User Panel
Posted: 9/2/2015 6:46:18 AM EDT
For the fourth month in a row, FBI NICS checks have set a new monthly record. I know it is not a direct correlation to actual gun sales,
but rather a strong indicator. I will be doing my part to continue the trend. America might be waking up. |
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NICS checks and gun sales actually have negative correlation. That is, as NICS checks increase, gun sales decrease.
That's the only thing that makes sense anyway since I've read several times this year from various sources that fewer and fewer Americans own guns every year. |
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The data alone doesn't really tell enough of the story. Is it a handful buying a shit ton or that many individuals? Just as much, some statistics are absurd when people say there are 150 million gun owners when a good chunk of the population are little kids.
It sounds good though. |
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Salad days + upcomming elections where GOP establishment still wants to elect a democrat + continued rhetoric about gun control...
But good on people for taking advantage of pre-panic prices and inventory |
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I keep hearing that gun sales have declined precipitously but sales are "booming" at the gunshop/range the I frequent 2-3 times each week.
Guns are flying out the door. |
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Strange. I'm an FFL and my August was nothing spectacular. In fact, it seemed like gun sales were down a bit. That said, summers are always a bit slow and this summer seemed a little less slow than I remember.
Anyway, I didn't set any records this August. Maybe I suck at selling guns. |
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Quoted: Strange. I'm an FFL and my August was nothing spectacular. In fact, it seemed like gun sales were down a bit. That said, summers are always a bit slow and this summer seemed a little less slow than I remember. Anyway, I didn't set any records this August. Maybe I suck at selling guns. View Quote +1 I haven't sold an AR in 8 weeks or so |
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I suppose it's possible that I sold more guns (ran more checks) this August than last August, but I haven't actually run the numbers to see. Certainly this summer has been better than three years ago when we couldn't get guns to sell.
Overall, though, I'd say gun sales are slowing. The fervent demand for guns that we saw the past couple of years seems to have subsided. I think a lot of folks have what they want/need. |
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Bought 2 in as many months with no NICS checks......
Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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If just 10% of NICS checks equal new gunowners, that is roughly 1 million new gunowners per year for the last 15 years. 15 MILLION new owners.
I wonder what the real statistical correlation is, but I would hope 10% new is conservative. |
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And don't forget the CWP holders that they don't run a check on.
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If just 10% of NICS checks equal new gunowners, that is roughly 1 million new gunowners per year for the last 15 years. 15 MILLION new owners. I wonder what the real statistical correlation is, but I would hope 10% new is conservative. View Quote Most of the people at my club who "collect guns" don't even hit the NICS system when they buy guns since they all have CHPs. |
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+1 I haven't sold an AR in 8 weeks or so View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Strange. I'm an FFL and my August was nothing spectacular. In fact, it seemed like gun sales were down a bit. That said, summers are always a bit slow and this summer seemed a little less slow than I remember. Anyway, I didn't set any records this August. Maybe I suck at selling guns. +1 I haven't sold an AR in 8 weeks or so How much are you charging for a colt 6920? I would imagine it's pretty hard right now to compete with online the dealers let alone Walmarts fire sale. I paid $799 a few months ago and feel like I should have waited if only I had known. |
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Most of the people at my club who "collect guns" don't even hit the NICS system when they buy guns since they all have CHPs. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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If just 10% of NICS checks equal new gunowners, that is roughly 1 million new gunowners per year for the last 15 years. 15 MILLION new owners. I wonder what the real statistical correlation is, but I would hope 10% new is conservative. Most of the people at my club who "collect guns" don't even hit the NICS system when they buy guns since they all have CHPs. If I'm not mistaken, I believe that some of those carry permit-instead of NICS states are the reason the NICS checks numbers are so high. Again, I'm not 100 percent certain, but I think I read that in some states where' carry permit to substitute for a NICS check, the state has to rerun the permit holders NICS check on some sort of regular basis. In other words, the checks are getting done on permit holders whether they buy a gun. I'm not sure if that's going on in your state, but that's why some of the state figure are off the charts. My state (Missouri) is not one where a permit substitutes for a NICS check so everybody who gets a gun from an FFL has to have a NICS, regardless of whether they have a carry permit. ETA: Here's a chart of NICS checks by state and by month . . . https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year_by_state.pdf FWIW, Fatmax's state of North Caroline is right in line with Missouri. His state doesn't require NICS checks for permit holders, while mine does. The real crazy numbers come from Kentucky. Those can't all be gun sales. They have to be they system rerunning people's checks routinely. |
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Quoted: How much are you charging for a colt 6920? I would imagine it's pretty hard right now to compete with online the dealers let alone Walmarts fire sale. I paid $799 a few months ago and feel like I should have waited if only I had known. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Strange. I'm an FFL and my August was nothing spectacular. In fact, it seemed like gun sales were down a bit. That said, summers are always a bit slow and this summer seemed a little less slow than I remember. Anyway, I didn't set any records this August. Maybe I suck at selling guns. +1 I haven't sold an AR in 8 weeks or so How much are you charging for a colt 6920? I would imagine it's pretty hard right now to compete with online the dealers let alone Walmarts fire sale. I paid $799 a few months ago and feel like I should have waited if only I had known. ...and that's why we don't stock Colts, last one I sold was a new Armalite for $650 |
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makes me smile whenever gun sales peak. Been happening a lot since Obunggrabber took office.
