Quoted:


"approximately" meaning the numbers are "guessed", not "compiled".

But, if blacks are less than 15% of the population, but one-third of the people shot, that doesn't speak well for OP's argument that there isn't anything racial about it.

Quoted:
Come on!



Black people are arrested, convicted, and incarcerated in a disproportionately high number.  That's a fact.



As I see it for your argument to be valid, you have to be disputing the legality of this phenomena.  You must be questioning whether or not this fact occurs because of racism, or police specifically targeting black ethnic groups.  That's a good conversation to have.  One I don't happen to agree with, but let's have it.  



Criminals taken as group (white, black, hispanic, asian, pacific islander, native american, etc included) blacks are disproportionately arrested, convicted, and incarcerated.  But out of that same group of criminals whites are disproportionately killed.  



If you want to have a conversation regarding why blacks seemingly commit a disproportionate number of crimes, then by all means let's have it.  



The last thing I want to see happen at the local LEO "shift meeting" is a discussion about needing to increase interdictions with white people because they're behind on their quota.  



"BOYS, shake em down hard, try to get em to run, or fight back...we need to up our white count"

Quoted:


"approximately" meaning the numbers are "guessed", not "compiled".

But, if blacks are less than 15% of the population, but one-third of the people shot, that doesn't speak well for OP's argument that there isn't anything racial about it.

Quoted:

  You are assuming that the rate at which a certain group is killed is correlated to the rate at which they commit crimes. There is NO evidence that is true. What is true is that blacks are convicted of more crimes per-capita than whites. I suspect that blacks are killed by police at a higher per-capita rate than whites. However, I have no idea how those two ratios are related.


Let me give a simple hypothetical.


Assume that the City of Middle America has 10 million people in it. Out of those 10 million, 1 million are black and 9 million are white (lets keep it simple and assume that Middle America only has whites and blacks).


1 in 100 blacks are arrested and convicted of a crime every year (or 10,000 blacks).
1 in 500 whites are arrested and convicted of a crime every year (or 18,000 whites).
This means that while there are more white criminals, the number of black criminals is disproportionately higher (by a factor of five).


Now, if at the end of the year, the police had killed 10 blacks and 12 whites, the chance of a black criminal being killed was 1-in-1000, while the chance of a white criminal was 1-in-1500. This means that your chances of being l killed as a black criminal is higher 50% than the chances of being killed as a white criminal.


The chances of being killed by the police as a black person (criminal or non-criminal) (1 in 100,000) is even more disproportionate than the chance of being killed as a white person (criminal or non-criminal) (1 in 750,000).


All this despite the fact that there are more whites killed than blacks. Clearly being a black criminal is more dangerous than being a white criminal.


There are two issues. (1) that blacks commit more crimes and (2) that the police kill a higher proportion of black criminals than white criminals.


The problem is we do not know what proportion of blacks are killed by the police compared to whites in the real world.


And that makes this discussion rather hypothetical because your premise that the raw number of blacks killed by police is allegedly less than the number or whites killed by police is just an exercise in statistical twaddle.

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Then what are the rioters motivated by?  Their feelings?  If they're not motivated by "statistical twaddle" then what?  





How does this happen?
http://static.prisonpolicy.org/images/raceinc.jpg

http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus10.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus10.pdf</a>



I'm not arguing for our laws.  I'm not even making an argument against the idea that blacks are unfairly targeted. But if they're rates of incarceration or so much higher then any other race isn't it reasonable to assume there MIGHT be a correlation to police encounters?  And if they're running into police in greater numbers isn't it reasonable to assume they might be shot more often?



2.2% of the black population is doing time.

0.0038% of the white population is doing time

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So, the only numbers we can find are compiled by some web site?  

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So fbi.gov statistics aren't good enough?

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Then what are the rioters motivated by?  Their feelings?  If they're not motivated by "statistical twaddle" then what?  


How does this happen?



http://static.prisonpolicy.org/images/raceinc.jpg
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus10.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus10.pdf</a>

I'm not arguing for our laws.  I'm not even making an argument against the idea that blacks are unfairly targeted.  But if they're rates of incarceration or so much higher then any other race isn't it reasonable to assume there MIGHT be a correlation to police encounters?  And if they're running into police in greater numbers isn't it reasonable to assume they might be shot more often?

2.2% of the black population is doing time.
0.0038% of the white population is doing time

Quoted:

  You seem to be intentionally ignoring my point.


Are blacks more likely to be killed by the police or the be the victim of excessive force than whites in comparison to the rate in which they are incarcerated?

If the answer to that question is yes, then maybe blacks are being disproportionately targeted by police, even after consideration that blacks commit more crimes.


You keep wanting to point out that blacks commit more crimes than whites, and then use that as the sole and logical conclusion that more blacks will be killed by the police than whites. That is only the first part of the analysis. You need to then compare the crime rates with the rate at which blacks are killed by the police compared to whites. If that rate is even higher than the crime rate, maybe black protesters have a legitimate issue.


If the point of all of this is just use this discussion as an excuse to talk about how blacks commit more crimes, then this discussion does not have any future.

Quoted:




You can get a lot of statistics from the FBI's website.  Or you can look at the NACJD website, it slices and dices a lot of crime statistics.  Also the CATO institute keeps a lot of data.  

Where are you getting 85%?   Non-hispanic whites don't make up 85% of the population.

Also, it's a mistake to look at the total population.  You have to look just at the criminal population.  A higher percentage of the black population commits crime.  That's just a fact.  

If you want to have a conversation about whether or not that's true, that's ANOTHER conversation.  Not this one.  

This one is about whether or not blacks who commit crimes are disproportionately killed by police.    The facts clearly illustrate that is simply not true.  The only thing that supports that impression is YouTube, Livelink, and the media in general, and it's a false impression.  

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I understand and pretty much agree with you.

In the other thread there was an article linked to that apparently took that into account and it showed whites are ratably killed by LEO's more often.

But I have NO IDEA if the raw numbers in that article were correct.

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In my experience with years of paying attention to such things, that word isn't even in their lexicon.

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If you are just looking at the CRIMINAL POPULATION, not the general population.  White CRIMINALS are ever so slightly, more likely to be shot and or killed by cops.  If you look at it total numbers more white CRIMINALS are shot and or killed by police.  

Again people need to to stop looking at the population as a whole, and consider just the subset CRIMINAL population.  

Good lord, if this thing keeps going we'll have police forces measuring and tracking their "enforcement" along ethnic lines.  We'll have departments saying they have too many interdictions involving blacks, and making the decision they need to go out and find some "white" crime.  

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I love the mantra of we need more black police officers and these issues will be solved.

So if the black population is currently running a 75% high school drop out rate and 50% criminal conviction rate. Hard to get qualified candidates with those numbers.