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Posted: 7/22/2006 11:53:24 AM EDT
[#1]
I pray for the day when the media lib/conserv and U.S. officials who speak on the 'condition of anonymity' will just put a sock on it about subjects like this. What did the Washington Times (neo-con publication) and this administration official think they would accomplish with this verbal diarrhea? Let's face it, war is fought half on the battlefield and half in peoples minds (psychological). The more the enemy knows, the more they're emboldened. |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 12:01:23 PM EDT
[#2]
While I didn't know about the Pali's ability to put larger units together, I disagree on the timing with Iran and whatnot. Everything I've read thus far indicates that Hizballah is another arm of the Iranian government... They are supported by Iran (though the Counterterrorism blog has a story on funding from Dearborn MI (yay)). Ahmadinejad has spoken out publicly of late regarding this, and he has not backed down on his rhetoric. Furthermore, it jibes with other reports that this action in Lebanon is a creation of the Iranians to take heat off the their nuclear program. I do not disagree with your assessments, I am just challenging them with what I have read elsewhere. |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 12:05:08 PM EDT
[#3]
senior palis will call for a cease fire at 5pm ..
edit.. fox news guy wasnt sure.. or be " very wary " of these claims .. oh well.. edit again .. cease fire came and went .. no cease fire ... wow... what a suprise.. |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 1:54:37 PM EDT
[#4]
WHO is "it" working with? Israel HAS to return to its own borders at some point. Then Hezbollah will return and renew its "Ballistic Intifada" campaign. Doesn't matter how many Hizbollah fighter Israel kills or how many rocket launchers they destroy...more jihadis will volunteer and Iran will supply more war material. What then? Another incursion, with fresh civilian corpses to parade for the cameras, and inflame the Arab/Muslim masses? Dismiss this growing anti-Americanism if you like, but we must realize we are just acting as recruiters for the enemy. Haven't we learned ANYTHING from Iraq? We can kill these jihadis in large numbers, but there is a never-ending supply to take their place. This problem has to be solved at its root- the Terror States that sponsor these groups. How is Hizbollah funding its social programs, as well as the military stuff: artillery rockets, guided missiles, body armor, kevlar helmets, night vision devices etc...the terrs don't WORK for a living. All their funding comes straight from Iran and to a lesser extent Syria. Nothing we are doing now adressses that fact. I'm all for Israel fighting back; but, we seem to be playing right into Teheran's hands. Time to change tactics. Syria and Iran have to have their regimes targeted for destruction: by economic subversion, political dissent, or outright assassination of their leadership. What we are doing now is not working. |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 3:07:28 PM EDT
[#5]
Seriously? t |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 3:27:04 PM EDT
[#6]
There is not an unlimited number of jihadis to fill Iraq or Lebanon. Even if there were they could only get there via the terror regimes, i.e. Syria and Iran. Taking those countries on instead of pussyfooting about their proxy war in Iraq and Lebanon would be to our's and the Israeli's advantage. |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 3:59:39 PM EDT
[#7]
Lots of bombing in Lebanon tonite…
ANdy ETA: US shipping 5,000lb Bunker Busters to Israel… |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 5:53:53 PM EDT
[#8]
Those are gonna hurt!  HH |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 5:57:48 PM EDT
[#9]
How long ya think before Nasrallah is smoked by one of those? |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 5:58:56 PM EDT
[#10]
God bless you, IDF!
HH ================================== Israel Hastily Musters Its Citizen Army Jul 22 4:26 PM US/Eastern By ARON HELLER Associated Press Writer JERUSALEM Roy Bass emerged from the Mediterranean waves at noon Friday for a Popsicle break when, surfboard in hand, he heard his cell phone ringing on the beach. It was a recorded message: "An emergency draft has been activated." Four hours later, the 27-year-old computer programmer was at an army base, in full uniform, preparing to head to Israel's northern border, where troops were massing to take on Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon. Israel's mighty military is comprised of thousands like Bass _ ordinary civilians who, at a moment's notice, respond to the call to arms. On Friday, several thousand reservists were drafted for immediate, emergency duty. By Friday night, the army chief of staff announced the response was full, plus thousands who volunteered on their own initiative. "The reserves have proven themselves once again," said Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, the army chief of staff. The enthusiastic response highlights the intimate relationship Israel has with its army. Nearly every Jewish Israeli has served in the army, and opinion polls consistently show the army to be the country's most trusted institution. Since Israel became independent in 1948, reserves have been the backbone of its military, conditioned to drop everything and be mobilized within a day or two to back up the far smaller core of active duty soldiers. Men from all walks of life _ and increasingly women with special skills _ instantly become soldiers again. Israel's standing army of about 186,500 troops can jump to 631,500 with rapid mobilization, according to figures from the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. The system has proven effective in all of Israel's wars. In 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked en masse on the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, thousands of reservists were summoned from their homes and synagogues and rushed to the front lines to push back the offensive. Despite Israel's increasing reliance on technological superiority, military service remains a rite of passage. All 18-year-old men are drafted for three years and will continue to do reserves for about a month a year into their 40s, by which time many will have sons in the army or reserves. Women are drafted for two years. As Israel's military dominance has grown, it has become less reliant on its reserves. The retirement age has been gradually lowered from 51 to 40 in some cases, and the number of reserves called up has steadily dropped, with the army focusing more on those with specialized skills, such as air force pilots and intelligence officers. Some view the task the way Americans view jury duty _ boring and disruptive, especially for college students and the self-employed. Most, however, welcome it as a break from the rigors of daily life, a chance to bond with old comrades in a setting where a backgammon board is often a more important accessory than a rifle. In peacetime, a reserve stint is something to be haggled over with a commanding officer with all sorts of excuses _ a college exam, an overseas vacation, a spell of dental surgery. But when the call-up is an "Order 8," military parlance for an emergency summons, the response is visceral. "All of a sudden it becomes a real war, it changes everything," Bass said by cell phone from his base in northern Israel. Bass serves annually in his armored battalion, but this is his first Order 8. Where once Israelis were drafted to war by air raid sirens, passwords over the radio and recruiters going door to door, today they are summoned by computerized calls to their cell phones. When Bass got his call-up, he sped home and swapped his bathing suit for an army uniform. "There was no dilemma, no doubt in my mind because it is something you grow up with, that this is the most important thing there is," he said. "It's ingrained deep inside you _ if they call you, you go." Even without a war, reservists are as much at risk as regular soldiers. The two soldiers who were kidnapped by Hezbollah on the Lebanon border, triggering the current round of fighting, were reservists. Ephraim Sneh, a lawmaker and former general, said his three parliamentary assistants were drafted for emergency duty. He said those who are called are genuinely needed and, therefore, "whoever serves, serves with joy." "The destiny of Israel is the hands of the few, and we owe our lives to the few," he said. "Those who are on the front lines were always the few, but thanks to these devoted people we are still here." |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:01:45 PM EDT
[#11]
I hope their intel is right.
