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Link Posted: 10/19/2014 7:47:16 PM EDT
[#1]
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Quoted:
I'm not sure what everyone considers low real estate prices.

Here, houses are way high.  I see 300K+ houses that are no way worth that much.  You can also look up on the county tax site what they were bought for.  I'm often seeing land that sold for 68K now trying to be sold for 150K.  Also, houses that were bought for 100K on the market for 250K.  I'm not sure if these folks have gotten extra mortgages or what on this and are trying to break even?

You are correct OP.  A correction seems to be needed.

View Quote



I'm in Lexington county.

Home prices here have been dead flat since late 2009. New construction all over the place at about $60/ft all inclusive, homes built on existing lots are being sold for less than $50/ft.

That just wouldn't be possible without illegal labor. New construction is operating at margins so narrow it's priced most of the small builders out of the market. There's work here, even for people without any particular skills, and the tax structure makes home ownership a lot cheaper than renting.

The median sale price on existing homes is about $100K, lots of small older homes, some of them quite nice, and tons of 3000ft mcmansions at $200K.

I just don't see a big downside risk here in central SC.

The premiums people pay to live in nice areas on the coasts, and/or near major earning potential and employment aren't going to completely evaporate either.

In the years leading up to the crash I was one of the voices saying there was a bubble that was about to pop and it was going to be really bad, when a lot of folks in GD were convinced I was crazy and it couldn't happen. Of course I was in W.WA then and that was a different market, but I don't see the same downside risk I did then.

I don't believe interest rates are going to rise appreciably either, we don't live under a free capital market regime. There just isn't any incentive for the government (and the Fed is operating as a government entity) to create a crisis by raising rates, it would gut every revenue stream they have.

They'll keep talking about it, they might tighten a little here and there but as soon as it starts to impact the markets they'll loosen up again. There just isn't the sort of inflationary pressure that would force their hand on the horizon IMO.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 9:01:11 PM EDT
[#2]
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Quoted:


You people really need to wake up from the childish text book examples you have stuck in your head. There are no free market forces at work here. None of the pretext for market response or market pressures exist. We are not competing for a limited supply of dollars. There is no time-consequence-of-money driving the financial institutions to turn properties over in order to recover assets and maintain liquidity, in order to have the cash flow to stay in business another day.

NONE of that exists, so the simple-simon examples predicated on that model are simply bullshit.

Buyers do not set the price. They accept the terms dealt to them by a corrupt monopoly, or they are not permitted to consume. Get that straight.

Financial institutions have a near monopoly on property holdings. They set the 'value' of the property, not the buyer. Sign for the exorbitant loan amount or kiss off.

They can afford to sit on the properties indefinitely, so long as their accounting contains figures that are inflated high enough to justify their solvency. As long as they provide bogus balance sheets, the Fed gives them unlimited no-interest funds. No interest. There is no incentive to EVER pay anything back. No incentive to ever accept an offer that would upset their fraudulent accounting.

Why would I ever take your low offer, when I can print all the money I want; just by scribbling down lies? All levels of governance profit from the bogus accounting, so it will never come to an end.


The only players that can't afford to play the game that way are legitimate private land holders. This means that they're going to get squeezed out, and the institutional monopoly will grow more solid with time.

The Feudal lords and serfs model is a much better representation of American property system than any silly notions of freedom.
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The problem is that investors are buying up property and realty companies are raising prices because houses are selling. Atleast thats whats happening around my area.


"Realty companies" don't and cant set prices. Like anything else, home prices are determined by the market.


You people really need to wake up from the childish text book examples you have stuck in your head. There are no free market forces at work here. None of the pretext for market response or market pressures exist. We are not competing for a limited supply of dollars. There is no time-consequence-of-money driving the financial institutions to turn properties over in order to recover assets and maintain liquidity, in order to have the cash flow to stay in business another day.

NONE of that exists, so the simple-simon examples predicated on that model are simply bullshit.

Buyers do not set the price. They accept the terms dealt to them by a corrupt monopoly, or they are not permitted to consume. Get that straight.

Financial institutions have a near monopoly on property holdings. They set the 'value' of the property, not the buyer. Sign for the exorbitant loan amount or kiss off.

They can afford to sit on the properties indefinitely, so long as their accounting contains figures that are inflated high enough to justify their solvency. As long as they provide bogus balance sheets, the Fed gives them unlimited no-interest funds. No interest. There is no incentive to EVER pay anything back. No incentive to ever accept an offer that would upset their fraudulent accounting.

