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Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:05:45 AM EDT
[#1]
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There are many here that are dying for HRC to win.

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some people would rather be right on the internet than right for their country.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:08:51 AM EDT
[#2]
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It's partly a post-convention bounce, but if things are going well, that's what is supposed to happen. Romney got no bounce from the 2012 convention.

More importantly, Trump was improving in the head-to-head matchup with The Harridan as the convention began; Romney and McCain both trailed by significant margins at the same point in their races.
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Polls are worthless
Post convention bounce.


It's partly a post-convention bounce, but if things are going well, that's what is supposed to happen. Romney got no bounce from the 2012 convention.

More importantly, Trump was improving in the head-to-head matchup with The Harridan as the convention began; Romney and McCain both trailed by significant margins at the same point in their races.

When you add the fact that Trump has not been running any adds that I have seen and Hitlery has been spending money on adds like Bill Clinton in a whore house, things might be closer than they think they will.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:09:52 AM EDT
[#3]
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Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.
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Although national polls can be good indicators, a lot of states are going to go one way or another, and because of the electoral college the margins don't matter.  

Swing state polls are far better indicators.  I suspect the number of states up for grabs in this election may be higher than usual though.  


Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.


The fact that MI and PA are in play for Trump is very telling.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:11:29 AM EDT
[#4]
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Pretty standard post convention bump. Although he's within 5 pointsish anyway
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Don't worry when Hillary gets her bump they'll tell us that polls don't matter again.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:11:40 AM EDT
[#5]

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Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.
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Quoted:

Although national polls can be good indicators, a lot of states are going to go one way or another, and because of the electoral college the margins don't matter.  



Swing state polls are far better indicators.  I suspect the number of states up for grabs in this election may be higher than usual though.  





Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.




 
I agree, that's what I meant with higher than usual number of states up for grabs. But there is still going to be a core of states on both sides, where percentages are irrelevant.  I think Trump will win, but it isn't going to be Reagan Mondale.  
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:12:06 AM EDT
[#6]
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It's almost like you want Trump to falter.

What, are you hoping for a FHRC bump out of her convention? I hope she falls flat on her face.

BTW....Trump's favorable rating went way up beyond what a normal convention bump would get him.
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Pretty standard post convention bump. Although he's within 5 pointsish anyway


It's almost like you want Trump to falter.

What, are you hoping for a FHRC bump out of her convention? I hope she falls flat on her face.

BTW....Trump's favorable rating went way up beyond what a normal convention bump would get him.


He does, he is one of Hillary's most vocal supporters on this site.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:15:58 AM EDT
[#7]
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The fact that MI and PA are in play for Trump is very telling.
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Although national polls can be good indicators, a lot of states are going to go one way or another, and because of the electoral college the margins don't matter.  

Swing state polls are far better indicators.  I suspect the number of states up for grabs in this election may be higher than usual though.  


Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.


The fact that MI and PA are in play for Trump is very telling.


It looking like (at this point in the process) that Trump has more paths to win than McCain and Romney ever did.

Keep in mind that has been done on what amounts to a shoestring campaign budget.

FHRC spent over 100 million in a month on ads and she is behind.


Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:16:08 AM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:16:52 AM EDT
[#9]
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The rust belt is his strength.  ohio, pennsylvania, Michigan.  

Virginia is Hillary's firewall.  Which is why she picked jackass.  NOVA HATES trump.  he is going to decimate the bureaucratic class.
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Although national polls can be good indicators, a lot of states are going to go one way or another, and because of the electoral college the margins don't matter.  

Swing state polls are far better indicators.  I suspect the number of states up for grabs in this election may be higher than usual though.  


Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.


The rust belt is his strength.  ohio, pennsylvania, Michigan.  

Virginia is Hillary's firewall.  Which is why she picked jackass.  NOVA HATES trump.  he is going to decimate the bureaucratic class.

it's cool tho, I fucking hate nova right back
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:18:41 AM EDT
[#10]
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Quoted:


The rust belt is his strength.  ohio, pennsylvania, Michigan.  

Virginia is Hillary's firewall.  Which is why she picked jackass.  NOVA HATES trump.  he is going to decimate the bureaucratic class.
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Although national polls can be good indicators, a lot of states are going to go one way or another, and because of the electoral college the margins don't matter.  