HH =========================== July 23, 2006 Troops Ready, but Israel Bets on Air Power By STEVEN ERLANGER JERUSALEM, July 22 — On Israeli intelligence maps of southern Lebanon, the stronghold of the Hezbollah militia, there are numerals in circles that overlap many villages. One is marked “8,” others “7” or fewer. The figures represent the number of rockets fired toward Israel from each village as registered by Israeli surveillance planes and radar. The villages, whose names cannot be published under Israeli Army censorship regulations, stretch north to roughly the Litani River, some 15 miles from the Israeli-Lebanese border. “This is where Hezbollah has most of its 10,000 rockets,” said a senior Israeli commander, who would not allow his name to be used because he has access to sensitive information. “And these villages are where most of the rockets are kept, with their launchers, and where they’re fired. This is where the command and control is located, and the weapons storehouses.” After two days of fighting in the area, Israeli troops entered Maroun al-Ras in Lebanon on Saturday. Near there, above the northern Israeli town of Avivim, Hezbollah has built an underground warren of metal-lined tunnels, barracks and rocket-storage facilities, the officer said, showing photographs of an entrance disguised by a metal lid covered with leaves and branches, visible only from the ground. For the last three days, Israel has been telling the residents of southern Lebanon, through leaflets, radio broadcasts, taped telephone messages and conversations with the local authorities, to leave these villages and move north. But the preparation now seems to be less for a ground invasion than for more punishing airstrikes to try to eliminate Hezbollah military assets and stockpiles, which the Israelis say are distributed and hidden through the civilian population, in houses, garages and apartments. “We want the freedom to attack these places,” the officer said. “I believe in air power. I believe in our ability to destroy Hezbollah without going into Lebanon again the way we did in 1982. And the only way to do it is to attack any movement we detect, any launch or any activity aimed at hitting Israel — especially from the villages we see.” The overall aim, Israel says, is to weaken Hezbollah sufficiently so that the international community can help the Lebanese government to carry out United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 and exercise its sovereignty all over Lebanon, expelling any foreign fighters and disarming Hezbollah. Israel is more interested in having an international force patrol the border than it has been in the past, officials say, especially if the force has rules of engagement that will allow it to ensure that Hezbollah cannot reinfiltrate to the border. Israel wants “to change the calculus for any future kidnapper,” showing that it will respond in force and that the Israeli population is willing to suffer pain and casualties, undermining the theory of Hezbollah’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, that Israeli society is “like a spider’s web,” soft and easily broken. Hezbollah will not surrender, the officer said. “They won’t come out with a white flag. But at the end they should be beaten and be seen to be beaten. It won’t be a knockout, but what matters is how big the decision is on points.” Currently, as Israeli troops and armor continue to build on the border and commandos operate secretly and deeper inside Lebanon, Israeli infantry activity has been limited to operations within a mile or two of the border. These operations, described by Israeli chief of staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz as “limited” and “pinpoint,” have focused on knocking down Hezbollah outposts built on the border, finding and destroying camouflaged storehouses, barracks and rocket launching sites and defusing some of the many boobytraps and “improvised explosive devices,” which contain up to the equivalent of one ton of TNT, the Israelis say. Israel’s wider bombing campaign across Lebanon has killed hundreds of civilians and reduced parts of south Beirut and southern Lebanon to rubble. “We’re moving very carefully” to destroy outposts, storage areas and take control of elevated positions that provide a field of fire, the officer said. “We have time.” Part of the aim is to ensure, as Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has insisted, that Israeli forces never again face armed Hezbollah fighters nose to nose across the international border. Part of the aim is to clear routes for any larger ground incursion. The army also hopes to pull Hezbollah fighters out of hiding into firefights, the officer said, “so we can kill them.” The fighting has been intense, the army admits. Hezbollah has had six years to prepare its positions, ambushes and minefields, including buried explosives that can destroy the underbelly of even the most modern Israeli tank. Hezbollah forces are also well equipped with Syrian and Iranian infantry weapons, including laser-guided anti-tank rockets, that far outclass what the Palestinians can muster. Hezbollah is also believed to possess the Russian Kornet missile, laser-guided and with a thermal sight, designed in the mid-1990’s to attack the most modern tanks equipped with explosive reactive armor, the officer said. Russia sold the Kornet to Syria. General Halutz asserts that the Israelis have killed at least 100 Hezbollah fighters and commanders so far, while Israel has lost about 19 soldiers since this part of the conflict began on July 12 with a coordinated Hezbollah rocket attack and raid into Israel, which ended in the death of eight soldiers and the capture of two more. Many Israelis compare their 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon, which began in 1982 and lasted until 2000, to the American experience in Vietnam. Israeli commanders do not want to get sucked back into the “quicksand” of Lebanon, as one of them described it, leading Mr. Olmert and General Halutz to emphasize the “limited” and “temporary” nature of any Israeli raid. But if there is a major ground operation, the senior officer said, it would be almost useless to go just a few miles into Lebanon, and necessary to go up to the Litani River. “The Katyushas have a range of 20 to 32 kilometers,” he said, and Hezbollah also has Syrian and Iranian missiles with ranges of 40 to 70 kilometers, or 43 miles, with a few Iranian Zelzals that can go 100 kilometers, or 62 miles. “Two to five kilometers does the outposts, that’s all,” the officer said. He predicted that Israel would stick largely to air power for now, on the presumption that its war against Hezbollah would not be curtailed too quickly by the international community, in particular the Bush administration. “We have no intent and no desire to go back in force into Lebanon,” he said. “But if I’m wrong, and there’s not enough time and if air power proves ineffective, then we’ll do it,” he said, adding: “We’re capable of doing it. We’re not afraid to do it.” But ground forces won’t defeat Hezbollah, which can keep retreating northward. “A ground maneuver won’t solve the problem of the long-range missiles,” he said. “The problem is the will to launch. We have to break the will of Hezbollah” to confront Israel. And how will that happen? “By killing them,” the officer said. “Maybe many of their soldiers are fanatics and want to be martyrs. But the leadership is clever, and it wants to live. They’re rational guys, and they’re hiding.” Israel needs to “restore our military deterrence against terror organizations, whether Hamas or Hezbollah,” the officer added, “and this goal is already achieved.” Israel must show again that “Israeli soldiers on the ground can defeat any enemy,” the officer said, pointing to Gaza, where Israel has killed about 100 Palestinian fighters since June 25 and lost only one soldier, who was killed by another Israeli by error. General Halutz, the chief of staff, put it this way: “The restraint which we showed over the course of years is interpreted by those among the terrorists as weakness. On this count, they made a horrible mistake by assuming that we would persist in holding back and restraining ourselves. Our duty as an army was — and we did as such — to recommend a halt to this development, which stems from a sense of us not having an answer.” An international force with teeth, Israeli officials say, would help deal with serious Israeli concerns about the loyalties of the Lebanese Army, even after the Syrians have gone. Israelis note that the Lebanese Army, while some 50,000 men strong, has never been willing to try to displace Hezbollah in the south, even though Hezbollah has many more rockets than organized fighters — perhaps 6,000 of them, the Israelis say. “The Lebanese Army is not a strong army, and half of it is very close to the Hezbollah,” the Israeli officer said, citing the large number of Shiites from southern Lebanon who serve in the army. Asked if the army would, even if deployed along the border, prevent reinfiltration of Hezbollah fighters, the officer said, “I look for Hezbollah to understand that any future move against Israel will be very counterproductive and to concentrate on becoming a real political party.” Syria, he said, had far more potent and dangerous weaponry than Hezbollah, but it has always kept to its cease-fire agreement with Israel, deterred by the losses it knows Israel could inflict. “There’s a state in Syria that controls its territory,” the officer said. “We hope the international community will help Lebanon become a real state and keep the border calm.” |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:15:15 PM EDT
[#12]
THIS is a GREAT ARTICLE!
