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Posted: 9/25/2016 9:59:20 AM EDT
Does anyone actually believe this? I get this b.s. thrown up in arguments on illegal immigrants and southern border security all the time. You would have to be blind to think this is true despite what these cooked up studies say.

Anyone have any data that is not supplied by the Fed or shows the holes in the methodology in the way the data is acquired?
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:10:30 AM EDT
[#1]
A quick Google search comes up with the Migration Policy Institute saying that 51 million non-immigrants were admitted on visas in 2011.  Do you believe that none of them overstayed?  If some did, what percentage?  How many illegal aliens do you believe are here, and what do you base that on?  I am sensing a lot of "feels" in your position.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:10:38 AM EDT
[#2]
Is that the same left that tells us there is a net outflow of illegals (i.e. more leaving the states for Mexico rather than coming into the states)?

And why a wall is therefore stupid:  it will only keep them in.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:13:07 AM EDT
[#3]
A few years ago NPR was pushing over 60% of illegals
had graduate degrees
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:15:53 AM EDT
[#4]
Nearly anyone can enter on a visa. If you visit disney land you're on a visa, even if it's an esta waiver.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:18:17 AM EDT
[#5]
You would be surprised at the mount of self deport / overstays we run into on the border.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:20:05 AM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Nearly anyone can enter on a visa. If you visit disney land you're on a visa, even if it's an esta waiver.
View Quote


This is true, the bureaucrats at the consulate are not always very good at vetting people.

Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:20:57 AM EDT
[#7]
Nope.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:29:13 AM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


This is true, the bureaucrats at the consulate are not always very good at vetting people.

View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Nearly anyone can enter on a visa. If you visit disney land you're on a visa, even if it's an esta waiver.


This is true, the bureaucrats at the consulate are not always very good at vetting people.



Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:29:30 AM EDT
[#9]

What difference, at this point, does it make?

Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:45:23 AM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
A quick Google search comes up with the Migration Policy Institute saying that 51 million non-immigrants were admitted on visas in 2011.  Do you believe that none of them overstayed?  If some did, what percentage?  How many illegal aliens do you believe are here, and what do you base that on?  I am sensing a lot of "feels" in your position.
View Quote

Yes there is "feels" in my position. But I have also worked law enforcement, spent time around the southern border,  talked to border agents, and seen all of the photos members who live near the border post of illegals at their watering troughs.

So yes I feel like the data is bullshit and no I don't typically trust much data on hot bed topics provided from government funded sources.


ETA: however if the fellow above is a Border Patrol Agent and he says they see mostly visa overstayed then maybe my "feels" is wrong.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 10:56:53 AM EDT
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Yes there is "feels" in my position. But I have also worked law enforcement, spent time around the southern border,  talked to border agents, and seen all of the photos members who live near the border post of illegals at their watering troughs.

So yes I feel like the data is bullshit and no I don't typically trust much data on hot bed topics provided from government funded sources.


ETA: however if the fellow above is a Border Patrol Agent and he says they see mostly visa overstayed then maybe my "feels" is wrong.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
A quick Google search comes up with the Migration Policy Institute saying that 51 million non-immigrants were admitted on visas in 2011.  Do you believe that none of them overstayed?  If some did, what percentage?  How many illegal aliens do you believe are here, and what do you base that on?  I am sensing a lot of "feels" in your position.

Yes there is "feels" in my position. But I have also worked law enforcement, spent time around the southern border,  talked to border agents, and seen all of the photos members who live near the border post of illegals at their watering troughs.

So yes I feel like the data is bullshit and no I don't typically trust much data on hot bed topics provided from government funded sources.


ETA: however if the fellow above is a Border Patrol Agent and he says they see mostly visa overstayed then maybe my "feels" is wrong.


Well, Jeffery Passel is famous for his work with the American Community Survey in determining the illegal alien population, and the Pew Research Center uses his method.  I think those numbers are bullshit, and that if they have ever been right it was coincidental.  No one can take either position (majority border crossers or majority overstays) with authority.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 11:02:40 AM EDT
[#12]
I know this won't be a popular opinion, but there are very few real illegal immigrants. Our government passes out green cards and visas like candy (won't enforce what the paper work says, students, agriculture, etc.) and foreign governments have been in the business of making multiple I.D.'s for their citizens to stay in the U.S. So far Mexico and China have been caught doing this. These people still don't belong here.
 