Why would I ever take your low offer, when I can print all the money I want; just by scribbling down lies? All levels of governance profit from the bogus accounting, so it will never come to an end.


The only players that can't afford to play the game that way are legitimate private land holders. This means that they're going to get squeezed out, and the institutional monopoly will grow more solid with time.

The Feudal lords and serfs model is a much better representation of American property system than any silly notions of freedom.



That hits the nail directly on the head.


Link Posted: 10/19/2014 9:02:04 PM EDT
[#3]
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So in your part of the world, people pay more for homes than they are worth. Gatcha.
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The problem is that investors are buying up property and realty companies are raising prices because houses are selling. Atleast thats whats happening around my area.


"Realty companies" don't and cant set prices. Like anything else, home prices are determined by the market.


You people really need to wake up from the childish text book examples you have stuck in your head. There are no free market forces at work here. None of the pretext for market response or market pressures exist. We are not competing for a limited supply of dollars. There is no time-consequence-of-money driving the financial institutions to turn properties over in order to recover assets and maintain liquidity, in order to have the cash flow to stay in business another day.

NONE of that exists, so the simple-simon examples predicated on that model are simply bullshit.

Buyers do not set the price. They accept the terms dealt to them by a corrupt monopoly, or they are not permitted to consume. Get that straight.

Financial institutions have a near monopoly on property holdings. They set the 'value' of the property, not the buyer. Sign for the exorbitant loan amount or kiss off.

They can afford to sit on the properties indefinitely, so long as their accounting contains figures that are inflated high enough to justify their solvency. As long as they provide bogus balance sheets, the Fed gives them unlimited no-interest funds. No interest. There is no incentive to EVER pay anything back. No incentive to ever accept an offer that would upset their fraudulent accounting.

Why would I ever take your low offer, when I can print all the money I want; just by scribbling down lies? All levels of governance profit from the bogus accounting, so it will never come to an end.


The only players that can't afford to play the game that way are legitimate private land holders. This means that they're going to get squeezed out, and the institutional monopoly will grow more solid with time.

The Feudal lords and serfs model is a much better representation of American property system than any silly notions of freedom.


So in your part of the world, people pay more for homes than they are worth. Gatcha.


You don't "got" anything.
You're in over your head, and don't no which direction the wind is blowing.

Link Posted: 10/19/2014 9:03:55 PM EDT
[#4]
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Quoted:



That hits the nail directly on the head.


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The problem is that investors are buying up property and realty companies are raising prices because houses are selling. Atleast thats whats happening around my area.


"Realty companies" don't and cant set prices. Like anything else, home prices are determined by the market.


You people really need to wake up from the childish text book examples you have stuck in your head. There are no free market forces at work here. None of the pretext for market response or market pressures exist. We are not competing for a limited supply of dollars. There is no time-consequence-of-money driving the financial institutions to turn properties over in order to recover assets and maintain liquidity, in order to have the cash flow to stay in business another day.

NONE of that exists, so the simple-simon examples predicated on that model are simply bullshit.

Buyers do not set the price. They accept the terms dealt to them by a corrupt monopoly, or they are not permitted to consume. Get that straight.

Financial institutions have a near monopoly on property holdings. They set the 'value' of the property, not the buyer. Sign for the exorbitant loan amount or kiss off.

They can afford to sit on the properties indefinitely, so long as their accounting contains figures that are inflated high enough to justify their solvency. As long as they provide bogus balance sheets, the Fed gives them unlimited no-interest funds. No interest. There is no incentive to EVER pay anything back. No incentive to ever accept an offer that would upset their fraudulent accounting.

Why would I ever take your low offer, when I can print all the money I want; just by scribbling down lies? All levels of governance profit from the bogus accounting, so it will never come to an end.


The only players that can't afford to play the game that way are legitimate private land holders. This means that they're going to get squeezed out, and the institutional monopoly will grow more solid with time.

The Feudal lords and serfs model is a much better representation of American property system than any silly notions of freedom.



That hits the nail directly on the head.




Thank you. I'm glad someone gets it. I start to wonder why I bother typing ....

Link Posted: 10/19/2014 9:17:54 PM EDT
[#5]
Wow for a guy in it you don't seem to read much. Try the wsj some time
You will realize how off you are.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 9:36:29 PM EDT
[#6]
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Quoted:




That hits the nail directly on the head.




Thank you. I'm glad someone gets it. I start to wonder why I bother typing ....