Swing state polls are far better indicators.  I suspect the number of states up for grabs in this election may be higher than usual though.  


Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.


The rust belt is his strength.  ohio, pennsylvania, Michigan.  

Virginia is Hillary's firewall.  Which is why she picked jackass.  NOVA HATES trump.  he is going to decimate the bureaucratic class.


I'm glad she picked Kaine.  Minority turnout will be back to 2004 levels.  They aren't going to turn out in record numbers to vote for two pasty old white politicians.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:19:19 AM EDT
[#11]
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some people would rather be right on the internet than right for their country.
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There are many here that are dying for HRC to win.



some people would rather be right on the internet than right for their country.


Exactly
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:21:09 AM EDT
[#12]
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:22:26 AM EDT
[#13]
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Don't be shy about making stuff up, last week I was falsely accused of posting that I would vote for Hillary and posting that I voted against Reagan  
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Pretty standard post convention bump. Although he's within 5 pointsish anyway


It's almost like you want Trump to falter.

What, are you hoping for a FHRC bump out of her convention? I hope she falls flat on her face.

BTW....Trump's favorable rating went way up beyond what a normal convention bump would get him.
Don't be shy about making stuff up, last week I was falsely accused of posting that I would vote for Hillary and posting that I voted against Reagan  

hail satan
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:23:32 AM EDT
[#14]
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:24:20 AM EDT
[#15]

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  I would make a friendly wager that Hillary gets little to no post convention bump.  

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Pretty standard post convention bump. Although he's within 5 pointsish anyway


  I would make a friendly wager that Hillary gets little to no post convention bump.  





 
As the Wikileaks emails continue to trickle out, I think her numbers will slide quite a bit after the convention.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:25:23 AM EDT
[#16]
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:25:59 AM EDT
[#17]
Yeah let me know when the dems don't have CA and NY locked up.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:29:02 AM EDT
[#18]

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I think the Wikileaks DNC email leak will be more damaging than most expect. I doubt it will bring Sanders supporters to Trump's side but I do expect enough will stay home on election day.
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We don't necessarily need Sanders supporters to vote Trump.  We need them to vote 3rd party or write-in Bernie.




I personally know a Sanders supporter who, after the leak, refuses to vote for Clinton.  Before the evidence of rigging, she said "I hate Clinton but I'll vote against Trump."




I've been prodding her with texts about how Bernie got screwed... that's what we need to focus on.  Don't try to get them to vote for Trump because they'll push back.  Just keep hammering the fact that the election was rigged and they fucked Bernie over.  Talk about the Green Party as an option.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:34:29 AM EDT
[#19]
It's hard to believe that any man will still vote for the Hildebeast after watching her sure-to-be screeching acceptance speech this week.  She will try to be forceful and strong and will sound like your mother in law screaming while simultaneously scratching her fingernails across a chalkboard (for you youngsters, a "chalkboard" is something schools used back when they actually taught you something).

I see no convention bounce for the Beast.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:35:36 AM EDT
[#20]
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  We don't necessarily need Sanders supporters to vote Trump.  We need them to vote 3rd party or write-in Bernie.


I personally know a Sanders supporter who, after the leak, refuses to vote for Clinton.  Before the evidence of rigging, she said "I hate Clinton but I'll vote against Trump."


I've been prodding her with texts about how Bernie got screwed... that's what we need to focus on.  Don't try to get them to vote for Trump because they'll push back.  Just keep hammering the fact that the election was rigged and they fucked Bernie over.  Talk about the Green Party as an option.
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I think the Wikileaks DNC email leak will be more damaging than most expect. I doubt it will bring Sanders supporters to Trump's side but I do expect enough will stay home on election day.

  We don't necessarily need Sanders supporters to vote Trump.  We need them to vote 3rd party or write-in Bernie.


I personally know a Sanders supporter who, after the leak, refuses to vote for Clinton.  Before the evidence of rigging, she said "I hate Clinton but I'll vote against Trump."


I've been prodding her with texts about how Bernie got screwed... that's what we need to focus on.  Don't try to get them to vote for Trump because they'll push back.  Just keep hammering the fact that the election was rigged and they fucked Bernie over.  Talk about the Green Party as an option.

That's a good idea.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:36:50 AM EDT
[#21]
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Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (hyphenated last name, her husband must be a real beta ) just booed off the stage at DNC.  

