User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 11:29:27 AM EDT
[#1]
(Reuters) - Canadian drugmaker Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corp has begun limited manufacturing of a therapeutic targeting the Ebola-Guinea virus.
The pharmaceutical company said on Tuesday that the new drug, part of its TKM-Ebola program, would be available by early December but did not specify how many doses it was making. Tekmira was not available for comment on the therapeutic, including whether it was manufacturing a drug or vaccine. Tekmira's investigational new drug application to U.S. regulators for TKM-Ebola remains on partial clinical hold, with the issue expected to be resolved in the quarter. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 11:43:54 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Let me consult my spreadsheet. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Here's an estimate of air travel from Liberia to destinations that account for 89% of international travel from Liberia. It uses the abovementioned CDC estimates, and borrows travel information from an article published in The Lancet yesterday. The Lancet authors also factored in a 51% reduction in travel from Liberia, whereas the chart below uses the full 2013 travel patterns. The Lancet article uses a fixed number of active cases (1,707 for Liberia) in their projections - this is the "sum of the number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases in the past 21 days to estimate active cases as of Sept 21, 2014". Using a static case count for a situation that is experiencing exponential growth seems to be a shortcoming of the Lancet article, but they provide enough information such that the reader can adjust for growth and under reporting. Thus, I took their work one step further by incorporated the CDC time-based projections. My model is projecting 4,165 symptomatic cases, plus 2,895 pre-symptomatic cases for 9/21 - this correlates to 10,169 cumulative cases for Liberia on 9/21 (as a point of reference, Wikipedia lists a cumulative case count of =3,280 for 9/21) http://i1186.photobucket.com/albums/z362/0471861731/2014/20141017%20EZ/Ebolagraph20141021B_zps074c45ec.jpg I bet you got crazy amounts of pussy in high school.  Let me consult my spreadsheet.  Thanks for crunching numbers for us, and for the entertainment.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 2:02:32 PM EDT
[#3]
Latest WHO report is up. They changed the format, making it less easy to read, at least for my old eyes.
Apparently someone in Liberia realized they needed to report their numbers to the UN to maintain credibility. Whether these numbers are accurate or not is another story.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 2:37:26 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Latest WHO report is up. They changed the format, making it less easy to read, at least for my old eyes. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137091/1/roadmapsitrep22Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1 Apparently someone in Liberia realized they needed to report their numbers to the UN to maintain credibility. Whether these numbers are accurate or not is another story. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Latest WHO report is up. They changed the format, making it less easy to read, at least for my old eyes. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137091/1/roadmapsitrep22Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1 Apparently someone in Liberia realized they needed to report their numbers to the UN to maintain credibility. Whether these numbers are accurate or not is another story. EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP SITUATION REPORT 6
HEALTH CARE WORKERS A total of 443 health care workers (HCWs) are known to have been infected with EVD up to the end of 19 October. 244 HCWs have died (table 2). WHO is undertaking extensive investigations to determine the cause of infection in each case. Early indications are that a substantial proportion of infections occurred outside the context of Ebola treatment and care. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 6:52:54 PM EDT
[#5]
WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 7:39:56 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 7:50:43 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Your discussion of the deaths versus new infections is true, although lost on most. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 8:07:31 PM EDT
[#8]
If you play around with the numbers, Ebola could kill off the population of a country with no more than 30% of the remaining population infected symptomatic at any one time. Creepy when you think about it.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/22/2014 11:16:49 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Sierra Leone's death rate demonstrates that: They have seen a rapid rise in cases, but a slower rise in deaths. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 12:08:49 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. I think it going to be higher than 25k-45k if the inflection is between 80k-100k. Healthcare workers can't take care of the current inflected. So the inflected will have to roll the dice without any help from the healthcare worker. At the current 70% death rate it doesn't look good for the inflected. I won't be surprise if the healthcare workers turn into grave diggers to prevent other sickness from happening. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 1:41:23 PM EDT
[#11]
A potential exported case from W. Africa to Lebanon ...