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Quoted:


The Feudal lords and serfs model is a much better representation of American property system than any silly notions of freedom.



That hits the nail directly on the head.




Thank you. I'm glad someone gets it. I start to wonder why I bother typing ....



Yeah, one of the most accurate descriptions I have seen in years. You get the prize for the best post of the year, if not decade.

Link Posted: 10/19/2014 9:38:45 PM EDT
[#7]
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Quoted:
Wow for a guy in it you don't seem to read much. Try the wsj some time
You will realize how off you are.
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Yeah, right. MSM = MainStream Media. A resource we can trust for sure.



Link Posted: 10/19/2014 9:57:13 PM EDT
[#8]
Meh, raw land and town lot prices stayed steady in my area even after the collapse.  

In NOVA builders would come in and buy a older home on a large lot (usually a corner lot) for basically the price of the lot, tear it down, and build a Mc Mansion on it.

As housing prices went back up and the practice was more costly it left a lot of weird looking neighborhoods with mix of 50 year old ranchers and new Mc Mansions.

Add to that recent Hispanic immigrants have been buying/renting the ranchers so Mr & Mrs Mc Mansion's lives are not going as they hoped.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 9:59:38 PM EDT
[#9]
It's due to collapse because the bubble was reinflated.  Hedge funds were the first big buyers pushing up prices and then the flippers came in.  

This is why I've been telling Arfcomers not to buy real estate  (unless it's working farmland).  Wait for the crash.  I'd wait for property to be sold for back taxes before I'd buy.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:02:27 PM EDT
[#10]
Quoted:

The only thing that is sustaining current real estate prices is credit offered by debt-peddlers.

Even in the rural, middle-of-nowhere areas, real estate is still way too high. No jobs, no funding and the only way to get something - anything - is to borrow so much that you are in debt for the rest of your life. That's the SOP.  $150K for a house in rural Kentucky/WV/etc.  With no jobs anywhere? Not even min-wage?  Places where $10/hour Home Depot jobs are considered "good jobs".

The second wave of RE collapse will come when all credit becomes unavailable and the housing prices adjust to the min-wage wages or lack thereof in the boonies. The only thing that's keeping this high is credit.

We will have a RE collapse. We *need* a RE collapse to come back to reality.  140K in rural TX is not viable.

Current prices are just absurd. Especially in the context of the current economic collapse. Jobs are hard to find with dozens of applicants even for janitor positions. Even min-wage jobs has become unobtanium in rural areas. You can only get a job if "you know someone". A janitor job opens up and 12 people show up to apply, what does that tell you?

Here in the District of Corruption, it's even worse. No crash here and prices are just in the stratosphere. $650K for a house. You can sometimes get defaults but even these are way too high.  

I work in IT and they used to get 200-300 applicants per opening 10 years ago, now it's more like 800 people applying for same job. Granted 90% of them are BS candidates with terrible /off-topic resumes but the remaining 10% are still dozens of very strong candidates.

Point is, people have no money and keep financing their lifestyle with credit. That means from food to gas to real estate. It's a narcotic and will soon disappear and then we shall know the meaning of crash. They can extend it but not indefinitely.

Then if you still got the coin - and that's a big "if" - you can buy anything. If the hyperinflation does not wipe out the currency.

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Realtor in Loudoun County checking in. Our average sale price is $586,000. Houses listed vs. houses purchased isn't too imbalanced, but yeah over 600K for in the city, no land, small, and old construction....no thanks.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:05:34 PM EDT
[#11]
Depends on the area.

I'm still waiting for the big commercial RE burst

Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:07:03 PM EDT
[#12]
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Meh. Bought my place this year for $200,000 less than the owner paid and got a historically low rate.
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This. I bought last year at 200k-300k under value and got a 3.25% rate with $14,000 back in lender credit.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:10:59 PM EDT
[#13]
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Quoted:


You people really need to wake up from the childish text book examples you have stuck in your head. There are no free market forces at work here. None of the pretext for market response or market pressures exist. We are not competing for a limited supply of dollars. There is no time-consequence-of-money driving the financial institutions to turn properties over in order to recover assets and maintain liquidity, in order to have the cash flow to stay in business another day.

NONE of that exists, so the simple-simon examples predicated on that model are simply bullshit.

Buyers do not set the price. They accept the terms dealt to them by a corrupt monopoly, or they are not permitted to consume. Get that straight.

