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 Atomic_Ferret
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:13:22 AM
THE IMAGE ABOVE IS A PAID ADVERTISEMENT As a construction worker, I see part of it all the time, everything from illegals being paid "under the table" to clients asking me to do "sidework" off the books. Beyond that, there are plenty of people running little enterprises on places like Craigslist, flipping cars, etc. Then there is the more nefarious stuff, things like drug sales, black market stuff, stolen and counterfeit goods, prostitution and the like. As a percentage, I would say that probably 30% of all money that changes hands is off the books. What do you guys think? |
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piccolo
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:22:48 AM
[Last Edit: 8/9/2012 10:26:24 AM by piccolo]
When you think about it, $10/hour off the books is pretty much like $15 or more on the books.
Considering that, I'd bet the numbers are astronomical. And that ain't counting the kid down the street that shovels snow out of your driveway a couple of times a year. ETA I know a guy that makes a pretty good living flipping shit on eBay and Craigslist. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:26:05 AM
As a percentage, I would say that probably 30% of all money that changes hands is off the books. What do you guys think?
Probably not too far off...and probably half or more of that percentage is collecting some sort of welfare. I'm all for making a little cash on the side...but for some, they make 100% of their income "under the table". |
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Atomic_Ferret
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:28:44 AM
Originally Posted By piccolo:
When you think about it, $10/hour off the books is pretty much like $15 or more on the books. Considering that, I'd bet the numbers are astronomical. And that ain't counting the kid down the street that shovels snow out of your driveway a couple of times a year. ETA I know a guy that makes a pretty good living flipping shit on eBay and Craigslist. Be around $19/hr in Ca given the tax rate for self employment (not accounting for deductions). And I am including the kid that shovels snow, the babysitter, the friend of a friend who fixes your car for a couple of bucks, all that. |
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Mattyvac
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:29:06 AM
It's ALLOT.
You forget bartenders, waiters, bar backs, etc; Who get paid in cash and never claim it. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:30:00 AM
I'm curious too. I know it's pretty robust in Italy.
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ghengiskhabb
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:32:13 AM
Factoring in the illegal drug trade, prostitution, selling stolen property, and the growing distaste for the government in general.
30% sounds plausible, and that number is probably increasing. |
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Atomic_Ferret
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:35:29 AM
Originally Posted By ghengiskhabb:
Factoring in the illegal drug trade, prostitution, selling stolen property, and the growing distaste for the government in general. 30% sounds plausible, and that number is probably increasing. I hear a lot more of it then I used to. (ancedotal reports of several hundred thousand dollar remodels being done on high end homes, sans permits and for green cash.) Also, "What is your cash price" is an increasingly more common question. Of course we do not get involved in things like that since that would be illegal. |
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MotorMouth
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:37:39 AM
Billions of dollars.
When I was younger, I always wanted to go the black market, because it sounded like they had a lot of cool stuff for sale.  |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:41:28 AM
If we could add a [backgroundmusic] tag to this thread it would be "A Country Boy Can Survive" . . . . .
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:42:34 AM
Hmmm, 30%, in my opinion, seems a bit high.
But still, it wouldn't surprise me though. Despite the frequency of such transactions, I am thinking that there are hundreds of million dollar deals between corporations all the time that are on the books and account for the majority of transactions. The government makes its big money off of deals like that. With the drug trade though it could certainly skew the numbers. |
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Lacoochee
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:55:28 AM
[Last Edit: 8/9/2012 10:55:49 AM by Lacoochee]
And just think if we switched to the Fair Tax - Fair Tax - we would capture all of that and eliminate the nightmare IRS all in one beautiful swoop.
However the Orcs in the Federal Government would never agree to this, as they would not be able to make us do what they want via an Income Tax where they get to award behaviors and punish others at a whim. |
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douglasmorris99
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Posted: 8/9/2012 10:55:53 AM
Trillion and a half a year
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cheez
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:15:25 AM
I have no idea of the percentages or anything but i know it has to be huge. Given that it will not be long before we become a cashless society. Everyone will have cards and every penny will be tracked. I'm by no means a tinfoil hat guy but the writing is on the wall.
