User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:16:44 PM EDT
I'm going to go ahead and call it. I've been posting this in various other threads, but I'll put it all in one thread here for you doomers and gloomers to stare at.
The Stock market crash will occur starting between the end of 2015 and the end of 2016. The extent will be at least 40-50%* from top to bottom. *Except if the FED goes crazy and starts QE^(super duper infinity). 
Investors are enjoying one of the longest bull markets since the 1940s Looking at P/E of S&P500 historically, a P/E of 20 is actually near the top, notwithstanding the 2000 and 2008 astronomical spikes. 
Shiller PE is at the top 
Also, we are seeing MACD Divergence and RSI > 70 just like in 2000 and 2008. 
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/305158/both-buffett-indicator-and-shiller-pe-continue-to-imply-long-term-negative-market-returns-2015-market-valuation Investor margin is at an all-time high 
Similar graphs about margin/credit: 
The Q-Ratio Each of these high points in the Q ratio — in 1905, 1929, 1936, 1968, 2000 and 2007 — was followed in short order by stock market losses. The peak-to-valley (or the loss from the high price to the low price) subsequent to each high point was 19 percent, 85 percent, 36 percent, 29 percent, 44 percent, and 50 percent, respectively. (Note that the chart below is of Q-ratio relative to the historical average. So 1.0 on the chart is actually about .7 Q-ratio) 
http://www.universa.net/UniversaSpitznagel_research_20110613.pdf ? At current valuations (Q ˜ 1.04)—and if this 110-year relationship continues—there is an expected (median) drawdown of 20%, and a 20% chance of a larger than 40% correction in the S&P500 within the next few years; these probabilities continually reset as valuations remain elevated, making an eventual deep drawdown from current levels highly likely. His prediction in the June 2011 whitepaper came true and he predicts a 40% correction "soon" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Spitznagel#Market_predictions The Q-ratio is currently 1.15. The Buffet Indicator is the 2nd highest it has ever been. http://kimblecharting.tumblr.com/post/113959005666/buffett-valuation-indicator-hits-second-highest 
Also from the same article: We've reached the 61% fibonacci level and the trend has narrowed quite a bit. 
Sharpe Ratio is highest ever. http://brianportnoy.tumblr.com/post/114401270109/even-quiet-markets-are-risky 
We, and the rest of the world, are going off a demographic cliff. This means that the world economy will deflate. 
Zerohedge article for the crazy people How to Prepare for a Sizeable Market Selloff Video 1 How to Prepare for a Sizeable Market Selloff Video 2 How to Prepare for a Sizeable Market Selloff Video 3 The reason leveraged and inverse ETFs can be bad long term investments is because of volatility and the compounding nature of the ETFs. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2223173-inverse-etfs-use-them-rarely-selectively-and-briefly
Depending upon the size of the expected market decline, and the level of confidence in the decline forecast, it may make sense to use SH (or other inverse ETFs) as a hedge during low market volatility periods. http://www.vectorgrader.com/strats/market-model www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-31/consumer-confidence-index-in-u-s-increased-to-101-3-in-march 
----- Quoted:
Some CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E) History: 1950-2014 654 rolling 10-year periods Average 10yr annualized return: 10.31% Average 10yr annualized return for periods which started with a CAPE of over 25: 3.69% Number of 10yr periods which started with a CAPE of 25 or higher: 87 (No kidding. 80-freakin-7) Number of 10yr periods starting with a CAPE of 25 or higher that achieved a 10% or greater return: NONE The median P/E for US stocks is now at the highest level on record. Regression to Trend Is the Stock Market Cheap? We are literally in uncharted territory. 
