of A.

So...this is a tale of extremes...nationalism, religious fervor and just plain nastiness.  Iran wants to be the Big Dog in the ME...like I said...oil and nukes...that and a bad attitude is how they see themselves rising to the top.

Problem for them is that the Izzies and the USA might not accept their actions.




Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:03:04 AM EDT
[#36]

Quoted:

Quoted:
<---- My surprised face.



4 Vanguard Class SSBN's each with 16 Trident D5's is our 'not overly concerned' face…


www.fas.org/nuke/guide/uk/slbm/Vanguard052197.jpg



Because they can shoot Iranian ICBMs out of the sky in the event of an irrational nuclear attack on your country by medieval minded religious fanatics?

Or they can hide in the event that some terrorist who smuggles a nuke or two he was given by Iran into Great Britain; gets lucky and levels a city or two?

There's more to military power and resolve than deterrence when you're dealing with fanatics who'd love to deal death throughout the civilized world.

Your face should be more concerned and less smug; lest you be looking down your nose at Iran through the rubble of Great Britain.

But then again; those Vanguard Trident subs will get them back for it and teach them a lesson.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:03:49 AM EDT
[#37]

Quoted:
To our naysayers present:

The Iranians are arming themselves rapidly.  In addition to their nuclear weapons program, they have an active ballistic missile program.  Ballistic missiles are NOT defensive weapons, especially when fitted with weapons of mass destruction.  Ballistic missiles are designed to force one nation's strategic policy on another nation or to destroy other nations if required.  Iran is building new launch sites all over the nation.  Some would be exceptionally difficult to destroy.  They are extending their missile reach such that in a very short time, they will have the capability to put every major urban area in Europe at risk of total annihilation.

Now WHY would Iran be building up her arms inventory, to include nuclear weapons?  Iran is oil rich...why not just use the latent economic power to enrich their citizens and increase their world influence?  IMHO, Iran does this for two basic reasons:  (1) Iranians see themselves as the greatest race and society in the ME.  Remember, they were the biggest empire in South Asia for many hundreds of years.  Many Iranians would very much like to achieve such lofty powers once again.  Oil and nukes is the easiest way to nirvana as they see it.  (2)  Iran is hard-core Shia Muslim.  They actively support the Muslim terror jihad against the west, most especially, us.  They have no love for the Arabic Sunnis (They see the Saudis as a bunch of lucky goatherds...fortunate indeed to be born on top of a gigantic pool of oil, and the lackey of the Big Satan), but they REALLY hate the west, and especially the US of A.

So...this is a tale of extremes...nationalism, religious fervor and just plain nastiness.  Iran wants to be the Big Dog in the ME...like I said...oil and nukes...that and a bad attitude is how they see themselves rising to the top.

Problem for them is that the Izzies and the USA might not accept their actions.


You sort of got the reason why in your post... but not really.

Iran wants to attain regional hegemony in it's neighborhood, but currently we stand in it's way. They cannot compete on a peer level with us militarily by conventional means, so nukes are required if they ever want to attain that goal. Do some of the Mullahs hate the west... I'm sure some do. However, Iran knows it can only continue to grow and prosper with Western investment and trade. Only the West has the technology necessary to fully develop Iran's oil and gas sector, and only western capital markets can provide the financing necessary to fund these projects. Iran is trying to buffer the economic pressure the west is leveraging against it by trying to turn to Asian markets. However, this is only a short term fix and cannot sustain Iran in the long term. China and India do not have the financial clout of the west, and won't for some time, to truly substitute for what only the west can provide.

Hence, Iran will continue to have to strike a balance between it's goal of attaining regional hegemony and finding a compromise with the west over Iran's role in the region. Iran just wants to tip the game in it's favor by getting nukes first, and then negotiate from a higher level of strength from there. That's not to say Iran will ever give up nukes if they get them.... they just want the military stick removed from the table so they are free to wheel and deal with the west at their advantage.... (Having the oil stick and a nuclear deterrent)
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:13:19 AM EDT
[#38]

Quoted:
there is a good chance the penalty for the US striking Irans nuclear sites will be less for the US than if Israel strikes.