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:16:55 AM
Bartering is where it is at. Why exchange money at all when you can swap services?
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:17:48 AM
Originally Posted By cheez:
I have no idea of the percentages or anything but i know it has to be huge. Given that it will not be long before we become a cashless society. Everyone will have cards and every penny will be tracked. I'm by no means a tinfoil hat guy but the writing is on the wall. Then people will start bardering like the WTT on the EE. Or use more gold/silver coins. |
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piccolo
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:23:06 AM
Originally Posted By h3smith:
Bartering is where it is at. Why exchange money at all when you can swap services? Thaat generally becomes a pretty good win/win situation, too. Remember that rusty old widget in your garage you been meaning to take to the dump when you got around to it? When someone offers to rebuild your engine for the widget and the cost of parts it makes both of you you happy campers that you didn't go to the dump with it. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:38:13 AM
About equal to what our House and Congress does 'under the table'.
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Mazeman
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:42:13 AM
My guess is more like 10%.
Under the table stuff is usually small scale. |
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Sturmgewehr-58
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:44:44 AM
Back when I owned a construction business, I paid enough in kickbacks to a certain company director to pay his son's way through college.
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:47:07 AM
[Last Edit: 8/9/2012 11:49:12 AM by Cdog]
Originally Posted By TheGunCollector:
I'm curious too. I know it's pretty robust in Italy. Must be. When we were in Rome back in May we asked the hotel concierge to get us a cab. He called his brother. LOL! At least he had a nice Mercedes. In Socal the bater & trade is a way of life. From yard work to remodels on your house. Theres always a way to get things done without paying the trolls tax to cross the bridge. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 11:52:54 AM
This is nothing new. Back in the 1850's Harriet Tubman ran a complete railroad underground.
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Fatbert
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:26:38 PM
Originally Posted By hkmp5s: This is nothing new. Back in the 1850's Harriet Tubman ran a complete railroad underground. I raffed. |
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iRidiculous
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:28:37 PM
I'd guess it's closer to 50%
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Bubbles
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:33:49 PM
Originally Posted By piccolo:
I know a guy that makes a pretty good living flipping shit on eBay and Craigslist. eBay forces payments via PayPal, which reports transactions to the IRS at the end of each year. CL not so much. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:37:27 PM
[Last Edit: 8/9/2012 12:40:33 PM by NotAFudd]
IIRC IRS estimate in 2001 was 345 billion
Also unreported income is around 20% of total declared AGI in any average year (1945 to 2010). Not sure how much of that is shadow economy or not though. |
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StagArmslower
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:37:45 PM
How it can be so high if legit business is starving?
