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Posted: 12/7/2013 11:44:42 AM EDT
[#1]
I'm still waiting to see if Sportsmans Guide actually ships my 2 orders of .22 from mid March.....
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Posted: 12/7/2013 11:45:29 AM EDT
[#2]
You aren't seeing new manufacturers pop up because it takes alot of capital to open a .22lr production line.
You aren't seeing existing manufacturers open new production lines for it because they know that this is just another one of the cyclical demand spikes. Same reason it took several YEARS of high oil prices before oil companies would commit to spending infrastructure on the Eagle Ford shale. They had to be sure the demand and price was consistent. I see alot of people who know very little about the gun business in this thread. Or for that matter, business period. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 11:55:20 AM EDT
[#3]
Quoted:
Can anybody point me to US manufacturers' .22 LR numbers by, say, the last 5 or 10 years? I'm not a tinfoil hat wearer, but I am beginning to think that they have cut back on production. I don't believe hoarders could still be buying it all. I know some areas have seen a little .22 LR for sale, but around here it's as scarce as hen's teeth. We see numbers for the number of trucks manufactured and such, but I have not seen any production numbers on ammo. Anybody? . The entire industry produces enough .22LR to send FIVE bricks ( 500 rounds each brick ) to each walmart in the USA five days per week ( total of 25 bricks per week per store ) The NSSF ? or Ammo land ? did a report on the industry earlier this year. When you look at the firearm sales the last few years, that is not very much. I just shot a brick from 15 years ago, price tag said $6.99..... |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:06:10 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I worked at Federal Cartridge in the mid 90's. At full production on the .22 JIT line they could make 7 million .22 LR per day. I am no conspiracy theorist either, but there is no fucking way in hell the 22LR shortage should have lasted this long. If 20 million people buy 500 rounds of .22 (one brick), that's 1428 days of production, over four years for your company. If just 7 million people buy one brick it would still take over a year to make it. If they buy TWO bricks do the math. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:06:58 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I worked at Federal Cartridge in the mid 90's. At full production on the .22 JIT line they could make 7 million .22 LR per day. I am no conspiracy theorist either, but there is no fucking way in hell the 22LR shortage should have lasted this long. Ok, look at t this way. 7, 000, 000÷500rds per box=14, 000 14, 000÷2000 walmart stores = 7 boxes each per day. Not that much. Now throw in individual gun shops and places like cabelas... Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:16:01 PM EDT
[#6]
GD and basic 6th grade math.
Not going to work. It's easier to blame a conspriacy 
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:18:13 PM EDT
[#7]
All 3 of the big US ammo manufacturers have announced expansions to their ammo production lines. I don't know if they're up and running yet though.
Adding another production line to produce ammo isn't as simple as ordering a Dillon or RCBS press. You can't just unbox it and start cranking out ammo. The machinery is extremely expensive and takes a long time to setup. I talked to our Federal rep back at the SHOT Show in January. He said Federal was adding in 2 new ammo lines this year. I don't remember his exact numbers, but I think it was going to cost them around $40-$60 million per line. And it takes 9-10 months to build and setup before they can even start producing ammo. So from a manufacturer's perspective, you're looking at a $50+ million investment to increase production, and it takes almost a year to start producing anything. When you know the ammo demand spike is temporary, would you gamble $50 million on the assumption that demand is still going to be high 1-2 years down the road? It takes several years to recoup that investment, and if demand falls back down to where it was in 2012, the company could be losing money for decades until they pay off the new equipment. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:21:36 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The production lines to manufacture rimfire ammo can't easily be converted to produce center fire ammo. No one is cutting 22LR production to focus on more expensive calibers. By doing that, millions of dollars in equipment would just sit idle for no reason. It is 100% demand driven. There is no other factor or conspiracy behind it. You guys blaming the government or claiming manufacturers are holding back on purpose are just being obtuse. Do the math yourself. It all adds up to a consumer driven shortage. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile Nailed it. Just look at the ranges. In the 15 years where I've been shooting as an adult, I've seen ranges get more and more busy. In addition, the mix of firearms has gotten more EBR friendly. Likewise, there are a lot more semi-auto .22s available now then before AND its the least expensive ammo available. After Olin (Winchester) finishes up their move from IIlinois, there might be some respite. Remember, there is a war going on in the middle east. The Russians are producing for that as well as a huge increase in American civilian demand. Heck, even people in Russia are starting to shoot more civilian firearms. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:22:53 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
GD and basic 6th grade math. Not going to work. It's easier to blame a conspriacy It really is sad. 