On second thought, its a money grab.  


It probably does end up devolving to money in the end.

Israel tries to do something about iran----> oil/gas prices rise----------> US John Doe who doesn't care about much gets pissed as gas is now $6+ a gallon----------> Bye Bye US funds to israel

Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:15:14 AM EDT
[#39]

Quoted:
Apparently your density preceeds you.  I didn't post the article, sharp guy.


I am sorry HH, I thought you were the OP of the Israeli propaganda.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:20:29 AM EDT
[#40]

Quoted:
More fear mongering.

The sky is falling.


If information is "Fear mongering" you must live in a dark world.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:21:13 AM EDT
[#41]

Quoted:

Quoted:
To our naysayers present:

The Iranians are arming themselves rapidly.  In addition to their nuclear weapons program, they have an active ballistic missile program.  Ballistic missiles are NOT defensive weapons, especially when fitted with weapons of mass destruction.  Ballistic missiles are designed to force one nation's strategic policy on another nation or to destroy other nations if required.  Iran is building new launch sites all over the nation.  Some would be exceptionally difficult to destroy.  They are extending their missile reach such that in a very short time, they will have the capability to put every major urban area in Europe at risk of total annihilation.

Now WHY would Iran be building up her arms inventory, to include nuclear weapons?  Iran is oil rich...why not just use the latent economic power to enrich their citizens and increase their world influence?  IMHO, Iran does this for two basic reasons:  (1) Iranians see themselves as the greatest race and society in the ME.  Remember, they were the biggest empire in South Asia for many hundreds of years.  Many Iranians would very much like to achieve such lofty powers once again.  Oil and nukes is the easiest way to nirvana as they see it.  (2)  Iran is hard-core Shia Muslim.  They actively support the Muslim terror jihad against the west, most especially, us.  They have no love for the Arabic Sunnis (They see the Saudis as a bunch of lucky goatherds...fortunate indeed to be born on top of a gigantic pool of oil, and the lackey of the Big Satan), but they REALLY hate the west, and especially the US of A.

So...this is a tale of extremes...nationalism, religious fervor and just plain nastiness.  Iran wants to be the Big Dog in the ME...like I said...oil and nukes...that and a bad attitude is how they see themselves rising to the top.

Problem for them is that the Izzies and the USA might not accept their actions.


You sort of got the reason why in your post... but not really.

Iran wants to attain regional hegemony in it's neighborhood, but currently we stand in it's way. They cannot compete on a peer level with us militarily by conventional means, so nukes are required if they ever want to attain that goal. Do some of the Mullahs hate the west... I'm sure some do. However, Iran knows it can only continue to grow and prosper with Western investment and trade. Only the West has the technology necessary to fully develop Iran's oil and gas sector, and only western capital markets can provide the financing necessary to fund these projects. Iran is trying to buffer the economic pressure the west is leveraging against it by trying to turn to Asian markets. However, this is only a short term fix and cannot sustain Iran in the long term. China and India do not have the financial clout of the west, and won't for some time, to truly substitute for what only the west can provide.

Hence, Iran will continue to have to strike a balance between it's goal of attaining regional hegemony and finding a compromise with the west over Iran's role in the region. Iran just wants to tip the game in it's favor by getting nukes first, and then negotiate from a higher level of strength from there. That's not to say Iran will ever give up nukes if they get them.... they just want the military stick removed from the table so they are free to wheel and deal with the west at their advantage.... (Having the oil stick and a nuclear deterrent)


Amazing how you know what Iran's true plans are and feel confident that they will use logic and clear thinking to secure those plans.

Personally when a religious extremist of the highest order says over and over that he will destroy Israel and the USA and then works feverishly at great cost to develop the exact weapons needed to make good on those threats I find it prudent to take him at his word.
But hey it could just be posturing and a few years from now we'll be all buddies right?
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:30:06 AM EDT
[#42]
Why are so many of you guys thinking that these guys are rational? That they're mature?

All we have to do is take them at their word AND THEIR ACTIONS to know that this is very bad policy.

They are killing our soldiers... and you say we should do nothing.