Financial institutions have a near monopoly on property holdings. They set the 'value' of the property, not the buyer. Sign for the exorbitant loan amount or kiss off.

They can afford to sit on the properties indefinitely, so long as their accounting contains figures that are inflated high enough to justify their solvency. As long as they provide bogus balance sheets, the Fed gives them unlimited no-interest funds. No interest. There is no incentive to EVER pay anything back. No incentive to ever accept an offer that would upset their fraudulent accounting.

Why would I ever take your low offer, when I can print all the money I want; just by scribbling down lies? All levels of governance profit from the bogus accounting, so it will never come to an end.


The only players that can't afford to play the game that way are legitimate private land holders. This means that they're going to get squeezed out, and the institutional monopoly will grow more solid with time.

The Feudal lords and serfs model is a much better representation of American property system than any silly notions of freedom.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
The problem is that investors are buying up property and realty companies are raising prices because houses are selling. Atleast thats whats happening around my area.


"Realty companies" don't and cant set prices. Like anything else, home prices are determined by the market.


You people really need to wake up from the childish text book examples you have stuck in your head. There are no free market forces at work here. None of the pretext for market response or market pressures exist. We are not competing for a limited supply of dollars. There is no time-consequence-of-money driving the financial institutions to turn properties over in order to recover assets and maintain liquidity, in order to have the cash flow to stay in business another day.

NONE of that exists, so the simple-simon examples predicated on that model are simply bullshit.

Buyers do not set the price. They accept the terms dealt to them by a corrupt monopoly, or they are not permitted to consume. Get that straight.

Financial institutions have a near monopoly on property holdings. They set the 'value' of the property, not the buyer. Sign for the exorbitant loan amount or kiss off.

They can afford to sit on the properties indefinitely, so long as their accounting contains figures that are inflated high enough to justify their solvency. As long as they provide bogus balance sheets, the Fed gives them unlimited no-interest funds. No interest. There is no incentive to EVER pay anything back. No incentive to ever accept an offer that would upset their fraudulent accounting.

Why would I ever take your low offer, when I can print all the money I want; just by scribbling down lies? All levels of governance profit from the bogus accounting, so it will never come to an end.


The only players that can't afford to play the game that way are legitimate private land holders. This means that they're going to get squeezed out, and the institutional monopoly will grow more solid with time.

The Feudal lords and serfs model is a much better representation of American property system than any silly notions of freedom.

No dude America is a bastion of free market capitalism.

'merica.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:14:13 PM EDT
[#14]
Friend of mine father, bought a lot for 200k in 1970's, he just sold the lot for over 6 million and this is zoned for a house. OP i hear you, but the one thing people never ever ever ever ever understand with real estate is to NEVER sell untill you really want to... real estate prices always go up no matter what over time, whether its from inflation or demand.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:15:47 PM EDT
[#15]

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Friend of mine father, bought a lot for 200k in 1970's, he just sold the lot for over 6 million and this is zoned for a house. OP i hear you, but the one thing people never ever ever ever ever understand with real estate is to NEVER sell untill you really want to... real estate prices always go up no matter what over time, whether its from inflation or demand.
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Unless that land is in Detroit.



 
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:17:28 PM EDT
[#16]
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A house is a liability, not an investment.
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The real estate market I am interested in hasn't changed much in the last 10 years even through the bad times.  Even if a collapse is coming, things will go back up and stabilize again so I am not too worried.  It is still the best form of investment by far compared to stock market.



A house is a liability, not an investment.



Not if done correctly.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:34:32 PM EDT
[#17]
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easiest way to fix it make the banks responsible for maintaining and property tax on every foreclosed home on the books make the house a liability not an asset to sit on.   prices will normalize in a week.
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Are they not responsible for it right now?   How does that work?  i've always wondered.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:46:30 PM EDT
[#18]
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This. I bought last year at 200k-300k under value and got a 3.25% rate with $14,000 back in lender credit.
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Meh. Bought my place this year for $200,000 less than the owner paid and got a historically low rate.


This. I bought last year at 200k-300k under value and got a 3.25% rate with $14,000 back in lender credit.



What is lender credit?
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:52:21 PM EDT
[#19]
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What is lender credit?
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Meh. Bought my place this year for $200,000 less than the owner paid and got a historically low rate.


This. I bought last year at 200k-300k under value and got a 3.25% rate with $14,000 back in lender credit.



What is lender credit?