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:38:34 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Powder did/has been scarce in bulk. Would that have any impact on what was produced? Not converting a line per say, but simply not running it at max to ensure they had ample supply for more profitable products. Just spitballing here... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
The production lines to manufacture rimfire ammo can't easily be converted to produce center fire ammo. No one is cutting 22LR production to focus on more expensive calibers. By doing that, millions of dollars in equipment would just sit idle for no reason. It is 100% demand driven. There is no other factor or conspiracy behind it. You guys blaming the government or claiming manufacturers are holding back on purpose are just being obtuse. Do the math yourself. It all adds up to a consumer driven shortage. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile Powder did/has been scarce in bulk. Would that have any impact on what was produced? Not converting a line per say, but simply not running it at max to ensure they had ample supply for more profitable products. Just spitballing here... I don't think you could use powders formulated for rimfire for centerfire rounds. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:38:34 PM EDT
[#11]
My head hurts with all these numbers. I just want some ammo damnit
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:42:18 PM EDT
[#12]
Its out there. I've picked up close to 350 bricks since sh.
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:48:17 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I see 22 every week between the LGS, Dunhams, Walmart, and Gun shows. I bought 4 of various brand 500 round boxes just a week ago. It's out there, just getting grabbed up as soon as it appears. Now 300 blackout, that's the mythical beast no one can find around here. Yeah, but you can roll your own .300. Just punched out some more today. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:48:33 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Its out there. I've picked up close to 350 bricks since sh. So you are the guy I keep hearing about. Care to admit to a neck beard
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:50:23 PM EDT
[#15]
Right now the manufacturers know they can sell the expensive stuff like Mini-Mags and Stingers.
As well as single boxes and higher end brands. There is no reason for them to make bulk packs right now when they can sell every bit of their higher end 22lr. They simply do not have to dedicate any time to manufacturing bulk type ammo (it would literally cost them money). /thread |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:50:48 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Its out there. I've picked up close to 350 bricks since sh. If that's the case you would probably win the "My .22 Ammo Stash" pic around here.....if you still have it all. No flame from me.... Just think it would be cool to see...... 
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Posted: 12/7/2013 12:56:51 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
All 3 of the big US ammo manufacturers have announced expansions to their ammo production lines. I don't know if they're up and running yet though. Adding another production line to produce ammo isn't as simple as ordering a Dillon or RCBS press. You can't just unbox it and start cranking out ammo. The machinery is extremely expensive and takes a long time to setup. I talked to our Federal rep back at the SHOT Show in January. He said Federal was adding in 2 new ammo lines this year. I don't remember his exact numbers, but I think it was going to cost them around $40-$60 million per line. And it takes 9-10 months to build and setup before they can even start producing ammo. So from a manufacturer's perspective, you're looking at a $50+ million investment to increase production, and it takes almost a year to start producing anything. When you know the ammo demand spike is temporary, would you gamble $50 million on the assumption that demand is still going to be high 1-2 years down the road? It takes several years to recoup that investment, and if demand falls back down to where it was in 2012, the company could be losing money for decades until they pay off the new equipment. Quote HistoryQuoted:
All 3 of the big US ammo manufacturers have announced expansions to their ammo production lines. I don't know if they're up and running yet though. Adding another production line to produce ammo isn't as simple as ordering a Dillon or RCBS press. You can't just unbox it and start cranking out ammo. The machinery is extremely expensive and takes a long time to setup. I talked to our Federal rep back at the SHOT Show in January. He said Federal was adding in 2 new ammo lines this year. I don't remember his exact numbers, but I think it was going to cost them around $40-$60 million per line. And it takes 9-10 months to build and setup before they can even start producing ammo. So from a manufacturer's perspective, you're looking at a $50+ million investment to increase production, and it takes almost a year to start producing anything. When you know the ammo demand spike is temporary, would you gamble $50 million on the assumption that demand is still going to be high 1-2 years down the road? It takes several years to recoup that investment, and if demand falls back down to where it was in 2012, the company could be losing money for decades until they pay off the new equipment. Stuff like this is where China really beats America. China could have a facility up and running in 2-3 months and meet current demand in 4-5. Take the iPhone for example: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html?