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OP... ? Wat ? You gave us BS info ? Are you talking about all Backround checks or FFL related checks.
Huge difference. I just had a check done last week for something that has nothing to do with firearms and will generate another 2-3 checks before the end of the year. |
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...and that's why we don't stock Colts, last one I sold was a new Armalite for $650 View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Strange. I'm an FFL and my August was nothing spectacular. In fact, it seemed like gun sales were down a bit. That said, summers are always a bit slow and this summer seemed a little less slow than I remember. Anyway, I didn't set any records this August. Maybe I suck at selling guns. +1 I haven't sold an AR in 8 weeks or so How much are you charging for a colt 6920? I would imagine it's pretty hard right now to compete with online the dealers let alone Walmarts fire sale. I paid $799 a few months ago and feel like I should have waited if only I had known. ...and that's why we don't stock Colts, last one I sold was a new Armalite for $650 I'm just a little small-town pawn shop. I've tried stocking new long guns but have largely stopped because the competition is so fierce. You tie up way too much money for far too little profit. I still stock a fair number of new handguns since those turn relatively fast. New AR's? Fuck that. Sell a $700 gun and make $50-$70. No thanks. I'll stick to lower receivers, parts kits and accessories. |
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makes me smile whenever gun sales peak. Been happening a lot since Obunggrabber took office. View Quote Take a look at this chart. It appears that gun sales tried to peak about a year ago. They seem to be picking back up, though. https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf |
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I haven't sold an AR in 8 weeks or so View Quote ARs sell pretty well for me. I sell lower end stuff like M&P Sports and Oracles. My customer base doesn't really request higher end stuff but they do upgrade components on the lower end guns. I can't reall afford to stock higher end stuff, and, even if I could I am not sure it would increase profit. |
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The real crazy numbers come from Kentucky. Those can't all be gun sales. They have to be they system rerunning people's checks routinely. View Quote I don't have the info in front of me know but it seems like the 2012 or 2013 NICS data showed Kentucky as being really higher, along with California. I couldn't really put my finger on why Kentucky's numbers were so high but you may have cracked the code for me. |
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I don't have the info in front of me know but it seems like the 2012 or 2013 NICS data showed Kentucky as being really higher, along with California. I couldn't really put my finger on why Kentucky's numbers were so high but you may have cracked the code for me. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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The real crazy numbers come from Kentucky. Those can't all be gun sales. They have to be they system rerunning people's checks routinely. I don't have the info in front of me know but it seems like the 2012 or 2013 NICS data showed Kentucky as being really higher, along with California. I couldn't really put my finger on why Kentucky's numbers were so high but you may have cracked the code for me. So far this year, Missouri (a gun friendly state similar in size to Kentucky) has run 350,000 NICS checks. Your state of Louisiana has run 200,000. So far this year Kentucky has run TWO MILLION NICS checks. Those aren't all gun buyers. I guarantee you that. They must be running a check on every permit holder each month. It's about the only plausible explanation. No other state is close (California is up to a million and Texas is close behind). https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year_by_state.pdf |
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Quoted: What handguns sell the best for you? My top seller is the Taurus PT111 G2, followed by CCW guns like the LCP and the G43. I feel lucky if I make 10% on long guns. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I still stock a fair number of new handguns since those turn relatively fast. What handguns sell the best for you? My top seller is the Taurus PT111 G2, followed by CCW guns like the LCP and the G43. I feel lucky if I make 10% on long guns. I make $50 on handguns and $100 on rifles under $1K over $1K I try to make $150 - $200. I sell a lot of G19s, G43s and blue label Glocks and Sigs in various sizes/calibers. |
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So far this year, Missouri (a gun friendly state similar in size to Kentucky) has run 350,000 NICS checks. Your state of Louisiana has run 200,000. So far this year Kentucky has run TWO MILLION NICS checks. Those aren't all gun buyers. I guarantee you that. They must be running a check on every permit holder each month. It's about the only plausible explanation. No other state is close (California is up to a million). View Quote That would still be a lot of permit holders, something like 135,000 using some quick math. Are they that many permit holders in KY? |
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What handguns sell the best for you? My top seller is the Taurus PT111 G2, followed by CCW guns like the LCP and the G43. I feel lucky if I make 10% on long guns. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I still stock a fair number of new handguns since those turn relatively fast. What handguns sell the best for you? My top seller is the Taurus PT111 G2, followed by CCW guns like the LCP and the G43. I feel lucky if I make 10% on long guns. I have refused to stock Taurus ever since they left me hanging with overpriced guns when they dropped their wholesale cost on some models (plus, the potential for fucked up guns is too great). Obviously, I sell a lot of Hi-Points. Rugers (LCP, LC9 and SRC models) sell well. So do Shields and Kel-Tec PF9s. Glocks are pretty reliable sellers. Right now, I'm pushing Ruger . . . gotta to earn those 4r points, you know . . . |