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 11:35:03 AM EDT
[#13]
Irish people that overstay their tourist visas are much less visible than Mexicans who illegally cross the southern border. Really, I don't know anyone who's complaining about too many Irish migrants.

There are all sorts of ways to beat the immigration system. Sham marriages and adoptions. Sailors jumping ship in American ports. "Tourists" that overstay. Trump's wall will not address any of these.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 11:39:35 AM EDT
[#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Irish people that overstay their tourist visas are much less visible than Mexicans who illegally cross the southern border. Really, I don't know anyone who's complaining about too many Irish migrants.

There are all sorts of ways to beat the immigration system. Sham marriages and adoptions. Sailors jumping ship in American ports. "Tourists" that overstay. Trump's wall will not address any of these.
View Quote

Agreed it won't address those issues. But that doesn't mean tighter border security is worthless either. You don't let one issue go just because there are others.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 12:20:19 PM EDT
[#15]
we need to deport those fuckin Irish...bomb throwers the lot of em...

and the Swedes? them and their fuckin fish....and...that lousy fuckin furniture store...

and the French bastards, frog eating, cheese fuckin, hairy legged woman lovin surrender monkeys, the bunch of em..throw em out..


and those Limey pukes..send them all back to londonistan or chesterwhatthefuckshire


and don't get me started on those borsht swillin dancing bears, the Rooskies...
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 12:29:44 PM EDT
[#16]
I could believe it.

I've met a lot more more people, personally, that have over stayed visas than have jumped the border.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 12:31:55 PM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Agreed it won't address those issues. But that doesn't mean tighter border security is worthless either. You don't let one issue go just because there are others.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Irish people that overstay their tourist visas are much less visible than Mexicans who illegally cross the southern border. Really, I don't know anyone who's complaining about too many Irish migrants.

There are all sorts of ways to beat the immigration system. Sham marriages and adoptions. Sailors jumping ship in American ports. "Tourists" that overstay. Trump's wall will not address any of these.

Agreed it won't address those issues. But that doesn't mean tighter border security is worthless either. You don't let one issue go just because there are others.



our borders, including our ports are fuckin swiss cheese.,,unless you close them all down and actually start enforcing our laws
border control on the southern border is a joke.. we have to close all borders, starting with the southern one. shutting down the northern one follows, there are check points in NY and Vt with NO ONE on them. It will probably more use of drones, ground sensors, and roving patrols in open areas more than a fence or wall. Then, the real challenge is the ports, not a singe shipping container should be allowed to leave a port until its opened and inspected or x-rayed. I am shocked a nuke hasn't been delivered to a Walmart in Kansas City. This of course has to include the ICE, DEA, Justice, Border Patrol, US Marshalls, aka BIGBROTHER, doing its job on shame marriages, tracking down VISA overstays and deporting them and NEVER giving them another one, and every Central/South American, Mexican, Middle Eastern, Chinese or SWEDE who is picked up is sent home in chains..

Link Posted: 9/25/2016 12:32:46 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I could believe it.

I've met a lot more more people, personally, that have over stayed visas than have jumped the border.
View Quote


still "Border jumpers" and should be treated as such.


Link Posted: 9/25/2016 12:37:24 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Yes there is "feels" in my position. But I have also worked law enforcement, spent time around the southern border,  talked to border agents, and seen all of the photos members who live near the border post of illegals at their watering troughs.

So yes I feel like the data is bullshit and no I don't typically trust much data on hot bed topics provided from government funded sources.


ETA: however if the fellow above is a Border Patrol Agent and he says they see mostly visa overstayed then maybe my "feels" is wrong.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
A quick Google search comes up with the Migration Policy Institute saying that 51 million non-immigrants were admitted on visas in 2011.  Do you believe that none of them overstayed?  If some did, what percentage?  How many illegal aliens do you believe are here, and what do you base that on?  I am sensing a lot of "feels" in your position.

Yes there is "feels" in my position. But I have also worked law enforcement, spent time around the southern border,  talked to border agents, and seen all of the photos members who live near the border post of illegals at their watering troughs.

So yes I feel like the data is bullshit and no I don't typically trust much data on hot bed topics provided from government funded sources.


ETA: however if the fellow above is a Border Patrol Agent and he says they see mostly visa overstayed then maybe my "feels" is wrong.

