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Link Posted: 9/16/2014 7:47:13 PM EDT
[#1]
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Quoted:
your right...
can we lobby the great goat for an ebola forum?
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I think we should leave ebola in a single thread for the sake of containment.  Give it a whole forum and it will spread like some sort of African hemorrhagic fever.
Link Posted: 9/16/2014 8:02:05 PM EDT
[#2]
Link Posted: 9/16/2014 9:41:56 PM EDT
[#3]
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Quoted:
your right...
can we lobby the great goat for an ebola forum?
View Quote

Hell, this isn't even close to being in the same league as the Gun Runner thread, and it doesn't have it's own forum.
Link Posted: 9/16/2014 9:42:39 PM EDT
[#4]
as long as it does not get into the tech forums, or I will freak out.

I think it already is in the EE
Link Posted: 9/16/2014 10:03:11 PM EDT
[#5]

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The WHO relies on the health ministries of the local countries to feed them numbers.  Right now the health ministries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia are probably on the verge of collapse.



The professional staffs of these ministries are probably stretched to the brink treating patients and tracking contacts; they don't have much time to compile numbers for the management.



The managers and bloated bureaucracies of these ministries are probably not even showing up to work right now, or if they are, they are looting supplies from warehouses to give to their friends/family or sell on the black market at a considerable mark up.



The health ministers and their staffs are busy hitting up western countries for more money and supplies, which means more opportunities for graft.  They aren't going anywhere near any place where there are sick people.



In any case, apparently no one is bothering to forward their numbers to the WHO anymore, so we're not getting updates.



 
Link Posted: 9/17/2014 8:11:19 AM EDT
[#6]
Link Posted: 9/17/2014 9:20:04 AM EDT
[#7]
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Quoted:


pretty much nailed it
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Quoted:
Quoted:

The WHO relies on the health ministries of the local countries to feed them numbers.  Right now the health ministries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia are probably on the verge of collapse.

The professional staffs of these ministries are probably stretched to the brink treating patients and tracking contacts; they don't have much time to compile numbers for the management.

The managers and bloated bureaucracies of these ministries are probably not even showing up to work right now, or if they are, they are looting supplies from warehouses to give to their friends/family or sell on the black market at a considerable mark up.

The health ministers and their staffs are busy hitting up western countries for more money and supplies, which means more opportunities for graft.  They aren't going anywhere near any place where there are sick people.

In any case, apparently no one is bothering to forward their numbers to the WHO anymore, so we're not getting updates.
 


pretty much nailed it


that does not sound like an epidemic in control or being contained,
Link Posted: 9/17/2014 9:45:40 AM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 9/17/2014 9:49:43 AM EDT
[#9]
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Quoted:

i a interested to see exactly what the IS military mission will be there. with 3k boots i suspect this is not going to be just medical.
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So we can say We Did Something Instead Of Just Standing By while everybody who was going to dies anyway because it's West Africa.

Get some research in too.
Link Posted: 9/17/2014 10:13:27 AM EDT
[#10]
Link Posted: 9/17/2014 11:02:54 AM EDT
[#11]
"If we do not act now to stop Ebola, we could be dealing with it for years to come," said Beth Bell, director of the national center for emerging and zoonotic infectious diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At a Senate hearing on Ebola, she noted that 100 CDC staff are working in West Africa and hundreds more are assisting from Atlanta. "The best way to protect the U.S. is to stop the outbreak in West Africa."
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"It's not just Ebola, like the last 25 outbreaks," said Lucey, an adjunct professor of microbiology and immunology at Georgetown University Medical Center. He notes that previous outbreaks occurred in isolated rural areas. "This is urban Ebola. It's unprecedented and it's uncontrolled."
View Quote


Link

Nigeria has 36 dead as of today.




Link Posted: 9/17/2014 12:49:56 PM EDT
[#12]


IMO, this is about Obama's narcissistic need for a 'legacy'. He can't control ISIS, nor the optics surrounding it; but, he can control the optics about ebola. It makes me think the media is over-blowing the epidermic just a bit.



What I'm curious about is the opportunity created for groups similar to Boko Haram and other durkas to kill a few Americans.
Link Posted: 9/17/2014 5:58:49 PM EDT
[#13]
N173PA on the way to Dakar, Senegal.  Tracking
Link Posted: 9/17/2014 7:05:07 PM EDT
[#14]

Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Econometrics by Simulation is not a peer reviewed journal.  It has no impact factor rating.  It's really just his blog, here.