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/10/23/lebanon-reports-first-suspected-case-ebola-virus/?intcmp=latestnews It seems unlikely that this is an actual case, but it does help somewhat validate the air travel patterns shown on the previous page of this thread. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 2:48:04 PM EDT
[#12]
Extensive background documents from a meeting that took place today at the World Health Organization (WHO) have provided new details about exactly what it will take to test, produce, and bankroll Ebola vaccines, which could be a potential game changer in the epidemic.
ScienceInsider obtained materials that vaccinemakers, governments, and WHO provided to the 100 or so participants at a meeting on “access and financing” of Ebola vaccines. The documents put hard numbers on what until now have been somewhat fuzzy academic discussions. And they make clear to the attendees—who include representatives from governments, industry, philanthropies, and nongovernmental organizations—that while testing and production are moving forward at record speed, knotty issues remain. At the meeting, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) of Rixensart, Belgium, which has vaccine furthest in development, spelled out how it might scale up production in parallel with the safety and efficacy trials now under way so that the product could be ready for wider distribution by April if warranted. The company expects to have preliminary data in November from phase I studies that analyze safety and immune response in small numbers of people not at risk of contracting Ebola. If those data are positive, efficacy trials could start as early as January in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, the three West African countries hard hit by the epidemic. Snark bait. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 2:53:52 PM EDT
[#13]
Anyone looking into the suspected case in Mali?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 5:24:42 PM EDT
[#14]
Looks like Mali has it's first confirmed case of ebola.
http://www.rfi.fr/contenu/ticker/premier-cas-ebola-confirme-mali-le-ministere-malien-sante/ |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 5:30:35 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Looks like Mali has it's first confirmed case of ebola. http://www.rfi.fr/contenu/ticker/premier-cas-ebola-confirme-mali-le-ministere-malien-sante/ Quote HistoryQuoted:
Looks like Mali has it's first confirmed case of ebola. http://www.rfi.fr/contenu/ticker/premier-cas-ebola-confirme-mali-le-ministere-malien-sante/ urgent
Posted on 23/10/14 at 23:09 First Ebola cases confirmed in Mali by the Malian Ministry of Health This is a small 2 year old girl from the town of Kayes in the west. She returned to Guinea. Her family took her to the hospital spontaneously after the first symptoms. Analyzes confirmed this Thursday, October 23, she was a carrier of the Ebola virus. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 5:37:48 PM EDT
[#16]
(Reuters) - The Ebola crisis is forcing the American healthcare system to consider the previously unthinkable: withholding some medical interventions because they are too dangerous to doctors and nurses and unlikely to help a patient.
U.S. hospitals have over the years come under criticism for undertaking measures that prolong dying rather than improve patients' quality of life. But the care of the first Ebola patient diagnosed in the United States, who received dialysis and intubation and infected two nurses caring for him, is spurring hospitals and medical associations to develop the first guidelines for what can reasonably be done and what should be withheld. Officials from at least three hospital systems interviewed by Reuters said they were considering whether to withhold individual procedures or leave it up to individual doctors to determine whether an intervention would be performed. Ethics experts say they are also fielding more calls from doctors asking what their professional obligations are to patients if healthcare workers could be at risk. Snark bait. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 5:43:22 PM EDT
[#17]
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 5:45:16 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: (Reuters) - The Ebola crisis is forcing the American healthcare system to consider the previously unthinkable: withholding some medical interventions because they are too dangerous to doctors and nurses and unlikely to help a patient. U.S. hospitals have over the years come under criticism for undertaking measures that prolong dying rather than improve patients' quality of life. But the care of the first Ebola patient diagnosed in the United States, who received dialysis and intubation and infected two nurses caring for him, is spurring hospitals and medical associations to develop the first guidelines for what can reasonably be done and what should be withheld. Officials from at least three hospital systems interviewed by Reuters said they were considering whether to withhold individual procedures or leave it up to individual doctors to determine whether an intervention would be performed. Ethics experts say they are also fielding more calls from doctors asking what their professional obligations are to patients if healthcare workers could be at risk. Snark bait. As I've said prior, this should be mainly about containment, not treatment. Full-blown treatment should be reserved for healthcare workers and VIPs.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 7:03:13 PM EDT
[#19]
I'm going to need a bigger spreadsheet.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 8:37:35 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm going to need a bigger spreadsheet. We'll see what kind of numbers we get tomorrow in the update report. Wednesday's report was the highest total of any report so far. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 8:54:43 PM EDT
[#21]
First Ebola case in Mali.