HH =========================================== Iran's attack on Israel has begun Israel's war of self-defense in southern Lebanon is a response to an Iranian Shiite fanatical attack on the Israeli people Yaakov Lappin A sampling of foreign media coverage of the war on the Israeli-Lebanese border indicates that the international press has, once again, missed the story unfolding in the Middle East. Hizbullah's rockets continue to pound Israeli cities, towns, and villages, creating a wave of Israeli refugees fleeing the north. The displaced northerners can be seen all over Tel Aviv: They are families, young people, and children, all searching for accommodation and a place to rest. The constant attacks by Hizbullah are creating daily, heart wrenching tragedies. Israelis are being killed and injured after trying to take cover from rocket barrages, or for simply going to work. And there are the daily chilling air raid sirens which test the nerves. They signal yet another brutal Hizbullah assault on the civilian population centers of northern Israel. Firm Israeli determination Despite the hardships though, the Israeli people are almost unanimously united in their backing of the military's efforts to defend them, and their support for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. A firm determination is shared by nearly all of the people of this country to see this war through until the aggressors to the north are dealt with. There is, however, a very serious twist to this war: It is no secret that Iran is using Lebanese territory as a frontline zone for an assault on northern Israel. The terrorist organization of Hizbullah, which began this conflict with a completely unprovoked act of aggression, the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, is only part of the problem. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the fanatical Shiite regime in Tehran have created a mini-state in southern Lebanon. Hizbullah's attack on Israel was given a green light in Tehran because Iran's official ideology, based on a fundamentalist Shiite theology, calls for the wiping out of Israel and a wave of attacks designed to establish global dominance of Shiite Islam. "Thanks to the blood of the martyrs, a new Islamic revolution has arisen and the Islamic revolution of 1384 (2005) will, if God wills, cut off the roots of injustice in the world, The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world," Ahmadinejad declared last year, six days after being appointed president of Iran, as rockets continued to flow into southern Lebanon. Hizbullah controlled by Tehran Ahmadinejad sincerely believes that his role on earth is to herald in a period of apocalyptic warfare to annihilate non-Shiite Muslims, and usher in the "return" of the twelfth imam, signaling the end of time and supreme rule of Shiite Islam. The Shiite southern Lebanese Hizbullah state, the Iranian proxy entity, is being armed, funded, and controlled by Tehran via remote control, to directly serve this end. This is why a high number of Arab heads of state, from Egypt through to Saudi Arabia, have blasted the Hizbullah – Iranian axis of aggression against Israel. Sunni Saudi Arabia, no great friend of Israel, is frightened by Iran's attempted takeover of the region. Meanwhile, like a virus, the Shiite Hizbullah state is draining its host, Lebanon, of stability, security, and sovereignty. Using human shields Since Israel evacuated southern Lebanon six years ago, an act of good faith made by a hopeful neighbor striving for peace and respected international borders, Iran has sent in its Quds (Jerusalem) Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to provide Hizbullah with tens of thousands of rockets, missiles, and automatic weapons. The Iranians and Hizbullah have spent over half a decade preparing for this war, and any illusion that it suddenly began out of the blue is a testament to the success of Iran's ability to keep its activities quiet. As Iran prepares the region for its "Islamic revolution," its regional arm, Hizbullah, kidnapped Israeli soldiers, and has also taken hostage hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians - human shields being held against their will. One of Hizbullah's most powerful weapons is the use of human shields. By hiding its soldiers and armaments among civilians in Lebanon, the organization can slow down the Israeli response and manipulate world opinion. Reports from Lebanon that gun battles have broken out between southern Lebanese villagers trying to leave their villages, and Hizbullah gunmen who have trapped them with roadblocks, are therefore unsurprising. Threat to global security The Israeli people know that they are fighting a war against an irrational and belligerent Islamist alliance bent on destroying them and wreaking havoc in the world. Israel will never tolerate a cross-border attack on its sovereignty after withdrawing to its internationally recognized borders. If the world is interested in peace, stability, and the right of the Israeli people to live safely, not to mention Lebanon's viablity as a sovereign nation-state, it should offer Israel unconditional support in its struggle against Hizbullah, and take a clear stand against Hassan Nasrallah's puppet masters in Tehran. If, on the other hand, world leaders and the foreign media prefer to be duped by Hizbullah's dirty tactics, and condemn Israel for its war of self-defense, they will be aiding a growing and serious threat to global security, which other nations will also have to face not much further down the road. |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:16:50 PM EDT
[#13]
FOX is stating now that the IDF lost 7 soldiers in the northern part of the battle today. They're taking some shots here, folks.
HH |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:20:22 PM EDT
[#14]
Excellent coverage, HH.
Did you hear the bit about Hezbollah supposedly providing aid to the Lebanese affected by Israeli airstrikes? Not good... 
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:23:19 PM EDT
[#15]
No, I didn't. I was out BBQ'ing all evening and just now catching up on the news. I'm hearing now, though, that Hezzie wants a ceasefire IF Israel will stop. BS! They're hurt, and it's gonna get worse. The IDF is taking some solid shots, too, but this is no time to call a timeout. Kick their asses all the way to hell and their 72 Helen Thomas'. HH |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:32:40 PM EDT
[#16]
That news is 72 hours old 
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:33:08 PM EDT
[#17]
Yep, no trusting those bastards... I really think Israel needs to stop delaying and go for a full scale invasion all ready, maybe they're just waiting until after they meet with Condi... Because politically speaking, this is really looking worse by the day... I hate not knowing what's happening. 
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:37:44 PM EDT
[#18]
Saturday, July 22, 2006
The Path of the IDF Ynet News has good coverage of the ground activity at Maroun al-Ras.
The IDF also issued a warning to inhabitants of towns in southern Lebanon to evacuate in anticipation of further Israeli operations. The towns were ennumerated, and that lets us plot the towns on the map. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Falling Rain provided an invaluable guide to finding these towns on the map. Some, perhaps due to variations in spelling, could not be located. But those that could are at the following coordinates. Place Coordinates Aitrun 33° 6' 56N 35° 28' 20E Atiri 33° 8' 23N 35° 24' 8E Barashit 33° 10' 37N 35° 26' 45E Beit Yahoun 33° 10' 20N 35° 25' 20E Bint Jubayl 33° 7' 13N 35° 25' 57E Bleida 33° 8' 23N 35° 31' 0E Einata ? Hadatiya ? Hirbat Salim ? Kontin ? Kharsat a-Talab ? Majal Salim 33° 13' 15N 35° 28' 0E Shakra ? Yarun 33° 4' 52N 35° 25' 21E The map, looking north from the Israeli border is shown below. The towns which the IDF wants evacuated are marked with little flags. A pushpin marks the point where the Litani River suddenly turns West from its North-South course out of the Bekaa. Readers are invited to examine the ground in Google Earth or any similar program. Two things should be observed. First, none of the villages which the IDF wants evacuated are beyond the Litani. Second, the villages are all in central and eastern Lebanon.  Commentary In the previous post, Mr. Atos quoted a snippet from a Stratfor report in comments. Tigerhawk has the full text and analysis.
In response to Mr. Atos, I noted that operations in Hezbollah would also have an effect on Lebanese internal politics. It would change the balance of Lebanese internal power.
posted by wretchard at 4:09 PM |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:38:56 PM EDT
[#19]
I'm having a VERY hard time believing this crap. IF this is true, the IDF better get their asses in gear and inflict as much damage as possible. Plus, with us sending them 5000 lb. bombs, they better get there fast to defeat the hardened bunkers containing their weapons and rockets caches.
HH ETA: Tony Snow refuted this the other day and it's rearing its ugly head again. ---------------------------------------------------------- Senior officials believe U.S. will give Israel a week to complete military offensive in Lebanon By Aluf Benn, Shmuel Rosner and Shlomo Shamir, Haaretz Correspondents, and Agencies On the eve of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to Jerusalem, senior officials believe Israel has an American nod to continue operations against Hezbollah at least until next Sunday. Rice will first explore ways with Israel's leadership to end the crisis and begin to shape a new order in Lebanon. She will return next Sunday to try to implement a cease-fire. From Jerusalem, Rice will go on to Rome to meet senior delegates from the UN and Arab states. They will discuss formulating a political arrangement and a plan to rehabilitate Lebanon. From Rome she will travel to an Asian conference in Malaysia, from where she will return to Israel. Rice's trip has two main goals: an attempt to formulate an agreement to end the fighting in Lebanon and sending a strong international force to enforce Security Council Resolution 1559 calling to disarm Hazbollah and deploy the Lebanese Army along the Israeli border. |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:41:40 PM EDT
[#20]
It's gotta be bullcrap...
At least I really hope it is... I hate speculating when I'm tired too.
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Posted: 7/22/2006 6:52:01 PM EDT
[#21]
Saturday, July 22, 2006
Stratfor's analysis of the ground war By TigerHawk at 7/22/2006 09:42:00 AM Blogging from my Blackberry, so this post is long on pasting and short on analysis. Stratfor (subscribe here) sent around an analysis of the ground war yesterday afternoon that strikes me as fairly on target.