_r=0 ...It isn’t just that workers are cheaper abroad. Rather, Apple’s executives believe the vast scale of overseas factories as well as the flexibility, diligence and industrial skills of foreign workers have so outpaced their American counterparts that “Made in the U.S.A.” is no longer a viable option for most Apple products.... Apple executives say that going overseas, at this point, is their only option. One former executive described how the company relied upon a Chinese factory to revamp iPhone manufacturing just weeks before the device was due on shelves. Apple had redesigned the iPhone’s screen at the last minute, forcing an assembly line overhaul. New screens began arriving at the plant near midnight. A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company’s dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day. “The speed and flexibility is breathtaking,” the executive said. “There’s no American plant that can match that.”... Another critical advantage for Apple was that China provided engineers at a scale the United States could not match. Apple’s executives had estimated that about 8,700 industrial engineers were needed to oversee and guide the 200,000 assembly-line workers eventually involved in manufacturing iPhones. The company’s analysts had forecast it would take as long as nine months to find that many qualified engineers in the United States. In China, it took 15 days.... We're just not the world leaders in building factories and stuff anymore. It's a shame we can't import ammo from China. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 1:04:39 PM EDT
[#18]
The production figures quoted in here vs. supply amounts per store vs the past 5 years of rabid gun sales only go to show the .22 cartridge market is ripe for the picking.
Manufacturers are enjoying the gravy of an extremely high and prolonged spike in the market, which will not be expected to come down for some time. However, allowing demand to go unmet for an extended period of time will cause a self fulfilling prophecy of loss in demand and loss in potential profits. Manufacturers aren't going to lose either way. They can either increase production and reap greater profits or they can do nothing and watch public interest plummet in their product. Then they can sit back and say "see, if we'd had invested in a new production line we would have lost all that money".....no, all you did is throttle back demand to the same level as before and lost a mountain of potential earnings. Kinda like throwing away that lottery ticket so you can go back to work. The total .22 supply vs store figures are pathetic....perhaps Aguila, Tula or even a WangChung HK,Ltd will take notice and appreciate receiving American dollars. Otherwise, all us shooters will just sit back and wait for demand to die down ,.....while reloading our own .223. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 1:05:13 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Right now the manufacturers know they can sell the expensive stuff like Mini-Mags and Stingers. As well as single boxes and higher end brands. There is no reason for them to make bulk packs right now when they can sell every bit of their higher end 22lr. They simply do not have to dedicate any time to manufacturing bulk type ammo (it would literally cost them money). /thread Nope. They could make the cheap stuff and sell it for a premium price. Higher profit margins are always desirable. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 1:12:11 PM EDT
[#20]
I'm curious why the Russians are not involved in all this. Back in the early 90's you could get cheap steel case 22lr literally by the ton. Heck, I STILL have a couple of bricks with a Rooster on the packaging.
Did they scrap all the machinery or something? |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 1:41:19 PM EDT
[#21]
Is there some federal activity getting in the way of imports? One would think that distributors would be desperately trying to take advantage of the demand and bring in as much as possible.
Wolf (Germany) Eley (UK) Centurion (Hecho en Mexico) and surely lots more that aren't coming to mind |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 1:48:36 PM EDT
[#22]
my guess is .22lr is low margin, making one takes similar steps compared to pistol or rifle ammo, while the price is about 1/10, so that's the reason shooters all prefer to shoot 22 now, and makers don't like to make more of them, they want you to go back to shoot m193/m855
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:00:07 PM EDT
[#23]
For the folks that say they can't find 22, what price per round is your refusal point?
