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kab85
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:03:37 PM EST
I mean, American Idol is on.

But seriously, let's say Putin just takes it home. Annexes Ukraine.

What is the reaction to that? We sure don't seem to be in a position to start rattling sabres with another nuclear power.

Is the world really on in the same position they are with us, which is, can't do shit?

If I'm missing something, please educate me. Foreign relations are not my thing, I'm primarily into domestic politics.

Worst case scenario?
Most likely scenario?
Anyone here playing all their cards or is this maneuvering and posturing?
staraero
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:04:43 PM EST
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:05:25 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/2/2014 3:06:07 PM EST by werepossum]
No one in the US would care about Russian troops in Ukraine if the TV stopped playing stories about it. Unless Obama/Kerry do something stupid, nothing changes
Screechjet1
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:08:25 PM EST
The value of American security guaranties would be zero. This is Obama's Cuban Missile Crisis
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:08:37 PM EST
Why not just post this Q in one of the other 10 threads on Ukraine??

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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:09:54 PM EST
It confirms to the rest of the world that which they already know. That the U.S. under Obama is a complete paper tiger and that Putin is actually the superior to Obama in every way.

For us it means very little, to our allies it means a great deal. This will not harm us in the short term but has the potential to do so long term.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:10:40 PM EST
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.
kab85
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:11:41 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By 32DOHC:
Why not just post this Q in one of the other 10 threads on Ukraine??



Because it isn't about what's happened or happening, but the fallout of what could happen. Theorizing.

Like the previous response about American securities value. I didn't see anything like that in other threads. Consider this thread more philosophy than practice.
ronin556
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:11:47 PM EST
Trade embargo with Russia

So no cheap ammo

No saigas

No russian vodka

No russian chicks
kab85
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:12:26 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
The value of American security guaranties would be zero. This is Obama's Cuban Missile Crisis


Care to expand?
Chairborne
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:12:39 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By Krater:
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.


This.
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kab85
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:13:05 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ronin556:
Trade embargo with Russia

So no cheap ammo

No saigas

No russian vodka

No russian chicks


OK, that sucks more than lots of other stuff.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:13:30 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ronin556:
Trade embargo with Russia

So no cheap ammo

No saigas

No russian vodka

No russian chicks


And all that.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:13:52 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
The value of American security guaranties would be zero. This is Obama's Cuban Missile Crisis

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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:13:58 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By Krater:
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.

Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltics are members of NATO. Ukraine is not.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:14:34 PM EST
Because we signed an agreement with Ukraine as well as Russia.


Google much?
beardog30
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:14:57 PM EST
Our word becomes worth even less. Our military guarantees will mean nothing.
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kab85
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:15:41 PM EST
I'm having a hard time grasping what the big deal is.

First thing we want to do when a place we have an interest in starts to go apes hit is stabilize. Russia has an interest in a stable neighbor since the interim PM has no grip.

If this were Mexico and we decided to move in and stabilize, would it be a discussion?
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:16:02 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ElectricSheep556:
Originally Posted By Krater:
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.

Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltics are members of NATO. Ukraine is not.


This, Very big distinction.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:16:39 PM EST
Why is everyone so interested in fighting the Russians? Why can't Europe deal with this shit?
kab85
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:16:49 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By beardog30:
Our word becomes worth even less. Our military guarantees will mean nothing.


Does anyone really think otherwise? We are notorious for hanging people out to dry.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:17:17 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ronin556:
Trade embargo with Russia

So no cheap ammo

No saigas

No russian vodka

No russian chicks


Fuck i should pickup more surplus ammo and another arsenal.
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kab85
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:17:38 PM EST
This does remind me that I better go snag up some cheap amlo quick.
Citadel-SC
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:18:09 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By kab85:
I'm having a hard time grasping what the big deal is.

First thing we want to do when a place we have an interest in starts to go apes hit is stabilize. Russia has an interest in a stable neighbor since the interim PM has no grip.

If this were Mexico and we decided to move in and stabilize, would it be a discussion?


Mexico is worse off than Ukraine yet we have not invaded. Russia has no right to invade Ukraine based on a fallacious and manufactured claim.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:19:00 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ElectricSheep556:
Originally Posted By Krater:
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.

Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltics are members of NATO. Ukraine is not.


Have you been reading the coverage...? All of the news outlets are emphasizing how we can't do anything to protect Ukraine from a nuclear power. Not "won't" - "can't". And I got to believe they are just passing on what the administration is telling them. If the Russians roll into Warsaw, I'm sure the talk will be about how Russians have legitimate security interests in the area, how Poland really used to be part of Russian Empire, and how much US has to loose if it gets into a shooting war.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:19:04 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By kab85:
Originally Posted By beardog30:
Our word becomes worth even less. Our military guarantees will mean nothing.