Money back at closing. Basically the opposite of points.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:57:44 PM EDT
[#20]
No collapse is coming.. prices have been clawing their way skyward again, but it is driven not by a bubble as in the prior increase during the Clinton and Bush years but by increased cost of materials and decreased value of the dollar. Foreclosures had been keeping old housing at ridiculous lows, but now that most of them are done, and new construction is back on prices are correcting based on actual cost to build and that is going up up up.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 10:58:46 PM EDT
[#21]
The sharks are running out of people who will fall fir their predatory loans.  They done milked that tit dry.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 11:04:34 PM EDT
[#22]
Jesus, some people live in fear of their own shadow. Make good choices, don't buy shit you can't afford, take personal responsibility and don't take stupid fucking deals.

Not blowing your wad on loans you can't afford isn't fucking rocket science.

The first collapse was caused by people getting loans they couldn't afford. Predatory lending can't happen if people aren't fucking morons.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 11:26:28 PM EDT
[#23]
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Jesus, some people live in fear of their own shadow. Make good choices, don't buy shit you can't afford, take personal responsibility and don't take stupid fucking deals.

Not blowing your wad on loans you can't afford isn't fucking rocket science.

The first collapse was caused by people getting loans they couldn't afford. Predatory lending can't happen if people aren't fucking morons.
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I don't believe that's true. That's the narrative we were sold to explain what happened without people demanding change.

The first collapse was a general credit bubble burst, it was caused by the Fed holding real interest rates negative for too long and the entire financial system leveraging itself into a corner as a result.

Housing cracked first because it's such a highly leveraged market and so widely held, the sub-prime segment was the most vulnerable and those were the people most likely to default. Those marginal borrowers didn't cause the meltdown that hit every asset class just because they were the first people hit by it.

Everything that happened in the private sector was perfectly rational given the prevailing market conditions, the problem was the people playing God with the credit supply weren't allowing market forces to work, they still aren't.

What several other posters have said is basically correct, there isn't appropriate market pricing of much of anything at the moment, but it isn't just the mortgage lenders to blame and it isn't just housing, it's the lack of market pricing of money and credit itself that's the primary risk factor.

It actually always has been, it's just a lot more interesting at the zero boundary.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 11:26:30 PM EDT
[#24]
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Jesus, some people live in fear of their own shadow. Make good choices, don't buy shit you can't afford, take personal responsibility and don't take stupid fucking deals.

Not blowing your wad on loans you can't afford isn't fucking rocket science.

The first collapse was caused by people getting loans they couldn't afford. Predatory lending can't happen if people aren't fucking morons.
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Or, perhaps, predatory borrowers?
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 11:36:49 PM EDT
[#25]
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If you seriously believed in the hyperinflation scenario, you too would be addicted to credit.  I know I'd be leveraging all I could to buy as much as I could.
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That's right.

If OP actually believed the crap he is posting he would borrow every dollar that someone would lend to him, because he would be able to easily pay it back when dollars are worthless. But OP doesn't really believe his own chicken little BS.
Link Posted: 10/19/2014 11:50:21 PM EDT
[#26]


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http://online.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-close-to-agreement-that-could-reduce-lender-penalties-1413561203



Mortgage Giants Set to Loosen Lending

Fannie, Freddie Near Deal to Lift Limits; Concerns Persist



By Joe Light

Updated Oct. 17, 2014 6:56 p.m. ET

281 COMMENTS



Fannie Mae , Freddie Mac and mortgage lenders are nearing an agreement that could lower barriers and restrictions on borrowers with weak credit, a move that would expand access to home loans amid the sluggish housing recovery.



The move by the mortgage-finance giants and their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, would help lenders protect themselves from claims of making bad loans, according to people familiar with the matter.



Fannie and Freddie are also considering programs that would make it easier for lenders to offer mortgages with down payments of as little as 3% for some borrowers, the people said. That would be a reversal for the loan giants. The moves could be announced as soon as this coming week.





Let the good times roll
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 12:26:15 AM EDT
[#27]
The last bubble was interest rate driven, and the coming downturn will also be, if interest rates ever are allowed to go up.

Lets assume incomes are not rising rapidly.  I think this is a safe assumption.  

Next, assume most homeowners need a loan to buy a house.  OK, now take a family making $100,000.00 a year.  

At 3.3% (current 30 year fixed)  this family can borrow and buy a 414,000 home.

At 6.6 %  (just picked that number since it is double the current 30 year fixed rate) this family can borrow for and buy a $298,000 home.  

Finally, at the historic 30 year fixed mortgage average, approximately 8.0%, this family can buy a $174,000 home.  

