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Posted: 8/3/2015 12:02:27 AM EDT
Hawking, Musk warn of ‘inevitable’ AI arms race

"If any major military moves ahead with developing artificial intelligence weapons, a global arms race of robotic killing machines is virtually inevitable, according to an open letter that Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and hundreds of other robotics researchers signed.....more at link

FLI - Future of Life Institute conference on A.I. (good pdf's from presentation) ....link


I don't think we should fear it, but fear it or not, there is no stopping it.  I think the biggest impact will be on human labor.  One of the speakers gave us a 30% chance of super-intelligent A.I. by 2030, and 50% by 2040.  

What say you?

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:04:16 AM EDT
[#1]
First time a machine tells me how it's gonna be- it's going to turn into spare parts.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:05:48 AM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
First time a machine tells me how it's gonna be- it's going to turn into spare parts.
View Quote


Good luck with that.

We've got machines that can shoot down rockets and mortars in mid air.

How fast is your draw?
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:08:18 AM EDT
[#3]
but how would you know... in this day and age imagine what a machine could do.

It could easily if it can hack do almost anything, hire people to work for it by text email and phone with a voice program. Order parts and almost anything online, hack banks, control the media or elections....

The only limiting factors on one that can hack would be if it can do basic research, or know enough to fund and control those who do. Past that... control the world
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:11:09 AM EDT
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Good luck with that.

We've got machines that can shoot down rockets and mortars in mid air.

How fast is your draw?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
First time a machine tells me how it's gonna be- it's going to turn into spare parts.


Good luck with that.

We've got machines that can shoot down rockets and mortars in mid air.

How fast is your draw?



phhh it will send a drug enforcement team with a warrant after you...

or swat team....

or drop a 777 on your house...
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:14:31 AM EDT
[#5]
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:15:03 AM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
Hawking, Musk warn of ‘inevitable’ AI arms race

"If any major military moves ahead with developing artificial intelligence weapons, a global arms race of robotic killing machines is virtually inevitable, according to an open letter that Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and hundreds of other robotics researchers signed.....more at link

FLI - Future of Life Institute conference on A.I. (good pdf's from presentation) ....link


I don't think we should fear it, but fear it or not, there is no stopping it.  I think the biggest impact will be on human labor.  One of the speakers gave us a 30% chance of super-intelligent A.I. by 2030, and 50% by 2040.  

What say you?

View Quote


I don't disagree with them.

But Pandora's box and all that.  It will come in due time.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:15:34 AM EDT
[#7]
Is there something MUSH and HAWKINS know that we commoners dont ? Failed experiment or something seen in action that spooked them ?
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:15:58 AM EDT
[#8]
Even the most intelligent human beings are so limited, so unable to process information, and so unable to put enough pieces together, that it is amazing we have progressed this far.

To be able to take the next step and really advance, we need machine intelligence to make it happen.

That said,  I think a lot of people confuse AI (Strong AGI)  for VI (Virtual Intelligence).  Everything we have now, and probably for the next few decades are VIs, not AIs.  Virtual Intelligence are simply computing tools that can communicate verbally and/or visually with humans in a more natural way, while using computing power to answer questions, research, and perform tasks.  Siri, Cortana, Hound, Watson, etc, are all VIs.  Kept in that capacity, we should strive to perfect these tools.

Where AI comes into play is when a VI has the capacity to self communicate and explore ideas and concepts on it's own.  The trick to making that happen is to give a strong VI a counterpart strong VI that will act like a human internal monologue, and set it have a conversation with itself.  With that simple ability, VI becomes AI, able to think.  That is where the trouble might start.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:19:20 AM EDT
[#9]
Come with me if you want to live.



If you're reading this, you are The Resistance.  
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:19:27 AM EDT
[#10]
Technology has turned us into soft,lazy wimps. Technology ain't your friend.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:21:09 AM EDT
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Good luck with that.

We've got machines that can shoot down rockets and mortars in mid air.

How fast is your draw?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
First time a machine tells me how it's gonna be- it's going to turn into spare parts.


Good luck with that.

We've got machines that can shoot down rockets and mortars in mid air.

How fast is your draw?



Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:22:05 AM EDT
[#12]
The founding fathers gave us the second amendment because of AI.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:22:20 AM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
but how would you know... in this day and age imagine what a machine could do.