I'm not sure Hillary will get any bounce after this clusterfuck of a convention is over.
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Good.   I hope their whole party fractures and this effects downstream races for House and Senate.

Fuck them and fuck the nevertrumpers for not uniting to crush Hillary.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:37:22 AM EDT
[#22]
The Democrats are getting ready for an all-out media blitz with their convention.  They're going to go heavy on the entertainment and promising free shit so look for Cankles to get a bit of a bounce.  She's a nasty piece of work and if Trump can call her out and make her look like a raging bitch she will continue to slide in the polls.  There's a razor's edge for a female politician between being seen as "strong" and as a first class raging bitch.  He needs to push her over that line and keep her there for a couple of weeks.  



I think that's his strategy.  He's proven he can troll harder than what most politicians are accustomed to seeing.  
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:41:54 AM EDT
[#23]
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:45:25 AM EDT
[#24]
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  We don't necessarily need Sanders supporters to vote Trump.  We need them to vote 3rd party or write-in Bernie.


I personally know a Sanders supporter who, after the leak, refuses to vote for Clinton.  Before the evidence of rigging, she said "I hate Clinton but I'll vote against Trump."


I've been prodding her with texts about how Bernie got screwed... that's what we need to focus on.  Don't try to get them to vote for Trump because they'll push back.  Just keep hammering the fact that the election was rigged and they fucked Bernie over.  Talk about the Green Party as an option.
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I think the Wikileaks DNC email leak will be more damaging than most expect. I doubt it will bring Sanders supporters to Trump's side but I do expect enough will stay home on election day.

  We don't necessarily need Sanders supporters to vote Trump.  We need them to vote 3rd party or write-in Bernie.


I personally know a Sanders supporter who, after the leak, refuses to vote for Clinton.  Before the evidence of rigging, she said "I hate Clinton but I'll vote against Trump."


I've been prodding her with texts about how Bernie got screwed... that's what we need to focus on.  Don't try to get them to vote for Trump because they'll push back.  Just keep hammering the fact that the election was rigged and they fucked Bernie over.  Talk about the Green Party as an option.


That's the better option. Get them to vote a protest vote for someone else.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:49:07 AM EDT
[#25]
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Don't be shy about making stuff up, last week I was falsely accused of posting that I would vote for Hillary and posting that I voted against Reagan    

I'm waiting for the photo of me next to Lee Harvey Oswald
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Pretty standard post convention bump. Although he's within 5 pointsish anyway


It's almost like you want Trump to falter.

What, are you hoping for a FHRC bump out of her convention? I hope she falls flat on her face.

BTW....Trump's favorable rating went way up beyond what a normal convention bump would get him.
Don't be shy about making stuff up, last week I was falsely accused of posting that I would vote for Hillary and posting that I voted against Reagan    

I'm waiting for the photo of me next to Lee Harvey Oswald


Do you have a picture of you NOT next to Oswald at the time of the shooting???

I rest my case.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:49:44 AM EDT
[#26]
40 states suckas
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:51:56 AM EDT
[#27]
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But, but, but...Hillary will trounce him in the general election! He's an unelectable fool!
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LOL.

Check that poll again in a week.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:56:48 AM EDT
[#28]
excellent.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 10:57:39 AM EDT
[#29]
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I'm glad she picked Kaine.  Minority turnout will be back to 2004 levels.  They aren't going to turn out in record numbers to vote for two pasty old white politicians.
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Although national polls can be good indicators, a lot of states are going to go one way or another, and because of the electoral college the margins don't matter.  

Swing state polls are far better indicators.  I suspect the number of states up for grabs in this election may be higher than usual though.  


Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.


The rust belt is his strength.  ohio, pennsylvania, Michigan.  

Virginia is Hillary's firewall.  Which is why she picked jackass.  NOVA HATES trump.  he is going to decimate the bureaucratic class.


I'm glad she picked Kaine.  Minority turnout will be back to 2004 levels.  They aren't going to turn out in record numbers to vote for two pasty old white politicians.


They had him saying "faith, family, and work" in Spanish on the stage this weekend.  
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:04:19 AM EDT
[#30]
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Quoted:
Don't be shy about making stuff up, last week I was falsely accused of posting that I would vote for Hillary and posting that I voted against Reagan    

I'm waiting for the photo of me next to Lee Harvey Oswald
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Pretty standard post convention bump. Although he's within 5 pointsish anyway


It's almost like you want Trump to falter.

