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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:12:46 PM EDT
[#1]
China will collapse too. Their real estate market is more over leveraged than our own. When it goes, there'll be a lot of new poor people there.
The question in my mind is will the Commies be able to prevent a revolution when that happens? If they do, China stands to emerge as the world powerhouse this century. One thing China has that we don't have here: savings and gold. Regarding savings, they can become a consumer economy much we were in the '50s. On the latter, they're very secretive as to the quantity they hold in their vaults. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:14:31 PM EDT
[#2]
wait. So, we borrowed money from them. But they have more debt than us? Who the hell lent them the money to lend us?
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:15:47 PM EDT
[#3]
Man they even copy our debt.
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:16:15 PM EDT
[#4]
Quoted:
The China-US sorpasso is looming. I do not mean the much-exaggerated moment when China’s GDP will overtake America's GDP – which may not happen in the lifetime of anybody reading this blog post – as China slows to more pedestrian growth rates (an objective of premier Li Keqiang.) The sorpasso may instead be the ominous moment when China’s debt ratios overtake the arch-debtor itself. I had presumed that this inflection point was still a very long way off, but a new report from Stephen Green at Standard Chartered argues that China’s aggregate debt level has reached 251 per cent of GDP, as of June. This is up 20 percentage points of GDP since late 2013. The total is much higher than normal estimates, though it tallies with what I have heard privately from officials at the IMF and the BIS. Mr Green – a highly-respected China veteran – includes total social financing (TSF), offshore cross-border bank borrowing (a story that we are going to hear a lot about), bond issuance, shadow banking of various kinds, and government debt. The ratio has risen by 100 percentage points of GDP over the last five years. As Fitch has argued out in the past, this is more than double the rise seen in Japan over the five years before the Nikkei bubble burst in 1990, or in the US before subprime blew up in 2007, or in Korea before the Asian financial crisis. It is the speed of the rise that worries credit rating agencies and regulators – including many at the Chinese central bank – as much as the volume itself. Though China is scary on both fronts. It has pushed debt to $26 trillion, more than the entire commercial banking systems of the US and Japan combined. The scale obviously has global ramifications. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027691/chinas-terrifying-debt-ratios-poised-to-breeze-past-us-levels/ When every nation's credit is shitty, the best of the worst will be the new standard for good credit. This is so retarded. ZOMG! China has debt! WTF. This is news? |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:17:02 PM EDT
[#5]
...and the meek shall inherit the... debt. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:18:11 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Man they even copy our debt. Zing! |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:20:01 PM EDT
[#7]
And now they have an outbreak of beubonic plague
Lots of good stuff going on around the globe huh? |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:21:26 PM EDT
[#8]
Would they even dare to call in our debts that we owe them?
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:23:18 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
One thing China has that we don't have here: savings and gold. Regarding savings, they can become a consumer economy much we were in the '50s. A lot of those savings are people who see a trainwreck coming. "China will get old before they can get rich" Their demographics are completely fucked. As soon as the single child policy era parents start racking up serious medical bills and drop out of the workplace, which is soon, Chinese social program spending is going to go ballistic at the same time the ratio of productive workers to geezers flips over hard. Economic shitstorm. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:24:19 PM EDT
[#10]
They live in interesting times
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And now they have an outbreak of beubonic plague Lots of good stuff going on around the globe huh? |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:29:40 PM EDT
[#11]
One of my econ profs in college believed that most of their major state backed enterprises had an interwoven tangle of bad debt and phony assets that would collapse their economy if exposed. A giant heap of phony assets propped up to cover the losses that resulted from poor planning, wasted projects, and old fashioned corruption.
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:34:10 PM EDT
[#12]
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us.
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:34:51 PM EDT
[#13]
Seeing things like workers striking in China gives me hope that the unions will see the same opportunity that big business does and will take advantage at a higher rate using what they have learned here.
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:35:59 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
wait. So, we borrowed money from them. But they have more debt than us? Who the hell lent them the money to lend us? Fiat currency bro, we are all borrowing from our grand children. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:38:27 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: wait. So, we borrowed money from them. But they have more debt than us? Who the hell lent them the money to lend us? |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:40:23 PM EDT
[#16]
This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it. 