It's starting to spread beyond the original area. ETA: Someone needs to insert the Beaker gif.... |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 9:57:42 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm going to need a bigger spreadsheet. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 10:08:47 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Full-blown treatment should be reserved for healthcare workers and VIPs. Which one are you? |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 10:10:46 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Your discussion of the deaths versus new infections is true, although lost on most. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Your discussion of the deaths versus new infections is true, although lost on most. Yes it is. Like I have been saying if you take the deaths and divide it by the (deaths plus the survivors, ie. caes that have an outcome) the death rate for this outbreak in west africa is 78% |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 10:18:19 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes it is. Like I have been saying if you take the deaths and divide it by the (deaths plus the survivors, ie. caes that have an outcome) the death rate for this outbreak in west africa is 78% Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Your discussion of the deaths versus new infections is true, although lost on most. Yes it is. Like I have been saying if you take the deaths and divide it by the (deaths plus the survivors, ie. caes that have an outcome) the death rate for this outbreak in west africa is 78% Citing a lower snapshot percentage of deaths makes for happier news reporting than a disease with high mortality but slower burn. That gets a little spookier. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 10:22:40 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I'm going to need a bigger spreadsheet. http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/ham_test_account/internet%20kid%20deal%20with%20it_zpsk4691ftz.gif
Well, if the .gif fits. If I could find my 7th grade yearbook photo, I'd post it - and you would have a coronary. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 10:28:59 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote History |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/23/2014 11:31:17 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes it is. Like I have been saying if you take the deaths and divide it by the (deaths plus the survivors, ie. caes that have an outcome) the death rate for this outbreak in west africa is 78% Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Your discussion of the deaths versus new infections is true, although lost on most. Yes it is. Like I have been saying if you take the deaths and divide it by the (deaths plus the survivors, ie. caes that have an outcome) the death rate for this outbreak in west africa is 78% Cumulative reported deaths divided by cumulative reported cases is currently at 49.1%, but that's because deaths lag new cases. I've tried to fit modeled deaths vs reported deaths using the WHO figures of 9 days for incubation, and 8 days from symptoms to death. I model death rate as the factor of reported cases that result in death, factoring the above lag times. 
If I do a weighted average of the modeled death rate based on reported cases, I get a death rate of 62.7%. But, if you have a 100k cumulative cases with 8 days from symptoms to death, you aren't going to have 62,700 deaths until some 8 days later, but that additional 8 days is 1/3 of the infection's doubling rate. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 4:51:30 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Cumulative reported deaths divided by cumulative reported cases is currently at 49.1%, but that's because deaths lag new cases. I've tried to fit modeled deaths vs reported deaths using the WHO figures of 9 days for incubation, and 8 days from symptoms to death. I model death rate as the factor of reported cases that result in death, factoring the above lag times. http://i1186.photobucket.com/albums/z362/0471861731/2014/20141017%20EZ/Ebolagraph20141023A_zps6a4d7b55.jpg http://i1186.photobucket.com/albums/z362/0471861731/2014/20141017%20EZ/Ebolagraph20141023B_zpsdd119613.jpg http://i1186.photobucket.com/albums/z362/0471861731/2014/20141017%20EZ/Ebolagraph20141023C_zps5bf5198e.jpg If I do a weighted average of the modeled death rate based on reported cases, I get a death rate of 62.7%. But, if you have a 100k cumulative cases with 8 days from symptoms to death, you aren't going to have 62,700 deaths until some 8 days later, but that additional 8 days is 1/3 of the infection's doubling rate. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