The world requires your learned and speculative commentary. Permalink/Main 18 Comments: And C-130 fire foghting tankers full of a flammable substance could do what? dorf By Anonymous, at Sat Jul 22, 10:11:55 AM Analysis is wrong when asserting: It Israel has lost the strategic initiative: It must fight when Hezbollah has chosen and deal with Hezbollah's challenge. Hezbollah never expected such a response at his action and kidnapping 2 IDF soldiers. Hezbollah miscalculated and did not observed changed reality: some years ago, EU and arab countries would push Izrael into cease-fire and Israeli population would not accept full scale ground offensive into Lebanon. In the article, comparisons between Iraq and Lebanon are made. That is also compltely wrong. Imagine that half of Baghdad is populated by Kurds and 25% of souther Iraq are christians. That would change the game completely. In crushing Hezbollah you change the reality among Lebanese minorities. Christians and Druze hate Hezbollah maybe more than Israelis (they wouldn't say to BBC live..). Israel will not dissolve the lebanese army, which in fact caused many problems in Iraq. Instead, Israel needs the army to guard the southern border. By Anonymous, at Sat Jul 22, 11:11:31 AM Cut off Hezbollah and kill it, if possible. Take out Nassrallah and Mughniyeh and as much of the top leadership as possible. Syria may want part of this fight, but I doubt it. Assad can't help but have noticed that the Israelis can buzz his palace at will and that his own flank is exposed to attack by U.S. forces, if need be. In any event, Israel might welcome the excuse to engage and destroy from the air Syrian ground forces deployed near the Lebanese border. The longer range difficulty is to neautralize Hezbollah's influence politically. Hezbollah currently controls the largest political party in Lebanon. Destroying Hezbollah's soft and hard assets in the south of the country will polarize Lebanese opinion either in support or opposition. The Lebanese who want a free and open society should not need further instruction to understand they, too, have a dog in this fight. As do the surrounding Arab countries. The recent condemnation of Hezbollah by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and other Arab states is encouraging. Perhaps a peace-keeping force made up of representatives from these states would have more incentive to actually enforce terms subject to an Israeli withdrawal than would a willy-nilly aggregation of UN observors. When the time is appropriate--when Lebanese forces are capable, free of Hezbollah's influence--southern Lebanon could be entrusted to Beirut's control. By sirius_sir, at Sat Jul 22, 11:55:03 AM The lynchpin here is to isolate Syria, and to deny logistical support to Hizbollah via Syria. This can be done 1.) the easy way, by offering U.S. assurances and some support to Syria in return for verifiable monitoring/surveillance of compliance. Condi Rice might be able to achieve an agreement like this with Assad via an intermediary like Egypt or Jordan. Iran needs Syria if they intend to re-supply Hizbollah. Otherwise, those bastards will not need the French to explain why the Maginot line was ultimately useless. 2.) The hard way. Israel can quickly establish air supremacy over Syria, and U.S. forces in Iraq are positioned also to interdict any resupply (via air or land) from Iran. Assuming Iran does not attempt to transgress this interdiction regime, Hizbollah re-supply can only be taken from existing Syrian stock. Given the destabilizing nature of imposing this set of conditions on Assad, Hizbollah logistic support will likely be disrupted while Syrian internal politics takes over, and so the existing stock will stay put or be expended in a military coup or in a Syrian civil war. The outcome of this process is admittedly uncertain, but if Assad is given an easy way/hard way choice, taking the easy way is less destabilizing to him. By K. Pablo, at Sat Jul 22, 12:56:40 PM The analysis was very good and I thank the writer. #2 by K. Pablo seems right. The key is that Hez and Syria face a difficult task in provisioning of the south lebanese area. Israel's bet bet is to avoid significant infantry battles and, for lack of better words, blow hell out of anything that moves day or night. Refugees could move north but not return. NGOs would be ejected - sorry, try again later. No food, no electricity, no phones, everything jammed. Then they tell the UN to put up or shut up. Raise and commit 100,000 troops to monitor and pacify the area for 10 years. Said troops to be under a unified commander and fully prepared to fight. None to be from Muslim nations or the US. I believe Israel has decided the situation will end, no truce, no meaningless cease fires. Risks, brutality as needed, Geneva be damned if it means their survival. By Anonymous, at Sat Jul 22, 02:19:34 PM DEBKA (all caveats about DEBKA apply) has an interesting report that Iran has taken charge of the war from Nasrallah, and is already flying new long-range missles into Syria. Whether this specific report is true or not, it's impossible to lay out a "full range" of strategies and responses without considering Iran. They will not want to lose this war, even to get a political "victory" while taking a military loss. What this does do is underscore the importance of securing the Bekaa Valley and all lines of communications and supply from Syria. If Assad falls (and he really doesn't have any life insurance at this point; coup or assassination are possibilities that have to be considered), it's a whole new game. By itself, that would be very bad for all in the region; we could assume both an Islamist government and jihadi training camps throughout Syria. But Assad's fall will set other forces in action. An Islamist regime in Damascus would almost certainly be Sunni, which would create friction with both Iran and whatever remains of Hezbollah. The MNF in Iraq wuold have to respond, to protect western Iraq at a minimum. It's crucial to think a few moves ahead of Assad's fall, and to do that thinking now. By nowhere girl, at Sat Jul 22, 03:20:24 PM Nowhere Girl is correct, in so far that we need to really start thinking ahead. What would a Lebanon without Hizb'allah look like? What would a Lebanon with Hizb'allah in control look like? What effect will there be on Syria, and its leaderships actions? Iran? The other Arab states? The ripple effects from this will be huge. By Final Historian, at Sat Jul 22, 03:31:27 PM What would a Lebanon without Hizb'allah look like? With the PLO gone, and Hizb gone I think Lebanon starts to look like the Orlando of the middle east. By Purple Avenger, at Sat Jul 22, 03:54:21 PM Thanks for the pasting - it's a very concise analysis of the military situation. Questions: 1. I was watching Anderson Cooper last night and learned that Hezbollah provides a lot of social services for the Lebanese people (food/water, education/indoctrination, housing, and a "jihad reconstruction" service that fixes people's homes after bombings?!?). If Hezbollah is destroyed, it will be imperative for Israel and other interested parties to ensure that these people are not left wanting their Hezbollah back. How do you all think these functions can be there once the smoke clears? 2. If Hezbollah is doing this "social work" in Lebanon, are other terrorist organizations also doing it for their populations? 3. Should the United States increase foreign aid for social services in areas where terrorists operate? How could this work? I'm coming at this from something of a "hearts'n'minds" angle as well as a humanitarian angle. Your thoughts? By Screwy Hoolie, at Sat Jul 22, 03:59:05 PM Screwy, I believe it was Thomas Barnett who argued that the US military needs to re-organize, and that a large part of it needs to become a kind of "system administration" unit, designed to undertake exactly that kind of re-building. I happen to agree with that. Nations/regions without infrastructure, or where that infrastructure is damaged or decaying are ripe grounds for terrorist movements. The US needs to devote itself to eliminate those "Gaps" in Barnett's parlance. Lebanon is as good a place to start as any. By Final Historian, at Sat Jul 22, 04:55:13 PM Yes, one possibility is: "Refugees could move north but not return ... the UN to put up or shut up. Raise and commit 100,000 troops" (By Anonymous, at Sat Jul 22, 02:19:34 PM) Perhaps also a periodic operation? Clear the area, sign some sort of cease fire and move out. This will break down within a number of years (no real force to stop HA from regrouping). Then start again from beginning. This _will_ be bad news for Lebanon on the long term but is better than occupation for Israel. I think the real problem is the sort range missiles in South Leb. The bigger ones (in the Bakaa) can be handled by the IAF. By Yair (israel), at Sat Jul 22, 06:08:57 PM "Hezbollah wants to draw Israel into protracted fighting in this area in order to inflict maximum casualties and to change the psychological equation for both military and political reasons." This is what Bin Laden wanted to do to the US in Afghanistan and what Saddam Hussein wanted to do to the US in Iraq. It's based on a misreading of what happened in Somalia and Vietnam. The misunderstanding is that western democracies don't cut and run when their vital interests are at stake. This is why Israel will destroy Hezbullah. By Anonymous, at Sat Jul 22, 06:56:23 PM Let's not forget that Israel always has an ace in the hole -- it is an undeclared nuclear power. If its forces were threatened by Syria and those forces could not be evacuated or resupplied, and Syria (with Iranian backing) decided to actively move against Israel, it quickly escalates into an existential war for Israel. At that point, all bets are off, and the Olmert can make a decision that ends the war in less time than it takes to broadcast a CNN special. Taking out Damascus and Tehran would have far reaching consequences, but I suppose it solves the West's problem of Iranian nuclear power/weapons development, at least for the forseeable future. By Escort81, at Sat Jul 22, 06:58:55 PM I was the anon who spoke of 100,000 troops, etc. to Yair: I am perhaps more anti-UN than pro-Israeli. If the UN will not help - and help with force that means something - then regard them as defunct, spit towards them, and be brave. It seems that Israel decided to up the stakes come what may. And they certainly have been taking enough from Hez and Gaza. The world can now see that Hez in Lebanon had become s real military force determined to damage Israel by any means available. Prior to this Hez was hardly in the news in the US. Our media tended to portray them as a few hundred inept guys who occasionally shot across the border. By Anonymous, at Sat Jul 22, 07:04:25 PM Screwy, You asked: "3. Should the United States increase foreign aid for social services in areas where terrorists operate? How could this work?" Hez does provide social services that many in South Lebanon depend on. But they also provide something else far more powerful to the Shia of South Lebanon:an ideology that plausibly claims ascendancy and greatness for their ethnic group. Thus, outcompeting Hez for Lebanese hearts/minds on the basis of social services provided will not be possible until this ideology (that so many Lebanese fervently believe) is convincingly defeated. One recalls that Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were pretty fair providers of social services in their own right. But before anyone else could come in and provide a competing version of social welfare, the ideology supporting the whole structure had to be destroyed. As in WWII, the war cannot be truly won unless the Hezbollah/jihadist ideology is shown to be a lost cause to those who follow it. A tough challenge, to be sure, but not impossible. By panther33, at Sat Jul 22, 07:53:55 PM Wars only end when you attack the center of gravity of the enemy. What if we ignored the "political realities" and viewed the stage as the entire Middle East, not a seperate Lebanese, Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian problems but as one "field of bottle". Considering that, if Anglo (Israel was a British colony, after all) coalition is following a legitimate battle plan, it should begin to react across the field. One other thing -- perhaps what is going on here is that America feels it can't defeat the threat from Islamist guerilla movements due to asymettrical advantages. In order to crush the Islamist threat, do we need for them to take over state governments? Then, fight a more "recognized" war which allows for a kind of victory? Just jawboning here... By quantum, at Sat Jul 22, 08:22:55 PM Quantum, it is conventional wisdom that the U.S. armed forces are second to none in pitched battles. I think if Iran did something foolish like pour Revolutionary Guard Units across the Iraqi border (as threatened by Iran's General Yahya Rahim Safavi)in open large unit warfare, they can expect a lot of problems. I doubt, however, that it is U.S. policy to maneuver the Iranians into committing such a step. By K. Pablo, at Sat Jul 22, 08:33:15 PM Just a thought on those fortified centers from which the Hiz launch rockets and operations. How many of those 21,000 lb MOAB bombs, and their older 15,000 lb Daisy Cutter cousins do we have in stock? I wonder if Israel would like some. They would rattle some cages as well as some china. By Ed Nutter, at Sat Jul 22, 10:28:48 PM Post a Comment |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 7:27:33 PM EDT
[#22]
Great Stratfor read, AL.