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:41:03 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Communist China? |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:43:40 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Ghost cities? Shit tons of investment in Africa? |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:44:17 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Local/regional government has been borrowing money to build empty cities and unused infrastructure that no one can afford because that counts as GDP growth and that's a major part of moving up the party ladder to where the real money is (plus they collect bajillions in kickbacks, obviously). Individuals have been borrowing to buy empty houses and apartments in the empty cities hoping to sell to the people who aren't coming because they're rightly terrified of being broke when they age and government has been pumping the real estate bubble to mind boggling proportions. What could possibly go wrong? |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:48:58 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Man they even copy our debt. **Golf clap** |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:49:52 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Local/regional government has been borrowing money to build empty cities and unused infrastructure that no one can afford because that counts as GDP growth and that's a major part of moving up the party ladder to where the real money is (plus they collect bajillions in kickbacks, obviously). Individuals have been borrowing to buy empty houses and apartments in the empty cities hoping to sell to the people who aren't coming because they're rightly terrified of being broke when they age and government has been pumping the real estate bubble to mind boggling proportions. What could possibly go wrong? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Local/regional government has been borrowing money to build empty cities and unused infrastructure that no one can afford because that counts as GDP growth and that's a major part of moving up the party ladder to where the real money is (plus they collect bajillions in kickbacks, obviously). Individuals have been borrowing to buy empty houses and apartments in the empty cities hoping to sell to the people who aren't coming because they're rightly terrified of being broke when they age and government has been pumping the real estate bubble to mind boggling proportions. What could possibly go wrong?  |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:51:06 PM EDT
[#22]
But but but everyone tells me China is way richer than us and they have all of our debt and could ruin us if they called in that debt!!!!
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:55:02 PM EDT
[#23]
Peak Harbor Freight.
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:55:09 PM EDT
[#24]
Ho Lee Fuk.
Tell them to print mo money. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:58:27 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We did? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
wait. So, we borrowed money from them. But they have more debt than us? Who the hell lent them the money to lend us? 
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Posted: 7/23/2014 5:58:34 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Communist China? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Communist China? They don't seem very communist. Totalitarian, yes. Quoted:
Quoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Local/regional government has been borrowing money to build empty cities and unused infrastructure that no one can afford because that counts as GDP growth and that's a major part of moving up the party ladder to where the real money is (plus they collect bajillions in kickbacks, obviously). Individuals have been borrowing to buy empty houses and apartments in the empty cities hoping to sell to the people who aren't coming because they're rightly terrified of being broke when they age and government has been pumping the real estate bubble to mind boggling proportions. What could possibly go wrong? That makes sense. They'll probably just murder anyone who complains when the bubble pops. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:01:42 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Zing! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Man they even copy our debt. Zing! And when it crashes it's really going to be SHTF in China. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:01:58 PM EDT
[#28]
So ...exactly how many gold-plated titanium Chinese Panda's would it take to pay off their debt?
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:03:48 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. 
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:04:29 PM EDT
[#30]
Imperialism/ feudalist conquering will relieve some of the debt.
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:06:08 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Check out the modern railroad they built to the far West provinces; that one didn't come cheap. Nor that humungous dam. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:06:26 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us.
ETA: Quoted:
Quoted:
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Check out the modern railroad they built to the far West provinces; that one didn't come cheap. Nor that humungous dam. That is what I was wondering about. Infrastructure like highways, dams and heavy rail usually pays nice dividends. Pork filled boondoggle projects like the ever popular ghost cities, not so much. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:11:52 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So ...exactly how many gold-plated titanium Chinese Panda's would it take to pay off their debt? they wont pay it....they will simply walk away from it......tell their debtors to pound sand |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:17:07 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Would they even dare to call in our debts that we owe them? I don't see what good it would do them. If nothing else, I would think it would send the markets into a tail spin, since it would demonstrate what a sham we've been living for the past 50 or so years. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:23:12 PM EDT
[#35]
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:23:26 PM EDT
[#36]
This thread makes me feel,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, better!
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:24:46 PM EDT
[#37]
So basing your entire economic model on selling cheap, high volume consumer goods BELOW cost was actually a bad idea.
Who'd a thunk it???