They are destabilizing the region when all we want is stability... and you say we should do nothing.

They are sponsoring terrorists worldwide... and you say we should do nothing.

WHEN SHOULD WE DO SOMETHING?
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:42:25 AM EDT
[#43]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
To our naysayers present:

The Iranians are arming themselves rapidly.  In addition to their nuclear weapons program, they have an active ballistic missile program.  Ballistic missiles are NOT defensive weapons, especially when fitted with weapons of mass destruction.  Ballistic missiles are designed to force one nation's strategic policy on another nation or to destroy other nations if required.  Iran is building new launch sites all over the nation.  Some would be exceptionally difficult to destroy.  They are extending their missile reach such that in a very short time, they will have the capability to put every major urban area in Europe at risk of total annihilation.

Now WHY would Iran be building up her arms inventory, to include nuclear weapons?  Iran is oil rich...why not just use the latent economic power to enrich their citizens and increase their world influence?  IMHO, Iran does this for two basic reasons:  (1) Iranians see themselves as the greatest race and society in the ME.  Remember, they were the biggest empire in South Asia for many hundreds of years.  Many Iranians would very much like to achieve such lofty powers once again.  Oil and nukes is the easiest way to nirvana as they see it.  (2)  Iran is hard-core Shia Muslim.  They actively support the Muslim terror jihad against the west, most especially, us.  They have no love for the Arabic Sunnis (They see the Saudis as a bunch of lucky goatherds...fortunate indeed to be born on top of a gigantic pool of oil, and the lackey of the Big Satan), but they REALLY hate the west, and especially the US of A.

So...this is a tale of extremes...nationalism, religious fervor and just plain nastiness.  Iran wants to be the Big Dog in the ME...like I said...oil and nukes...that and a bad attitude is how they see themselves rising to the top.

Problem for them is that the Izzies and the USA might not accept their actions.


You sort of got the reason why in your post... but not really.

Iran wants to attain regional hegemony in it's neighborhood, but currently we stand in it's way. They cannot compete on a peer level with us militarily by conventional means, so nukes are required if they ever want to attain that goal. Do some of the Mullahs hate the west... I'm sure some do. However, Iran knows it can only continue to grow and prosper with Western investment and trade. Only the West has the technology necessary to fully develop Iran's oil and gas sector, and only western capital markets can provide the financing necessary to fund these projects. Iran is trying to buffer the economic pressure the west is leveraging against it by trying to turn to Asian markets. However, this is only a short term fix and cannot sustain Iran in the long term. China and India do not have the financial clout of the west, and won't for some time, to truly substitute for what only the west can provide.

Hence, Iran will continue to have to strike a balance between it's goal of attaining regional hegemony and finding a compromise with the west over Iran's role in the region. Iran just wants to tip the game in it's favor by getting nukes first, and then negotiate from a higher level of strength from there. That's not to say Iran will ever give up nukes if they get them.... they just want the military stick removed from the table so they are free to wheel and deal with the west at their advantage.... (Having the oil stick and a nuclear deterrent)


Amazing how you know what Iran's true plans are and feel confident that they will use logic and clear thinking to secure those plans.

Personally when a religious extremist of the highest order says over and over that he will destroy Israel and the USA and then works feverishly at great cost to develop the exact weapons needed to make good on those threats I find it prudent to take him at his word.
But hey it could just be posturing and a few years from now we'll be all buddies right?


My opinion is based on Iran's rational behavior regarding how it has engaged, and at times retreated, while conducting International relations and formulating its policies since the late 80's through the present. Iran has acted rationally regarding its interests, and has been cautious when need be. Furthermore, my opinion is buttressed by countless expert papers and opinions, which I take the time to research and read. Perhaps you should do the same. You could start with the following:

Middle East Journal

Volume: Volume 62
Number: Number 2
Issue: Spring
Year: 2008

Occultation in Perpetuum: Shi‘ite Messianism and the Policies of the Islamic Republic

Author: Ze’ev Maghen (OMG an Israeli author too )