Now, here is the little secret.  The family describe above is buying the same house.  From a demographic point of view, people live in the neighborhoods they socially expect to live in.  This means the cops live in cop neighborhoods, the lawyers live in lawyer neighborhoods, and the surgeons live in surgeon neighborhoods.  Home prices fluctuate to meet this fact.  

So, there will be a huge crash if interest rates ever move back to market rates.  But the FED will probably never allow this to happen.  Just keep rates down, continue round after round of QE, and let inflation run its course.

But for anyone to say this market is priced right is fooling themselves.  This mortgage market (and that means housing market) is supported by money being printed.  If that ever stops, watch out.  If that does not ever stop, watch out.  In other words, we may not know what it is, but something very bad is coming.
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 12:33:28 AM EDT
[#28]
Oh, and before you give me the negative comments of living in fear.  I make a very good living off of real estate whether it is going up (representing builders) or down (bankruptcy work).  So I will win in either scenario.  But you cannot fool math, so anyone who disagrees with me please include some numbers instead of statements like "the market is different now" or "we are in a new paradigm" or "fundamentals have changed."
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 12:33:59 AM EDT
[#29]
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We are in the damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. The RE situation is just icing on the cake.

The economy runs on credit, debt - called Quantative Easing part X but it just means running the printing press and adding zeros on the computer screen. This leads to higher national debt, deficit, interest payments, and inflation. The end game is currency collapse with a postage stamp costing $10,000. The current debt of 17T can never be repaid - no plans to repay, it's not economically feasible. Even if the fed gov shut down every program, they still could not repay it. The debt is a run away train and the gov just hits the gas pedal. The end game is hyperinflation.  There is no other outcome possible.  That's what happens when there is just too much "money", or Notes printed.
The US had several hyperinflations already. First during the revolutionary war, the Continental currency went to zero. During the Civil war, the Southern currency was almost completely devalued. So it's not like a hyperinflation is a thing that never happened before.

Every president and Congress thinks short term. Everyone adds to the debt, bails out today, but tomorrow is coming. It's like getting another CC to pay off the first credit card ad infinitum.

So with the option of endless QE, wearing out the printing press, "Too big to fail". And much demagoguery about the subject, everyone who does not want to raise the debt limit and print "Notes" forever is the enemy of the people and a Republican. The current path leads to a hyperinflationary depression.  Hyperinflation causes social political instability and usually brings down the government. e.g. The Continental brought down the Confederation of 1777 and led to creation of the US by the Constitutional Convention. The tsarist government collapsed in 1917 when the ruble was destroyed, etc. etc. etc.

The second option is to reduce the debt, stop printing money, stop borrowing, cut social programs.  That might fix thing very long-term but short term too will lead to a depression, more like a huge contraction in business because everything runs on debt, credit and funding. If they seriously reduced the debt, we would be a in a depression far worse than the Great Depression. Which is why nobody wants to do it, it's not possible.

so no matter what they do, we are screwed and well past the point of no return. Hyperinflationary depresson or a deflationary collapse. some choice. Does not take a genius to see which path they have chosen. Hint: Not the deflationary pay-off-the-debt one.


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You're daft if you think that the Pres/Congress are deceived in any way by what's going on. They know exactly what's going to happen, and they masturbate at the thought of it actually happening.
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 8:56:55 AM EDT
[#30]
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Quoted:



Refi is a fucking joke.


I've got an 8.25% rate , was told I qualified for a new rate of 3.25 %

Would lower my payment by a whopping $75 a month

And it would only cost me $ 10,000

what the fuck ever
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Our house is still less than what it was pre '08.
Couldn't get a refi because the value was less than we owed.



Refi is a fucking joke.


I've got an 8.25% rate , was told I qualified for a new rate of 3.25 %

Would lower my payment by a whopping $75 a month

And it would only cost me $ 10,000

what the fuck ever

5% decrease and only a $75/month difference?   How much did you owe?

We went from 5.25% to 3.5% and went down over $100 per month.
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 9:01:54 AM EDT
[#31]
My house goes on the market today. I bought in 2008 at $146k. Realtor thinks we can list at $145k now. So basically I've only regained the value my house lost shortly after buying it.

I'm looking at a townhouse closer in to Austin for only a little less... but property in Austin is going up faster because it's the #1 city in the fucking entire country that people are moving to.

We'll see what happens in the future, but if the townhouse works out, it'll be better for me in many regards.
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 10:11:22 AM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Refi is a fucking joke.


