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Posted: 7/23/2014 8:07:17 PM EDT
Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012 July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news. Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years. "If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado. [...] Before July 2012, when researchers talked about extreme solar storms their touchstone was the iconic Carrington Event of Sept. 1859, named after English astronomer Richard Carrington who actually saw the instigating flare with his own eyes. In the days that followed his observation, a series of powerful CMEs hit Earth head-on with a potency not felt before or since. Intense geomagnetic storms ignited Northern Lights as far south as Cuba and caused global telegraph lines to spark, setting fire to some telegraph offices and thus disabling the 'Victorian Internet." A similar storm today could have a catastrophic effect. According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers damaged by such a storm might take years to repair. "In my view the July 2012 storm was in all respects at least as strong as the 1859 Carrington event," says Baker. "The only difference is, it missed." In February 2014, physicist Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc. published a paper in Space Weather entitled "On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events." In it, he analyzed records of solar storms going back 50+ years. By extrapolating the frequency of ordinary storms to the extreme, he calculated the odds that a Carrington-class storm would hit Earth in the next ten years. The answer: 12%. "Initially, I was quite surprised that the odds were so high, but the statistics appear to be correct," says Riley. "It is a sobering figure." -- |
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[#1]
Some scary shit when you think about it. Odds are pretty small of it happening, but we would be up shit creek in a big way if power and communication went down for an extended period nationwide.
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[#2]
I can't imagine the civil unrest something like this would cause.
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[#3]
What if Kate Beckinsale started hitting on me while my wife was around? What if...
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[#5]
I wish it would happen, so we could see how vulnerable we really are.
I don't think it would be as bad as the pundits say. Hardly anything ever is. |
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[#6]
When my cabin / house project is finally completed, my generator and inverters will be in a buried connex. I am hoping that would should from something like this, in the off chance it ever happened.
Aviator |
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[#8]
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[#9]
Quoted:
When my cabin / house project is finally completed, my generator and inverters will be in a buried connex. I am hoping that would should from something like this, in the off chance it ever happened. View Quote Down here on the earth's surface, geomagnetic storms produce very low-frequency "E3" magnetic fields that only affect very long electrical conductors (i.e., transmission lines between power plants and substations, gas pipelines, etc.). Unlike nuclear EMP, they don't damage anything that isn't connected to a conductor many miles long. So, your inverters and generator are unlikely to be damaged, regardless of where they're located. |
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[#12]
Of all the crazy doomsday scenarios, this one concerns me the most.
That said, we would have a decent amount of warning. Lots of shit could be shut down and disconnected for a while until it passed.
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[#13]
Quoted:
Of all the crazy doomsday scenarios, this one concerns me the most. That said, we would have a decent amount of warning. Lots of shit could be shut down and disconnected for a while until it passed. View Quote I think they will invariably fuck it up, though. And that's a "will", as in it's going to happen sooner or later. The odds aren't actually that small at all. |
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[#14]
Coast to Coast AM was discussing this a night or so ago.
The cost to harden the national grid was said to be something like $4 billion... and the cost of correction after a solar event would run in the multiple trillions, not to mention the huge numbers of deaths from lack of medical treatment, loss of medicine, water, sanitation, AC (for those in the south), and pretty much everything else. And that's assuming that the entire civilized world wouldn't collapse. |
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[#15]
Quoted:
Of all the crazy doomsday scenarios, this one concerns me the most. That said, we would have a decent amount of warning. Lots of shit could be shut down and disconnected for a while until it passed. View Quote From what I've read and heard, a lot of things still won't matter if they're connected or disconnected. They'd have to be grounded, hardened, or stuffed in a Faraday cage. |
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[#16]
Quoted:
From what I've read and heard, a lot of things still won't matter if they're connected or disconnected. They'd have to be grounded, hardened, or stuffed in a Faraday cage. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
Of all the crazy doomsday scenarios, this one concerns me the most. That said, we would have a decent amount of warning. Lots of shit could be shut down and disconnected for a while until it passed. From what I've read and heard, a lot of things still won't matter if they're connected or disconnected. They'd have to be grounded, hardened, or stuffed in a Faraday cage. That is my understanding as well. Those emp protection bags you can get also would not be adequate shielding against a Carrington level event or an actual emp from a icbm. A low level or medium should be ok though. |
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[#18]
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[#19]
Quoted:
I'm prepared. I heard that all the transformers would be blown. http://i.imgur.com/ztY2OLq.jpg View Quote |
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[#20]
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[#21]
If the event was hard enough to knock out power for an extended period of time, months or more... Would nuke reactors have enough resources to run the emergency pumps?