Does anyone really think otherwise? We are notorious for hanging people out to dry.

We might have a few allies that think we would help them out up until this point.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:20:13 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By werepossum:
No one in the US would care about Russian troops in Ukraine if the TV stopped playing stories about it. Unless Obama/Kerry do something stupid, nothing changes


+1
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:20:35 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ElectricSheep556:
Originally Posted By Krater:
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.

Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltics are members of NATO. Ukraine is not.


And yet even after Georgia they were already lacking in confidence that the U.S. would actually come to their aid in the event of an attack, regardless of NATO guarantees, and even less confident in the western NATO members, as they had tried to actually modify Article 5 to reduce their need to respond if the newer members were attacked by Russia. These countries even, in the wake of that war, tried to create a separate alliance that included a couple of non-NATO states (Finland, and I believe Ukraine as well, before changes due to elections) to try to protect themselves in the event of the U.S. or NATO's failure to do so (how effective such an alliance would be vis a vis Russia is hard to say).

Russia's resurgence is contrary to American interests, as is its ability to do what it is doing, to include attacking U.S. allies (like Georgia, which was an ally, even if not a member of NATO) with near-impunity. We ignore the Russians at the peril of our national interests. It is most unfortunate that the U.S. has both been grossly incompetent under the current and previous administrations with respect to foreign policy and intelligence in this area and also has been tied down in central and southwest Asia for so long such that responses had for a long time been inhibited (not much of an issue today, but during the Georgia war, for example, it most certainly was, and Russia took advantage of that).
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:21:15 PM EST
The BEST result is the one we are seeing. This debacle is EXPOSING Obongo, Hittlary and Biden for what they are. Idiots with no courage or brains.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:22:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/2/2014 3:22:52 PM EST by Choking_Hazard]
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By beardog30:
Our word becomes worth even less. Our military guarantees will mean nothing.


I doubt the next country we want to give up its nuclear arsenal is as compliant after this incident.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:23:29 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By Krater:
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.


Domino theory. They will take Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Georgia. They have Europe dependent on their energy supply, and can dominate Poland, Finland, Rumania, Hungary, Slovenia...etc.

In short, the Soviet Empire is back, and Europe is neutralized.

Use Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia as forward bases for infiltration and domination of Columbia and Brazil, destabilizing sabotage of Mexico, and the opening of RED DAWN becomes a strategic blueprint.

Does it matter if it takes another 15 years? This is the opening gambit in WW III, and we are the target.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:23:38 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By beardog30:
Our word becomes worth even less. Our military guarantees will mean nothing.


This.

It forces all our allies to change the calculus going forward on everything from security to trade. Europe, the middle east, asia...they all will have to consider building relationships with the RU that help prevent this happening in their own countries. It's a long haul issue, not an immediate security issue, so the Cuban comparison doesn't hold water, but the effect may be just as bad long term.
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beardog30
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:23:39 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By Choking_Hazard:
Originally Posted By beardog30:
Our word becomes worth even less. Our military guarantees will mean nothing.


I doubt the next country we want to give up its nuclear arsenal is as compliant after this incident.

No doubt.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:23:57 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/2/2014 3:27:34 PM EST by cyclone]
I have read the coverage, but I don't think Russia, despite the bluster, will roll into Warsaw anytime soon..............that being said, We don't have the leadership anymore to stand up to anyone. We have a community organizer who is too busy buying votes.

But since Russia feels there is a security issue with the Ukraine, they surely wouldn't mind us rolling into Venezuela to clean it up


[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By Krater:
Originally Posted By ElectricSheep556:
Originally Posted By Krater:
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.

Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltics are members of NATO. Ukraine is not.


Have you been reading the coverage...? All of the news outlets are emphasizing how we can't do anything to protect Ukraine from a nuclear power. Not "won't" - "can't". And I got to believe they are just passing on what the administration is telling them. If the Russians roll into Warsaw, I'm sure the talk will be about how Russians have legitimate security interests in the area, how Poland really used to be part of Russian Empire, and how much US has to loose if it gets into a shooting war.

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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:25:54 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By BigPony:
Originally Posted By ElectricSheep556:
Originally Posted By Krater:
It tells them that they can take over Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics and we'll just wag a finger at them.

Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltics are members of NATO. Ukraine is not.


This, Very big distinction.


