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Inflow is probably a calculated number. Surface area of the reservoir is 15,800 acres, and you know reservoir elevation and gate head (i.e. outflow) They are lowering the elevation of the lake about 4" per hour (give or take) that is a net outflow of about 64kcfs. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Forecast call for mid to upper 60's today, so I expect the inflow to increase as the day goes on. Well, that is if they decide to get back to reporting inflow levels. Inflow is probably a calculated number. Surface area of the reservoir is 15,800 acres, and you know reservoir elevation and gate head (i.e. outflow) They are lowering the elevation of the lake about 4" per hour (give or take) that is a net outflow of about 64kcfs. Which still means that it would take 150 hours, or 6.25 days, to lower the water level to the target of 850'. Also, like I stated on the last page, today's forecast calls for mid- to upper 60's temperatures which will lead to an increased inflow which will slow down the reduction of water storage. Yesterday and the day before seemed like relatively nice, dry days and the inflows were around 55k/cfs - I don't think it's unreasonable to expect similar numbers throughout the day today. I don't think that they will be able to continue to 100k/cfs when the rain starts coming in; I don't think the Feather River will be able to handle the outflow and the run-off at the same time. |
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I predict you won't see any more water going over the emergency spillway. They are going to have to just use the main spillway and dump however much water it takes to keep the level below the emergency spillway level and worry about the damage to the main spillway later. View Quote The problem is the damn can only be lowered to the bottom of the spillway gates. One single storm can raise it back up to that height again. For example, this last storm had 200,000 ft.³ a second coming into the lake. If that happens again 200,000 ft.³ a second is going to come right over. And much more than 200 could come in if its a big storm. |
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I predict you won't see any more water going over the emergency spillway. They are going to have to just use the main spillway and dump however much water it takes to keep the level below the emergency spillway level and worry about the damage to the main spillway later. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Respectfully, I don't think the main dam will fail, but if the water gets too high over the emergency spillway, that could easily fail. I just saw the current live helicopter video, even with the 100k flow rate, it doesn't appear that the spillway has eroded upstream at all overnight. That's a great sign. I predict you won't see any more water going over the emergency spillway. They are going to have to just use the main spillway and dump however much water it takes to keep the level below the emergency spillway level and worry about the damage to the main spillway later. If they can only run the main spill at 100k CFS, then there WILL be water over the e-spill later this spring. It is a mathematical certainty. Remember the main spillway takes water from a relatively high spot. Unless they get the main turbines open and flowing again, that's ALL the water they can drain... and it doesn't take much of what happened last week to overwhelm things -- again assuming they continue to run the main spill at less than its peak design flow rate. Looking at the vids now, though , it looks like they caught a huge break. the main spillway is not fucking up more. Its fairly stable at the end of the current segment. That is VERY good news. |
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What is the flow rate through the power house, IF all the generators were running?
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Live Feeds ABC KRCR Ch.7 Website: https://livestream.com/KRCR/events/3724366 Media Player: http://livestream-f.akamaihd.net/i/10262876_3724366_21538261_1@130528/index_2320_av-p.m3u8?sd=10&dw=100&rebase=on&hdntl=exp=1487034023~acl=%2fi%2f10262876_3724366_21538261_1%40130528%2f*~data=hdntl~hmac=9c6f5e6e738cf0e346082bbed8356f3e4a5843e4abf86c9ac2b5bd347a3d3c85 CBS Ch.13 Website: http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/show/live-video/ Media Player: http://play-prod1.live.anvato.net/server/play/cbslocal-kovrx-dfp/master.m3u8 NBC KCRA Ch.3 Website: http://www.kcra.com/nowcast FaceBook: https://www.facebook.com/KCRA3/ FOX KTXL Ch.40 Website: https://livestream.com/accounts/9486720/events/3245377 Media Player: https://dai.google.com/linear/hls/event/DbrOivejTLmmcfcDWFbTHA/variant/cc66bae58548746f217767465846591a/stream/95b94368-4123-4200-ac54-281f2e11ed35:CBF/bandwidth/694272.m3u8 Lake Oroville Live Cam Website: http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=29411 Butte County Sheriff, Cal Fire, Chico and Paradise Police/Fire Scanner Website: http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/1929/web Media Player: http://relay.broadcastify.com/400803170.mp3 Simjedi Multi-Stream Feed https://youtu.be/yhzKVdSnPmg View Quote |
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I see why they were shitting bricks now. I am guessing that the concrete shown under the eSpillway was straight at one time. Now it is sinking all over the place View Quote That's erosion mitigation you are seeing that was completed the day before the E spillway was used. They dumped rocks and then covered the rocks with concrete. |