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:26:35 PM EDT
[#38]
What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. Long Dong missiles... lots and lots of Long Dongs. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:30:42 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We did? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
wait. So, we borrowed money from them. But they have more debt than us? Who the hell lent them the money to lend us? Damn it took me a minute, good one |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:35:32 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
One of my econ profs in college believed that most of their major state backed enterprises had an interwoven tangle of bad debt and phony assets that would collapse their economy if exposed. A giant heap of phony assets propped up to cover the losses that resulted from poor planning, wasted projects, and old fashioned corruption. This is sort of reminiscent of the pre-war zaibatsu and later keiretsu in Japan which started to come unglued in the recession beginning in the 1990s. The Chicoms are really cracking down on social media. Perhaps trying to stay ahead of the curve and tamp down unrest should things head south. Back in the '80s Japan Inc. was going to buy up the US. The real estate under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was supposed to be worth more than Montana, or some such bull. These things have a way of reverting to the mean. 
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:37:21 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
wait. So, we borrowed money from them. But they have more debt than us? Who the hell lent them the money to lend us? Satan. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:39:50 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What are they wasting all that money on? I didn't think they had a welfare state like us. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:41:14 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
wait. So, we borrowed money from them. But they have more debt than us? Who the hell lent them the money to lend us? We did |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:44:31 PM EDT
[#44]
You know, people used to think that when and if the US economy went into the shitter, that Japan would be the preeminent economic power. Then they thought that it would be Europe. Then they thought that it would be China.
But the truth is, the global economy is so interconnected that if we go down, we're taking everyone with us and there will BE NO ECONOMIC POWER TO PULL US OUT OF IT. That's almost scarier than China becoming the bigshots. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:53:05 PM EDT
[#45]
Soooo.....
We're on fire and hurtling toward the sun, but they're overtaking us? Ok. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 6:54:16 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
China will collapse too. Their real estate market is more over leveraged than our own. When it goes, there'll be a lot of new poor people there. The question in my mind is will the Commies be able to prevent a revolution when that happens? If they do, China stands to emerge as the world powerhouse this century. One thing China has that we don't have here: savings and gold. Regarding savings, they can become a consumer economy much we were in the '50s. On the latter, they're very secretive as to the quantity they hold in their vaults. Nice, does that mean I can sale them cheap goods from my sweat shop full of mex-e-cans? |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 7:01:56 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Nice, does that mean I can sale them cheap goods from my sweat shop full of mex-e-cans? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
China will collapse too. Their real estate market is more over leveraged than our own. When it goes, there'll be a lot of new poor people there. The question in my mind is will the Commies be able to prevent a revolution when that happens? If they do, China stands to emerge as the world powerhouse this century. One thing China has that we don't have here: savings and gold. Regarding savings, they can become a consumer economy much we were in the '50s. On the latter, they're very secretive as to the quantity they hold in their vaults. Nice, does that mean I can sale them cheap goods from my sweat shop full of mex-e-cans? Only if it's cheaper for your Mex-e-cans can produce them cheaper than the slave labor over there. As another member said, it's Peak-Harbor Freight or more close to home for moar Americans, Peak-Wally World. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 7:05:57 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Only if it's cheaper for your Mex-e-cans can produce them cheaper than the slave labor over there. As another member said, it's Peak-Harbor Freight or more close to home for moar Americans, Peak-Wally World. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
China will collapse too. Their real estate market is more over leveraged than our own. When it goes, there'll be a lot of new poor people there. The question in my mind is will the Commies be able to prevent a revolution when that happens? If they do, China stands to emerge as the world powerhouse this century. One thing China has that we don't have here: savings and gold. Regarding savings, they can become a consumer economy much we were in the '50s. On the latter, they're very secretive as to the quantity they hold in their vaults. Nice, does that mean I can sale them cheap goods from my sweat shop full of mex-e-cans? Only if it's cheaper for your Mex-e-cans can produce them cheaper than the slave labor over there. As another member said, it's Peak-Harbor Freight or more close to home for moar Americans, Peak-Wally World. Right, if what you're saying is true that just might be the case in the future. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 7:06:15 PM EDT
[#49]
I always heard this from scholars that knew a lot about the current Chinese system. The shadow of hardcore Maoists leers over everything. And when things snap, that shadow will retake things.
Back to bicycles, pig iron backyard plants, communal farms, and the end of exorbitant metropolitan living. |
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Posted: 7/23/2014 7:09:22 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: wait. So, we borrowed money from them. But they have more debt than us? Who the hell lent them the money to lend us? its a pyramid scheme of perpetual motion. |
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