What, are you hoping for a FHRC bump out of her convention? I hope she falls flat on her face.

BTW....Trump's favorable rating went way up beyond what a normal convention bump would get him.
Don't be shy about making stuff up, last week I was falsely accused of posting that I would vote for Hillary and posting that I voted against Reagan    

I'm waiting for the photo of me next to Lee Harvey Oswald





Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:06:25 AM EDT
[#31]
Even liberal Nate Silver of 538 admits Trump would win if the election were held today:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757558402667188224



Although to keep his lefty readers happy he quickly "adjusts" out the Trump bump in the next tweet and says don't worry, Hillary is still ahead.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:07:27 AM EDT
[#32]
Even the much hated and reviled Libtard Michael Moore said he thinks Trump will be the next Prez.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:09:40 AM EDT
[#33]

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Yeah let me know when the dems don't have CA and NY locked up.



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The Dems can have NY and CA, and MA, VT, WA, OR, NJ, and MD, for good measure.



They still won't win if they can't take FL, PA, OH, WI, or MI.  And current polls show Trump is ahead in 3 of those 5, and coming close in the other two.



 
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:10:18 AM EDT
[#34]


TRUMP 2016
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:17:34 AM EDT
[#35]

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LOL.



Check that poll again in a week.
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But, but, but...Hillary will trounce him in the general election! He's an unelectable fool!




LOL.



Check that poll again in a week.


True, Hillary may get a post-convention bounce, but after the Wikileaks e-mails it's not a guarantee.  Nor is it a guarantee that Sanderistas will come back to the Democrats, like most pollsters are assuming.



The point is, people have been saying "Trump can't win" since last summer and he has been consistently proving them wrong since then.



(For the record, I was one of those people; last year I didn't think Trump would pull in more than 10% of the Republican vote and Cruz would pull away during the primaries.)



Trump has spent a pittance on advertising so far and he is still beating Hillary.  That is terrifying to the Democrats and the Media because it means their advantage in setting the tone for the campaign is worthless this year.



Trump CAN win, and simply assuming that a candidate as flawed and disliked as Hillary will come back is a huge stretch in this election year.



 
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:21:37 AM EDT
[#36]
I think the high level Dems know that people are fed up with Obama's BS and they didn't want to put their A candidate up for slaughter this cycle.  That's why they allowed Hildabeast with all her baggage to get the nom.

If Obama hadn't been the first black prez there is no way in hell he would have gotten a second term with the economy the way it was at the time.  I think people were afraid to vote out the first black prez.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:24:13 AM EDT
[#37]
Despite my disdain for Trump and despite what some of you mouth breathers think I am glad to see it. That said with with all the gafs the Dems have made we should be trouncing the Dems at this point, not squeaking ahead. If he can quit attacking fellow republicans and go after Hillary from this point forward he might actually win...
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:25:36 AM EDT
[#38]

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I think the high level Dems know that people are fed up with Obama's BS and they didn't want to put their A candidate up for slaughter this cycle.  That's why they allowed Hildabeast with all her baggage to get the nom.



If Obama hadn't been the first black prez there is no way in hell he would have gotten a second term with the economy the way it was at the time.  I think people were afraid to vote out the first black prez.
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It didn't help that Romney had neutralized the biggest issue of the 2012 election -- ObamaCare -- by signing MassCare into law when he was governor.  He lost all credibility on that issue before the election even started.



 
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:32:37 AM EDT
[#39]
The dems are in trouble. I don't believe Hillary will get a bump after the convention, and in fact , I think there will be a drop. This Wasserman crap, and the Bernie fallout, is going to really, really hurt her. Had this happened two months ago, or had it happened two months from now, no big deal. The fact that it is happening now, takes away all the positive momentum that normally comes with a celebration of a candidate's crowning. Instead of being able to rally the masses, they are going to have to go into cover their ass mode, and make major changes in staff, and this will have legs afterwards as well. She has taken a major hit already with independents and the left wing of the party over it, and, every time she speaks , she will drop further.

Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:47:57 AM EDT
[#40]
I think the emails that leaked today are pretty hurtful to Hillary's campaign. Particularly since she just hired DWS. Berners hate DWS and will not vote for Clinton just because DWS is working for her. Actually, some of this is probably going to play out mid-convention.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 11:49:11 AM EDT
[#41]
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But, but, but...Hillary will trounce him in the general election! He's an unelectable fool!
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But, but, but... Polls mean nothing. Or so the Trump camp told us.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 12:06:30 PM EDT
[#42]
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But, but, but... Polls mean nothing. Or so the Trump camp told us.
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But, but, but...Hillary will trounce him in the general election! He's an unelectable fool!


But, but, but... Polls mean nothing. Or so the Trump camp told us.


You are a desperate little man.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 12:57:03 PM EDT
[#43]

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But, but, but... Polls mean nothing. Or so the Trump camp told us.
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Quoted:

But, but, but...Hillary will trounce him in the general election! He's an unelectable fool!




But, but, but... Polls mean nothing. Or so the Trump camp told us.




 
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 3:00:05 PM EDT
[#44]
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They had him saying "faith, family, and work" in Spanish on the stage this weekend.  
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Although national polls can be good indicators, a lot of states are going to go one way or another, and because of the electoral college the margins don't matter.  

Swing state polls are far better indicators.  I suspect the number of states up for grabs in this election may be higher than usual though.  


Trump is going to win, and he's going to convert a number of states that were dependably blue.


The rust belt is his strength.  ohio, pennsylvania, Michigan.  

Virginia is Hillary's firewall.  Which is why she picked jackass.  NOVA HATES trump.  he is going to decimate the bureaucratic class.


I'm glad she picked Kaine.  Minority turnout will be back to 2004 levels.  They aren't going to turn out in record numbers to vote for two pasty old white politicians.


They had him saying "faith, family, and work" in Spanish on the stage this weekend.  


The Hispanics who came here legally love Trump.  Nothing pisses them off more than seeing people "jump line" and come here illegally.

Look at how much of the Hispanic vote Trump received in the Nevada primary..  Remarkable, really, considering he was running against both Cruz and Rubio.

Hillary would have been better off focusing on the black vote.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 5:42:38 PM EDT
[#45]
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You are a desperate little man.
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But, but, but...Hillary will trounce him in the general election! He's an unelectable fool!


But, but, but... Polls mean nothing. Or so the Trump camp told us.


You are a desperate little man.


How do you figure? I'm voting for Trump. I'm just pointing out all of the hypocrisy of his sycophants.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 5:53:32 PM EDT
[#46]
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Good.   I hope their whole party fractures and this effects downstream races for House and Senate.

Fuck them and fuck the nevertrumpers for not uniting to crush Hillary.
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Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (hyphenated last name, her husband must be a real beta ) just booed off the stage at DNC.  

I'm not sure Hillary will get any bounce after this clusterfuck of a convention is over.







Good.   I hope their whole party fractures and this effects downstream races for House and Senate.

Fuck them and fuck the nevertrumpers for not uniting to crush Hillary.


Clinton was already fucking over down ticket dems by funneling state donations to her own war chest to get around donation limits. This is just going to make November that much worse for down ticket democrats. Hillary could end up giving us a super majority in both houses.
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 6:21:30 PM EDT
[#47]
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How do you figure? I'm voting for Trump. I'm just pointing out all of the hypocrisy of his sycophants.
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But, but, but...Hillary will trounce him in the general election! He's an unelectable fool!


But, but, but... Polls mean nothing. Or so the Trump camp told us.


You are a desperate little man.


How do you figure? I'm voting for Trump. I'm just pointing out all of the hypocrisy of his sycophants.

the last time I posted "polls mean nothing" or any derivative thereof was march, back when they didn't matter

I can't speak for all trump supporters, but most similar sentiments I saw were from a similar time period
Link Posted: 7/25/2016 6:39:53 PM EDT
[#48]
It's good to see him ahead.  With all of the email leaks perhaps he can stay there.
Link Posted: 7/26/2016 10:17:58 AM EDT
[#49]
Bump
Link Posted: 7/26/2016 11:02:49 AM EDT
[#50]

Right now there are millions of voters who have not chosen a candidate.
Many of them have not paid any attention to politics yet and probably won't do so until September.

The reality is that those voters are the people who determine the outcome of most presidential elections.

Until they begin to make up their minds, the contested state polls may tell us something about the current state of the contest, but aren't particularly useful in predicting the outcome.
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