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That would still be a lot of permit holders, something like 135,000 using some quick math. Are they that many permit holders in KY? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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So far this year, Missouri (a gun friendly state similar in size to Kentucky) has run 350,000 NICS checks. Your state of Louisiana has run 200,000. So far this year Kentucky has run TWO MILLION NICS checks. Those aren't all gun buyers. I guarantee you that. They must be running a check on every permit holder each month. It's about the only plausible explanation. No other state is close (California is up to a million). That would still be a lot of permit holders, something like 135,000 using some quick math. Are they that many permit holders in KY? Maybe they're using NICS for some other purpose. ETA: . . . Or, maybe they're running them every month: https://www.ar15.com/archive/topic.html?b=8&f=27&t=479298 |
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I thought the gun companies were all going bust because of the big panic over the last two years? Market saturated etc.......
I knew that was HORSESHIT. Locally people are STILL buying and stacking shit away like there is no tomorrow. Hell, local pawn shop that sells black guns is now selling Storage Food by the pallet! People are not buying the "everything is great" bullshit anymore...... |
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I wonder if any of it is due to Walmart closing and having killer sales?
Anyhow, it still means more net new firearms out there in circulation. You can't really buy a new firearm without a NICs check, so the fact that NICs checks are happening more often is a good thing - it means more new guns out there! Hopefully many of these guns are going into the hands of first timers. |
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So far this year, Missouri (a gun friendly state similar in size to Kentucky) has run 350,000 NICS checks. Your state of Louisiana has run 200,000. So far this year Kentucky has run TWO MILLION NICS checks. Those aren't all gun buyers. I guarantee you that. They must be running a check on every permit holder each month. It's about the only plausible explanation. No other state is close (California is up to a million and Texas is close behind). https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year_by_state.pdf View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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The real crazy numbers come from Kentucky. Those can't all be gun sales. They have to be they system rerunning people's checks routinely. I don't have the info in front of me know but it seems like the 2012 or 2013 NICS data showed Kentucky as being really higher, along with California. I couldn't really put my finger on why Kentucky's numbers were so high but you may have cracked the code for me. So far this year, Missouri (a gun friendly state similar in size to Kentucky) has run 350,000 NICS checks. Your state of Louisiana has run 200,000. So far this year Kentucky has run TWO MILLION NICS checks. Those aren't all gun buyers. I guarantee you that. They must be running a check on every permit holder each month. It's about the only plausible explanation. No other state is close (California is up to a million and Texas is close behind). https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year_by_state.pdf Hell yeah for KY! We're finally good at somthin'! GBB!!! |
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OP... ? Wat ? You gave us BS info ? Are you talking about all Backround checks or FFL related checks. Huge difference. I just had a check done last week for something that has nothing to do with firearms and will generate another 2-3 checks before the end of the year. View Quote According to the FBI NICS Facts Page, the numbers are for FFL checks. I know there is a huge difference, thanks for stating the obvious. |
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Hell yeah for KY! We're finally good at somthin'! GBB!!! View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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The real crazy numbers come from Kentucky. Those can't all be gun sales. They have to be they system rerunning people's checks routinely. I don't have the info in front of me know but it seems like the 2012 or 2013 NICS data showed Kentucky as being really higher, along with California. I couldn't really put my finger on why Kentucky's numbers were so high but you may have cracked the code for me. So far this year, Missouri (a gun friendly state similar in size to Kentucky) has run 350,000 NICS checks. Your state of Louisiana has run 200,000. So far this year Kentucky has run TWO MILLION NICS checks. Those aren't all gun buyers. I guarantee you that. They must be running a check on every permit holder each month. It's about the only plausible explanation. No other state is close (California is up to a million and Texas is close behind). https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year_by_state.pdf Hell yeah for KY! We're finally good at somthin'! GBB!!! Or . . . . they're keeping a closer eye on you guys than anybody else. |
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but yet, Wal Mart says the market is gone. View Quote I'd say the market for guns "purchased at Wal-Mart" is gone. Who do you know that bought a gun there before they put everything on clearance. I have been to more that one Wal-Mart where I could not imagine the sales clerk calling in a 4473 and getting everything right. |
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