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Whats the elevation of the bottom of the spillway gates? ie:lowest level of the lake (not accounting for the minimal hydroplant release)
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Lol. Not for a few days, maybe next weekend. I might be able to run south to the point where I can see it off in the distance. But I don't actually have a death wish, Believe it or not View Quote You've gone above and beyond what anyone could ever ask for. You're a rock star in my book ProFryan. |
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If they can only run the main spill at 100k CFS, then there WILL be water over the e-spill later this spring. It is a mathematical certainty. Remember the main spillway takes water from a relatively high spot. Unless they get the main turbines open and flowing again, that's ALL the water they can drain... and it doesn't take much of what happened last week to overwhelm things -- again assuming they continue to run the main spill at less than its peak design flow rate. Looking at the vids now, though , it looks like they caught a huge break. the main spillway is not fucking up more. Its fairly stable at the end of the current segment. That is VERY good news. View Quote I suspect they are trying to throttle the outflow so they don't flood everything downstream more than they have to. I bet that as they see the stability of the upper part of the spillway, they will realise they can increase the flow considerably if/when it becomes necessary again. |
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https://i.imgur.com/HfPzl6B.jpg View Quote wow that pic is amazing, can't wait to see clear pics |
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Try finding them 50years after the project ends. "We're moving office; we need to downsize. Hey do we need to keep these...?" View Quote +1 Or, "Let's send them to Records Holding [in another State] to be converted into digital format," where neither the originals or the promised digital copies are never seen again. James |
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Yep looks like the green part is gone. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/68285/oroville-espill-erosion-monday2-145860.JPG View Quote Two more pics from the news heli this morning. Edit- Damn, Imgur is so messed up when using Chome. |
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Thanks for your efforts and vids. Take some time to chill now. I don't think a lot of folks realize you were heading down that close, and it may take some days to remove the bits of shorts and pants that your ass chewed up in full pucker mode. Still, you will not easily live down the new nickname "poopie pants time" Earned it. Will wear with pride. I disagree. What we need is a picture of ProFryan at the bottom with a surge of water coming at him. Then a caption of him calmly saying "That does not look good. It is time to leave" Maybe the next frame has him looking down to where he was and it is under water and he smiles and says "Good decision to leave." |
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Bet you if they pulled the generators they could increase that number. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I believe they had it at 36,000cfs before having to shut it down. Bet you if they pulled the generators they could increase that number. LOL, no. They can't 'pull' the generators. It really doesn't work that way. |
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so how are they going to clear out the trash that has the bottom drain plugged up?
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Which still means that it would take 150 hours, or 6.25 days, to lower the water level to the target of 850'. Also, like I stated on the last page, today's forecast calls for mid- to upper 60's temperatures which will lead to an increased inflow which will slow down the reduction of water storage. Yesterday and the day before seemed like relatively nice, dry days and the inflows were around 55k/cfs - I don't think it's unreasonable to expect similar numbers throughout the day today. I don't think that they will be able to continue to 100k/cfs when the rain starts coming in; I don't think the Feather River will be able to handle the outflow and the run-off at the same time. View Quote exactly. latest chart - Anyone know what Riv Rel is? it is supposed to be river discharge rate - but it's higher than then spillway outflow (116kcfs vs 99kcfs). How, where is the rest of the H2O coming from? Earlier Date / Time RES ELE STORAGE OUTFLOW INFLOW RIV REL RAIN BAT VOL (PST)FEET AF CFS CFS CFS INCHES VOLTS 02/12/2017 21:00_900.70_3548654_ 0 _14784 _118144 _34.76 _ 13.3 02/12/2017 22:00_900.34 _3542956 _99231 _ 5237 _ 118148 _ 34.76 _ 13.5 02/12/2017 23:00_ 900.11 _3539318_ 99080 _ 33762 _ 115226_ 34.76 _ 13.5 02/13/2017 00:00_899.77 _ 3533936_98832_ 44890 _ 114672 _ 34.76 _ 13.5 02/13/2017 01:00 _899.44_ 3528727 _98595_ -- _ 114428 _34.76 _ 13.4 02/13/2017 02:00_ 899.13 _3523839 _99917 _ -- _ 114923_ 34.76_ 13.4 02/13/2017 03:00_ 898.82 _3518956 _99917_ -- _115312 _34.76 _ 13.5 02/13/2017 04:00_898.53 _3514392 _99989 _ -- _115435 _34.76 _ 13.4 02/13/2017 05:00_898.19 _3509047_ 99878 _ -- _115659 _34.76 _ 13.5 02/13/2017 06:00_ 897.93 _3504963 _ 99822 _ -- _116460 _34.76_ 13.4 02/13/2017 07:00_897.55_3499000_99804_--_116472_34.76_13.4 02/13/2017 08:00_897.22_3493828_99559_--_116771_34.76_13.5 Later | Latest Warning! This data is preliminary and subject to revision. Show ORO Map | 24 Hours ORO Data | Plot all ORO Sensors | Daily ORO Data | ORO Info |