Thanks for posting that. HH |
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Posted: 7/22/2006 9:37:21 PM EDT
[#23]
Notifications to Congress of Pending U.S. Arms Transfers
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 items found Country Date Transmission No. Description Transfer Type Price Israel 7/21/2005 05-31 A fleet management program for U.S. Government and contractor management and logistics support of Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16A/B Pratt and Whitney F-100 model engines, spare and repair parts, support equipment, publications and technical documentation, personnel training and training equipment, U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services and other related elements of logistics support Foreign Military Sales $600 million Israel 4/28/2005 05-10 100 Guided Bomb Units (GBU-28) that include: BLU-113A/B penetration warhead, WGU-36A/B guidance control unit, FMU-143H/B bomb fuze, and BSG-92/B airfoil group guide. Also included are: support equipment; testing, spare and repair parts; supply support; publications and technical data, U.S. Government and contractor technical assistance and other related elements of logistics support. Foreign Military Sales $30 million Israel 10/6/2004 DDTC 049-04A Technical data, assistance and defense articles to Israel for the sale of the MATBAT Phase II combat simulator for the Israeli Ministry of Defense Direct Commercial Sales >$50 million Israel 9/14/2004 DDTC 077-04 (Note: This sales notification is for Transmittal No. DDTC 077-04 and is entered in the database under Israel, Greece, Singapore, Chile, Oman and Poland) The transaction contained in the attached certification involves the export of technical data, defense services and hardware to Israel for the production of AN/APG-68(V)9 radar antenna LRU, tranmitter LRU, antenna and transmitter subassemblies and test equipment for end-use in Israel, Greece, Singapore, Chile, Oman and Poland. Direct Commercial Sales >$50 million Israel 9/13/2004 04-31 Defense services for the continued construction of two infantry training bases and a storage and logistics base for a reserve-armored division. The US Army Corps of Engineers will provide planning, design, acquisition, construction administration, and management services for this program. The construction of the proposed bases is part of United States assistance to Israel in support of the Wye River Memorandum, a Middle East Peace agreement signed on October 23, 1998. Foreign Military Sales $350 million Israel 9/7/2004 04-20 JP-8 aviation jet fuel Foreign Military Sales $102 million Israel 9/7/2004 04-15 103 Textron troop carrier armored vehicles, testing, spare and repair parts, support equipment, contractor engineering and technical support, and other related elements of program support. Foreign Military Sales $99 million Israel 8/4/2004 DDTC 062-04 Defense articles, technical data and assistance necessary to integrate and qualify a self-protection electronic warfare suite for the Israeli Air Froce F-16J fighter aircraft fleet for end-use by the Israeli Air Force Direct Commercial Sales >$50 million Israel 6/10/2004 DDTC 024-04 (Note: This sales notification is for Transmittal No. DDTC 024-04 and is entered in the database under Israel, Belgium, Greece, Turkey, Poland, and South Korea). Export of defense services, technical data and defense articles to Israel to support the manufacture and assembly of F-16 components and parts. The technical data and defense articles will then be re-transferred to Belgium, Greece, Turkey, Poland and the Repbulic of Korea. Special Israel 6/1/2004 04-09 5,000 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) tail kits (which include 2,500 GBU-31 for MK-84, 500 GBU-31 for BLU-109, 500 GBU-32 for MK-83, and 1,500 GBU-30 for MK-82 bombs); 2,500 MK-84 live bombs; 1,500 MK-82 live bombs; 500 BLU-109 live bombs; 500 MK-83 live bombs; 40 MK-84 inert bombs; 40 MK-82 inert bombs; 40 BLU-109 inert bombs; 40 MK-83 inert bombs; 4,500 DSU-33B/B live fuze components; 4,500 FMU-139B/B live fuze components; and 500 FMU-143B/B live fuze components. Foreign Military Sales $319 millon Israel 5/5/2004 DDTC 026-04 Export of defense services, technical data and defense articles to Israel to support the manufacture and assembly of various components for the Israeli indigenous anti-ballistic missile weapons - the Arrow Weapons System (AWS) -- Arrow Interceptor. Special >$50 million Israel 4/20/2004 DDTC 001-04 Export to Israel of technical data and defense services to upgrade sixty-two (62) M106A2 self-propelled 107mm Mortars to the M1064A3 configuration. Direct Commercial Sales >$14 million --------------------------------------------- Guided Bomb Unit-28 (GBU-28) BLU-113 Penetrator The Guided Bomb Unit-28 (GBU-28) is a special weapon developed for penetrating hardened Iraqi command centers located deep underground. The GBU-28 is a 5,000-pound laser-guided conventional munition that uses a 4,400-pound penetrating warhead. The bombs are modified Army artillery tubes, weigh 4,637 pounds, and contain 630 pounds of high explosives. They are fitted with GBU-27 LGB kits, 14.5 inches in diameter and almost 19 feet long. The operator illuminates a target with a laser designator and then the munition guides to a spot of laser energy reflected from the target. The GBU 28 "Bunker Buster" was put together in record time to support targeting of the Iraqi hardened command bunker by adapting existing materiel. The GBU-28 was not even in the early stages of research when Kuwait was invaded. The USAF asked industry for ideas in the week after combat operations started. Work on the bomb was conducted in research laboratories including the the Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate located at Eglin AFB, Florida and the Watervliet Armory in New York. The bomb was fabricated starting on 1 February, using surplus 8-inch artillery tubes as bomb casings because of their strength and weight. The official go-ahead for the project was issued on 14 February, and explosives for the initial units were hand-loaded by laboratory personnel into a bomb body that was partially buried upright in the ground. The first two units were delivered to the USAF on 16 and 17 February, and the first flight to test the guidance software and fin configuration was conducted on 20 February. These tests were successful and the program proceeded with a contract let on 22 February. A sled test on 26 February proved that the bomb could penetrate over 20 feet of concrete, while an earlier flight test had demonstrated the bomb's ability to penetrate more than 100 feet of earth. The first two operational bombs were delivered to the theater on 27 February. The Air Force produced a limited quantity of the GBU-28 during Operation Desert Storm to attack multi-layered, hardened underground targets. Only two of these weapons were dropped in Desert Storm, both by F-111Fs. One weapon hit its precise aimpoint, and the onboard aircraft video recorder displayed an outpouring of smoke from an entrance way approximately 6 seconds after impact. After Operation Desert Storm, the Air Force incorporated some modifications, and further tested the munition. The Fy1997 budget request contained $18.4 million to procure 161 GBU-28 hard target penetrator bombs.  |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 3:36:40 AM EDT
[#24]
this is just hilarious. hilarious. these people must long for an israeli occupation....