I've got an 8.25% rate , was told I qualified for a new rate of 3.25 %

Would lower my payment by a whopping $75 a month

And it would only cost me $ 10,000

what the fuck ever
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Our house is still less than what it was pre '08.
Couldn't get a refi because the value was less than we owed.



Refi is a fucking joke.


I've got an 8.25% rate , was told I qualified for a new rate of 3.25 %

Would lower my payment by a whopping $75 a month

And it would only cost me $ 10,000

what the fuck ever


Call  Union Savings Bank.  We've refid for $400 cash a couple times.  Saved a lotta money.
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 10:18:05 AM EDT
[#33]
I was watching one of these "flip the house" programs yesterday.  In Hawthorne California there was a $700K house on a busy street that was about 1400 ft2.  To me it wasn't worth more than $150K and that was after it was renovated.  Bloated market.
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 10:25:13 AM EDT
[#34]
I just sold my home for 15k more than what I paid in 2000.



It's still 50k less than it appraised for before the crash.



Link Posted: 10/20/2014 10:35:38 AM EDT
[#35]
I like these threads

With interest rate still low, home prices go up.  We need inflation to change the interest rates.  Unfortunately the CPI is officially useless when FBHO removed the gas and food prices
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 10:38:14 AM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I like these threads

With interest rate still low, home prices go up.  We need inflation to change the interest rates.  Unfortunately the CPI is officially useless when FBHO removed the gas and food prices
View Quote

I think Nixon did that.  Anyway, hedonics plays a huge role in the CPI.  Those figures can't be trusted. ShadowStats FTW.
Link Posted: 10/20/2014 10:39:03 AM EDT
[#37]
Bought my mid 70's tri-level for 164,500 in 2001.  Two adjacent neighbors just sold their homes for ~195,000.  So in the thirteen years I have been here my property has only increased in value by ~30K

Luckily we only owe ~99K so we are still in the green for now.  I would love to sell and move out to the boonies, in another state of course, but I highly doubt being an electrician in a rural setting would pay much.

Link Posted: 10/20/2014 10:41:42 AM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I must be living in a bubble. Real Estate prices in the Tulsa area are still down.
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Prices have chilled a bit in the past couple months, but prior to that?  The Western Detroit suburbs have gotten back to pre crash prices.  Don't think Detroit, think land between Ann Arbor and, say Livonia.

Link Posted: 10/20/2014 3:57:15 PM EDT
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


I don't believe that's true. That's the narrative we were sold to explain what happened without people demanding change.

The first collapse was a general credit bubble burst, it was caused by the Fed holding real interest rates ...
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Quoted:
Quoted:
The first collapse was caused by people getting loans they couldn't afford.


I don't believe that's true. That's the narrative we were sold to explain what happened without people demanding change.

The first collapse was a general credit bubble burst, it was caused by the Fed holding real interest rates ...


Does no one pay ANY attention???


The first collapse was the intentional maturation of a mortgage-backed-securities fraud scam; perpetrated by every housing lender in the country.

Then banks were processing loan applications "As-Stated". Meaning they did not verify income or employment status when originating 1/2 $Million loans. They were also accepting matricula consular cards as valid ID for these As-Stated transactions. In order to hyperinflate the transaction price, the set it up so that the unverified borrowers could pay interest-only for several years.

Illegal aliens with $25 fake IDs were buying half million dollar homes for less than they would pay to rent an apartment, then taking our equity loans to buy trucks and whatever else.

The note had a $1Million dollar repayment schedule, and the banks sold it off as good paper. As soon as the interest-only portion expired and it was time for the Home-Depot-Parking-lot-illegal-alien-day-laborer to start paying $6K/mo, they defaulted, got a new $25 fake ID, and bought another 1/2 $Million house, and took out equity lines to buy all new stuff ....

They wrote garbage paper to everyone with a heartbeat that could sign a form, intentionally removed all reasonable lending standards, and even invented a new repayment scheme to prolong the scam long enough to sandbag the securities market with a Gajillion dollars of bogus paper.

It's fucking fraud. They took the nation for everything. Nobody went to jail.
Link Posted: 10/21/2014 10:43:40 AM EDT
[#40]
the problem is the perfect storm of corruption still exist and may never correct or burst.

1. banks can hold foreclosed property with no risk and can refuse any buyer that qualifies for low interest.