Every 3-Year and 5-Year Holding Period with a Beginning CAPE of 24 or More - 1926 to 2013 http://fortune.com/2015/02/11/stock-buyback-binge/ 
http://www.etfexpert.com/etf_expert/2015/04/stocks-and-long-bonds-know-that-the-feds-in-a-pickle.html Recessionary level in credit conditions 
http://www.etfexpert.com/etf_expert/2015/03/50-recession-possibility-calls-for-a-higher-than-usual-allocation-to-non-stock-etfs.html http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/131469-david-pinsen/2355922-protecting-a-million-dollar-portfolio http://www.etf.com/publications/journalofindexes/joi-articles/8238-hedging-with-inverse-etfs.html?nopaging=1 
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/080103.asp http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121714/look-uwti-leveraged-oil-etn.asp
Reduced Demand, Geopolitics The ultimate point here is that reduced global demand has led to a deflationary environment. When demand is low, prices must move lower so consumers will continue to purchase products and services. The first hint of an upcoming deflationary environment is often in commodities, just as it was in late 2008. For example, in July 2008, crude oil traded at $145/barrel. On Dec. 23, 2008, it traded at $30.28/barrel. In early 2009, we were in a deflationary environment. This is bad news for oil in today’s world, and oil is likely to hit $30/barrel before it hits $100/barrel. Another big hint is geopolitical tensions, which relates to a weakening global economy. Russia is a good example. These rising tensions are another sign that the global economy is weakening, not strengthening. Remember, everyone is happy when they’re making money. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:19:22 PM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:20:54 PM EDT
[#2]
So put your money where your mouth is and short it.
You'll make a killing. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:21:10 PM EDT
[#3]
"you ain't seen bad yet but it's coming"
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015! ETA: There will always be downturns, my investing horizon is long enough to just keep putting money in the market, regardless of timing |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:25:33 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: "you ain't seen bad yet but it's coming" 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015! ... balanced diverse investments and moderation, WTF else are you gonna do? No. Stuffed mattresses don't count |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:27:43 PM EDT
[#5]
lol you put quite a lot of time into this thread.
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:28:08 PM EDT
[#6]
Inverse ETFs are a remarkably "safe" way to short the market. Much better than actually shorting or buying a put option (which only lasts a limited time frame).
Even if you only put $5000 in one, you could gain up to 10x that amount on a large crash. Then flip around and put it in at the bottom and it grows more. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:31:33 PM EDT
[#7]
Interesting
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:33:10 PM EDT
[#8]
Sure it will. I hear this shit every year from another schmuck who has "it figured out". Every. Single Year.
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:33:29 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Inverse ETFs are a remarkably "safe" way to short the market. Much better than actually shorting or buying a put option (which only lasts a limited time frame). The longer an inverse ETF is held, the less likely it is to track the inverse of its chosen index. So, I can't see it as "safe", other than in the short term. If you are correct in your timing, the 2x and 3x time inverse ETFs will provide better returns, but you have to be correct in that timing. The safest approach would seem to be buying a put, but not necessarily the most rewarding. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:34:41 PM EDT
[#10]
OP should know better than to post negative stock market things in GD. Everyone in GD maxes out their 401k and has $3,000,000 saved for retirement already.
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:35:45 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sure it will. I hear this shit every year from another schmuck who has "it figured out". Every. Single Year. Eventually, one of those schmucks will be right. You can make your fortune while waiting for that to happen though. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:36:07 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Inverse ETFs are a remarkably "safe" way to short the market. Much better than actually shorting or buying a put option (which only lasts a limited time frame). Even if you only put $5000 in one, you could gain up to 10x that amount on a large crash. Then flip around and put it in at the bottom and it grows more. Short term |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:36:15 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
... balanced diverse investments and moderation, WTF else are you gonna do? No. Stuffed mattresses don't count Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
"you ain't seen bad yet but it's coming" 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015! ... balanced diverse investments and moderation, WTF else are you gonna do? No. Stuffed mattresses don't count Hedge. I sold my sole position in VTI today at open and bought UVXE to a lesser extent. Actually hedging would have been to hold VTI and buy UVXE but I'm going all cash (except 100% equity in my TSP) until the market digests when and what the the rate hike will do. Also durable goods came in negative this morning and several economist (fed, morgan Stanley, MLynch) revised their Q1 GDP forecast to either negative or less than one percent (also happened Q1 of last year fyi). But what I sold isn't chump change and I do this for a living ....... Sort of, senior analyst for a bond portfolio Oh a 40-50% drop would be something ..... |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:37:30 PM EDT
[#14]
So what is your specific strategy and how are you poised to take advantage of the crash?