Yet when a non-NATO ally with whom we've signed an agreement for a narrow range of situations but to whom we've made larger promises is invaded without reprucusion, the value of all of our promises, including NATO, is diminished.

The rest of the world can't plan their long term growth, stability, and trade based on a 4 year election cycle in the hope that the US has strong leadership. It's a huge negative for the US even if it doesn't hit your pocket tomorrow morning.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:27:12 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/2/2014 3:27:53 PM EST by Citadel-SC]
A Russian take over of all of Ukraine would be completely unacceptable. It would be, up to this point, an unheard of escalation between Russia and the West. I don't think the Russians would do that but if it occurred I would hope the U.S. and Europe would respond appropriately.

As far as it stands currently, it is a good of time as any to put Putin in his place....it is long overdue.
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David45
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:27:23 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By kab85:
Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
The value of American security guaranties would be zero. This is Obama's Cuban Missile Crisis

Care to expand?

There are multiple countries deciding on whether to align with the west or stay with Russia.

This will be at least the 2nd time in recent memory that Russia has performed a open military operation against an eastern european nation with no significant response from the US.

So the message that's communicated is "Go ahead, have protests and install a pro-EU government. But Putin will march in and teach you to love the motherland."

The Obama administration has actually made things worse since they publicly warned Russia against military action without having anything in place to back it up.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:27:38 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By Krater:

Have you been reading the coverage...? All of the news outlets are emphasizing how we can't do anything to protect Ukraine from a nuclear power. Not "won't" - "can't". And I got to believe they are just passing on what the administration is telling them. If the Russians roll into Warsaw, I'm sure the talk will be about how Russians have legitimate security interests in the area, how Poland really used to be part of Russian Empire, and how much US has to loose if it gets into a shooting war.


Sans nukes, these are all the same arguments made in the years before the US entered WW2. History is repeating and the enlightened membership of GD doesn't realize it.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:31:44 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ronin556:
Trade embargo with Russia

So no cheap ammo

No saigas

No russian vodka

No russian chicks

Nooooooooo. All things I love
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bigstick61
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:32:34 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By kab85:
I'm having a hard time grasping what the big deal is.

First thing we want to do when a place we have an interest in starts to go apes hit is stabilize. Russia has an interest in a stable neighbor since the interim PM has no grip.

If this were Mexico and we decided to move in and stabilize, would it be a discussion?


This has nothing to do with a desire to "stabilize" much of anything on Russia's part. That is just a convenient excuse. It'd be more like seizing the part of Cuba around Guantanamo if the government had become pro-American once more and then the communists had taken over again using protests as their method, or even more like France seizing Quebec because it surrounds Miquelon and the government in Canada became anti-French via protests. And really, these are still inadequate analogies. The issue is really rather complex, such that it is hard to make an appropriate analogy. One has to understand Russian and Ukrainian history and culture (as well as Soviet history) going back centuries, the ideologies involved here, the economic aspects, the geopolitics regarding Russia's resurgence and its view of itself in the world (as well as what it needs to be "secure" in its eyes), Vladimir Putin the man, and more.

Russia is doing this because it wants to expand back to its older borders under Soviet and Imperial rule while also returning to its previous status as a much more significant and strong power. This is one more piece needed to achieve its ends for a number of reasons. It further tests NATO and the U.S., which gives Russia a picture of what more it can do after Ukraine, tests Russian military abilities further (and provides more operational experience), expands Russia's borders (de facto or de jure), provides precedence for increased use of these tactics (Georgia was the first step), and secures important Russian assets which it needs to maintain and expand its powers and pursue its interests. Again, the "unrest" is just a pretext for doing what it really wanted to do, but did not need to for some time due to who had previously been in power (which was itself in part the result of Russian interference in Ukrainian politics, one of the many tools it uses to accomplish its objectives short of military action).
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:42:03 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By bigstick61:
This has nothing to do with a desire to "stabilize" much of anything on Russia's part. That is just a convenient excuse. It'd be more like seizing the part of Cuba around Guantanamo if the government had become pro-American once more and then the communists had taken over again using protests as their method, or even more like France seizing Quebec because it surrounds Miquelon and the government in Canada became anti-French via protests. And really, these are still inadequate analogies. The issue is really rather complex, such that it is hard to make an appropriate analogy. One has to understand Russian and Ukrainian history and culture (as well as Soviet history) going back centuries, the ideologies involved here, the economic aspects, the geopolitics regarding Russia's resurgence and its view of itself in the world (as well as what it needs to be "secure" in its eyes), Vladimir Putin the man, and more.