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9mmRandy
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:39:50 PM
Originally Posted By Bubbles:
Originally Posted By piccolo:
I know a guy that makes a pretty good living flipping shit on eBay and Craigslist. eBay forces payments via PayPal, which reports transactions to the IRS at the end of each year. CL not so much. True, but only if it's over $500 a month being withdrawn from PP. |
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9mmRandy
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:40:54 PM
Originally Posted By StagArmslower:
How it can be so high if legit business is starving? I would think that fosters a stronger black market? |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:41:34 PM
Originally Posted By StagArmslower:
How it can be so high if legit business is starving? Illegals working as maids, lawn people etc, drug trade, under the table shop employees, under the table handymen, prostitution, etc. |
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ghengiskhabb
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:47:57 PM
Originally Posted By StagArmslower:
How it can be so high if legit business is starving? Every untracked dollar you earn is worth $1.50 of tracked dollar. Furthermore, if you can get enough of your income off the books you can apply for government benefits as a reward for your unethical conduct. Government doesn't act to curb crime, it encourages it.  |
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Atomic_Ferret
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:48:48 PM
Originally Posted By NotAFudd:
Originally Posted By StagArmslower:
How it can be so high if legit business is starving? Illegals working as maids, lawn people etc, drug trade, under the table shop employees, under the table handymen, prostitution, etc. Plenty of legit businesses forced to go quasi underground in an attempt to stay alive too. Hard to compete when you are above board and your competitors rely on under the table help, illegals, cash payments and the like. Combined with the "new economy" bottom feeder customers it makes it all but impossible to compete. Prevailing attitude seems to be "if you ain't cheatin, you ain't tryin". It truly is a race to the bottom. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:53:12 PM
Originally Posted By Atomic_Ferret:
Originally Posted By NotAFudd:
Originally Posted By StagArmslower:
How it can be so high if legit business is starving? Illegals working as maids, lawn people etc, drug trade, under the table shop employees, under the table handymen, prostitution, etc. Plenty of legit businesses forced to go quasi underground in an attempt to stay alive too. Hard to compete when you are above board and your competitors rely on under the table help, illegals, cash payments and the like. Combined with the "new economy" bottom feeder customers it makes it all but impossible to compete. Prevailing attitude seems to be "if you ain't cheatin, you ain't tryin". It truly is a race to the bottom. Not always true but sometimes. We are up to almost three thousand residential cleaning customers and all of our maids speak English, are American Citizens, all receive W-2 wages, background checked, etc. We just know how to market and differentiate ourselves. That $60/ clean maid seems great until she steals $8000 worth of jewelry. |
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graysonp
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:55:38 PM
[Last Edit: 8/9/2012 3:20:59 PM by graysonp]
I'm guessing it's huge. Bigger than the IRS or other analysts have estimated. My guess would be 50% of the US economy, so if things were properly reported,the GDP would probably be nearly double what we believe it is now.
Most US GDP comes from small businesses, not huge corporations. And there's no way to judge how much cash is being hidden/unreported from the millions of small businesses in the US. There are roughly 27 million small businesses in the US (not including those doing work without filing as a business). If each small business, on average, didn't report $5000 worth of income every year, that's roughly $130 billion that goes unreported to the IRS. Sure, many of those businesses are 100% honest, but there are plenty of people who are dealing in cash and not reporting huge chunks of income. Or consider that there are about 300 million people in the US. If those 300 million people take in $500 a year on average that is unreported, that's also $150 billion in unreported income. I don't think it's a stretch to believe that the average person will generate $500 worth of cash income in a year that they don't report on their taxes. Mow a few yards, sell some stuff around the house, etc and you're hitting that average pretty easily. That doesn't take into account entire industries where complete salaries go unreported like illegal labor, drug trade, prostitution, etc. When you really play with the numbers numbers, it's pretty easy to believe that our actual GDP would be doubled if we really had accurate reporting of economic transactions in the US. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 12:59:12 PM
Originally Posted By StagArmslower:
How it can be so high if legit business is starving? Lower costs to operate under the table. I left a regular commercial gig I had for ten + years to pursue other things. Why? A legal business operator pays his crew a competitive wage, has workman's comp, and general liability. My competitors that showed up in the last few years.... none of the above. A couple "American" business owners/foremen (frontmen), and complete crews fresh from the border. Now which do you think is cheaper to hire on to do a job. Granted you're willing to look past quality and the hiring of illegals all in the name of making more dollars? To add a figure to the question, my business brought in about 180K per year (legally). Greed has a lot to do with it all. |
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KingRat
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:00:31 PM
This is why they have been pushing so hard for a cashless society. The government would like every cent that trades hands to be trackable.