The typical old school Mexican illegals aren't coming as much anymore.  The typical "Mexican" that crosses now is an OTM from Central America.  If he is a Mexican, he's probably an Indian from Chiapas or Oaxaca.  The economy is picking up, so they might be staying, but two years ago, the outflow to Sonora or Jalisco or the DF was probably greater than the inflo.

Also...  The birthrate for Mexico is way down and crashing.  The main place Mexicans still have big families is in the US.  That will alleviate the Mex issue on its own.

You want to worry about Illegals look to India, and Central America.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 12:37:40 PM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
Does anyone actually believe this? I get this b.s. thrown up in arguments on illegal immigrants and southern border security all the time. You would have to be blind to think this is true despite what these cooked up studies say.

Anyone have any data that is not supplied by the Fed or shows the holes in the methodology in the way the data is acquired?
View Quote



Allow be to be a break in your sympathy train.

1) We don't have a good/ viable exit program like MOST developed or non developed countries.
2) Our INA is written and other policy and laws that if we encounter an overstay on their way out, just to let them go (for lack of argument).
3) We have changed the law to accommodate overstays, IE if they are from X, they are not really and overstay until they hit 180 day BEYOND the expiration of their I94.

Overstay's are a HUGE fucking problem, and USCIS allows them to re-adjust their status in the states and even issues them cards to make admissible if they leave.

We have no good exit system, none. Canada doesn't share info with us and we don't exit stamp/ swipe everyone leaving as we do they arriving (legally).


Link Posted: 9/25/2016 12:43:20 PM EDT
[#21]
Yes, once they overstay the visa they become illegals.
Similar to once someone commits a crime they become a criminal.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 1:20:42 PM EDT
[#22]
I know an ICE guy who has sent criminal aliens back to Philippines, Turkey, Japan, India, Jamaica, Bolivia, Korea, Armenia

Not all are border jumpers, there are a lot of overstays. People claiming student visas that overstay when school is done.

getting a green card is not that easy anymore, has to be sponsored, unless you hit the immigration "lottery".
worker visas are easier.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 1:21:58 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I know an ICE guy who has sent criminal aliens back to Philippines, Turkey, Japan, India, Jamaica, Bolivia, Korea, Armenia

Not all are border jumpers, there are a lot of overstays, and people claiming student visas.

getting a green card is not that easy anymore, has to be sponsored.
worker visas are easier.
View Quote


Today, nothing could be further than the truth.

Link Posted: 9/25/2016 1:28:27 PM EDT
[#24]
Bullshit.  MedVed needs to shut up
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 1:32:42 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Allow be to be a break in your sympathy train.

1) We don't have a good/ viable exit program like MOST developed or non developed countries.
2) Our INA is written and other policy and laws that if we encounter an overstay on their way out, just to let them go (for lack of argument).
3) We have changed the law to accommodate overstays, IE if they are from X, they are not really and overstay until they hit 180 day BEYOND the expiration of their I94.

Overstay's are a HUGE fucking problem, and USCIS allows them to re-adjust their status in the states and even issues them cards to make admissible if they leave.

We have no good exit system, none. Canada doesn't share info with us and we don't exit stamp/ swipe everyone leaving as we do they arriving (legally).


View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Does anyone actually believe this? I get this b.s. thrown up in arguments on illegal immigrants and southern border security all the time. You would have to be blind to think this is true despite what these cooked up studies say.

Anyone have any data that is not supplied by the Fed or shows the holes in the methodology in the way the data is acquired?



Allow be to be a break in your sympathy train.

1) We don't have a good/ viable exit program like MOST developed or non developed countries.
2) Our INA is written and other policy and laws that if we encounter an overstay on their way out, just to let them go (for lack of argument).
3) We have changed the law to accommodate overstays, IE if they are from X, they are not really and overstay until they hit 180 day BEYOND the expiration of their I94.

Overstay's are a HUGE fucking problem, and USCIS allows them to re-adjust their status in the states and even issues them cards to make admissible if they leave.

We have no good exit system, none. Canada doesn't share info with us and we don't exit stamp/ swipe everyone leaving as we do they arriving (legally).