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:39:15 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The longer an inverse ETF is held, the less likely it is to track the inverse of its chosen index. So, I can't see it as "safe", other than in the short term. If you are correct in your timing, the 2x and 3x time inverse ETFs will provide better returns, but you have to be correct in that timing. The safest approach would seem to be buying a put, but not necessarily the most rewarding. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Inverse ETFs are a remarkably "safe" way to short the market. Much better than actually shorting or buying a put option (which only lasts a limited time frame). The longer an inverse ETF is held, the less likely it is to track the inverse of its chosen index. So, I can't see it as "safe", other than in the short term. If you are correct in your timing, the 2x and 3x time inverse ETFs will provide better returns, but you have to be correct in that timing. The safest approach would seem to be buying a put, but not necessarily the most rewarding. a 1x ETF will track the market reasonably well long-term either way. Up or down. But you're right, they seek to match market returns DAILY, not long-term. That's a boon in a trend because your returns compound DAILY. I'm not suggesting that you put all your money in a 3x bear share, but a small amount could turn big reasonably quickly if I'm right. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:39:32 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sure it will. I hear this shit every year from another schmuck who has "it figured out". Every. Single Year. so what you're saying is that sometimes people making these predictions are....right? Did you post a similarly vapid response in 2008? or 1999? or 1987? |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:39:46 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So put your money where your mouth is and short it. You'll make a killing. Neck beard the shit outta that thing..... |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:40:22 PM EDT
[#18]
not this shit again.
Please show me where the excess is. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:41:31 PM EDT
[#19]
My predictions are another 2008 correction. Not a crash.
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:43:26 PM EDT
[#20]
OP - typical of trolls, no solutions, just fear mongering
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:43:37 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
so what you're saying is that sometimes people making these predictions are....right? Did you post a similarly vapid response in 2008? or 1999? or 1987? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Sure it will. I hear this shit every year from another schmuck who has "it figured out". Every. Single Year. so what you're saying is that sometimes people making these predictions are....right? Did you post a similarly vapid response in 2008? or 1999? or 1987? If you want to talk about odds, you'd fare far better looking at it the other way. They are way more often wrong than right. But yes, i guess if you keep saying somethings going to happen over and over, it eventually will....mathematically speaking. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:44:23 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
not this shit again. Please show me where the excess is. Margin is at an all time high. Way high. If that's not excess, I don't know what is. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:44:37 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
OP - typical of trolls, no solutions, just fear mongering Solution has been posted. Many people are keeping a larger percentage than normal of their accounts in cash. Maybe 25%. Why not put 1-2% in a inverse ETF? Then when the market goes down, it goes up, and you have even more capital to put in at the bottom. ETA: or puts or shorts, but as I said, an ETF might be better for a small amount of money. No infinite risk and no *poof* it's gone. In other words, you can "buy and hold" |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:48:42 PM EDT
[#24]
Moar gold for me...
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:49:14 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Hedge. I sold my sole position in VTI today at open and bought UVXE to a lesser extent. Actually hedging would have been to hold VTI and buy UVXE but I'm going all cash (except 100% equity in my TSP) until the market digests when and what the the rate hike will do. Also durable goods came in negative this morning and several economist (fed, morgan Stanley, MLynch) revised their Q1 GDP forecast to either negative or less than one percent (also happened Q1 of last year fyi). But what I sold isn't chump change and I do this for a living ....... Sort of, senior analyst for a bond portfolio Oh a 40-50% drop would be something ..... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
"you ain't seen bad yet but it's coming" 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015! ... balanced diverse investments and moderation, WTF else are you gonna do? No. Stuffed mattresses don't count Hedge. I sold my sole position in VTI today at open and bought UVXE to a lesser extent. Actually hedging would have been to hold VTI and buy UVXE but I'm going all cash (except 100% equity in my TSP) until the market digests when and what the the rate hike will do. Also durable goods came in negative this morning and several economist (fed, morgan Stanley, MLynch) revised their Q1 GDP forecast to either negative or less than one percent (also happened Q1 of last year fyi). But what I sold isn't chump change and I do this for a living ....... Sort of, senior analyst for a bond portfolio Oh a 40-50% drop would be something ..... UVXY? |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:50:05 PM EDT
[#26]
Reset coming....
