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 Z_0 
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:24:45 AM
THE IMAGE ABOVE IS A PAID ADVERTISEMENT Dallara Says Greek Euro Exit May Exceed 1 Trillion Euros
The cost of Greece exiting the euro would be unmanageable and probably exceed the 1 trillion euros ($1.25 trillion) previously estimated by the Institute of International Finance, the group’s managing director said. The Washington-based IIF’s projection from earlier this year is “a bit dated now” and “probably on the low side,” Charles Dallara said in an interview in Rome today. “Those who think that Europe, and more broadly the global economy, are really prepared for a Greek exit should think again.” The European Central Bank’s exposure to Greek liabilities is more than twice as big as the ECB’s capital, said Dallara, who represented banks in their negotiations with the Greek government on its debt restructuring. As a result, he predicted the bank would be unable to provide liquidity and stabilize the euro-area financial sector. “The ECB will be insolvent” if Greece were to exit the euro, Dallara said. “Europe would have to first and foremost recapitalize its central bank.” Concern about Europe’s crisis has erased about $4 trillion from global equity values, as policymakers continue to argue over how to stabilize the 17-nation euro area and limit regional contagion. European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said today that contingency planning for Greece leaving the euro “isn’t a priority,” while Morgan Stanley economist Elga Bartsch has said Greece has a 1-in-3 chance of a euro exit. ... |
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DK-Prof
PsychoPolitical Master & King of the PureSkins(TM)
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:28:32 AM
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem.
The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. |
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KaiK
Gun Enthusiast
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:31:30 AM
Greek food is good. I think the world will not skip a beat.
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:44:08 AM
Popcorn material, not pmag-popping material.
Enjoy the 3-day weekend. |
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Mojo_Jojo
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:47:33 AM
I really don't believe in global/financial type conspiracies, but "too big to fail" institutions guaranteed by taxpayer dollars trouble me. I don't believe anyone really knows how much total exposure USA based financial institutions have from Greek/Italy/Spain default. I'm guessing a LOT more than people think, that the large financial institutions recognized this a few years back and have been very busy unwinding themselves from the exposure as quietly & quickly as possible. Can they divest before the house of cards falls??? We'll see.
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cchurchi
Burning gas and gunpowder since 1977
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:48:27 AM
The only way out is lots and lots of hard work and I don't think the Greeks are up to it.
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victorgonzales
destroyer of liberals
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:51:56 AM
looks like my predictions on the Euro have all come true. Also looks like the many people on here who used to constantly talk about the Euro becoming the new reserve currency and the USD tanking have been pretty silent. Ill say it again for those who don't pay attention since I have been here. USD is mega king turd on shit hill and the Euro was doomed from the get go. The dollar will remain king of the world and the Euro will be below parity PERMANENTLY if it still exists by 2020
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victorgonzales
destroyer of liberals
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:52:53 AM
Originally Posted By Mojo_Jojo: The USA will make out like bandits from the fall of the Euro to where it belongs. So will USD. I really don't believe in global/financial type conspiracies, but "too big to fail" institutions guaranteed by taxpayer dollars trouble me. I don't believe anyone really knows how much total exposure USA based financial institutions have from Greek/Italy/Spain default. I'm guessing a LOT more than people think, that the large financial institutions recognized this a few years back and have been very busy unwinding themselves from the exposure as quietly & quickly as possible. Can they divest before the house of cards falls??? We'll see. |
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KaiK
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:59:55 AM
Originally Posted By victorgonzales:
Originally Posted By Mojo_Jojo:
The USA will make out like bandits from the fall of the Euro to where it belongs. So will USD.
I really don't believe in global/financial type conspiracies, but "too big to fail" institutions guaranteed by taxpayer dollars trouble me. I don't believe anyone really knows how much total exposure USA based financial institutions have from Greek/Italy/Spain default. I'm guessing a LOT more than people think, that the large financial institutions recognized this a few years back and have been very busy unwinding themselves from the exposure as quietly & quickly as possible. Can they divest before the house of cards falls??? We'll see. Oh, cheap European vacations, the wine is good there too. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:02:07 AM
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem. The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. Or France at this point. 