It could easily if it can hack do almost anything, hire people to work for it by text email and phone with a voice program. Order parts and almost anything online, hack banks, control the media or elections....

The only limiting factors on one that can hack would be if it can do basic research, or know enough to fund and control those who do. Past that... control the world
View Quote


That's an interesting thought.

Smart systems like Watson or Google's DeepMind will replace a lot of people long before they'll be considered true A.I.  We really don't have to achieve A.I. before things get very interesting.  Ironically, I think a lot of "white collar" jobs and professions are at risk in this next wave.  Not the physical labor jobs.  We need better robotics before we can replace the trades.  
 
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:22:43 AM EDT
[#14]
It worked fine for Chappie
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:23:39 AM EDT
[#15]
AI + nanotechnology + genetic engineering = scary future

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:23:58 AM EDT
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Even the most intelligent human beings are so limited, so unable to process information, and so unable to put enough pieces together, that it is amazing we have progressed this far.

To be able to take the next step and really advance, we need machine intelligence to make it happen.

That said,  I think a lot of people confuse AI (Strong AGI)  for VI (Virtual Intelligence).  Everything we have now, and probably for the next few decades are VIs, not AIs.  Virtual Intelligence are simply computing tools that can communicate verbally and/or visually with humans in a more natural way, while using computing power to answer questions, research, and perform tasks.  Siri, Cortana, Hound, Watson, etc, are all VIs.  Kept in that capacity, we should strive to perfect these tools.

Where AI comes into play is when a VI has the capacity to self communicate and explore ideas and concepts on it's own.  The trick to making that happen is to give a strong VI a counterpart strong VI that will act like a human internal monologue, and set it have a conversation with itself.  With that simple ability, VI becomes AI, able to think.  That is where the trouble might start.
View Quote


Exactly!

Most people are still debating what type of intelligence computer will have.  There is a great philosophical story about the man in the room.  
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:25:20 AM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Technology has turned us into soft,lazy wimps. Technology ain't your friend.
View Quote


Yes, we were much better off before the microchip.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:26:59 AM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Good luck with that.

We've got machines that can shoot down rockets and mortars in mid air.

How fast is your draw?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
First time a machine tells me how it's gonna be- it's going to turn into spare parts.


Good luck with that.

We've got machines that can shoot down rockets and mortars in mid air.

How fast is your draw?


just hide for a month, it'll eventually lock up  and it's over.  

as fabulous as OSX is,  it locks up.  The most tested and error free software known to man, the NASA mars rover software, has glitches.


as soon as a machine can go a couple months without a charge, or locking up, I'll worry.

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:29:24 AM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


just hide for a month, it'll eventually lock up  and it's over.  

as fabulous as OSX is,  it locks up.  The most tested and error free software known to man, the NASA mars rover software, has glitches.


as soon as a machine can go a couple months without a charge, or locking up, I'll worry.

View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
First time a machine tells me how it's gonna be- it's going to turn into spare parts.


Good luck with that.

We've got machines that can shoot down rockets and mortars in mid air.

How fast is your draw?


just hide for a month, it'll eventually lock up  and it's over.  

as fabulous as OSX is,  it locks up.  The most tested and error free software known to man, the NASA mars rover software, has glitches.


as soon as a machine can go a couple months without a charge, or locking up, I'll worry.



or, it has a backup system that kicks in and resets the primary and its far from over.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:31:11 AM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Is there something MUSH and HAWKINS know that we commoners dont ? Failed experiment or something seen in action that spooked them ?
View Quote


The media is funny, it focuses on things.

Still, it is strange that they keep popping up with this discussion.  Watching DeepMind work really spooked a lot of people.  I think writing it's own block code is unsettling.  

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:34:29 AM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Yes, we were much better off before the microchip.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Technology has turned us into soft,lazy wimps. Technology ain't your friend.


Yes, we were much better off before the microchip.


Or fire, clothes, and pointy sticks. The invention and use of technology is part of the human psyche, but like all things human we can misuse it.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:35:07 AM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Is there something MUSH and HAWKINS know that we commoners dont ? Failed experiment or something seen in action that spooked them ?
View Quote


I think there's no doubt that those men have access to information that the rest of us don't. Failed experiments? How about successful experiments?

It's nice of them to try and warn us, I guess. Futile gesture. It's coming, no matter what.

They are all believers in the true genocide anyway.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:35:09 AM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Exactly!

