But shouldn't you have guns in the safe instead? Cash can't spend itself sitting in that little darkroom you economy breaker you.

whats funny is you got poo poo'ed and they halted trading today due to a "glitch"

Thats funny I thought you were one, the way you told me I was definitely wrong on the topping out.

Post pictures of your yacht that you shorted the market at the top from.

Market will correct sometime. We all agree on that. Maybe it's this time, maybe it's not. No one knows, and no one can time it. I thought we had topped out around 15,000 and sold off some mutual funds, wish I hadn't done that.

Not me...people smarter than me get my money to do that on my behalf.

...but I can read a chart. I suspected you were wrong and...yep, you certainly were. Agreed?

Thumper

On page five I went short.

On page seven I stated "A close below 17635 would open up a test of 17164".

On page twelve I stated " This market topped out in March " and you told me I was wrong.

You stated it peaked in May, I said May " was a failed breakout on terrible volume"

So now I stand by my number of 17164 area as a support area. A break below 17164 it could catch some support around 17,075, if that fails we are looking at 16,100 area.

So how are you reading the chart?

Exactly.  And I listen to those folks when they offer advice, pay attention to what's going on, and try to make informed decisions.  Apparently those folks and all their years of experience mean something, since I keep having to write quarterly checks to the IRS.

Looking for value and "buying low" is just part of the "buy low, sell high" philosophy some would call the doctrine of common sense.

my $8/oz silver is the "pirate treasure" my kids play with... unfortunately, they don't play pirate anymore, so it has to be stored somewhere....

that's some detailed insight ya got there -- when their market is STILL UP about 70% over the past year.  

as DK-Prof says, lol.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/07/upshot/how-to-make-sense-of-chinas-plummeting-stock-market.html


ar-jedi

Hope all the market timers and day traders cleared their shorts yesterday at the close.

Today may be a good day to short as well.

It's already fading -- down 100+ from the opening gap.

We'll see what the afternoon action brings.

Damn market crashing up again

Its called a short squeeze, nothing more.

LOL.

The ENTIRE market suffered a short squeeze?

Still squeezing.

Sometimes no sarcastic comment seems adequate...

Does this mean we died?

Endless doomsday prattle is part of our souls' eternal punishment...

Rape the silver, salt the corpses, burn the harem.

I heard the market was up on optimistic news about Greece. When was it down?

Perhaps the stock market is like a huge pus volcano, and just a little more pressure will prompt a financial eruption!

Bigger than Krakatoa!

Mt St Helens!

Shit you mean we not only gotta get the timing right but now gotta get the right stock market...Sheeet.

No Guns? No Womenz?
You not so balanced investor after all.

Except that between 1929 and 1937 things weren't so good. eh?
And the Gold in the house was confiscated by the Federal Government! They'll probably add guns next time huh?
I think Sept 2008 scared some real powerful people.
But we grew back out of that hole pronto.
So to say these things can never happen is also as bad as predicting that they are always about to.
I for one learned the hard way in the Tulip Bulb Bubble and the South Seas Investment scam. Since then I have done better.
The main take away is that crashes rarely happen and if one is paying some attention to things one might be able to avoid any big crashes.

My tiny little Roth made about $200 today. Oh the horror. Much collapse.

ok, i'm confused now.  when exactly do i panic?

ar-jedi

Ready, steady, go!  Dollar cost averaging and diversification are boring.  Daytrading is so much more fun.

DJIA near 30-day and 365-day highs.

If OP short sold, he may have jumped off a bridge...

Crash!

Just a friendly reminder that so far, the top is still in.

With commodities markets signaling trouble ahead (deflation) and the Fed hellbent on raising rates headed into a deflationary environment...standby.

Word!

Day xxx,

I can't even remember how long it's been since the collapse. Wife and I had prime ribeye, butter poached shrimp, and a nice Barolo the other night.

Life is just awful...

LoL.   Cute.

Looks good for the smart money.

FYI

I appreciate you bumping this thread so I don't have to.

#smartasscommentscount

It's silly to become so emotionally invested in conjecture.  

People let their egos get in the way.  There is absolutely nothing "smart" about becoming emotionally invested in financial forecasts.  No one can see the future.  It's all just conjecture.  You'll never have all the data points.  You are playing in an amazingly complex and chaotic system.

The first thing you have to do when you make a living at financial analysis, or portfolio management, is that you are not your analysis.  Becoming emotionally invested in your analysis can blur your performance, it destroys your objectivity.  You will be wrong, and when you are wrong, you have to have the objectivity to examine the situation, and data points, as they are, and make adjustments.  You're hope is that you are slightly more right then you are wrong,  You're trying to tip the advantage ever so slightly in your favor, its the same principle that casinos use.  

Professional investing is an art, an art in which risk management is probably the most important element.    

With that said, there is data to support at least part of the OPs conjecture.  

Using point and figure technical analysis, we are indeed in an interesting time. Using this method the last time we were in an interesting time was way back at the end 2012, and the early months of 2013.  Between then and now, not much has happened.   So this charting method isn't really a very good predictor of short term trends.  It is best used as a gauge for longer term price movements.  

At the end of 2012 we were breaking down, so it was appropriate to employ defensive action and reduce risk, but by March of 2013 we had a clear bullish single, meaning risk was more acceptable again.  

In June of 2015 we entered this current "interesting time" which means now is the time to pay attention, take precautions, reduce risk.  Right now we are only modestly bullish. The truth is there is currently no real price price pattern for SPX, a fairly rare event in point and figure analysis.   So taking caution right now is completely appropriate.  

It looks like the charts could break down further, but as a technician we only read the data, and while predicting what data points may come, is fun, that's all it is.  A good technician doesn't invest based on what he thinks the data may look like tomorrow, or next week, or next year.  

He reads what's going on right now and acts accordingly.  

A good analogy is this is a technician invests like a person drives a car.  He pays attention to his guages, and what he sees.  He doesn't assume that the road is going to suddenly end, or that a tornado is going strike, but he reads the road and conditions, and adjusts his driving to what he sees.    

It's very egoic to make grand predictions about the future.  It's fun!  Hell, I do it.  Being right, feels so damn good. But a smart person knows it's only conjecture. The available data is incomplete.  So you should never feel too good about being right, or too bad about about being wrong.  Your goal should be to remain objective.  ...or as objective as is humanly possible.  

TLDR:  When it comes to the financial markets, believe me when I say humility is a virtue.


     

Riveting tale, Queevox, but...

People who tell you the world is going to end next Tuesday should expect ridicule next Wednesday. When they follow up with "well, the world is going to end sometime in the next six months, then", they deserve still more ridicule. Of course something will happen someday in the indeterminate future, that's a pretty safe bet, but sound investing is all about making hay while the sun shines and hunkering down when times are tough.  Every facet of life involves some degree of risk, and we all must choose what level is acceptable to us, but if the lunatic fringe wants to crow from the rooftops, they can't get butthurt when they get mocked.

Did someone actually say that in this thread?  If so, please provide a citation. kthxbye.

"It wan't raining when Noah built the ark."

He's making a comparison, and an apt one. End of the world doomers are exactly the same as end of the financial world doomers.  Both are full of shit about every single prediction.

lol.

http://www.people.hbs.edu/ptufano/bbenefits_Nov2004.pdf


that's just 1 of N.

ar-jedi