If the EU breaks up how does that impact NATO? Will there be negative results for the alliance with member nations so at odds with one another? |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:02:43 AM
Won't affect us much. The US will more than likely get a lot stronger as the euro experiment collapses.
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sherrick13
Nice JBT that says FBO
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:07:02 AM
The Greek exit is already mostly figured into the markets.
Watch, inital panic dip, but within a month (hell 2 weeks probably) they will be back to 98% + the pre exit levels. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:07:47 AM
Originally Posted By SilentType:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem. The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. Or France at this point.
If the EU breaks up how does that impact NATO? Will there be negative results for the alliance with member nations so at odds with one another? How much do we need NATO at this point? We basically are NATO. We can maintain our relations with the euro nations that we are already buddied up with; despite whatever goes on with their economy... That alone will keep Euro members from getting too aggressive with one another. That is why we do stuff like this: http://www.defencegreece.com/index.php/2011/10/the-u-s-approved-to-grant-400-m1a1-abrams-to-greece |
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sherrick13
Nice JBT that says FBO
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:07:53 AM
Originally Posted By victorgonzales: looks like my predictions on the Euro have all come true. Also looks like the many people on here who used to constantly talk about the Euro becoming the new reserve currency and the USD tanking have been pretty silent. Ill say it again for those who don't pay attention since I have been here. USD is mega king turd on shit hill and the Euro was doomed from the get go. The dollar will remain king of the world and the Euro will be below parity PERMANENTLY if it still exists by 2020 But the dollar IS GOING INTO THE TOILET!!!!~! TOILET I TELL YOU!!!! |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:08:02 AM
Originally Posted By blazin98:
Won't affect us much. The US will more than likely get a lot stronger as the euro experiment collapses. It's the only thing keeping the world from giving up the dollar as a reserve currency. |
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Chaingun
Tuff shit...start chewing मन्
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:08:41 AM
Originally Posted By cchurchi: The only way out is lots and lots of hard work and I don't think the Greeks are up to it. The Greeks are on perpetual vacation |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:10:43 AM
Originally Posted By blazin98:
Originally Posted By SilentType:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem. The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. Or France at this point.
If the EU breaks up how does that impact NATO? Will there be negative results for the alliance with member nations so at odds with one another? How much do we need NATO at this point? We basically are NATO. We can maintain our relations with the euro nations that we are already buddied up with; despite whatever goes on with their economy... That alone will keep Euro members from getting too aggressive with one another. That is why we do stuff like this: http://www.defencegreece.com/index.php/2011/10/the-u-s-approved-to-grant-400-m1a1-abrams-to-greece After seeing the results of the recent Russian elections and the trend toward revolution with the world economy doing so poorly I still like that "an attack on one is an attack on all" thing.  |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:18:10 AM
Originally Posted By SilentType:
Originally Posted By blazin98:
Originally Posted By SilentType:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem. The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. Or France at this point.
If the EU breaks up how does that impact NATO? Will there be negative results for the alliance with member nations so at odds with one another? How much do we need NATO at this point? We basically are NATO. We can maintain our relations with the euro nations that we are already buddied up with; despite whatever goes on with their economy... That alone will keep Euro members from getting too aggressive with one another. That is why we do stuff like this: http://www.defencegreece.com/index.php/2011/10/the-u-s-approved-to-grant-400-m1a1-abrams-to-greece After seeing the results of the recent Russian elections and the trend toward revolution with the world economy doing so poorly I still like that "an attack on one is an attack on all" thing. Yeah, but the thing is, Russia knows if they were to attack a western european nation- we would come in there and slap their shit. Russia can't/won't do a thing for a long time. Certain NATO countries going broke won't change that. They aren't the Soviets anymore. They know their place in the world, despite the badass propoganda pictures putin puts out
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KaiK
Gun Enthusiast
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:20:12 AM
Originally Posted By Chaingun:
Originally Posted By cchurchi:
The only way out is lots and lots of hard work and I don't think the Greeks are up to it. The Greeks are on perpetual vacation I will disagree. The fisherman caught some Damn tasty fish and the chef tossed a mean salad. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:21:44 AM
In the end it's all about the math. The math says what is unsustainable is unsustainable, no more, no less.