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Maybe. Rocks have been used for millenia to slow the effects of erosion. They can help dissipate the energy of the water coming over the e-spillway instead of the soil taking the full brunt. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Anyone who thinks that dropping bags of rock behind or in front of this weakened structure is going to save it is really in lala land. Bags of rock vs. what is coming in the next few weeks and months, is purely for looks. They have to be seen as doing something at this point its moot. This dam will fail,at the spillway and those in charge know full well it will and there is nothing they can do to stop it. The dice have been rolled and anyone with half a brain can read them. Maybe. Rocks have been used for millenia to slow the effects of erosion. They can help dissipate the energy of the water coming over the e-spillway instead of the soil taking the full brunt. I'm far from an expert, but it will take a whole lot of rocks to hold that water back. |
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I see why they were shitting bricks now. I am guessing that the concrete shown under the eSpillway was straight at one time. Now it is sinking all over the place View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Yep looks like the green part is gone. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/68285/oroville-espill-erosion-monday2-145860.JPG I see why they were shitting bricks now. I am guessing that the concrete shown under the eSpillway was straight at one time. Now it is sinking all over the place |
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Anyone know what Riv Rel is? it is supposed to be river discharge rate - but it's higher than then spillway outflow (116kcfs vs 99kcfs). How, where is the rest of the H2O coming from? Earlier View Quote I was wondering that too. They have vague descriptions of the other readings but not Riv Rel, and I would think it's important. |
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I'm guessing getting the turbines back online will be a priority now. Increasing flow 15% from what it is now will certainly be helpful. View Quote Not possible until this party is over. They can't flow water without spinning the turbines, and they can't spin the turbines without generating electricity, and they can't generate electricity without putting power lines back up to get rid of it. Then they still have the problem of water at the bottom being backed up into the control rooms. |
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You've gone above and beyond what anyone could ever ask for. You're a rock star in my book ProFryan. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Lol. Not for a few days, maybe next weekend. I might be able to run south to the point where I can see it off in the distance. But I don't actually have a death wish, Believe it or not You've gone above and beyond what anyone could ever ask for. You're a rock star in my book ProFryan. He's the best dam thread maker and reporter in all of Arfcom |
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Which still means that it would take 150 hours, or 6.25 days, to lower the water level to the target of 850'. Also, like I stated on the last page, today's forecast calls for mid- to upper 60's temperatures which will lead to an increased inflow which will slow down the reduction of water storage. Yesterday and the day before seemed like relatively nice, dry days and the inflows were around 55k/cfs - I don't think it's unreasonable to expect similar numbers throughout the day today. I don't think that they will be able to continue to 100k/cfs when the rain starts coming in; I don't think the Feather River will be able to handle the outflow and the run-off at the same time. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Forecast call for mid to upper 60's today, so I expect the inflow to increase as the day goes on. Well, that is if they decide to get back to reporting inflow levels. Inflow is probably a calculated number. Surface area of the reservoir is 15,800 acres, and you know reservoir elevation and gate head (i.e. outflow) They are lowering the elevation of the lake about 4" per hour (give or take) that is a net outflow of about 64kcfs. Which still means that it would take 150 hours, or 6.25 days, to lower the water level to the target of 850'. Also, like I stated on the last page, today's forecast calls for mid- to upper 60's temperatures which will lead to an increased inflow which will slow down the reduction of water storage. Yesterday and the day before seemed like relatively nice, dry days and the inflows were around 55k/cfs - I don't think it's unreasonable to expect similar numbers throughout the day today. I don't think that they will be able to continue to 100k/cfs when the rain starts coming in; I don't think the Feather River will be able to handle the outflow and the run-off at the same time. It will handle it better than that wall collapsing. ;) I think it's all relative at this point. I'm no expert, though. |
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I disagree. What we need is a picture of ProFryan at the bottom with a surge of water coming at him. Then a caption of him calmly saying "That does not look good. It is time to leave" Maybe the next frame has him looking down to where he was and it is under water and he smiles and says "Good decision to leave." View Quote I was thinking more like Hey, Coolaid running with the wall replaced by a broken wave of water. |
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So how much time does the DWR have to figure out what to do before the lake starts filling up again ?
