Anyone have any predictions for the next few years? How big do you think the war against terrorisim will be?

Beats me.
I think that any large number of
troops deployed will be
used primarily to deter any
aggression aimed at
friendly nations that cooperate
while strikes against terrorism
take place in the unfriendly ones.

Lots of local security roles
around borders etc.

That all depends on how willing we are to deal with terrorism here for the next couple of years.  They WILL continue to bring the war to us, we must be willing to make it too costly for them to do this.

Humm, here's a few thoughts.

I heard on CNN in few minutes ago that the administration is predicting this "war" will take 5 years until we see "victory".

Bad move on Bush's part if he allows this military action to go on even for a year much less 5 years.  Perhaps he's talking about a strong push in the beginning then bombing sorties to punish or keep down further insurrections.    Either way, if this "war" is still raging 3 years from now as the 2004 election draw near, say good bye to our Republican president...

How do you have a "victory" when you lack a defined enemy and objectives?  To only state "we're fighting terrorism anywhere we find it" isn't enough.  That leaves the door open to a never ending conflict which ultimately will become grossly unpopular just as the Vietnam war did.  We need to define our enemies, define exactly what damage we intend to do, and keep it as short and dirty as possible.  We will never rid the world of all terrorists.  Hell, our actions are more likely to create a whole new generation of terrorists worldwide.  So to claim we'll eventually rid the world of terrorists or that we'll enjoy some "victory" is misleading.  We need to be honest with our citizens if we hope to keep this war popular and purposeful.

Will this spark a larger regional or global conflict?  Who knows, but it [b]certainly[/b] could.  We've made allies out of strange bedfellows.  Pakistan?  Hell, literally HALF of their people SUPPORT Bin Laden.  Why would we want to put airfields and bases in that country?  Hell, they harbor just as many terrorists as Afghanistan does!  Our soldiers will NOT be safe there.  

Also, Pakistan stands to be thrown into civil war if their government supports us.  This means that India may see an opportunity to finally take Kashmir once the civil war kicks off.  That will spark two NUCLEAR nations who have fought no less than 4 wars already to start fighting again with us sitting in the middle.

If Afghanistan makes good on their threat to attack Muslim countries which support the US, you can bet that this action will pull even more countries into the conflict, thus increasing the possibility this will turn into one MAJOR regional conflict if not another global (World War) conflict.

You can bet further terrorist attacks will take place in our country.  You can also expect sweeping changes to our internal laws.  If a terrorist faction uses a bunch of domestically purchased AK's to shoot up a Mall, new anti-gun legislation will be passed over night.  We'll have soldiers on every street corner and marshal law will prevail in many of our cities larger cities.

No matter how you look at it, this suckers going to get real nasty.  

My suggestion?  Hit HARD and FAST.  Use Special Forces to take out key targets and use air power to rain hell down on suspected strongholds.  Do as much damage as possible in 3-6 months time then pull our troops out.  Don't attempt to occupy Afghanistan or any other nations land.   Kill as many of these assholes as possible and pull back to a safe distance.  If we detect flair-ups in activity, dispatch Special Forces and air power from safe bases in friendly countries to do as much damage as possible then pull our soldier right back out.  That's the best we can do in my opinion without getting ourselves into a no-win scenario.

My prediction?
First thing will be a limited strike against Afghanistan aimed at getting Bin Laden and his people.  Next will be isolated SF/air strikes against places in the Sudan where the terrorists train.  The culmination will be a large-scale attack on Iraq meant to depose Hussein.  After that, an increased intelligence/special forces effort will be mounted to take out terrorists before they can get as organized as the current crop.

You're right, we need to make this war too costly for them to continue.

How do we do that?

I agree an initial military strike is called for.  We must show them, and the world, that acts of war against our country will be swiftly and harshly dealt with.  I'm even for using tactical nukes, even on Afghanistan if necessary.

I think it's extremely important that we declaw this monster too.  How?  Take away its money.  Show their supporters that it's dangerous to associate with these terrorist elements.

We should seize all assets known to belong to Bin Laden and his band of assholes.  We locate and destroy his financial supporters.  We wipe out his money laundering facilities and punish (even with military force) those nations who allow him to use their financial resources (banks, markets, etc.).