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[#22]
Quoted:
From what I've read and heard, a lot of things still won't matter if they're connected or disconnected. They'd have to be grounded, hardened, or stuffed in a Faraday cage. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
Of all the crazy doomsday scenarios, this one concerns me the most. That said, we would have a decent amount of warning. Lots of shit could be shut down and disconnected for a while until it passed. From what I've read and heard, a lot of things still won't matter if they're connected or disconnected. They'd have to be grounded, hardened, or stuffed in a Faraday cage. No. From Wikipedia: Because of the similarity between solar-induced geomagnetic storms and nuclear E3, it has become common to refer to solar-induced geomagnetic storms as "solar EMP."[26] "Solar EMP", however, does not include an E1 or E2 component. E1 and E2 fields are the only components that affect relatively small devices. Solar flares don't produce them. Solar flares only produce E3 fields, which generate geomagnetically induced currents in extremely long electrical conductors (i.e., many miles long). They don't affect small devices like portable generators, inverters, personal electronics, red dot scopes, electronic locks on safes, etc. "Faraday Cages" are useless against solar flares, because any device small enough to fit inside a practical Faraday Cage is too small to be affected by solar flares anyway. |
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[#23]
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[#25]
Quoted: I'm prepared. I heard that all the transformers would be blown. http://i.imgur.com/ztY2OLq.jpg View Quote |
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[#26]
Well, I made it through the first sentence. The one which made no sense whatsoever. They had "instant worldwide headlines" in the 18th century?
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[#27]
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[#28]
Oh Jeez, here's another thing the doomsday guys will masterbate to while they're building their bunkers/cabins.
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[#29]
I remember this. It was a close call for sure. Very little MSM coverage. If it weren't for the fact that I read a lot of science and astronomy publications I probably wouldn't have known about it either. Modern civilization is far more fragile than most people could possibly imagine and there are some very real threats out there.
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[#30]
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[#31]
Quoted: Quoted: When my cabin / house project is finally completed, my generator and inverters will be in a buried connex. I am hoping that would should from something like this, in the off chance it ever happened. Aviator Ground the connex. Think he's got that part covered... Nick |
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[#32]
Quoted:
If the event was hard enough to knock out power for an extended period of time, months or more... Would nuke reactors have enough resources to run the emergency pumps? View Quote Assuming the control systems weren't fried? Probably for as long as their fuel held out, but who knows how much they keep on hand? Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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[#33]
Quoted:
I'm prepared. I heard that all the transformers would be blown. http://i.imgur.com/ztY2OLq.jpg View Quote Killed it. |
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[#34]
Quoted:
Think he's got that part covered... Nick View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
When my cabin / house project is finally completed, my generator and inverters will be in a buried connex. I am hoping that would should from something like this, in the off chance it ever happened. Aviator Ground the connex. Think he's got that part covered... Nick He is well grounded in the basics of EMP preparedness. |
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[#35]
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[#37]
Quoted:
I'm prepared. I heard that all the transformers would be blown. http://i.imgur.com/ztY2OLq.jpg View Quote Good one. |
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[#38]
At least the first couple days we would have big BBQ's to cook all the meat in the no longer working freezers. And drink the last of the cold beer for a while. Day 2 or 3 after all the cold beer is gone things could start getting interesting. |
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[#39]
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[#40]
Quoted:
At least the first couple days we would have big BBQ's to cook all the meat in the no longer working freezers. And drink the last of the cold beer for a while. Day 2 or 3 after all the cold beer is gone things could start getting interesting. View Quote You don't have much to worry about. Texas is too far south. The farther North you go the more damage to the grid. Reading this is sobering: http://www.iac.es/adjuntos/prensa/Space%20weather%20severe%20events.pdf This is a state by state chart of transformer failure that would be caused by a repeat of a 1921 solar storm. New Hampshire wins the jackpot at 97% damage: http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2009/01/21/21jan_severespaceweather_resources/transformermap.jpg It would take years to get the grid back. |
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[#41]