IS the lebanese govenrmetn fucking retarded? |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 3:39:41 AM EDT
[#25]
Stop now, immediately
By Gideon Levy This war must be stopped now and immediately. From the start it was unnecessary, even if its excuse was justified, and now is the time to end it. Every day raises its price for no reason, taking a toll in blood that gives Israel nothing tangible in return. This is a good time to stop the war because both sides can claim they won: Israel harmed Hezbollah and Hezbollah harmed Israel. History shows that no situation is better for reaching an arrangement. Remember the lessons of the Yom Kippur War. Israel went into the campaign on justified grounds and with foul means. It claims it has declared war on Hezbollah but, in practice, it is destroying Lebanon. It has gotten most of what it could have out of this war. The aerial "target bank" has mostly been covered. The air force could continue to sow destruction in the residential neighborhoods and empty offices and could also continue dropping dozens of tons of bombs on real or imagined bunkers and kill innocent Lebanese, but nothing good will come of it. Those who want to restore Israel's deterrent capabilities have succeeded. Hezbollah and the rest of its enemies know that Israel reacts with enormous force to any provocation. South Lebanon is cleaner now of a Hezbollah presence. In any case, the organization is likely to return there, just as it is likely to rearm. An international agreement could be achieved now, and it won't be possible to achieve a better deal at a reasonable price in the future. Israel's other goals - returning the captured soldiers and the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah - will anyway be more difficult to achieve even if the war goes on for weeks and months. The IDF is now asking for "two more weeks" and in another two weeks it will ask for "another two weeks." A decisive victory is not in the offing. On the other hand, the price is skyrocketing. Every day increases international criticism of Israel and hatred of it. That is also an element in "national security." As opposed to the choir in Israel that makes a false presentation as if the world is cheering Israel, the images from Beirut are causing Israel enormous damage, and rightly so. Not only in the streets of the Arab world is more and more hatred being sown, but also in the West. Not only hundreds of thousands of Lebanese but tens of thousands of Westerners fleeing from Lebanon are contributing to the depiction of Israel as a violent, crude and destructive state. The fact that George Bush and Tony Blair are cheering Israel might be consolation for Ehud Olmert and the media in Israel, but it is not enough to persuade millions of TV viewers who see the images of destruction and devastation, most of which are not shown to Israeli audiences. The world sees entire neighborhoods that have been destroyed, hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing in panic, homeless, and hundreds of civilians dead and wounded including many children who have nothing to do with Hezbollah. The continuation of the war therefore is neither moral nor worthwhile. The economic blow the war caused to Israel will even remain limited if the war ends now. A lethal summer will exact a much greater economic price. The Israeli rear, which has so far displayed impressive resilience, will not remain indifferent in the shelters for much longer. Slowly, the cracks will open and citizens will begin to ask why we are dying and what we are killing for. That's just the way of war. At first, nobody asks why, but the more entangled they become, the more difficult the questions become. We've been here before, more than once. Wars began with broad national approval and ended with a great crisis. Those who bask now in the consensus should know that nothing lasts forever. The war will become an imbroglio. When it becomes apparent that the air force is not enough, the ground invasion that has already begun will intensify. The cliche about the Lebanese quagmire will be revalidated, and when the soldiers are killed, as is already happening daily, in house to house hunting, the protests will rise and divide society. Now Israel is hoping for the elimination of Nasrallah. That's an atavistic impulse, even if understandable, which seeks the head of the enemy in order to prove our victory over him. There's no wisdom or practicality in it. Once again it is worth reminding ourselves of the dozens of people Israel assassinated in Lebanon and the territories, from Sheikh Abbas Mussawi to Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, each replaced by someone new, usually more talented and dangerous than the predecessor. The goals of the war should not be dictated by dark impulses, even if they come in response to the wishes and demands of the mob. The only advantage that would benefit Israel from the elimination of Nasrallah would be that maybe it would bring about an end to the warring. But it can be halted even without that. The other desired goal, the return of the prisoners, will anyway only be achieved through negotiations to release prisoners. Israel could have done that before the war. It is still too early to weigh out the balance of achievements and failures of this war. The day will come when it will become clear that it was purposeless, as are all wars of choice. Ceasing it now guarantees a limited achievement at a limited price. Continuing it guarantees a heavy price without any guarantee of a suitable reward. Therefore, Israel must cease and desist. The president of the United States can push us to continue the war all he wants, the prime minister of Britain can cheer us in parliament, but in Israel and Lebanon, the blood is being spilled, the horror is intensifying, the price is rising and it is all for naught. www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/741435.html |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 3:47:48 AM EDT
[#26]
great reponse to that article (kinda)
Though major news orgs are actually noting that web is now favorring the israeli PR. interesting cause hte israeli pr is coming from israelis, cellphone videos on youtube, blogs, etc. the world is watchign these vvidoes and really hurting with israel. I guess the lebanese don't have the PR machine (represented by american NGO's mainly) that the pali's do. ISrael seems to be winning the war on teh 'blogoshpere' (retarded term).
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Posted: 7/23/2006 6:13:19 AM EDT
[#27]
Glad to see their country has its defeatist libtards too. This guy woulfd help load everyone up on the trains to the ovens I guess.
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Posted: 7/23/2006 6:46:14 AM EDT
[#28]
Israel says it would accept NATO-led force By SAM F. GHATTAS, Associated Press Writers
4 minutes ago BEIRUT, Lebanon - Israeli warplanes struck a minibus carrying people fleeing the fighting Sunday in southern Lebanon, killing three people, Lebanese security officials said, and Israel said it would accept a NATO-led international force to keep the peace along the border. Hezbollah rockets killed two civilians in northern Israel, and a member of the U.N. observer team in south Lebanon was wounded by guerrilla fire. A Lebanese photographer became the first journalist to die in the fighting when an Israeli missile hit near her taxi in southern Lebanon. The top U.N. humanitarian official, touring Beirut, said billions of dollars will be needed to repair damage from 12 days of warfare. Israeli troops continued to hold a Lebanese border village that they battled their way into the day before, but did not appear to be advancing, Lebanese security officials said. Its warplanes and artillery, meanwhile, were battering areas across the south. Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz told the Cabinet that the current offensive is not an invasion of Lebanon, but rather a series of limited raids into the area. Peretz also said that Israel would accept a temporary international force, preferably headed by NATO, deployed along the Lebanese border to keep Hezbollah guerrillas away from Israel, according to officials in Peretz's office. Israel also hit the southern port of Sidon for the first time in its campaign, destroying a religious complex linked to Hezbollah and wounding four people. More than 35,000 people streaming north from the heart of the war zone had swamped the city, which is teetering under the weight of refugees. Israel also bombed a textile factory in the border town of al-Manara, killing one person and wounding two, Mayor Ali Rahal told The Associated Press. The stricken minibus was carrying 16 people fleeing the village of Tairi, working their way through the mountains for the southern port city of Tyre. A missile hit the bus near the village of Yaatar, killing three and wounding the rest, security officials said. The wounded were taken to hospitals in Tyre. On Saturday, the Israeli military told residents of Taire and 12 other nearby villages to evacuate by 4 p.m. At least four other people were killed by strikes in the south, Lebanese television said, but the deaths were not confirmed by security officials. About 45 people were wounded in Israeli air raids that targeted villages and towns around Tyre, security and hospital officials said. The three deaths in the minibus brought to at least 375 the official death toll provided by Lebanese authorities. Israel's death toll stands at 36, with 17 people killed by Hezbollah rockets and 19 soldiers killed in fighting. A photographer working for a Lebanese magazine was killed when an Israeli missile exploded near her taxi, security officials said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. Layal Nejim, 23, worked for the Lebanese magazine Al-Jaras, the officials said. Her driver survived. A U.N. observer was wounded by Hezbollah gunfire during fighting with Israeli troops in south Lebanon, said U.N. spokesman