We then infiltrate his organizations.  I feel ultimately our money and recourses would be better spent on covert operations (CIA) than outright prolonged military action.  Infiltrate and sabotage their efforts before they can respond.  Assassinate their leaders.  Bomb their leaders cars, snipe them, poison them, anything we can think of.  Basically use "terrorism" on them as they have us.  Make them scared to walk outside.  Armies are easy to avoid, but assassins will scare the crap out of them.

And of course use military force to punish them or to remove large targets.

We should not even consider occupation of Afghani territory, or any other Muslim states.  That is without doubt a no-win proposition.

That's my 10 cents.

My prediciton:

Osama, tonight you die!

My prediction is U.S will attack afganistan, Pakistan's government will destabilize, They'll put a nuke on a cargo ship and detonate it in a U.S port before authoritys can react to the destabilization.

I don't think the U.S will win it in the way they think they'll win.

I just don't see a full up war even as large as Desert Storm.  However, I could be wrong. I do hope however, that if we have a prolonged, bloody conflict, at least we can occupy and get some oil out of it.  That old no blood for oil argument was nonsense.  It's the best damned reason for war, after deterrence and retaliation.

It would appear your prediction is already showing signs of having holes in it.

The Bush administration is predicting the "War" will last "5 years until we see victory".  They are already talking about a ground war.

I don't believe we will use this opportunity to challenge Hussein again.  I think that's pretty much way off base.  The only way Iraq will be drawn into this again is if they 1) take military action or 2) are linked to the terrorist attack in NY and the Pentagon.

The rest of your prediction I agree with.  We will mount attacks on just about any middle eastern state where we find terrorist training camps.  Right now it would appear Pakistan is going to be spared these attacks even though they harbor many terrorists themselves... due to the apparent support they're offering.

My prediction?
It will be Worldwide.

How bad?
7 kinds of fucked up from Tuesday.

My suggestion?
Don't post any ideas on the Forum.
It could be as stupid as the TV Nutworks blabbing the gameplan to Saddam---"here's pictures so you know right where we're at!!!"

Be careful.

Hopefully George W. will convince enough of the rest of the world that it is in their own self interest to end support for any kind of terrorist. They have a pretty solid history of biting their masters hand when they feel like it or when their plans change. Many nations have played along in the past as a means of striking at their enemies with out a direct link back to them. That has all gotta change!

What troubles me is a long-term war, in conjunction with people willing to sacrifice their rights for a "measure of safety", could result in an Orwellian outcome. Unlike the wars of the last century, this one will take place partially on our shores. That may be enough to prompt for calls for added restrictions. This is the worst case scenario for me.

What happens if Bin Laden is given up. If the people below him hand him over to the US and then tell us to go home we have the man we wanted. They would still have all the cells and groups basically untouched. From all the press bits it sounds like we only want Bin Laden. I feel we should not even be asking for him. Just go in and hunt the whole group down.

It better happen a lot faster.  We need to wipe out the Bin Laden network and the Iraquis ASAP.  If they were willing to kill 5,000 Americans they are willing to kill 50,000 or 5,000,000.  We need all those guys out of business tomorrow if not sooner.

GunLvr

Nothing you said puts any "holes" in my prediction.  If victory is defined as getting all the terror networks known to now exist, five years may be too short a time.  But Bin Laden and his associates will be the first ones we go after, and that will happen soon.

We'll be fighting a madman and his mad followers... people who are willing to die for their cause.  At what price will we pay to declare ourselves 'victors' in this so-called war.  We are trained to survive... they are trained to do as much damage as possible and die.  They have nothing to lose.. everything to gain.  So we need to do something first.  And it had better be good.   What we do and how we do it are the big questions.  Unfortunately, I don't have the answer to that; and I don't believe that too many people do either.  It seems that no matter what we do, it may not be enough.  Too much, and we're condemned by the world (big, fat, hairy deal!).  If it takes too long, it will be a very long, drawn-out war.

I think this war is going to last a lot longer than most people expect.  Fighting Afghan is probably just the start, all those other arab nations seem to hate us a lot too.  We will probably have to fight them all, I say we spare our lives and just nuke the whole middle east.

Oh no!  You mean we declared war on rugs too?  The insanity of it all!

[:D]

I agree with rik.  saddam is gonna get it this time.