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:07:56 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Where I live, if you go to Walmart on Friday morning, you will always see a group of rednecks waiting to buy out all the .22 Ammo. It is ALL about "Supply and demand". Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I worked at Federal Cartridge in the mid 90's. At full production on the .22 JIT line they could make 7 million .22 LR per day. I am no conspiracy theorist either, but there is no fucking way in hell the 22LR shortage should have lasted this long. THIS. I am forced, by common sense, to believe that something is going on with ammo "behind the scenes" and that includes .22 LR ammo. I don't care how many 13'ers are buying it at twice the price we older board members think they should be paying, SOMETHING UNUSUAL is going on with ammo - and especially .22 LR ammo and it' s more than a "suppy and demand" issue too. Remember, this government is capable of ANYTHING. Have we forgotten "Fast and Furious" already? A government that would do that is capable of ANYTHING. Where I live, if you go to Walmart on Friday morning, you will always see a group of rednecks waiting to buy out all the .22 Ammo. It is ALL about "Supply and demand". This. I'm still good on .22 but my supply has been getting lower every week. Once supply is back i'll probably buy a few hundred bricks in case we go through this again. The rednecks are snatching it up now. Every redneck I know that never used to shoot is shooting and stockpiling now. If you just count my small sample size (friends family) then usage for them is up atleast 10 fold. It doesn't seem like much at first. "O hell, a few guys a shooting ammo but they can't shoot that much". If you actually crunch the numbers I see why there isn't any in stock. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:12:50 PM EDT
[#25]
I'm stocked up but my wife unit snatched a brick of golden bullets the other day and I cherish them. I've had them a week and have only fired maybe 100 rounds. That's some serious self control on the ranch.
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:13:30 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
For the folks that say they can't find 22, what price per round is your refusal point? The shelves are empty, demand greatly exceeds supply. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:15:55 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
For the folks that say they can't find 22, what price per round is your refusal point? Basically wal mart pricing is the lowest that I've seen except blowout sales. That's what I pay. I stockpile so I don't have to pay high prices. For powder and reloading stuff i'll pay 20% above normal price if I really need something but I try to stockpile that as much as I can also. I bought some gander mountain pistol ammo last week because it was for a gun that I just bought and didn't have reloaded ammo for. I paid about 52% higher than normal cost but they were the only ones that had it and I wanted to shoot with family over thanksgiving. EDIT - For us here in the panhandle, it's laden with goddamned rednecks. (Yes, a guy known as "fella" all of his life isn't a redneck in comparison to these texas folk). The rednecks snatch up everything. There is NO .22 ammo. .22 short is all I've seen and they had a 100 round limit on it. They can barely make the lot payment on their trailer house but they still buy up all the ammo. I know guys that are trolling for ammo every day at walmart and buy it when it's there, but they don't even own a gun in that caliber. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:16:34 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: For the folks that say they can't find 22, what price per round is your refusal point? Walmart, gun store, etc. They don't want to go online or go to a gun show to get it. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:16:47 PM EDT
[#29]
... I bought a case (5000) rounds at the SAR Show today, produced by ATK for Gemtech. They had shit loads there. May go back tomorrow and buy another couple
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:18:32 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If 20 million people buy 500 rounds of .22 (one brick), that's 1428 days of production, over four years for your company. If just 7 million people buy one brick it would still take over a year to make it. If they buy TWO bricks do the math. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I worked at Federal Cartridge in the mid 90's. At full production on the .22 JIT line they could make 7 million .22 LR per day. I am no conspiracy theorist either, but there is no fucking way in hell the 22LR shortage should have lasted this long. If 20 million people buy 500 rounds of .22 (one brick), that's 1428 days of production, over four years for your company. If just 7 million people buy one brick it would still take over a year to make it. If they buy TWO bricks do the math. And figure that more people own a 22 than any other firearm, and if they all decided they need to buy a brick or two "just in case", it's a worse situation than 20 million buyers and the industry needing 4 years to meet the demand. Things are probably more like a case of at least 50 million 22 owners trying to find a brick or more and the backlog of 22LR demand will be with us for years to come. And your math paints a pretty ugly picture with that level of demand. Quite literally a case of "If you didn't buy it before now, you may never be able to buy it." |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:18:53 PM EDT
[#31]
its scarce because its CHEAP!!!
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:19:55 PM EDT
[#32]
I have a feeling that a lot of the raw materials are being used in larger calibers that fetch more per round with just about all calibers flying off the shelves I would be putting my resources into what made me the most money.