WHO said the real death toll is now 15,000. If that is correct than we are looking at over 20k inflected. 80k to 100k by December. How many death is that? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKCN0IB23220141022 Beginning or end of December? A faster doubling rate leads to a lower percentage of dead at any one time when compared to a slower doubling rate - it doesn't mean fewer people die, it just means that new infections outpace deaths. A rough hack is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000 dead, depending on the doubling rate and symptoms-to-death time period - based on the 80-100k figure. Your discussion of the deaths versus new infections is true, although lost on most. Yes it is. Like I have been saying if you take the deaths and divide it by the (deaths plus the survivors, ie. caes that have an outcome) the death rate for this outbreak in west africa is 78% Cumulative reported deaths divided by cumulative reported cases is currently at 49.1%, but that's because deaths lag new cases. I've tried to fit modeled deaths vs reported deaths using the WHO figures of 9 days for incubation, and 8 days from symptoms to death. I model death rate as the factor of reported cases that result in death, factoring the above lag times. http://i1186.photobucket.com/albums/z362/0471861731/2014/20141017%20EZ/Ebolagraph20141023A_zps6a4d7b55.jpg http://i1186.photobucket.com/albums/z362/0471861731/2014/20141017%20EZ/Ebolagraph20141023B_zpsdd119613.jpg http://i1186.photobucket.com/albums/z362/0471861731/2014/20141017%20EZ/Ebolagraph20141023C_zps5bf5198e.jpg If I do a weighted average of the modeled death rate based on reported cases, I get a death rate of 62.7%. But, if you have a 100k cumulative cases with 8 days from symptoms to death, you aren't going to have 62,700 deaths until some 8 days later, but that additional 8 days is 1/3 of the infection's doubling rate. Yes, and as I said back in August, that is exactly why the reports take deaths divided by cases, it is completely inaccurate but gives lower numbers. I think they do it on purpose for the very reason that it looks less scary and most people fall for it. Deaths divided by cases only gives accurate numbers after the outbreak is over. But I was critisized as for saying in was decption done on purpose |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 10:25:53 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes, and as I said back in August, that is exactly why the reports take deaths divided by cases, it is completely inaccurate but gives lower numbers. I think they do it on purpose for the very reason that it looks less scary and most people fall for it. Deaths divided by cases only gives accurate numbers after the outbreak is over. But I was critisized as for saying in was decption done on purpose Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
<cut> Yes, and as I said back in August, that is exactly why the reports take deaths divided by cases, it is completely inaccurate but gives lower numbers. I think they do it on purpose for the very reason that it looks less scary and most people fall for it. Deaths divided by cases only gives accurate numbers after the outbreak is over. But I was critisized as for saying in was decption done on purpose Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by ignorance of calculus. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 11:30:16 AM EDT
[#31]
By Stephanie Nebehay and Kate Kelland GENEVA/LONDON Oct 24 (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) set out plans on Friday for speeding up development and deployment of experimental Ebola vaccines, saying hundreds of thousands of doses should be ready for use in West Africa by the middle of 2015. The Geneva-based United Nations health agency confirmed that two leading vaccine candidates are in human clinical trials, and said another five experimental vaccines were also being developed and would begin clinical trials next year. "Before the end of the first half of 2015 ... we could have available a few hundred thousand doses. That could be 200,000, it could be less or could be more," the WHO's Marie-Paule Kieny told reporters after a meeting in Geneva of industry executives, global health experts, drug regulators and funders. That will get about 1% of the population vaccinated. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 7:38:37 PM EDT
[#32]
Sounds like those 99% protesters are going to be screwed again.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 7:46:21 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That will get about 1% of the population vaccinated. Quote HistoryQuoted:
By Stephanie Nebehay and Kate Kelland GENEVA/LONDON Oct 24 (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) set out plans on Friday for speeding up development and deployment of experimental Ebola vaccines, saying hundreds of thousands of doses should be ready for use in West Africa by the middle of 2015. The Geneva-based United Nations health agency confirmed that two leading vaccine candidates are in human clinical trials, and said another five experimental vaccines were also being developed and would begin clinical trials next year. "Before the end of the first half of 2015 ... we could have available a few hundred thousand doses. That could be 200,000, it could be less or could be more," the WHO's Marie-Paule Kieny told reporters after a meeting in Geneva of industry executives, global health experts, drug regulators and funders. That will get about 1% of the population vaccinated. Ring vaccination can make a little vaccine have a large effect. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 8:02:15 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by ignorance of calculus. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
<cut> Yes, and as I said back in August, that is exactly why the reports take deaths divided by cases, it is completely inaccurate but gives lower numbers. I think they do it on purpose for the very reason that it looks less scary and most people fall for it. Deaths divided by cases only gives accurate numbers after the outbreak is over. But I was critisized as for saying in was decption done on purpose Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by ignorance of calculus. That or people lie because they have an agenda. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 8:36:12 PM EDT
[#35]
No UN update report today, no explanation as to why.