This article examines the assertion, widespread in both media and academia, that the Islamic Republic of Iran — and especially the current government under Mahmud Ahmadinejad — is actuated by a powerful, Shi‘ite-based messianism. Much evidence appears at first glance to support this assessment: not only the statements and actions of the charismatic President, many of which reference the imminent return of the Hidden Imam, but also, and more fundamentally, the widespread perception of Shi‘ism — the state religion of Iran and spiritual force behind the Islamic Revolution — as an endemically and fervently apocalyptic creed. These two factors have combined with the agenda-ridden punditry of many lay-people and even specialists to create the pervasive impression that Iran’s rulers live on the brink of the Eschaton, and seek to expedite its arrival by initiating a worldwide cataclysm. The author rejects the validity of this outlook, arguing instead that religio-historical developments in the medieval and modern periods gradually turned Twelver Shi‘ism into the most resolutely anti-messianic movement in Islam, and perhaps in the world. While it remains imperative, in the author’s view, that the international community strive to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear capabilities, this is not due to any inherent “End of Days” outlook informing Iranian policy. This alternative view harbors significant implications for the West’s present and future dealings with Shi‘ism in general and with Iran in particular.


ETA: You can buy the article here
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 9:50:28 AM EDT
[#44]

Quoted:
Why are so many of you guys thinking that these guys are rational? That they're mature?

All we have to do is take them at their word AND THEIR ACTIONS to know that this is very bad policy.

They are killing our soldiers... and you say we should do nothing.

They are destabilizing the region when all we want is stability... and you say we should do nothing.

They are sponsoring terrorists worldwide... and you say we should do nothing.

WHEN SHOULD WE DO SOMETHING?


After the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11 or worse; then we can discuss further what our reaction to Iran's rapid militarization and nuclear weapons program might be.

And then we can review any and all possible U.S. responses at length, as well as the negative consequences taking any action at all might bring upon us.

Then we can debate the issue some more.

And come to the conclusion that it's all Israel's problem anyway.

Being that Brittania used to rule the seas; the Brits can ride out the situation, unconcerned, in their Vanguard submarines.
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 10:00:11 AM EDT
[#45]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Apparently your density preceeds you.  I didn't post the article, sharp guy.


I am sorry HH, I thought you were the OP of the Israeli propaganda.


No problem, Dance...I shouldn't have been so snippy.

HH
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 10:01:52 AM EDT
[#46]

Quoted:
Obama will save us.


But I thought that's what Bush has been doing these past two terms?

I mean, he's prevented our enemies from becoming nuclear powers, right?
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 10:08:37 AM EDT
[#47]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Obama will save us.


But I thought that's what Bush has been doing these past two terms?

I mean, he's prevented our enemies from becoming nuclear powers, right?


We haven't been attacked at home for quite a while; I'm afraid Obama will bring "change".
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 10:11:37 AM EDT
[#48]

Quoted:
According to Israeli estimates, Iran was supposed to have the bomb in 2003... and then in 2005.... and then in 2007.... and now .... Israeli intel isn't worth the toilet paper it's written on. They're just trying to stir the "OH NOES!!!1" before Bush leaves office so we do what they won't. They know once Bush is out of Office, they are on their own... and they are going to do everything they can right now to press us into an attack on Iran... whether it is in our interests right now or not.


+100000
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 10:12:12 AM EDT
[#49]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
Obama will save us.


But I thought that's what Bush has been doing these past two terms?

I mean, he's prevented our enemies from becoming nuclear powers, right?


We haven't been attacked at home for quite a while; I'm afraid Obama will bring "change".


The Star Wars fan in me keeps equating "Hope and Change" with "He will bring balance to the Force"
Link Posted: 5/7/2008 10:16:43 AM EDT
[#50]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
Obama will save us.


But I thought that's what Bush has been doing these past two terms?

I mean, he's prevented our enemies from becoming nuclear powers, right?


We haven't been attacked at home for quite a while; I'm afraid Obama will bring "change".


The Star Wars fan in me keeps equating "Hope and Change" with "He will bring balance to the Force"


What he'll balance is the need to maintain our armed forces with the needs of new and bigger social programs.
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