Why model just if the virus gains airborne transmission?  Mutation is random.  The virus doesn't try to mutate to airborne transmission.  A mutation conferring airborne transmission just provides additional fitness to the virus which leads to greater prevalence through spreading.  The virus could mutate toward environmental hardiness too and spread through food, water, and surface contact.

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Quoted:


Quoted:


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Econometrics expert Francis Smart has predicted that if the Ebola virus does mutate into an airborne form, 1.2 million people will die from the disease. Smart, from the Michigan State University, published an article in Econometrics by Stimulation in which he outlined the mechanics of his prediction based on the research done by others. Currently the World Health Organization (WHO) has predicted that Ebola will kill 20,000 people within the next six months. Smart argues that this number is based on the assumption that the virus will not mutate into a version of itself which travels though air.




Link






if it mutates into a power ranger or transformer it will kill more than that.




[email protected]







Econometrics by Simulation is not a peer reviewed journal.  It has no impact factor rating.  It's really just his blog, here.



Why model just if the virus gains airborne transmission?  Mutation is random.  The virus doesn't try to mutate to airborne transmission.  A mutation conferring airborne transmission just provides additional fitness to the virus which leads to greater prevalence through spreading.  The virus could mutate toward environmental hardiness too and spread through food, water, and surface contact.

Analytical Chemistry Expert AR4U has performed simulations that show with nearly 100% certainty that, had my aunt had a dick, she would be my uncle.  You can read about it on my blog, "Half-assed assessments of things I'm not qualified to comment on."

 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 12:09:52 AM EDT
[#15]

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Quoted:
that does not sound like an epidemic in control or being contained,
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Quoted:



Quoted:


Quoted:




The WHO relies on the health ministries of the local countries to feed them numbers.  Right now the health ministries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia are probably on the verge of collapse.



The professional staffs of these ministries are probably stretched to the brink treating patients and tracking contacts; they don't have much time to compile numbers for the management.



The managers and bloated bureaucracies of these ministries are probably not even showing up to work right now, or if they are, they are looting supplies from warehouses to give to their friends/family or sell on the black market at a considerable mark up.



The health ministers and their staffs are busy hitting up western countries for more money and supplies, which means more opportunities for graft.  They aren't going anywhere near any place where there are sick people.



In any case, apparently no one is bothering to forward their numbers to the WHO anymore, so we're not getting updates.

 




pretty much nailed it




that does not sound like an epidemic in control or being contained,


Because in certain areas within those countries, it's not under control.  That doesn't automatically mean it will spread outside those countries.



It would appear the Ebola virus has "found" its perfect niche in the cramped, filthy urban squalor of a typical African city.  While the virus burns itself out when it springs up in sparsely-populated rural areas, it spreads like wildfire when it gains a foothold in crowded, poverty-ridden conditions where people shit in the streets and don't have soap or running water to wash their hands or bodies or clothes and are always on the edge of starvation and have a whole host of other infections and medical conditions which make them weak and more vulnerable to the virus.  It's a disease paradise.



It's a similar situation to when seasonal influenza hits a retirement home or long-term care center:  Lots of potential vulnerable hosts crowded into a single area.  Yet outside that area, relatively few people get ill and even fewer die.



 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 12:14:55 AM EDT
[#16]

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Quoted:







Nigeria has 36 dead as of today.







View Quote


I'd like to see a source for that, because that number is nowhere to be found in your original link, and it's not on that map, either.  There were only 21 cases in Nigeria at the last report.



 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 8:03:32 AM EDT
[#17]
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:44:32 AM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

I'd like to see a source for that, because that number is nowhere to be found in your original link, and it's not on that map, either.  There were only 21 cases in Nigeria at the last report.
 
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Quoted:
Quoted:



Nigeria has 36 dead as of today.




I'd like to see a source for that, because that number is nowhere to be found in your original link, and it's not on that map, either.  There were only 21 cases in Nigeria at the last report.
 


I can't find it either.

I think he mistook the % number for the cases number.
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:51:26 AM EDT
[#19]
Took several days to go from 2400+ to 2500? Worst plague ever. I'm going to the mall.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:53:02 AM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


I can't find it either.

I think he mistook the % number for the cases number.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:



Nigeria has 36 dead as of today.




I'd like to see a source for that, because that number is nowhere to be found in your original link, and it's not on that map, either.  There were only 21 cases in Nigeria at the last report.
 


I can't find it either.

I think he mistook the % number for the cases number.


Could have, now 21+/- in Lagos and Port Harcourt.

Among health care workers,  301 stricken, 144 dead.