Milos Strugar. The Italian chiefs of staff office identified the wounded U.N. official as Italian Capt. Roberto Punzo, saying he was flown by helicopter to a civilian hospital in Haifa and adding that his life was not in danger. He was the second member of the U.N. monitoring team injured in 12 days of fighting. Several U.N. positions on the border have taken hits from Israeli shells, and Israel said earlier this week that a U.N. post on its side was hit by a Hezbollah missile — although the observer team said it was a stray Israeli shell. Israeli warplanes and helicopters bombed Nabi Sheet, near the eastern Bekaa Valley town of Baalbek, wounding five people, witnesses said. In Baalbek, strikes leveled an agricultural compound belonging to Hezbollah. Raids also targeted a factory producing prefabricated houses near the main highway linking Beirut to the Syrian capital of Damascus, witnesses said. Two civilians died in early morning air raids on border villages, witnesses said. A 15-year-old boy was killed at Meis al-Jabal, and a man was killed at Blida. Hezbollah rockets badly damaged a house and slammed into a major road in Haifa, Israel's third-largest city, killing two people, and at least 13 others were wounded across northern Israel. Peretz said the 12-day-old offensive in Lebanon would continue as Israel tries to push Hezbollah guerrillas away from the border. "The army's ground operation in Lebanon is focused on limited entrances, and we are not talking about an invasion of Lebanon. We are beginning to see the army's successes opposite Hezbollah," he told the Cabinet, according to a participant in the meeting. Peretz also met with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, one of a series of diplomatic meetings aimed at ending the fighting. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy was also scheduled to meet with Israeli officials, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was headed to the region as well. "The goal is to create a situation in which we have as broad a space for diplomatic movement as possible," Peretz said after meeting Steinmeier. "The goals we set for ourselves will be achieved. We certainly see a combination of a military operation that is fulfilling its role plus broad international activity to complete the process." In Iran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel had "pushed the button of its own destruction" by attacking Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon. He didn't elaborate, but suggested Islamic nations and others could somehow isolate Israel and its main backers led by the United States. On Saturday, the chairman of Iran's armed forced joint chiefs, Maj. Gen. Sayyed Hassan Firuzabadi, said Iran would never join the current Middle East fighting. U.N. humanitarian chief Jan Egeland, meanwhile, inspected the destruction wrought by Israeli air raids on south Beirut as he began a relief mission to Lebanon. Making his way around piles of rubble, he stressed the need for a halt to the hostilities. "If it continues like this, there will be more and more civilian casualties," he told reporters. Egeland also planned to travel to Israel for further coordination on opening aid corridors. The number of displaced people has grown to 600,000, according to the World Health Organization. Egeland said Saturday it would take more than $100 million to help the displaced. He said he would make an appeal "urging, begging" the international community for aid. Evacuees in Sidon were stretching supplies of fuel, food and some medicines that already were tight for its own population of 100,000 and nearly impossible to replenish. "There are no supplies reaching us, not from other nations, nor from the Lebanese government," said Mayor Abdul-Rahman al-Bizri, whose city was so packed that Palestinian refugees were taking in Lebanese refugees. Sidon was only one face of the mounting humanitarian crisis across Lebanon amid an Israeli blockade and bombardment that has made roads unusable or too dangerous to distribute supplies to the south. The Israeli military has announced that humanitarian aid could enter through Beirut's port and determined a coastal to Tripoli as a land corridor for aid. But it did not define a safe passage route to the south — where the bombardment is heaviest. Aid supplies arrived Friday and Saturday on ships carrying Europeans fleeing the country. The exodus of foreigners continues, with tens of thousands — including 7,500 Americans — taken out by sea the past week. |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 6:51:39 AM EDT
[#29]
The person who wrote that has to be some kind of psychotic... he doesnt see the rockets landing around him? If he thinks he is so evil he deserves to die why does he not commit suicide and spare the rest of us... |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 6:53:32 AM EDT
[#30]
They may accept it if it shows up and leaves them no choice, but there is no way they could WANT it. And they have way too many troops to call this a "limited raid" |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 6:59:39 AM EDT
[#31]
July 22, 2006
Telegraphing the punch - IDF moving into southern Lebanon By Bill Roggio Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied; red IDF warned of operations. Click map to view. The Israeli Defense Force is probing along the Lebanese frontier. Earlier today the IDF took control of Maroun al-Ras. Israeli army units have also occupied the towns of Yarum and Marwahin (Marwahin further west, and is currently occupied by the Herev battalion). The town of Bint Jubayl, described as the "'Hezbollah capital' in southern Lebanon", is a strategic target in the south-central front. "Currently, the IDF is moving [towards Bint Jubayl] with fire and surveillance," reports Ynet News. The move into the central region of southern Lebanon was telegraphed by the Israeli Defense Force. Saturday evening (Israeli time) the IDF issued specific warnings to the residents of 14 towns to leave, as a military operation is eminent (Ynet News reports 13 villages, but then lists 14). I was able to identify the first 12 town on the list below (the alternative spelling is in brackets): Aitrun (Aytarun), Atiri (At Tiri), Barashit (Brashit), Beit Yahoun (Bayt Yahun), Bint Jubayl, Bleida (Blida), Einata (Aynata), Hadatiya (Haddathah), Hirbat Salim (Khirbat Slim), Majal Salim (Majdal Slim), Shakra (Shaqra), Yarun, Kontin and Kharsat a-Talab. A quick look at the map shows the IDF is planning on driving up through the central region of Southern Lebanon likely all the way to the Litani River, splitting the southern region in two and cutting off the western supply lines from Syria. It should be clear that this may also be a sophisticated information operation, but base on the heavy fighting in the Avivim/Maroun al-Ras region over the course of several days, and the proximity of the 'Hezbollah capital', the IDF push looks legitimate. Due to the international scrutiny and condemnation of the Israeli air and ground offensive, the Israelis are forced to warn off the local population and compromise operational security. This is a harsh reality of modern war, where nations are under the microscope of the international media and the "insurgent" information operations are not recognized by the media. The Israeli Air Force also dropped leaflets warning the residents to evacuate the entire region south of the Litani River: "To residents of villages south of the Litani River: due to the terror incidents being carried out from within your villages and homes against the State of Israel, the IDF is forced to respond immediately, even within the villages. You are all asked to evacuate the villages immediately for your own welfare. The State of Israel." Hezbollah prefers the civilians to stay. The IDF states Hezbollah has prevented residents from leave the villages. Hezbollah is using the townspeople as human shields, running up civilian casualties and increasing the international condemnation of the Israeli operation. "In two villages, exchanges of fire between residents and Hizbullah have broken out." July 22, 2006 11:14 PM Link TrackBack (1) |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 7:16:30 AM EDT
[#32]
July 23, 2006
Iran caught red handed in smuggling nuclear material By Olivier Guitta Last week Agence France Presse reported that Bulgaria had stopped at its border with Romania a truck filled with radiocative material destined to Iran. According to Serguei Tstatchev, head of the Bulgarian Nuclear Control Agency, the truck rented by a British company and Turkish registration was on its way to Istanbul and then Tehran. It contained radioactive material including cesium and its radiocative rate was 200 times the normal rate. While Iran is a little diverting attention with its proxy Hezbollah, it's still focused on implementing quickly its nuclear program. It is high time that the international community acted firmly on Iran because the problem is not going away anytime soon. Hezbollah is the living proof of this... July 23, 2006 10:07 AM Link TrackBack (0) |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 7:17:03 AM EDT
[#33]
Shit, check out this person's response to this posting: Title: Thank you Name: Etelka City: Haifa State: Thank you Gideon Levy for this article that speaks from the heart of many! There is no excuse to violence from any side. If our arguments are good, if we know to present them at the table of negociations, if we respect even our so-called enemies, we shall win. But if we use violence we will lose, on all fronts and everywhere. This response purportedly come from Haifa. Maybe it's Haifa, NJ, USA. As the rockets come down there, I wonder where Etelka really is? |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 7:25:30 AM EDT
[#34]
Even if he were 100% right - which he isn't - it shows that all the terrorists have to do is give the appearance of a "morass" and Israel will back right down. Screw that noise! 