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:01:56 PM
Originally Posted By Atomic_Ferret:
Originally Posted By NotAFudd:
Originally Posted By StagArmslower:
How it can be so high if legit business is starving? Illegals working as maids, lawn people etc, drug trade, under the table shop employees, under the table handymen, prostitution, etc. Plenty of legit businesses forced to go quasi underground in an attempt to stay alive too. Hard to compete when you are above board and your competitors rely on under the table help, illegals, cash payments and the like. Combined with the "new economy" bottom feeder customers it makes it all but impossible to compete. Prevailing attitude seems to be "if you ain't cheatin, you ain't tryin". It truly is a race to the bottom. A race I never desired to be in. There are still those of us out here that think doing things by the rules will get us where we want to be. At least our pride tells us so. |
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jeffco55
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:23:33 PM
[Last Edit: 8/9/2012 1:24:55 PM by jeffco55]
Its my responsibility to myself and my family to be as fiscally conservative as possible. This means exploiting every possible advantage I have to lower my tax burden and to prepare for the (hopeful) day I get to retire. People would be smart to learn some blue collar skills to not only be able to do home repairs for themselves but also to trade services with like minded people.
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:29:05 PM
Originally Posted By jeffco55:
Its my responsibility to myself and my family to be as fiscally conservative as possible. This means exploiting every possible advantage I have to lower my tax burden and to prepare for the (hopeful) day I get to retire. People would be smart to learn some blue collar skills to not only be able to do home repairs for themselves but also to trade services with like minded people. I second that. The world of construction and fixing things/building has kept food on my plate, a roof over my head, and clothes on my back for many years. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:29:27 PM
Originally Posted By Mazeman:
My guess is more like 10%. Under the table stuff is usually small scale. Probably depends on what state. In Hawaii it is almost a way of life. Probably higher than 30% there. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:35:02 PM
I've seen this topic discussed in academic circles, and no one could give an accurate answer. There is just no way to get an accurate tally on things that people are going to lie about, or things that are just not tracked.
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:36:18 PM
Originally Posted By Lacoochee:
And just think if we switched to the Fair Tax - Fair Tax - we would capture all of that and eliminate the nightmare IRS all in one beautiful swoop. However the Orcs in the Federal Government would never agree to this, as they would not be able to make us do what they want via an Income Tax where they get to award behaviors and punish others at a whim. I love the Fair Tax..........but I will argue the 'underground economy' is a good thing. It is simply a transaction between parties that does not include the government. We should really embrace this but people have been brainwashed into thinking if it's not gov approved, it's nefarious, a Black Market. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:37:12 PM
Parents should start letting their kids know that this is not only a good backup plan, but possibly their kids' only option for employment. There are only so many jobs available for "money traders", CEOs, etc. When the false economy that props all that up goes in the shitter, skills that can't be outsourced or done away with will be in demand. The average age of a master plumber I think is 56, and there are damn few kids rushing out to become plumbers. Also, vo-tech schools aren't teaching these trades like they once did.
Originally Posted By EHenry:
Originally Posted By jeffco55:
Its my responsibility to myself and my family to be as fiscally conservative as possible. This means exploiting every possible advantage I have to lower my tax burden and to prepare for the (hopeful) day I get to retire. People would be smart to learn some blue collar skills to not only be able to do home repairs for themselves but also to trade services with like minded people. I second that. The world of construction and fixing things/building has kept food on my plate, a roof over my head, and clothes on my back for many years. |
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:41:00 PM
Originally Posted By EHenry:
Originally Posted By StagArmslower:
How it can be so high if legit business is starving? Lower costs to operate under the table. I left a regular commercial gig I had for ten + years to pursue other things. Why? A legal business operator pays his crew a competitive wage, has workman's comp, and general liability. My competitors that showed up in the last few years.... none of the above. A couple "American" business owners/foremen (frontmen), and complete crews fresh from the border. Now which do you think is cheaper to hire on to do a job. Granted you're willing to look past quality and the hiring of illegals all in the name of making more dollars? To add a figure to the question, my business brought in about 180K per year (legally). Greed has a lot to do with it all. There is cheating and then there is survival. We all have to put food on the plate somehow. Construction companies are beating each other up to a point that is beyond ridiculous. |