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MountainMan
Aint no God in Mexico
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:27:33 AM
Am I the only one that thinks something completely different when they see "Greek exit"?
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victorgonzales
destroyer of liberals
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:43:08 AM
Originally Posted By sherrick13: The Greek exit is already mostly figured into the markets. Watch, inital panic dip, but within a month (hell 2 weeks probably) they will be back to 98% + the pre exit levels. agreed. I took the ride on hollande and greece a couple weeks ago shorting the Euro. It will still be in a long term decline though with it's ups and downs until it lands somewhere below parity. |
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victorgonzales
destroyer of liberals
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:43:38 AM
Originally Posted By sherrick13: Originally Posted By victorgonzales: looks like my predictions on the Euro have all come true. Also looks like the many people on here who used to constantly talk about the Euro becoming the new reserve currency and the USD tanking have been pretty silent. Ill say it again for those who don't pay attention since I have been here. USD is mega king turd on shit hill and the Euro was doomed from the get go. The dollar will remain king of the world and the Euro will be below parity PERMANENTLY if it still exists by 2020 But the dollar IS GOING INTO THE TOILET!!!!~! TOILET I TELL YOU!!!! gold plated toilet with liquid platinum water. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:44:20 AM
As opposed to what exactly... Throwing more money down the black hole that is the greek economy? Cut off the gangrenous limb or wait till the whole organism dies......
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raven
Bitter Clinger
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Posted: 5/26/2012 1:55:25 AM
Originally Posted By KaiK: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Originally Posted By cchurchi: The only way out is lots and lots of hard work and I don't think the Greeks are up to it. The Greeks are on perpetual vacation I will disagree. The fisherman caught some Damn tasty fish and the chef tossed a mean salad.  |
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reelserious
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Posted: 5/26/2012 8:20:21 AM
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem. The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. This |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 8:29:32 AM
Originally Posted By SilentType:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem. The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. Or France at this point.
If the EU breaks up how does that impact NATO? Will there be negative results for the alliance with member nations so at odds with one another? IMO anyway, we should be looking toward more of a focus of an alliance with the British Commonwealth countries, along with countries in eastern europe ( Poland, etc ) and some countries in the pacific and asia, South Korea, Japan, etc. France and Germany are wealthy first world countries, we can not afford to spend any money on their defense anymore. YMMV. |
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teamr2
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Posted: 5/26/2012 8:37:30 AM
As strong dollar sounds great but it is not all roses. It hurts corporate earnings, increases trade deficits, cal lead to higher interest rates (unlikely with our debt), and in many instances of prolonged currency strength, leads to a recession. Does not matter if it is the Euro, Yen, USD, or Yuan, in a global environment it is just math. I bet it is just the scenario Bernake needs to print up some more dinero.
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Posted: 5/26/2012 8:45:48 AM
The only way to keep Greece in the Eurozone is for the core countries to just give Greece money. No "loans", no "conditions", none of that... just hand them money or straight-up forgive all of their loans. Anything short of that, they will exit.
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Mojo_Jojo
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Posted: 5/26/2012 8:51:21 AM
Originally Posted By caexpat: The only way to keep Greece in the Eurozone is for the core countries to just give Greece money. No "loans", no "conditions", none of that... just hand them money or straight-up forgive all of their loans. Anything short of that, they will exit. This is where I see this is going, too... |
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LetFreedomBeep
Its gotta be noon somewhere...
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Posted: 5/26/2012 8:54:55 AM
Greece is the warm up. Spain is the real deal and italy is not too far behind it. Bankia will go down any day.
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2tom2
Enjoying Life 24/365
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Posted: 5/26/2012 9:13:12 AM
The way I see it is as long as no Military starts hurling munitions at another then it will be no more than a couple weeks of a bumpy boat ride before the markets smooth out and head up.
I do not mind seeing the "Euro" a little higher than the USD for the a couple more years. It is in our better interest. We all know that there is little chance that the Euro will stay that long term. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 10:29:20 AM
I'd like to be a fly on the wall at next week's Bilderberg meeting.