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Posted: 7/23/2006 7:56:40 AM EDT
[#35]
Remember, Haifa has a fairly large Arab population, and the one TV interview I've seen with an Israeli Arab resident of Haifa was very sad. This man has lost two sons to a Hezbolah rocket, and the nutcase was blaming ISRAEL for their deaths. His take was that if the Israeli govt. hadn't responded to the original kidnapping of the soldiers, his kids wouldn't have died. While I can understand his grief, his reasoning, and Arab thought processes in general, leave me shaking my head in bewilderment. 
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Posted: 7/23/2006 7:58:54 AM EDT
[#36]
It's reflexive. Blame Israel on everything, much as the Dipshitcrats blame GW for everything.
Blaming Israel for everything is as easy as breathing for them. HH |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 8:10:28 AM EDT
[#37]
Anything to avoid personal responsibility. |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 8:23:04 AM EDT
[#38]
Israel should tell them 'no dice' and keep at it. Unless they return the soldiers immediately and stop firing rockets the war should march on. They should NEVER negotiate with these animals. All that does is let them go back, lick their wounds and resupply for the futrure.
HH ==================================== Report: Hizbullah willing to talk By JPOST.COM STAFF Hizbullah agreed to allow the Lebanese government to begin negotiations regarding kidnapped IDF soldiers, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri revealed on Sunday. Berri stressed that prior to any talks on a prisoner swap, a cease-fire must be in place. Earlier, Lebanese Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh told a French news agency that the soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, were in "good physical condition." This was the first time the Lebanese government released any statements about the two soldiers, who were captured by the Hizbullah 12 days ago. He also called on the UN - or any other third party - to mediate a prisoner exchange between the Hizbullah and Israel. |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 8:24:57 AM EDT
[#39]
No big revelation here but the question had crossed my mind before as to the actual physical size of Lebanon. A map I just looked at shows the country to be approx 120 miles north/south.
The section south of the Litoni river is approx 18(n/s) x 20(e/w) miles in size. Heck, that ain't much more real estate than what's inside Loop 610 around Houston. Like I said, no astounding post, just caught my eye. t map of Lebanon |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 9:02:01 AM EDT
[#40]
Some old wounds never heal. Some of you younger guys here may not know about this.
ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=484738 |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 9:42:43 AM EDT
[#41]
you have to learn to talk the right language int eh middle east. This is all they understand...
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Posted: 7/23/2006 10:39:49 AM EDT
[#42]
thread |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 12:48:19 PM EDT
[#43]
I wonder if he is any relation to Baghdad Bob. |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 1:00:51 PM EDT
[#44]
My guess is there's one in every bunch LOL! By the way, if so, do we have a "Baghdad Bob" in the US ? t |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 1:03:26 PM EDT
[#45]
Howard Dean... |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 1:07:03 PM EDT
[#46]
Syria said they'd get involved if Israeli forces approched Damascus. Left unsaid is the implication that if they invade Lebanon but _don't_ approach Damascus, Syria will not intervene. Most likely the Israelis will just go to the Litani river and stay out of the Bekka valley.
Intresting that Hezbollah wants to talk now. That shows they're under some pressure from either their sponsors or orther Lebanese political factions. Of course they want a ceasefire in place first, since that will allow them to stall. |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 1:09:58 PM EDT
[#47]
This isn't the damned Civil War, one does not need a ceasefire to talk... You can talk on a damn cell phone while the bombs are dropping. "Can't you hear me now Achmed?" *BOOM* "Good." |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 1:40:12 PM EDT
[#48]
If this isn't a threat then nothing is. I'm really concerned about the August 22nd date that they referred to. Saying that Israel has "pushed the button on its own destruction" clearly is a threat, and further.."has reached the finish line" just cements the threat.
This will be a very interesting week.  HH ===================================================== Iran: Israel doomed to 'destruction' By ASSOCIATED PRESS TEHERAN Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared Sunday that Israel had "pushed the button of its own destruction" by launching its military campaign against the Iranian-backed Hizbullah in Lebanon. Ahmadinejad didn't elaborate, but suggested Islamic nations and others could somehow isolate Israel and its main backers led by the United States. On Saturday, the chairman of Iran's armed forced joint chiefs, Maj.-Gen. Sayyed Hassan Firuzabadi, said Iran would never join the current Middle East fighting. Ahmadinejad's latest salvo against Israel came as the 12-day-old hostilities in Lebanon continued. The hard-line president drew international condemnation last year after publicly calling for Israel to be wiped out and calling the Holocaust a "myth." Iran helped create the anti-Israel Hizbullah movement in the early 1980s and is among its main supplier of arms and funds. But Teheran has denied Israeli claims it is sent Hizbullah long-range missiles that have reached Haifa and other points in northern Israel since the battles broke out nearly two weeks ago following a cross-border Hizbullah raid that captured two Israeli soldiers. "Britain and the United States are accomplices of the Zionist regime in its crimes in Lebanon and Palestine," said Ahmadinejad. He said "the people of the region will respond" unless Israel and its allies apologize for their policies. "Arrogant powers have set up a base for themselves to threaten and plunder nations in the region," said Ahmadinejad. "But today, the occupier regime (Israel) - whose philosophy is based on threats, massacre and invasion - has reached its finishing line." Last week, Ahmadinejad sent a letter to German Chancellor Angela Merkel that contained statements about Israel and the Holocaust that are "not acceptable," said German officials. Germany has sharply criticized Ahmadinejad's anti-Israel statements. In Teheran, the government has sanctioned billboards showing Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah and a message that it is the duty of Muslims to "wipe out" Israel. Officials also organized a demonstration in the southern city of Shiraz by Iran's small Jewish community calling for Israel's destruction and praising Hizbullah. |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 1:44:23 PM EDT
[#49]
For one thing, I'd love to see Israel (or SOMEBODY) get into the Bekaa valley with heavy satellite surveillance overhead to track movements. It's supposedly where Hizballah is being supplied and armed from, and I'd bet Iraq's WMDs are there too. And I think the only reason Hizballah wants to talk is to make it appear that they're decent. They know that any real cease fire that Israel would (rightly) agree to includes them disarming - and we all know how that would go over. IMHO it's not pressure; it's just a stalling tactic. |
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Posted: 7/23/2006 1:47:40 PM EDT
[#50]
Sure would be nice to find a boatload of rockets that can be destroyed...and maybe dozens of Hezzies, too.
HH ------------------------------------------------------------------- IDF prepares for raid on Hizbullah's 'terror capital' By YAAKOV KATZ Israel geared up to push its military forces deeper into Lebanon late Sunday night as ground troops took up positions outside their new target - the village of Bint Jubayl, branded the Hizbullah's "terror capital" in southern Lebanon. Despite sporadic gunbattles throughout the day in the village of Maroun al-Ras - the scene of heavy fighting last week - the IDF on Sunday dispatched troops to take up positions on the outskirts of Bint Jubayl, a village east of Maroun al-Ras. IDF sources estimated that Hizbullah had accumulated large quantities of weapons and missiles in the village, which they said would be raided as part of Operation Change of Direction launched July 12, following the abduction of two soldiers in a cross-border Hizbullah attack. Bint Jubayl, the sources said, had become Hizbullah's main base of terror operations since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. The Shi'ite village served as a comfortable and sympathetic breeding ground, they said, for the Hizbullah. Over the weekend however the IDF noticed that a large percentage of the village had begun to move to the north after IAF fighter jets distributed flyers warning residents there of the looming IDF raid. Sources said that only 20 percent of the 20,000 residents in the village remained alongside the Hizbullah fighters. Meanwhile Sunday, the IDF said it planned to finish razing Hizbullah outposts along the border with Israel by the end of the week. The plan, officials said, was to create a one-km-security zone along the border and into Lebanon that would be off limits to Hizbullah guerillas. The IDF was also considering laying mines in the area. Head of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin warned Sunday night that Hizbullah might try to surprise Israel by attempting to kidnap Israeli soldiers or by attacking Israeli institutions abroad. He said that Hizbullah was influenced by Iran and Syria, both of which were enjoying from the current conflict in the North since it drew international pressure away from them. Yadlin said that in some villages in southern Lebanon, the Hizbullah had hidden rockets which it received from Syria and Iran inside private homes, sometimes building new rooms to house the missiles. |
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