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Fatbert
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:42:41 PM
Originally Posted By Dehammer: Originally Posted By Lacoochee: And just think if we switched to the Fair Tax - Fair Tax - we would capture all of that and eliminate the nightmare IRS all in one beautiful swoop. However the Orcs in the Federal Government would never agree to this, as they would not be able to make us do what they want via an Income Tax where they get to award behaviors and punish others at a whim. I love the Fair Tax..........but I will argue the 'underground economy' is a good thing. It is simply a transaction between parties that does not include the government. We should really embrace this but people have been brainwashed into thinking if it's not gov approved, it's nefarious, a Black Market. Yep. The term "black market" is actually a misnomer. What we're talking about is better termed the "grey market," particularly when dealing with unpaid SS/Medicare taxes. |
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humanitarian2112
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Posted: 8/9/2012 1:50:52 PM
Originally Posted By TheGunCollector:
I'm curious too. I know it's pretty robust in Italy. ROR. No shit? |
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GeorgeInNePa
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Posted: 8/9/2012 2:00:10 PM
Originally Posted By MotorMouth:
Billions of dollars. When I was younger, I always wanted to go the black market, because it sounded like they had a lot of cool stuff for sale. racist |
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jeffco55
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Posted: 8/9/2012 2:02:20 PM
Originally Posted By rcsguns:
Parents should start letting their kids know that this is not only a good backup plan, but possibly their kids' only option for employment. There are only so many jobs available for "money traders", CEOs, etc. When the false economy that props all that up goes in the shitter, skills that can't be outsourced or done away with will be in demand. The average age of a master plumber I think is 56, and there are damn few kids rushing out to become plumbers. Also, vo-tech schools aren't teaching these trades like they once did. Originally Posted By EHenry:
Originally Posted By jeffco55:
Its my responsibility to myself and my family to be as fiscally conservative as possible. This means exploiting every possible advantage I have to lower my tax burden and to prepare for the (hopeful) day I get to retire. People would be smart to learn some blue collar skills to not only be able to do home repairs for themselves but also to trade services with like minded people. I second that. The world of construction and fixing things/building has kept food on my plate, a roof over my head, and clothes on my back for many years. My children are young, not even elementary school aged, but we plan to either pay for a real degree or a vo-tech degree. No one is getting our help to obtain a 15th century under water basket weaving masters degree. My son will learn how to do home repair and vehicle repair from me just like I did from my father. My wife is a hair stylist and apprenticed for 4 years to get her license and she can easily make $100k a year(some women at the salon she worked at pulled in $300k). I have a friend who is a plumber and he makes a comfortable $75k working for a local company. |
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TheRX7Project
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Posted: 8/9/2012 2:02:50 PM
Originally Posted By ghengiskhabb: Factoring in the illegal drug trade, prostitution, selling stolen property, and the growing distaste for the government in general. 30% sounds plausible, and that number is probably increasing. I'd almost be willing to bet it's closer to 40%... when I was an electrician, I *knew plenty of people who* did side jobs for cash, and not a single drywaller I ran into spoke English. |
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TerribleTom
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Posted: 8/9/2012 2:04:40 PM
Originally Posted By Mazeman: My guess is more like 10%. Under the table stuff is usually small scale. Are you including the entire illegal drug business in that figure? 30% seems high, but 10% seems low. Between the drug biz, illegal aliens in agriculture, a tremendous percentage of the construction business, and the hordes of eBay/Craigslist semi-pro sellers... It's a hell of a lot in any case |
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23pistol23
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Posted: 8/9/2012 2:05:59 PM
[Last Edit: 8/9/2012 2:09:32 PM by 23pistol23]
I'm guessing its closer to 50% or more.
Think about all the people receiving handouts. 50%. A lot of them make something extra. Not to mention hairstylist that just rent a booth at a salon and don't report. Waiters, Bartenders, lawn guys, craigslist sellers, etc. Then think about all of the big time drug, sex, gun, trade going on. 30% seems like a minimum. |
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