If the E spillway is no longer viable do they somehow remove it or open it up to have a steady and slow water flow to take the pressure off the spillway ? |
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They can't empty the lake from the bottom they can only go to the bottom of the spillway gates View Quote This may end up being the Achilles heel. If they can maintain 100K CFS it seems they can drop the level fast enough to make a difference. But not being able to drop below 811' IIRC, may me an issue. I don't know what the flows are like during snowmelt, sustained inflows of >100K could be a major problem. But I would think 50' of lake level could absorb most rain storms (someone calculated 12 ft per inch of rainfall over the entire basin). Keeping in mind that they are out flowing 100K around the clock, rain or not. It will be most interesting to see the mobilization of equipment/manpower in the next few days. The concreting of rock near the base of the tall part of the weir that GD predicted would last minutes, seems to have held up very well. I would expect to see this pick up (lots more placement teams) as soon as they can get that road passable again. This would mitigate the erosion at the base of the weir that seemed to be the major problem. Especially considering the height (therefore water velocity) is much lower. I'd also expect to see a barrier erected at the far side of the parking lot weir. I would think they are already staging as much equipment as they can haul in, as well as stockpiling rock somewhere close... |
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https://i.imgur.com/HfPzl6B.jpg View Quote It used to be at an angle at the bottom, now it's more or less square. |
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I'm far from an expert, but it will take a whole lot of rocks to hold that water back. View Quote They wouldn't be there to hold the water back. They would be placed below the spillover for the e-spillway to dissipate the energy of the water coming over in the hopes of reducing the effects of erosion. |
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Which still means that it would take 150 hours, or 6.25 days, to lower the water level to the target of 850'. Also, like I stated on the last page, today's forecast calls for mid- to upper 60's temperatures which will lead to an increased inflow which will slow down the reduction of water storage. Yesterday and the day before seemed like relatively nice, dry days and the inflows were around 55k/cfs - I don't think it's unreasonable to expect similar numbers throughout the day today. I don't think that they will be able to continue to 100k/cfs when the rain starts coming in; I don't think the Feather River will be able to handle the outflow and the run-off at the same time. View Quote No other choice. As you state they are not going to be able to get the storage capacity in time. When the rains come, they are either going to have to increase to well over 100K, or risk the emergency spillway again in which case the combined flow will still be over 100K. Reducing flows to protect the down stream feather river is no longer an option for this week and next week. |
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I suspect they are trying to throttle the outflow so they don't flood everything downstream more than they have to. I bet that as they see the stability of the upper part of the spillway, they will realise they can increase the flow considerably if/when it becomes necessary again. View Quote Yep The gates have the capability of 250Kcfs. Opening them to that level would cause flooding downstream worst than if the dam wasn't even there at this point. So they will throttle the gates in an attempt to control the flooding and make sure the lake doesn't overfill again. I bet they about had a stroke when they realized the implications of that water flowing down the hill off of the parking lot. |
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The news guy on KRCR just said they would like to get the lake level 50 ft. below the top of the e-spillway to reduce the pressure on it.
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I believe they had it at 36,000cfs before having to shut it down. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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What is the flow rate through the power house, IF all the generators were running? I believe they had it at 36,000cfs before having to shut it down. Max capacity is less than half of that. Installed Capacity 819 mVA, 16,950 cfs Normal Static Head 410-676 feet Design Dynamic Head: 615 feet Number of Units 6 (3 g, 3 p/g) Unit Size: 3 @ 132 mVA, 2,800 cfs 3 @ 141 mVA , 2,850 cfs Penstock/Diameter 2 @ 22 feet |
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