If I were to guess it's probably because their numbers were so incomplete due to delays in reporting they figured it wouldn't be that much different than Wednesday's report -- similar to what happened last Friday, when Liberia didn't report anything. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 8:38:09 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: By Stephanie Nebehay and Kate Kelland GENEVA/LONDON Oct 24 (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) set out plans on Friday for speeding up development and deployment of experimental Ebola vaccines, saying hundreds of thousands of doses should be ready for use in West Africa by the middle of 2015. The Geneva-based United Nations health agency confirmed that two leading vaccine candidates are in human clinical trials, and said another five experimental vaccines were also being developed and would begin clinical trials next year. "Before the end of the first half of 2015 ... we could have available a few hundred thousand doses. That could be 200,000, it could be less or could be more," the WHO's Marie-Paule Kieny told reporters after a meeting in Geneva of industry executives, global health experts, drug regulators and funders. That will get about 1% of the population vaccinated. Ring vaccination can make a little vaccine have a large effect. The problem in this part of Africa won't be so much the amount of vaccine as it will be logistics, plus the superstition and distrust of the local population. And heaven help the vaccine workers if some little kid has a bad reaction and convulses in front of everyone else after getting the shot. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 9:42:49 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The problem in this part of Africa won't be so much the amount of vaccine as it will be logistics, plus the superstition and distrust of the local population. And heaven help the vaccine workers if some little kid has a bad reaction and convulses in front of everyone else after getting the shot. yep getting 10% vaccinated would be a challenge. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/24/2014 10:16:08 PM EDT
[#38]
Almost 170k by December with over half dead.
http://news.yahoo.com/aid-needed-stem-explosion-ebola-liberia-study-234921546.html I doubt they will find a vaccine this fast. It all marketing IMO and false hope. There also a good chance Ebola will change making it almost impossible to vaccinated. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/25/2014 11:27:06 AM EDT
[#39]
Latest report from WHO is finally up, a day late. Official total is over 10,000, but the caveat is Liberia didn't report any new cases; the increase came entirely from Sierra Leone and Guinea. As always, the big question is "how accurate are these numbers?" |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/25/2014 12:46:24 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Latest report from WHO is finally up, a day late. Official total is over 10,000, but the caveat is Liberia didn't report any new cases; the increase came entirely from Sierra Leone and Guinea. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/ As always, the big question is "how accurate are these numbers?" So that is 2 reports where Liberia reports nothing. That just is not good. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/25/2014 1:46:03 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So that is 2 reports where Liberia reports nothing. That just is not good. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Latest report from WHO is finally up, a day late. Official total is over 10,000, but the caveat is Liberia didn't report any new cases; the increase came entirely from Sierra Leone and Guinea. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/ As always, the big question is "how accurate are these numbers?" So that is 2 reports where Liberia reports nothing. That just is not good. My mental image: "Comb the desert!" "We ain't found SHIT!" |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/25/2014 4:35:19 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Latest report from WHO is finally up, a day late. Official total is over 10,000, but the caveat is Liberia didn't report any new cases; the increase came entirely from Sierra Leone and Guinea. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/ As always, the big question is "how accurate are these numbers?" Since 10/19 Liberia: no change Guinea: +13 cases Sierra Leone: +190 cases Liberia: no new cases from a week ago. Guinea: new cases down by 90% from a week ago Sierra Leone: new cases down by 62% from a week ago These latest figures defy expectation. Either 1) we can wrap this whole thing up by end of next week or 2) these nations are now seriously under reporting in fear of being isolated by most of the world |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/25/2014 8:06:22 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Since 10/19 Liberia: no change Guinea: +13 cases Sierra Leone: +190 cases Liberia: no new cases from a week ago. Guinea: new cases down by 90% from a week ago Sierra Leone: new cases down by 62% from a week ago These latest figures defy expectation. Either 1) we can wrap this whole thing up by end of next week or 2) these nations are now seriously under reporting in fear of being isolated by most of the world Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Latest report from WHO is finally up, a day late. Official total is over 10,000, but the caveat is Liberia didn't report any new cases; the increase came entirely from Sierra Leone and Guinea. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/ As always, the big question is "how accurate are these numbers?" Since 10/19 Liberia: no change Guinea: +13 cases Sierra Leone: +190 cases Liberia: no new cases from a week ago. Guinea: new cases down by 90% from a week ago Sierra Leone: new cases down by 62% from a week ago These latest figures defy expectation. Either 1) we can wrap this whole thing up by end of next week or 2) these nations are now seriously under reporting in fear of being isolated by most of the world liberia is not reporting zero new cases. they are just not reporting anything at all. There is no report from liberia. or 3. The local authorities are completely overwhelmed. I guess number 3 |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/25/2014 8:09:24 PM EDT
[#44]
why has the WHO stopped reporting new cases in each country and only cumulative cases?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/25/2014 8:10:45 PM EDT
[#45]
Impossible to know with "Liberia" or hell anywhere else in West Africa for that matter.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/25/2014 11:32:52 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: why has the WHO stopped reporting new cases in each country and only cumulative cases? My guess would be because so many of the new case reports are either "probable" or "suspected" cases they'd have to revise the report so much as to make it even more confusing. The person who maintains their spreadsheets must be overwhelmed. Great job opportunity for L_JE if he wants it.  |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/26/2014 9:28:04 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
My guess would be because so many of the new case reports are either "probable" or "suspected" cases they'd have to revise the report so much as to make it even more confusing. The person who maintains their spreadsheets must be overwhelmed. Great job opportunity for L_JE if he wants it.
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
why has the WHO stopped reporting new cases in each country and only cumulative cases? My guess would be because so many of the new case reports are either "probable" or "suspected" cases they'd have to revise the report so much as to make it even more confusing. The person who maintains their spreadsheets must be overwhelmed. Great job opportunity for L_JE if he wants it.
Hell, with the borders being closed off, this might be the one time in history where specializing in numerical modeling and having a Basic Parachutist badge might be just the ticket! |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/26/2014 12:11:43 PM EDT
[#48]
No worries, it is hard to get, it won't translate to the wider world, the first world has a better healthcare system, they know what to do, they know what works, they know how to contain it. Question: What happens when the West's much vaunted healthcare systems start to fold because the healthcare systems are swamped, the workers fail to show or get infected, public trans grinds to a halt because of fear of infections, produce supply lines collapse. Never mind, I'm too derpy for my own good.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/26/2014 12:14:01 PM EDT
[#49]
So, how many of those US Army supplied and built Ebola hospitals are up and running in West Africa so far?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/26/2014 12:32:51 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So, how many of those US Army supplied and built Ebola hospitals are up and running in West Africa so far? None as far as I know. Which is pretty strong evidence that sending troops to Africa was just a scheme by the Obama Administration to "address" the Ebola outbreak before the election without really doing anything. It appears the military is under orders to minimize exposure to troops until after the election. |
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