As larger calibers begin to sit on the shelves they will put more into 22 production and it will begin to recover, barring of course some new "Event". |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:23:30 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
All 3 of the big US ammo manufacturers have announced expansions to their ammo production lines. I don't know if they're up and running yet though. Adding another production line to produce ammo isn't as simple as ordering a Dillon or RCBS press. You can't just unbox it and start cranking out ammo. The machinery is extremely expensive and takes a long time to setup. I talked to our Federal rep back at the SHOT Show in January. He said Federal was adding in 2 new ammo lines this year. I don't remember his exact numbers, but I think it was going to cost them around $40-$60 million per line. And it takes 9-10 months to build and setup before they can even start producing ammo. So from a manufacturer's perspective, you're looking at a $50+ million investment to increase production, and it takes almost a year to start producing anything. When you know the ammo demand spike is temporary, would you gamble $50 million on the assumption that demand is still going to be high 1-2 years down the road? It takes several years to recoup that investment, and if demand falls back down to where it was in 2012, the company could be losing money for decades until they pay off the new equipment. Not to mention that besides the long-lead time items such as the machinery, there are long lead times for the additional materials (brass, powder, primers, lead and copper) that those new lines will require to run and increase production. Ultimately the available world-wide supply of those materials will come into play and can be a limiting factor on being able to increase production. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:25:47 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Basically wal mart pricing is the lowest that I've seen except blowout sales. That's what I pay. I stockpile so I don't have to pay high prices. For powder and reloading stuff i'll pay 20% above normal price if I really need something but I try to stockpile that as much as I can also. I bought some gander mountain pistol ammo last week because it was for a gun that I just bought and didn't have reloaded ammo for. I paid about 52% higher than normal cost but they were the only ones that had it and I wanted to shoot with family over thanksgiving. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
For the folks that say they can't find 22, what price per round is your refusal point? Basically wal mart pricing is the lowest that I've seen except blowout sales. That's what I pay. I stockpile so I don't have to pay high prices. For powder and reloading stuff i'll pay 20% above normal price if I really need something but I try to stockpile that as much as I can also. I bought some gander mountain pistol ammo last week because it was for a gun that I just bought and didn't have reloaded ammo for. I paid about 52% higher than normal cost but they were the only ones that had it and I wanted to shoot with family over thanksgiving. I think you represent the majority opinion. If they can't buy it at pre-panjc price, they will just wait and complain. No problem with just waiting unless you need the ammo. I easily find 1,000 rounds a week at 6 cent per round on average. I have plenty so I do not snap up every box I run across. The 4 cent a round and cheaper stuff is likely gone forever. Demand will not slack till a major regime change in this country, there are just too many folks that will drop 30 bucks for several pounds of 22 every time they find it. I just checked several gunboards, at 7 cents a round you could build a nice ammo fort. Walmart doesn't sell on gunboards. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:25:49 PM EDT
[#35]
In the spring the shop I work for had about 500k of 22lr come in, normally that would be a 6 month supply for us. At two bricks per person per day we sold out in 2.5 months. It is supply and demand there is no conspiracy.
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:26:20 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
THIS. I am forced, by common sense, to believe that something is going on with ammo "behind the scenes" and that includes .22 LR ammo. I don't care how many 13'ers are buying it at twice the price we older board members think they should be paying, SOMETHING UNUSUAL is going on with ammo - and especially .22 LR ammo and it' s more than a "suppy and demand" issue too. Remember, this government is capable of ANYTHING. Have we forgotten "Fast and Furious" already? A government that would do that is capable of ANYTHING. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I worked at Federal Cartridge in the mid 90's. At full production on the .22 JIT line they could make 7 million .22 LR per day. I am no conspiracy theorist either, but there is no fucking way in hell the 22LR shortage should have lasted this long. THIS. I am forced, by common sense, to believe that something is going on with ammo "behind the scenes" and that includes .22 LR ammo. I don't care how many 13'ers are buying it at twice the price we older board members think they should be paying, SOMETHING UNUSUAL is going on with ammo - and especially .22 LR ammo and it' s more than a "suppy and demand" issue too. Remember, this government is capable of ANYTHING. Have we forgotten "Fast and Furious" already? A government that would do that is capable of ANYTHING. Or it could just be the marketing/sales department playing you. They're probably filling