In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world's only
"superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As
you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for
the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or
seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are
much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist"
organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield
seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may
come in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if
their early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to
die to the last man.
Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already
deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living
the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked
with a search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the
public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can
be worked out.
For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining
itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were
promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and
tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers
of gravity" to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast technological
edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the
perfect metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists
themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife fight, and
it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers,
not by software or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our military
leaders.
Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our
adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to
fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the
American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to believe
in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally
acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only
look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap
(also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America
without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who marched
to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat
upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that
Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the
concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent
attacks, but also less audacious "sand in ! the gears" tactics, ranging
from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power
distribution facilities. These attacks are designed to hit us in our
"comfort zone" forcing the average American to "pay more and play less"
and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let it.
(cont.)