Link
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 10:10:30 AM EDT
[#21]
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 10:15:05 AM EDT
[#22]
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Quoted:


on the bright side if things in nigeria continue as they are they could very well be ebola free soon. <assuming no other morons enter the country and their observation protocols for contact continue to work>
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:



Nigeria has 36 dead as of today.




I'd like to see a source for that, because that number is nowhere to be found in your original link, and it's not on that map, either.  There were only 21 cases in Nigeria at the last report.
 


I can't find it either.

I think he mistook the % number for the cases number.


Could have, now 21+/- in Lagos and Port Harcourt.

Among health care workers,  301 stricken, 144 dead.

Link


on the bright side if things in nigeria continue as they are they could very well be ebola free soon. <assuming no other morons enter the country and their observation protocols for contact continue to work>



On a side note...I seem to get less Nigerian spam
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 10:31:37 AM EDT
[#23]
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 12:06:43 PM EDT
[#24]

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Quoted:
Could have, now 21+/- in Lagos and Port Harcourt.



Among health care workers,  301 stricken, 144 dead.



Link

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Quoted:



Quoted:


Quoted:


Quoted:







Nigeria has 36 dead as of today.









I'd like to see a source for that, because that number is nowhere to be found in your original link, and it's not on that map, either.  There were only 21 cases in Nigeria at the last report.

 




I can't find it either.



I think he mistook the % number for the cases number.




Could have, now 21+/- in Lagos and Port Harcourt.



Among health care workers,  301 stricken, 144 dead.



Link

I read that the Doctors Without Borders has 2,000 people working in West Africa, and that's just one organization.  

 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 12:10:29 PM EDT
[#25]

Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Could have, now 21+/- in Lagos and Port Harcourt.



Among health care workers,  301 stricken, 144 dead.



Link

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Quoted:



Quoted:


Quoted:


Quoted:







Nigeria has 36 dead as of today.









I'd like to see a source for that, because that number is nowhere to be found in your original link, and it's not on that map, either.  There were only 21 cases in Nigeria at the last report.

 




I can't find it either.



I think he mistook the % number for the cases number.




Could have, now 21+/- in Lagos and Port Harcourt.



Among health care workers,  301 stricken, 144 dead.



Link

Those 21 cases in Lagos were all from Patrick Sawyer back in August, they have not had a new case since then.

 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 1:44:15 PM EDT
[#26]
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 2:02:41 PM EDT
[#27]
WHO's Sept 18 Update, ten page pdf.

Link

This is new cases reported by week:



Link Posted: 9/18/2014 2:13:47 PM EDT
[#28]
So yeah;  malaria kills over 600,000 people a year, 90% of whom are in Africa.  Why is this getting so much press?
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 2:15:43 PM EDT
[#29]
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 4:03:31 PM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
So yeah;  malaria kills over 600,000 people a year, 90% of whom are in Africa.  Why is this getting so much press?
View Quote

Malaria doesn't spread person to person.  It relies on a natural reservoir in mosquitos, and that risk simply doesn't exist here.  Ebola can be here on a plane flight.  Malaria has a treatment, rather than a 50% mortality rate.
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 5:15:15 PM EDT
[#31]
Officials in Guinea searching for a team of health workers and journalists who went missing while trying to raise awareness of Ebola have found several bodies.

A spokesman for Guinea's government said the bodies included those of three journalists in the team.

They went missing after being attacked on Tuesday in a village near the southern city of Nzerekore.

More than 2,600 people have now died from the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

It is the world's worst outbreak of the deadly disease, with officials warning that more than 20,000 people could ultimately be infected.

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Link


It said there had been more than 5,300 cases in total and that half of those were recorded in the past three weeks.

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Link Posted: 9/18/2014 5:19:02 PM EDT
[#32]
FREETOWN, Sierra Leone — Shoppers in Sierra Leone rushed to stock up on food Thursday ahead of a three-day nationwide shutdown, during which the country's 6 million people will be confined to their homes while volunteers search house-to-house for Ebola victims in hiding and hand out soap in a desperate bid to slow the accelerating outbreak.

The disease sweeping West Africa has also touched Liberia, Guinea, Nigeria and Senegal and is believed to have sickened more than 5,300 people, the World Health Organization reported. In a sign the crisis is picking up steam, more than 700 of those cases were recorded in the last week for which data is available.