Most people are still debating what type of intelligence computer will have.  There is a great philosophical story about the man in the room.  
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Even the most intelligent human beings are so limited, so unable to process information, and so unable to put enough pieces together, that it is amazing we have progressed this far.

To be able to take the next step and really advance, we need machine intelligence to make it happen.

That said,  I think a lot of people confuse AI (Strong AGI)  for VI (Virtual Intelligence).  Everything we have now, and probably for the next few decades are VIs, not AIs.  Virtual Intelligence are simply computing tools that can communicate verbally and/or visually with humans in a more natural way, while using computing power to answer questions, research, and perform tasks.  Siri, Cortana, Hound, Watson, etc, are all VIs.  Kept in that capacity, we should strive to perfect these tools.

Where AI comes into play is when a VI has the capacity to self communicate and explore ideas and concepts on it's own.  The trick to making that happen is to give a strong VI a counterpart strong VI that will act like a human internal monologue, and set it have a conversation with itself.  With that simple ability, VI becomes AI, able to think.  That is where the trouble might start.


Exactly!

Most people are still debating what type of intelligence computer will have.  There is a great philosophical story about the man in the room.  


I don't believe it can get very interesting before A.I. is on the scene.  V.I. systems can be disruptive enough.    
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:42:31 AM EDT
[#24]
"I'm sorry Dave, I'm  afraid I can't  do that."
Yeah..FTS!
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:42:34 AM EDT
[#25]
Imagine a whole flock of low, fast flying, maneuverable, and relatively small quadcopters swarming your position.  

Each carrying with it the ability to hunt, find, and lock onto individual soldiers, and make kill shots on the fly, or kamikaze into a position and blow up.  It would certainly change the dynamics of ground warfare.  

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:42:39 AM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Technology has turned us into soft,lazy wimps. Technology ain't your friend.
View Quote


Technology allows us to fight wars in ways we couldn't without it.  We'll need AI if we're going to fight the aliens.

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:44:28 AM EDT
[#27]
In for one of these .....




I'll have to change XCRmonger's sig. line below when that happens.  
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:44:36 AM EDT
[#28]
Hawking is about a billion times smarter than I will ever be. But may fuck still be upon him. Liberal, universal healthcare supporting piece of shit.

One things for sure, I will out survive him in any sort of apocalypse.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:45:51 AM EDT
[#29]
Funny thought, if we use AI for war machines; what if we program them with a warrior ethos? What if our terminator robots followed a code and therefore acted more honorably than humans could?







I want to read that scifi story, someone make it happen.




 
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:49:44 AM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Is there something MUSH and HAWKINS know that we commoners dont ? Failed experiment or something seen in action that spooked them ?
View Quote




Put a brain on it, some thermal and some blades on the legs and its Goodnight Irene.  

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:50:27 AM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Funny thought, if we use AI for war machines; what if we program them with a warrior ethos? What if our terminator robots followed a code and therefore acted more honorably than humans could?

I want to read that scifi story, someone make it happen.
 
View Quote


I think Asimov covered that. The three rules and all. Plus one.

That would preclude robots from harming humans though, generally speaking.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:55:54 AM EDT
[#32]
Hawking talks about a whole lot of shit that he doesn't really know anything about.

Hawking's background is theoretical physics... not machine learning, AI, computer science, or control systems.  Unfortunately the general public seems to think that being intelligent and an expert in one particular scientific discipline then makes you knowledgeable about anything even remotely scientific.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:57:25 AM EDT
[#33]

Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I think Asimov covered that. The three rules and all. Plus one.



That would preclude robots from harming humans though, generally speaking.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Quoted:

Funny thought, if we use AI for war machines; what if we program them with a warrior ethos? What if our terminator robots followed a code and therefore acted more honorably than humans could?



I want to read that scifi story, someone make it happen.

 




I think Asimov covered that. The three rules and all. Plus one.



That would preclude robots from harming humans though, generally speaking.




 
No, I'm saying I want a scifi story where AI robots are basically paladins. It would be the opposite story to Terminator.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:00:04 AM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Hawking talks about a whole lot of shit that he doesn't really know anything about.

Hawking's background is theoretical physics... not machine learning, AI, computer science, or control systems.  Unfortunately the general public seems to think that being intelligent and an expert in one particular scientific discipline then makes you knowledgeable about anything even remotely scientific.
View Quote


I agree with all of that.

