Trumps path(s) to win! - Page 3

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Trumps path(s) to win! (Page 3 of 3)

Posted: 10/26/2016 3:03:16 PM EDT

[#1]

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You missed two states there, chief.

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I know a lot of guys like to hate on RCP, but looking at their 2016 primary calls, I don't think they did too bad. Of the 100 primary results, they made calls in 55 states, 6 times they called the wrong winner for the state. That leaves them at about 89% accuracy at calling states.

You missed two states there, chief.

Lol, I should have explained that better. Of 100 elections they made calls in 55 of them. The other 45 they didn't make a call. So 50 states with one Republican and one Democratic primary each.

Posted: 10/26/2016 3:09:17 PM EDT

[#2]

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File this in the FWIW department.

A friend of mine behind enemy lines in MASSACHUSETTS says that there is an unprecedented number of Trump signs that just seemed to show up over the past couple of days.

MA will probably go blue when it is over and done with but the number of signs in a state like that is probably a very good sign.

Again, FWIW.

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There's a shitload of Trump signs around here. Hillary will win NY by 20+ points anyway.

Posted: 10/26/2016 3:11:01 PM EDT

[#3]

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10mm,

I dont believe that crap.

I believe Michigan is going for Trump.

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I'd say "from your lips to God's ears" but I'm sure you've been praying over this plenty.

Posted: 10/26/2016 3:12:44 PM EDT

[#4]

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Minneapolis / St. Paul

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Why is Minnesota a Blue state?

Minneapolis / St. Paul

See also MN DFL.

Reagan couldn't even win it in 1980 or 1984

Posted: 10/26/2016 3:23:13 PM EDT

[#7]

... the question is.. does he have a path not based in delusion..

Posted: 10/26/2016 3:33:10 PM EDT

[#8]

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... the question is.. does he have a path not based in delusion..

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Honestly, I see his chances as about 15%, in line with the election betting odds. To get the 262 map I had to assume an across the board 4% skew in polling numbers, not a good sign.

Posted: 10/26/2016 3:35:38 PM EDT

[#9]

Don't worry boys! Guac-Bowl will win this! Slow and Steady!

Posted: 10/26/2016 4:55:39 PM EDT

[#10]

Posted: 10/26/2016 5:03:26 PM EDT

[#11]

So, good news today. RCP has moved PA into tossups and 538 only has it at +6.6H. If Trump flips PA I do believe he would have this wrapped up.

Posted: 11/3/2016 4:12:39 PM EDT

[#12]

It's amazing how much can change in a few weeks. This FBI news has really upped my optimism. Even CNN is posting ways Trump can win.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/donald-trump-path-to-270-scenarios/index.html

I don't think all of their paths are viable, but it's a much tighter race than I expected a few weeks ago.

Posted: 11/3/2016 4:31:31 PM EDT

[#13]

This is what I think is a lock for Trump, it looks very likely he will get 1 out of Maine and NH will flip.

The fact that Virgina, Colorado, and Pennsylvania are in play just makes me even more hopeful

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Trumps path(s) to win! (Page 3 of 3)

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