View Quote



Link
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 6:54:16 PM EDT
[#33]
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Quoted:

Malaria doesn't spread person to person.  It relies on a natural reservoir in mosquitos, and that risk simply doesn't exist here.  Ebola can be here on a plane flight.  Malaria has a treatment, rather than a 50% mortality rate.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
So yeah;  malaria kills over 600,000 people a year, 90% of whom are in Africa.  Why is this getting so much press?

Malaria doesn't spread person to person.  It relies on a natural reservoir in mosquitos, and that risk simply doesn't exist here.  Ebola can be here on a plane flight.  Malaria has a treatment, rather than a 50% mortality rate.

I believe the point being made with the malaria reference is to introduce an aspect of "relativeness" on the public health impact of the current EVD outbreak. Every year, malaria cases worldwide number in the millions, and hundreds of thousands of people die from the disease. It is against this morbidity and mortality context which makes the current media coverage of this EVD outbreak appear exaggerated.

Furthermore, the risk of malaria certainly does exist here ... there is a sufficient population of vector competent mosquito species and plenty of susceptible human hosts for it to become a problem again IF the malaria parasite were re-introduced AND we did nothing to reduce mosquito populations or otherwise interrupt the requisite mosquito->human->mosquito->human transmission cycle.

FYI - malaria used to be a significant problem at one time in the USA. In fact, the first mission of the CDC was to eradicate malaria:

"On July 1, 1946 the Communicable Disease Center (CDC) opened its doors and occupied one floor of a small building in Atlanta. Its primary mission was simple yet highly challenging: prevent malaria from spreading across the nation."
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 8:20:40 PM EDT
[#34]
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Quoted:
Those 21 cases in Lagos were all from Patrick Sawyer back in August, they have not had a new case since then.  
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Quoted:
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Nigeria has 36 dead as of today.




I'd like to see a source for that, because that number is nowhere to be found in your original link, and it's not on that map, either.  There were only 21 cases in Nigeria at the last report.
 


I can't find it either.

I think he mistook the % number for the cases number.


Could have, now 21+/- in Lagos and Port Harcourt.

Among health care workers,  301 stricken, 144 dead.

Link
Those 21 cases in Lagos were all from Patrick Sawyer back in August, they have not had a new case since then.  


Not true.

4 cases in Port Harcourt because one of the contacts of Sawyer got sick and went to Port Harcourt and spread it there. The doctor he saw died of it as did 3 other people.

link
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 8:21:49 PM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
So yeah;  malaria kills over 600,000 people a year, 90% of whom are in Africa.  Why is this getting so much press?
View Quote


Because mosquitos with malaria don't go to the US and the EU.
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 8:25:30 PM EDT
[#36]


Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
So we can say We Did Something Instead Of Just Standing By while everybody who was going to dies anyway because it's West Africa.





Get some research in too.
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Quoted:





i a interested to see exactly what the IS military mission will be there. with 3k boots i suspect this is not going to be just medical.






So we can say We Did Something Instead Of Just Standing By while everybody who was going to dies anyway because it's West Africa.





Get some research in too.



You can't save stupid. Doesn't matter how much resources we throw at them the end result will be the same. Let them reap what they sow.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/18/us-health-ebbola-guinea-idUSKBN0HD2JE20140918





Eight bodies,
including those of three journalists, were found after an attack on a
team trying to educate locals on the risks of the Ebola virus in a
remote area of southeastern Guinea, a government spokesman said on
Thursday.

 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 8:31:15 PM EDT
[#37]
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It said there had been more than 5,300 cases in total and that half of those were recorded in the past three weeks.



According to the WHO 47% of all reported ebola cases in West Africa have occurred in the last three weeks. That's why the officials who testified yesterday told the US Senate committee that the number of cases is doubling in 21 days, rather than the 35 days which was the time it took for the number of cases to double at the end of August.
In other words, the disease is spreading faster than it was two weeks ago.
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 8:47:24 PM EDT
[#38]
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:02:12 PM EDT
[#39]
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Quoted:

keep in mind that may not be all "new" cases but those numbers may also include cases just found. That's an attempt at obfuscation by trying to draw a distinction without a difference. By definition, all new cases are those which are newly reported. .i fully believe their numbers are likely way low for actual deaths and exposures in the area since this started. Numbers in this stuff tend to report total found and known cases and may or may not indicate actual new cases from new exposures. More nonsense. Cases are included as they are reported. Keep in mind WHO is fighting for control and money right now.

while those numbers could be correct i haven't seen the exact details of the reports and it wouldn't be the first time such things have been done.
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Now your suggestion is that the WHO is inflating the reported numbers, because an acceleration in the rate of infections shows that your contention that the outbreak is controlled or contained is just a pipe dream at this point. More "Don't worry, Be Happy!" talk.




Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:11:45 PM EDT
[#40]
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:35:17 PM EDT
[#41]

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WHO's Sept 18 Update, ten page pdf.



Link



This is new cases reported by week:



http://s23.postimg.org/6y3ur3qi3/Capture.jpg



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That graph is extremely interesting, because you can see the exact moment it went from a typical Ebola outbreak -- with sporadic cases being reported from week to week -- to a full-bore epidemic.



Somewhere between June 1st and June 15th the virus crossed into Sierra Leone and Liberia and hit the coastal cities.  From then on, the epidemic took off.



 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:37:50 PM EDT
[#42]

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Quoted:
Because mosquitos with malaria don't go to the US and the EU.
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Quoted:



Quoted:

So yeah;  malaria kills over 600,000 people a year, 90% of whom are in Africa.  Why is this getting so much press?




Because mosquitos with malaria don't go to the US and the EU.


Don't need the mosquitoes; we already have Anopheles mosquitoes in abundance here in the US.  All we need to start a transmission cycle is a critical mass of malaria-infected persons from whom the mosquitoes can obtain the parasite.



 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:37:57 PM EDT
[#43]
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Quoted:


Because mosquitos with malaria don't go to the US and the EU.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
So yeah;  malaria kills over 600,000 people a year, 90% of whom are in Africa.  Why is this getting so much press?


Because mosquitos with malaria don't go to the US and the EU.

Yes, but people having malaria infections do travel to the US and represent the potential to re-establish multiple areas of endemic transmission.

There were 1,925 cases of malaria reported in the US in 2011, with 1,920 of these cases (~99%) being imported. This is the highest number of malaria cases since 1971.

LINK:  www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss6205a1.htm
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 9:55:02 PM EDT
[#44]


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Took several days to go from 2400+ to 2500? Worst plague ever. I'm going to the mall.





Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
View Quote



As I noted above, I would be willing to bet any numbers from Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia are either old or understated.  Their Health Ministries are waaay too busy or scared to keep up.





The graph above is a pretty good illustration of how we are still in an epidemic phase in those three countries.  The good news is it appears both Nigeria and Senegal have contained theirs for now.





 
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 11:09:49 PM EDT
[#45]
Link Posted: 9/18/2014 11:40:44 PM EDT
[#46]



Glad I'm not in Monrovia right now.
Link Posted: 9/19/2014 12:02:21 AM EDT
[#47]




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Not true.
4 cases in Port Harcourt because one of the contacts of Sawyer got sick and went to Port Harcourt and spread it there. The doctor he saw died of it as did 3 other people.
link
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Quoted:



Those 21 cases in Lagos were all from Patrick Sawyer back in August, they have not had a new case since then.  

Not true.
4 cases in Port Harcourt because one of the contacts of Sawyer got sick and went to Port Harcourt and spread it there. The doctor he saw died of it as did 3 other people.
link
I believe Lagos and Port Harcourt are two different geographical locations, last I checked.  If I had said Nigeria, then that would have been not true.
 
Link Posted: 9/19/2014 12:17:07 AM EDT
[#48]
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white robes and hoods?
Link Posted: 9/19/2014 12:34:22 AM EDT
[#49]
President Barack Obama has wisely decided to use the U.S. armed forces to help Africa fight the Ebola epidemic. Public health experts agree that a major surge is needed to bring the runaway epidemic and its horrible consequences under control, and the U.S. military has an almost unique capacity to support the needed effort.

Under the president's plan, military engineers will build urgently needed treatment facilities in Liberia where the epidemic has outrun local capacity, train medical workers and provide urgently needed medical supplies.

American airlift aircraft will fill a logistic gap created by the decision of commercial airlines to drop service in affected areas. A military headquarters will manage all the transportation and communications needs of U.S. personnel from the Public Health Service and other agencies.

Fighting Ebola will not come cheaply. Last summer the World Health Organization estimated that it would cost $500 million to bring the epidemic under control. But Ebola has spread much more rapidly in the urban areas of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea than any experts expected.
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Link
Link Posted: 9/19/2014 5:48:55 AM EDT
[#50]
Eight bodies found after attack on Guinea Ebola education team

Eight bodies, including those of three journalists, were found after an attack on a team trying to educate locals on the risks of the Ebola virus in a remote area of southeastern Guinea...

...Authorities in the region are faced with widespread fears, misinformation and stigma among residents of the affected countries, complicating efforts to contain the highly contagious disease.
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