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:54:14 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryWhat if you put some of your money in an inverse ETF at market peaks keeping the rest only invested at market peaks? |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:54:15 PM EDT
[#28]
 Quote HistorySolution has been posted. Many people are keeping a larger percentage than normal of their accounts in cash. Maybe 25%. Why not put 1-2% in a inverse ETF? Then when the market goes down, it goes up, and you have even more capital to put in at the bottom. ETA: or puts or shorts, but as I said, an ETF might be better for a small amount of money. No infinite risk and no *poof* it's gone. Data is old, I bet since everyone is scared to shit over rate hikes a lot of positions have been covered, depending on what instrument it went into. Interesting chart: 
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/nyse-margin-debt.html?NYSE-investor-credit-SPX-since-1980.gif |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:58:23 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Solution has been posted. Many people are keeping a larger percentage than normal of their accounts in cash. Maybe 25%. Why not put 1-2% in a inverse ETF? Then when the market goes down, it goes up, and you have even more capital to put in at the bottom. ETA: or puts or shorts, but as I said, an ETF might be better for a small amount of money. No infinite risk and no *poof* it's gone. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
OP - typical of trolls, no solutions, just fear mongering Solution has been posted. Many people are keeping a larger percentage than normal of their accounts in cash. Maybe 25%. Why not put 1-2% in a inverse ETF? Then when the market goes down, it goes up, and you have even more capital to put in at the bottom. ETA: or puts or shorts, but as I said, an ETF might be better for a small amount of money. No infinite risk and no *poof* it's gone. So which have you done? |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 7:59:11 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So which have you done? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
OP - typical of trolls, no solutions, just fear mongering Solution has been posted. Many people are keeping a larger percentage than normal of their accounts in cash. Maybe 25%. Why not put 1-2% in a inverse ETF? Then when the market goes down, it goes up, and you have even more capital to put in at the bottom. ETA: or puts or shorts, but as I said, an ETF might be better for a small amount of money. No infinite risk and no *poof* it's gone. So which have you done? Can't tell from my posts? |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:00:58 PM EDT
[#31]
Concur with LuckyDucky. Either late this year or sometime early in 2016.
Egon von Greyerz thinks the derivative bubble will burst soon. http://kingworldnews.com/worldwide-markets-to-see-total-panic-as-massive-derivatives-bubble-implodes/. We were supposed to have crashed in 2008 but that's been delayed. This delay didn't fix the problem but only exacerbated it. The Too Big To Fail of 2008 are even bigger than before. The problem has only gotten bigger and folks are kidding themselves if they think there's been a recovery. 49 million on EBTs, our new hidden form of the soup kitchen. Over 93 million unemployed Americans. What recovery? |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:02:51 PM EDT
[#32]
Is your prediction only for the US market or also for the European market
I have been following the German market and it has been on a massive up swing and it should also be due to a correction. any thoughts |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:04:01 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:If you want to talk about odds, you'd fare far better looking at it the other way. They are way more often wrong than right. But yes, i guess if you keep saying somethings going to happen over and over, it eventually will....mathematically speaking. exactly. Regardless of the circumstances, bull markets do not last forever. It's never happened. Will the correction occur this year? I have no idea. Doesn't matter to me. When the market tanks, I just buy more. The fact remains, a correction is coming. Just a matter of time. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:04:45 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Can't tell from my posts? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
OP - typical of trolls, no solutions, just fear mongering Solution has been posted. Many people are keeping a larger percentage than normal of their accounts in cash. Maybe 25%. Why not put 1-2% in a inverse ETF? Then when the market goes down, it goes up, and you have even more capital to put in at the bottom. ETA: or puts or shorts, but as I said, an ETF might be better for a small amount of money. No infinite risk and no *poof* it's gone. So which have you done? Can't tell from my posts? No, given your high level of conviction that route doesn't make sense. I can see why you might recommend it to others who don't feel as strongly as you do |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:05:08 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Inverse ETFs are a remarkably "safe" way to short the market. Much better than actually shorting or buying a put option (which only lasts a limited time frame). Even if you only put $5000 in one, you could gain up to 10x that amount on a large crash. Then flip around and put it in at the bottom and it grows more. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:06:20 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Inverse ETFs are a remarkably "safe" way to short the market. Much better than actually shorting or buying a put option (which only lasts a limited time frame). Even if you only put $5000 in one, you could gain up to 10x that amount on a large crash. Then flip around and put it in at the bottom and it grows more. Safe is not the best word since if your timing is of you are screwed. But ETFs are a good way to make money. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:06:46 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Is your prediction only for the US market or also for the European market I have been following the German market and it has been on a massive up swing and it should also be due to a correction. any thoughts Based on the demographic data, worldwide, although not all exactly in sync. But other than that, I haven't looked specifically at any other markets. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:10:08 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Safe is not the best word since if your timing is of you are screwed. But ETFs are a good way to make money. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Inverse ETFs are a remarkably "safe" way to short the market. Much better than actually shorting or buying a put option (which only lasts a limited time frame). Even if you only put $5000 in one, you could gain up to 10x that amount on a large crash. Then flip around and put it in at the bottom and it grows more. Safe is not the best word since if your timing is of you are screwed. But ETFs are a good way to make money. Most people, especially average joe individuals, can't participate in complex trading schemes such as what Universa does. Either they can't because they don't have enough money or they couldn't possibly understand. That's why I consider the ETF. And don't put all your eggs in that basket precisely because they aren't good long-term vehicles. But it is a decent hedge against impending doom, in my opinion. This is not advice, and I'm just a dumb GD denizen. 
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:10:08 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What if you put some of your money in an inverse ETF at market peaks keeping the rest only invested at market peaks? Quote HistoryQuoted:
What if you put some of your money in an inverse ETF at market peaks keeping the rest only invested at market peaks? The trick would be knowing those peaks and if you could predict that accurately why would you only do some of your money? People that try to time the market make less than people that cost average it. I don't have the ego to think I know better than the movers and shakers that drive the market. I am comfortable riding the wave and making money without gambling. The point is that every time we have one of these doom and gloom threads, say once a month to be conservative, there are always a few deciding to go cash and a bunch more that say that the market is rigged so they don't participate. The link shows an absolute worse case scenario and it still made the "guy" a millionaire. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:10:24 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Based on the demographic data, worldwide, although not all exactly in sync. But other than that, I haven't looked specifically at any other markets. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Is your prediction only for the US market or also for the European market I have been following the German market and it has been on a massive up swing and it should also be due to a correction. any thoughts Based on the demographic data, worldwide, although not all exactly in sync. But other than that, I haven't looked specifically at any other markets. thanks for the reply |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:16:49 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
... The trick would be knowing those peaks and if you could predict that accurately why would you only do some of your money? Quote HistoryQuoted:
... The trick would be knowing those peaks and if you could predict that accurately why would you only do some of your money? Quoted:
... No, given your high level of conviction that route doesn't make sense. I can see why you might recommend it to others who don't feel as strongly as you do If I knew with 100% certainty, why not? But I don't. Inverse ETFs, shorts, and options can be a lot more risky long-term than value investing/momentum investing in typical equities. Risk + uncertainty = small hedge, not bet the farm. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:17:28 PM EDT
[#42]
Prepare for Y2.016K. Buy toilet paper, canned food, generators and water barrels while you can!
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:18:05 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Prepare for Y2.016K. Buy toilet paper, canned food, generators and water barrels while you can! Even better, buy futures!
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:33:11 PM EDT
[#44]
It was about time for the annual stock market meltdown thread. Keep trying, one of these days you chicken littles will get some disaster right.
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:35:41 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So put your money where your mouth is and short it. You'll make a killing. SPNI. |
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:38:53 PM EDT
[#47]
It will be set off by the republicans winning the white house by the liberal communist and done on purpose.
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:38:53 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
SPNI. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
So put your money where your mouth is and short it. You'll make a killing. SPNI. I'm not going to buy or short Sputnik Enterprises stock. 
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:40:07 PM EDT
[#49]
you know, i was gonna come in here and call busllshit, but you have charts.
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Posted: 3/25/2015 8:40:39 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It will be set off by the republicans winning the white house by the liberal communist and done on purpose. The last crash happened through 2008, 7.5 years ago and a presidential election year. |
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