However I also would imagine that he is not an uniformed idiot regarding things such as AI.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:00:51 AM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Hawking is about a billion times smarter than I will ever be. But may fuck still be upon him. Liberal, universal healthcare supporting piece of shit.

One things for sure, I will out survive him in any sort of apocalypse.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Hawking is about a billion times smarter than I will ever be. But may fuck still be upon him. Liberal, universal healthcare supporting piece of shit.

One things for sure, I will out survive him in any sort of apocalypse.

Quoted:
Hawking talks about a whole lot of shit that he doesn't really know anything about.

Hawking's background is theoretical physics... not machine learning, AI, computer science, or control systems.  Unfortunately the general public seems to think that being intelligent and an expert in one particular scientific discipline then makes you knowledgeable about anything even remotely scientific.


When people become educated in a certain field it tends to make them believe that they're specially equipped to solve problems in other fields. I've heard it referred to as engineer's syndrome.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:01:11 AM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


I agree with all of that.

However I also would imagine that he is not an uniformed idiot regarding things such as AI.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Hawking talks about a whole lot of shit that he doesn't really know anything about.

Hawking's background is theoretical physics... not machine learning, AI, computer science, or control systems.  Unfortunately the general public seems to think that being intelligent and an expert in one particular scientific discipline then makes you knowledgeable about anything even remotely scientific.


I agree with all of that.

However I also would imagine that he is not an uniformed idiot regarding things such as AI.

Glad you fixed your sig
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:04:59 AM EDT
[#37]
Quite a few researchers who actually know what they're talking about (instead of just functioning as PR directors for science funding) think that better-than-human AI is more than 100 years away: link

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:05:29 AM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Glad you fixed your sig
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Hawking talks about a whole lot of shit that he doesn't really know anything about.

Hawking's background is theoretical physics... not machine learning, AI, computer science, or control systems.  Unfortunately the general public seems to think that being intelligent and an expert in one particular scientific discipline then makes you knowledgeable about anything even remotely scientific.


I agree with all of that.

However I also would imagine that he is not an uniformed idiot regarding things such as AI.

Glad you fixed your sig


Thanks again for pointing it out to me.

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:13:24 AM EDT
[#39]
Caprica Six.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:13:58 AM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quite a few researchers who actually know what they're talking about (instead of just functioning as PR directors for science funding) think that better-than-human AI is more than 100 years away: link

View Quote


1-10 decades...

Personally, I don't think we have to have strong A.I. before things get interesting.  I think "smart systems" and networks are disruptive enough.  If it interacts with it's environment and people, and is capably of independent action, I don't really care if it contemplates poetry or not.  

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:21:24 AM EDT
[#41]
I'm not worried:

z
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:49:41 AM EDT
[#42]
I could hang out with  that blonde synth from Humans tv show  
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
First time a machine tells me how it's gonna be- it's going to turn into spare parts.
View Quote

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:51:56 AM EDT
[#43]
tinfoil
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:55:13 AM EDT
[#44]
We're engineering our own demise.

Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:59:18 AM EDT
[#45]
I've been saying it for years, time to start building man portable microwave weapons.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:59:30 AM EDT
[#46]
That's why I'm hoarding CLP........I'll rule the A.I. "junkies" when tin man needs a "fix".

....and have a whole crib of Cherry2000's
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 2:05:59 AM EDT
[#47]
Wait till someone invents a functional robot woman, who looks and feels close to human and will fuck as much as the "user" wants.  Arfcom fatties wont be lonely anymore.  Hopefully it will have a titanium frame so it isn't crushed by a 400+ lb small dicked dope smoking nerd.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 2:13:29 AM EDT
[#48]
But the Lord came down to see the city and the tower the people were building.  
The Lord said, “If as one people speaking the same language they have begun to do this,
then nothing they plan to do will be impossible for them.
Genesis 11
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 2:23:11 AM EDT
[#49]
have people not seen terminator enough times...
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 2:34:42 AM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
but how would you know... in this day and age imagine what a machine could do.

It could easily if it can hack do almost anything, hire people to work for it by text email and phone with a voice program. Order parts and almost anything online, hack banks, control the media or elections....

The only limiting factors on one that can hack would be if it can do basic research, or know enough to fund and control those who do. Past that... control the world
View Quote



Two words: Air gap.
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