up some warehouses and letting the shortage get everyone riled up so when they finally start releasing stock people will buy more than they initially wanted because "hey, it's 22LR, that stuff's scarce...". If they were to dump it right on the market, people would be reluctant to buy a bunch "because it isn't rare anymore" and "the price is higher than it should be". |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:30:32 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You aren't seeing new manufacturers pop up because it takes alot of capital to open a .22lr production line. You aren't seeing existing manufacturers open new production lines for it because they know that this is just another one of the cyclical demand spikes. Same reason it took several YEARS of high oil prices before oil companies would commit to spending infrastructure on the Eagle Ford shale. They had to be sure the demand and price was consistent. I see alot of people who know very little about the gun business in this thread. Or for that matter, business period.  |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:34:02 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think you represent the majority opinion. If they can't buy it at pre-panjc price, they will just wait and complain. No problem with just waiting unless you need the ammo. I easily find 1,000 rounds a week at 6 cent per round on average. I have plenty so I do not snap up every box I run across. The 4 cent a round and cheaper stuff is likely gone forever. Demand will not slack till a major regime change in this country, there are just too many folks that will drop 30 bucks for several pounds of 22 every time they find it. I just checked several gunboards, at 7 cents a round you could build a nice ammo fort. Walmart doesn't sell on gunboards. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
For the folks that say they can't find 22, what price per round is your refusal point? Basically wal mart pricing is the lowest that I've seen except blowout sales. That's what I pay. I stockpile so I don't have to pay high prices. For powder and reloading stuff i'll pay 20% above normal price if I really need something but I try to stockpile that as much as I can also. I bought some gander mountain pistol ammo last week because it was for a gun that I just bought and didn't have reloaded ammo for. I paid about 52% higher than normal cost but they were the only ones that had it and I wanted to shoot with family over thanksgiving. I think you represent the majority opinion. If they can't buy it at pre-panjc price, they will just wait and complain. No problem with just waiting unless you need the ammo. I easily find 1,000 rounds a week at 6 cent per round on average. I have plenty so I do not snap up every box I run across. The 4 cent a round and cheaper stuff is likely gone forever. Demand will not slack till a major regime change in this country, there are just too many folks that will drop 30 bucks for several pounds of 22 every time they find it. I just checked several gunboards, at 7 cents a round you could build a nice ammo fort. Walmart doesn't sell on gunboards. Don't get me wrong. I don't complain about it. I have enough for a few more years. I'd gladly pay .06/round. That is what I was paying but it isn't there. I don't like paying shipping because I haven't seen any at .06 after shipping. I'll start to hunt a lot if it isn't in stock a year from now but i'm not worried until then. I just look locally when i'm there because I don't need it. The only thing i've been on the hunt for is trailboss powder. I can't find 5's but I found some 9 ounce jugs finally at a local place for only a dollar more than what grafs charges to get me by for now. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:37:19 PM EDT
[#39]
This is soooo funny. "There is no ammo because everyone is buying it".
 It has to BE there before everyone buys it. Between CIL in Canada and CBC in Brazil.....ALL OF THE AMERICAs I speculate that a MINIMUM of 20mil rounds of 22lr per day is being produced. There is NO store here, including Wal-Mart that gets more than 2-3 caes(5000) WHEN they do get any.
ALL ammo is brought into stores via trucks. A truck driver drives the truck. SOMEWHERE truck drivers know WHO is driving to Ammo Company to pick up on a daily bases. Nobody knows?! |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 2:56:31 PM EDT
[#40]
Also some things to take into consideration.
1. These ammo lines may not be running at full production ratr due to commodities. When you buy that much lead / copper / brass / petrochemicals at a time you will be limited by market availability. I am in the oil industry - finished product side - when there is severe market movement, we are put under a cap. Meaning I can only by so many gallons. I'm sure every raw material market is like this. 2. I'm sure large chains such as cabelas and dicks are also stock piling it for sales. 3. The foreign mfg of ammo are tied up with their own markets. 22 is still very popular overseas and often some of the only ammo you can get. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 3:26:27 PM EDT
[#41]
I read most of this thread. I cant understand that if there is still this great demand present, and which looks like will last where's the new guy? For instance Donald Trump loves putting his name on anything that makes money rightfully so. I guess with a little sarcasm is where is Trump ammo or is there no more room in the market for a new guy?
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Posted: 12/7/2013 3:29:59 PM EDT
[#42]
.22 is the least profitable to produce. Simple as that.