Quoted: You don't have much to worry about. Texas is too far south. The farther North you go the more damage to the grid. Reading this is sobering: http://www.iac.es/adjuntos/prensa/Space%20weather%20severe%20events.pdf This is a state by state chart of transformer failure that would be caused by a repeat of a 1921 solar storm. New Hampshire wins the jackpot at 97% damage: http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2009/01/21/21jan_severespaceweather_resources/transformermap.jpg It would take years to get the grid back. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: At least the first couple days we would have big BBQ's to cook all the meat in the no longer working freezers. And drink the last of the cold beer for a while. Day 2 or 3 after all the cold beer is gone things could start getting interesting. You don't have much to worry about. Texas is too far south. The farther North you go the more damage to the grid. Reading this is sobering: http://www.iac.es/adjuntos/prensa/Space%20weather%20severe%20events.pdf This is a state by state chart of transformer failure that would be caused by a repeat of a 1921 solar storm. New Hampshire wins the jackpot at 97% damage: http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2009/01/21/21jan_severespaceweather_resources/transformermap.jpg It would take years to get the grid back. |
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[#42]
Quoted:
You don't have much to worry about. Texas is too far south. The farther North you go the more damage to the grid. Reading this is sobering: http://www.iac.es/adjuntos/prensa/Space%20weather%20severe%20events.pdf This is a state by state chart of transformer failure that would be caused by a repeat of a 1921 solar storm. New Hampshire wins the jackpot at 97% damage: http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2009/01/21/21jan_severespaceweather_resources/transformermap.jpg It would take years to get the grid back. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
At least the first couple days we would have big BBQ's to cook all the meat in the no longer working freezers. And drink the last of the cold beer for a while. Day 2 or 3 after all the cold beer is gone things could start getting interesting. You don't have much to worry about. Texas is too far south. The farther North you go the more damage to the grid. Reading this is sobering: http://www.iac.es/adjuntos/prensa/Space%20weather%20severe%20events.pdf This is a state by state chart of transformer failure that would be caused by a repeat of a 1921 solar storm. New Hampshire wins the jackpot at 97% damage: http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2009/01/21/21jan_severespaceweather_resources/transformermap.jpg It would take years to get the grid back. That is prepper's fap material right there... p |
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[#43]
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[#44]
Quoted: Indeed. Those liberal fuckers in South Carolina would be particularly hard hit. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: My God, it's like an anti-liberal storm! Indeed. Those liberal fuckers in South Carolina would be particularly hard hit. Big picture |
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[#45]
Please correct me if I am wrong:
Don't these CME's have extremely large wave lengths? Basically our long runs of power lines act as antennae and back feed the system blowing out the transformers. Wouldn't someone setup off the grid with Solar Power and / or Generators be immune to the affects, since they do not have these long power runs to receive the energy? |
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[#46]
Quoted:
]Well...omelettes and eggs. Big picture View Quote As for eggs this may be a case of too many eggs in one complicated basket. I wondered what made some aspects of the grid more easily effected. I guess NH must have a greater than normal reliance on Extra High Voltage transformers and transmission lines. I gather these EHV transformers are enormous, complex, and expensive. There is a plan to try to quickly build and deploy stop-gap transformers. The manufacturer successfully tested this in a mock rapid deployment: http://www.abb.us/cawp/seitp202/9a9f00ef6e90dd00c1257a7e0042e142.aspx Anyhoo, there would be plenty of sad panda liberals sitting in the dark. That is something, I guess. |
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[#47]
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[#48]
Quoted:
Please correct me if I am wrong: Don't these CME's have extremely large wave lengths? Basically our long runs of power lines act as antennae and back feed the system blowing out the transformers. Wouldn't someone setup off the grid with Solar Power and / or Generators be immune to the affects, since they do not have these long power runs to receive the energy? View Quote Am curious about this myself... Aviator |
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[#49]
Quoted:
I'm prepared. I heard that all the transformers would be blown. http://i.imgur.com/ztY2OLq.jpg View Quote Out Standing!!!! |
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[#50]
Quoted:
Please correct me if I am wrong: Don't these CME's have extremely large wave lengths? Basically our long runs of power lines act as antennae and back feed the system blowing out the transformers. Wouldn't someone setup off the grid with Solar Power and / or Generators be immune to the affects, since they do not have these long power runs to receive the energy? View Quote That's my understanding. |
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