Russia is doing this because it wants to expand back to its older borders under Soviet and Imperial rule while also returning to its previous status as a much more significant and strong power. This is one more piece needed to achieve its ends for a number of reasons. It further tests NATO and the U.S., which gives Russia a picture of what more it can do after Ukraine, tests Russian military abilities further (and provides more operational experience), expands Russia's borders (de facto or de jure), provides precedence for increased use of these tactics (Georgia was the first step), and secures important Russian assets which it needs to maintain and expand its powers and pursue its interests. Again, the "unrest" is just a pretext for doing what it really wanted to do, but did not need to for some time due to who had previously been in power (which was itself in part the result of Russian interference in Ukrainian politics, one of the many tools it uses to accomplish its objectives short of military action).


Excellent summation.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:42:52 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/2/2014 3:44:04 PM EST by vanvideo]
My good friends, this is the second time in our history that there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. And now I recommend you to go home and sleep quietly in your beds.

- Neville Chamberlain, after agreeing to Hitler's request to annex Sudentenland, while the remaining borders of Czechoslovakia were guaranteed, 1938.



The point is, we don't know where this could lead. it could end up being a divided Ukraine. Or a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. Or a shooting war between Russia and the EU. Or who knows?
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:45:35 PM EST
Obama would apologize.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:48:45 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ACEB36TC:
The BEST result is the one we are seeing. This debacle is EXPOSING Obongo, Hittlary and Biden for what they are. Idiots with no courage or brains.


People with a brain already know they are idiots.
The idiots who vote for them care less and the ones with half a brain will still pull the lever for them out of part loyalty.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:49:03 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By beardog30:
Originally Posted By kab85:
Originally Posted By beardog30:
Our word becomes worth even less. Our military guarantees will mean nothing.


Does anyone really think otherwise? We are notorious for hanging people out to dry.

We might have a few allies that think we would help them out up until this point.



Ukraine and Georgia both sent troops to Iraq and Afghanistan,not because of any actual interests but because the US asked them to.


Why should anyone help the next time America goes on an ill-thought adventure if they've proven to be such a buddy fucker?
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:50:44 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By FrankSymptoms:
Obama would apologize.


He's gonna side with Putin very soon and say there was a destabilizing insurgent force threatening the harmony of mother earth. That Putin is preventing any more carbon poisoning of the earth by delivering life saving propane to the EU and cutting down on greenhouse gas emissions at the same time.

Your heart's desire is to be told some mystery. The mystery is that there is no mystery.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:52:50 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By outofbattery:


Ukraine and Georgia both sent troops to Iraq and Afghanistan,not because of any actual interests but because the US asked them to.


Why should anyone help the next time America goes on an ill-thought adventure if they've proven to be such a buddy fucker?


I wont argue with you about Iraq, but you should be required to stare at the photo below while saying Afghanistan was an ill thought adventure.

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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:54:52 PM EST
Clogging up all ARFCOMs bandwidth with Russia/Ukraine threads?


Jesus, just post in one of the other 87 front page threads stupid questions about the situation.
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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:55:37 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By ronin556:
Trade embargo with Russia

So no cheap ammo

No saigas

No russian vodka

No russian chicks


No Russian chicks...........lol. Oh wait.

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Posted: 3/2/2014 3:57:09 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By dillehayd:
Originally Posted By outofbattery:


Ukraine and Georgia both sent troops to Iraq and Afghanistan,not because of any actual interests but because the US asked them to.


Why should anyone help the next time America goes on an ill-thought adventure if they've proven to be such a buddy fucker?


I wont argue with you about Iraq, but you should be required to stare at the photo below while saying Afghanistan was an ill thought adventure.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/September_17_2001.jpg


Not all of it, just 12 years or so.
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Screechjet1
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Posted: 3/2/2014 4:01:00 PM EST
[Jump To Reply]Originally Posted By kab85:
Originally Posted By Screechjet1:
The value of American security guaranties would be zero. This is Obama's Cuban Missile Crisis


Care to expand?


We, along with the other permanent members of the UNSC, signed security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for denuclearization.

If Ukraine is partitioned, the Budapest Agreement is a dead letter. No other nation will see ever any value in getting rid of WMD, after this and Libya. States like the PRC will be emboldened to aggressively pursue their own territorial claims, since US security guarantees now mean little or nothing.

Nations facing aggression will pursue their own WMD programs, and no one rational would blame them.
And how can man die better, Than facing fearful odds, For the ashes of his fathers, And the temples of his Gods.
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