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Posted: 12/7/2013 3:31:27 PM EDT
[#43]
they are taking a move from the DeBeers playbook. keep demand high to keep prices high.
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Posted: 12/7/2013 3:33:59 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In the spring the shop I work for had about 500k of 22lr come in, normally that would be a 6 month supply for us. At two bricks per person per day we sold out in 2.5 months. It is supply and demand there is no conspiracy. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 3:37:37 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I read most of this thread. I cant understand that if there is still this great demand present, and which looks like will last where's the new guy? For instance Donald Trump loves putting his name on anything that makes money rightfully so. I guess with a little sarcasm is where is Trump ammo or is there no more room in the market for a new guy? I don't know the specifics but that sort of equipment would probably take 12-18 months to get into full production and years to pay off (atleast 5 probably more?). I don't know ammo but I know business. That situation ends in losses or bankruptcy. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 3:37:49 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Also some things to take into consideration. 1. These ammo lines may not be running at full production ratr due to commodities. When you buy that much lead / copper / brass / petrochemicals at a time you will be limited by market availability. I am in the oil industry - finished product side - when there is severe market movement, we are put under a cap. Meaning I can only by so many gallons. I'm sure every raw material market is like this. 2. I'm sure large chains such as cabelas and dicks are also stock piling it for sales. 3. The foreign mfg of ammo are tied up with their own markets. 22 is still very popular overseas and often some of the only ammo you can get. ^^^^ This, how do yall think that Dicks and Bass Pro were able to run sales on .22lr for black friday without hoarding some of it for themselves |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 3:43:58 PM EDT
[#47]
Here's another factor: semi-auto .22's with high cap magazines. Since I've had my M&P 15-22, I've gone through an exponentially greater amount of ammo than I used to. I've got 4 25 round mags and one 35 rounder, and I'll go through a 525 round brick in no time at all. If my boys are shooting, too, then we'll go through two or three bricks in an afternoon of shooting. I've also got a 10/22 with four 25 round mags, and an ATI STG-44 with two 25 round mags. These things eat ammo like crazy.
Since the shortage, I've had my boys shoot the Cricket. That has stretched my .22 ammo supply out quite a bit. More shooters + more guns + more hi-cap guns + expensive center fire ammo = .22 shortage. Sorry, no gov't conspiracy needed. This deal is strictly demand driven. I'm not complaining. The more shooters, the harder it is for liberals to ban guns. I just want to see the manufacturers step up with supply. They may be sluggish because they think it is Sandy Hook. It isn't. This demand will be sustained, but might ease slightly as .223 and other center fire becomes more available and less expensive. I know I've been shooting more .223 lately, and less .22, as well. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 7:01:00 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I talked to a gun guy who was working at Sports Authority just the other day. He said there are old men who drive up to places like Wal-Mart, park, and wait for the trucks to show up every morning. It's the same small group of guys who are going around our town buying it just as its unloaded. I wish they would just raise the price and put an end to this. I've heard about the rednecks & old men too. I hear you can find them at the flea markets. The biggest problem in the near future (IMHO): Is that the nation's last lead smelter has fallen to EPA's axe. |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 7:03:47 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The problem started with the frenzy last year. People purchased .22 firearms, because they were cheap and available. Then they bought out all the ammo! The people who owned .22's bought the ammo, causing the hoarding factor that continues today. The ammo isn't being used, its being hoarded! Solution..... Stop looking and buying the junk for a few months. THEN you will see it stocked on the shelves and at a reasonable price. It's all about sale and demand and the ammo manufactures have us all over the table. I agree the price on XM855 has dropped down from the panic prices from jan to mid summer |
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Posted: 12/7/2013 7:06:19 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There's a video on YouTube from the CCI factory saying they make 4,000,000 rounds per day. Someone above says it's 6,000,000. And someone says Federal makes 7,000,000 a day. Say that's 13,000,000 per day between the two. There are 40,000 gun stores in America. That means each one gets 325 rounds per store per day. Then, with other manufacturers and importers, let's say it's 1000 rounds per store per day. That's just about nothing. I have 30,000 rounds on back order at Midway. That's a month's supply for one store. Add to that the increase in 22LR weapons and all the new shooters and new hoarders in the last year. It's going to take a while to catch up. In Blue ^
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