Sympathy? I don't have any of that. We should deport all illegals regardless of how they are here.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 1:37:33 PM EDT
[#26]
Deport all of them never to return. We also need to stop all immigration into the US. We have 97 million not fully employed and until they are all fully employed we should not bring anyone else into our country.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 1:37:49 PM EDT
[#27]
We should know how many Canadians over/stay, many, no, don't ask me how I know.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 1:45:55 PM EDT
[#28]
i'm sure that they all know that there's no penalty for staying.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 2:24:31 PM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Deport all of them never to return. We also need to stop all immigration into the US. We have 97 million not fully employed and until they are all fully employed we should not bring anyone else into our country.
View Quote


Second sentence is incorrectly broad.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 2:40:56 PM EDT
[#30]
I met a guy that came over from Germany for 6 monthes to see the West Coast of the U.S. He was a master tool and die maker. He bought a BMW bike and rented a room in someone's house for his stay. He met a friend of mine that had a tool and die shop. This guy made the hard work look easy. He screwed up, worked on a tourist visa and over stayed his visa. He was doing the work no one else could do, and made good money doing it like north of $150,000 a year. Kind of screwed it up for him to become a U.S. Citizen.

But at least he wasn't out driving drunk, raping girls, or dealing drugs. He also spoke English and didn't want to make the U.S. into Germany.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 3:31:25 PM EDT
[#31]
I'm  just a guy in Tx who feels like he's the one that's been deported.......

There are large areas and industries that no longer speak English or have any affiliation with the soon to be former greatest nation.  Yeah overstays happen, but they don't come in groups of 50.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 11:14:48 PM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I'm  just a guy in Tx who feels like he's the one that's been deported.......

There are large areas and industries that no longer speak English or have any affiliation with the soon to be former greatest nation.  Yeah overstays happen, but they don't come in groups of 50.
View Quote


I assume the guys with visas don't sneak across the border.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 11:16:47 PM EDT
[#33]
Go to a place like New York City. You'll find plenty of illegals working construction and bar jobs. Some of them do very well. They're not the guys you find outside of Home Depot in the morning.
Link Posted: 9/25/2016 11:27:44 PM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
i'm sure that they all know that there's no penalty for staying.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
i'm sure that they all know that there's no penalty for staying.


This is what it is in theory anyway:

There are three levels of penalties for overstaying a U.S. visa and accruing unlawful presence that can end with you being banned from the U.S. for a period of time -- or permanently.  

-If you accrue unlawful presence of more than 180 continuous days but less than one year, but you leave before any official, formal removal procedures (i.e. deportation) are instituted against you, you will be barred from reentering the United States for a period of three years.

-If you accrue unlawful presence of more than 365 continuous days, then leave prior to any deportation or other formal procedures being instituted against you, you will be subsequently barred from reentering the United States for a period of ten years.

-If you accrue unlawful presence of more than one year total (in the aggregate, not necessarily continuous), or are ordered removed (deported) from the U.S., and subsequently attempt to enter without inspection (for example, attempt to sneak across the border), then you will be permanently barred from the U.S., with no waiver available except to VAWA self-petitioners. (After ten years, however, you can request special permission to apply for a U.S. visa or green card.)

Link Posted: 9/25/2016 11:31:19 PM EDT
[#35]
The Gov't has no idea how many illegals really came across the border therefore they have no idea what the ratio is.
Remember this is the same Gov't who tells us that unemployment is less then 5%.
Link Posted: 9/26/2016 4:17:20 AM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Yes there is "feels" in my position. But I have also worked law enforcement, spent time around the southern border,  talked to border agents, and seen all of the photos members who live near the border post of illegals at their watering troughs.

So yes I feel like the data is bullshit and no I don't typically trust much data on hot bed topics provided from government funded sources.


ETA: however if the fellow above is a Border Patrol Agent and he says they see mostly visa overstayed then maybe my "feels" is wrong.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
A quick Google search comes up with the Migration Policy Institute saying that 51 million non-immigrants were admitted on visas in 2011.  Do you believe that none of them overstayed?  If some did, what percentage?  How many illegal aliens do you believe are here, and what do you base that on?  I am sensing a lot of "feels" in your position.

Yes there is "feels" in my position. But I have also worked law enforcement, spent time around the southern border,  talked to border agents, and seen all of the photos members who live near the border post of illegals at their watering troughs.

So yes I feel like the data is bullshit and no I don't typically trust much data on hot bed topics provided from government funded sources.


ETA: however if the fellow above is a Border Patrol Agent and he says they see mostly visa overstayed then maybe my "feels" is wrong.


Customs, and from what I have seen it's around 50/50.
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