2. higher priced homes mean higher property taxes for county/city .gov

3. real estate agents take a cut of the price so they will push for higher prices.

4. politicians promise to return value to the homes.

it was the same from 1996-2007 there are no winners if the prices come down  except for new buyers who are the target to be exploited by the system.  until the buyers boycott the BS it will continue.  but if they do begin to boycott or stop buying the chinese, europeans, sauds, will come in and buy it up.  

Link Posted: 10/21/2014 11:43:00 AM EDT
[#41]
I don't know.  My house, purchased in 2006, cost me $260k.  It's worth between $160-175k now.
Link Posted: 10/21/2014 11:48:34 AM EDT
[#42]
Kinda hope you're right, I'll be in the market for a new hours in a year or so.
Link Posted: 10/21/2014 11:53:43 AM EDT
[#43]
Status Quo
Link Posted: 10/21/2014 12:14:29 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Oh, and before you give me the negative comments of living in fear.  I make a very good living off of real estate whether it is going up (representing builders) or down (bankruptcy work).  So I will win in either scenario.  But you cannot fool math, so anyone who disagrees with me please include some numbers instead of statements like "the market is different now" or "we are in a new paradigm" or "fundamentals have changed."
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I'll say that I agree with you, especially the fact that Math doesnt lie.  but there is one thing I dont get..    when I bought my first house back in 2005 I knew mathematically that house prices were partially based on comps that included cash to the buyer for low down payment folks (such as myself) - I bought for 261,000  but the line item said 265,000 with 4k back to me, so the next guy thinks the right comp is 265.. its all part of how the bad lending drove up pricing.  and I knew this back in 2005 and knew for a fact it couldnt last forever but I caved to the pressure of everyone around me saying it was ok and it wasn't going to happen etc..  then it did and I told you so didn't fix my underwater loan.  However..  there is a difference now from them.. back then the dollar was strong and there was a gap between the cost to build and the price of a house.  "Value" is and always has been a fluid thing in real estate, and it was unhinged back then.  but now I see builders building and their "new" pricing is higher than market and I hear from sources that the costs of materials are higher due to the weakened dollar and so value is more hinged to the cost to build.  forget detroit where you can buy a house for $5 but the cost of materials to rebuild would be $100,000 and the land is worth -99,995 due to "you will be killed living here", because that is an edge case... mainstream America, it simply costs more now due to inflation..  as inflation goes up pricing - are you saying this is a bubble or just that it is bad policy?



Link Posted: 10/21/2014 12:16:55 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Either you only owe $25k or your calculations are messed up.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Our house is still less than what it was pre '08.
Couldn't get a refi because the value was less than we owed.



Refi is a fucking joke.


I've got an 8.25% rate , was told I qualified for a new rate of 3.25 %

Would lower my payment by a whopping $75 a month

And it would only cost me $ 10,000

what the fuck ever


Either you only owe $25k or your calculations are messed up.



Negative ghost rider, ive had multiple "offers" that are with $50 a month of each other.

The new rules for PMI insurance ensure that only rich people with mcmansions are allowed to refi.

Since I have a small house the value never recovered , hence my loan to value would be 90%

That results in a massive pmi paynent.

I tried VA loan last time about a month ago. Current payment of 768 , new payment689.

VA loan plus closing costs add 10k  to loan. Its a fucking racket . I owe 14 more years . Fuck them , im not going 10k more into debt to save $75
Link Posted: 10/21/2014 1:34:55 PM EDT
[#46]
Judging from the posts in this thread, I'm glad I'm not underwater.  

Link Posted: 10/21/2014 9:57:10 PM EDT
[#47]
On the west coast you have Asian investors buying RE, keeping inventory low and prices high.
Link Posted: 10/21/2014 10:00:14 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
On the west coast you have Asian investors buying RE, keeping inventory low and prices high.
View Quote

They're dumping their dollars for tangibles.  Look up WANDA.  Chinatowns in every town.
Link Posted: 10/21/2014 10:03:36 PM EDT
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I don't know.  My house, purchased in 2006, cost me $260k.  It's worth between $160-175k now.
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We must have bought in the same development.
Link Posted: 10/21/2014 10:14:08 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Don't ruin his doomsaying with logic.  
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Quoted:
Quoted:
If you seriously believed in the hyperinflation scenario, you too would be addicted to credit.  I know I'd be leveraging all I could to buy as much as I could.



Don't ruin his doomsaying with logic.  


Even if hyperinflation was kicking off, never underestimate the banks ability to screw you.
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