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Posted: 5/26/2012 10:35:46 AM
The UK is preparing to 'control' immigration when SHTF and able bodied Greeks decide it's time to leave for greener pastures.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/9291493/Theresa-May-well-stop-migrants-if-euro-collapses.html Apparently, the immigrants won't have an easy stroll across the border into the land of dole & chips. Hello WORLD! Does anyone remember Ireland circa 1845? Ireland's population was reduced to near half by starvation, disease and emmigration. Greece will be for sale like NO after Katrina. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 10:40:25 AM
Originally Posted By LetFreedomBeep:
Greece is the warm up. Spain is the real deal and italy is not too far behind it. Bankia will go down any day. Bamkia just requested a 24 BILLION bail out to stay liquid. 100% FAIL. Soon. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 10:44:50 AM
Originally Posted By Kevyn:
Greece will be for sale like NO after Katrina. Yep. The globalists are lining up to grab choice islands at fire sale prices. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:10:25 AM
[Last Edit: 5/26/2012 11:49:08 AM by Kevyn]
UK only wants the 'best & brightest' immigrants ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/9056516/Damian-Green-we-only-want-the-brightest-immigrants.html Damian Green: 'we only want the brightest immigrants'
The Immigration Minister says the Government will meet its target of reducing net migration into the UK by the end of this parliament. The Government has pledged to cut net migration from the current 242,000 a year to the "tens of thousands", with planned overhauls of every immigration route including work, study, family visas and settlement rights. Mr Green said it is not just about numbers and is time to also move the debate on to ask how immigration can be a positive for the country. "It makes no sense at a time of high unemployment for us to be bringing in a large number of unskilled workers. But to become a dymantic and susessful economy we need to do is get, not just our fair share, but more than our fair share of the brightest and the best," he said. Government's new ''selective'' immigration policy that will give preferential treatment to investors, entrepreneurs and world-class artists, dancers, musicians and academics. Mr Green said: "We'll actively go out and look for them, scientist, researcher and so on, but at the same time we shouldn't be bring in large numbers of relatively unskilled workers because they will be doing jobs that British people can do." My gut tells me this is not going to work out the way they're hoping it will or intend it to work. Something about ... unintended consequences ... of discriminating against political & economic refugees. Hello UN intervention with humanitarian disaster assistance and holding camps. Anyone remember Bosnia-Herzegovina? Greece is going to seem them fleeing by the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands IF GREECE EXITS THE EU after the Euro disaster. Where are they going to go? What nation is going to accept them? What's going to happen to them when they arrive? What's going to happen when they're joined by the Portuguese and Spanish emigrants? There is a potential shit storm of an emigration/immigration disaster building just beyond the horizon. Portugal & Spain will also be for sale! Great time to have a few billion stashed away for rainy day real estate investments! |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:19:56 AM
Tag for home reading.
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:22:00 AM
Originally Posted By blazin98:
Originally Posted By SilentType:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem. The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. Or France at this point.
If the EU breaks up how does that impact NATO? Will there be negative results for the alliance with member nations so at odds with one another? How much do we need NATO at this point? We basically are NATO. I agree. NATO was great when there was a huge Russian threat. Now, meh. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:23:39 AM
I really need to buy some EUO badly.
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raven
Bitter Clinger
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:29:23 AM
Sounds vaguely dirty. "Time for the ol' Greek Exit"
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CarbineDad
Rust Never Sleeps
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:38:15 AM
Coming soon, the Zimbabwe Euro
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Bubbatheredneck
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:40:16 AM
Originally Posted By cchurchi: The only way out is lots and lots of hard work and I don't think the Greeks are up to it. Hungry Greeks will be. Give it a bit of time.
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:41:45 AM
[Last Edit: 5/26/2012 11:43:05 AM by DJTeancum]
Has anyone been watching the yield of the 10 year US Treasury bond? Lots of people said it couldn't possibly go below 3%.
ETA: If/when Europe collapses everyone will buy US bonds. Combine that with the baby boomers moving their money into fixed income and you have very high demand and therefore low interest rates. |
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raven
Bitter Clinger
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:46:17 AM
Originally Posted By DJTeancum:
Has anyone been watching the yield of the 10 year US Treasury bond? Lots of people said it couldn't possibly go below 3%. ETA: If/when Europe collapses everyone will buy US bonds. Combine that with the baby boomers moving their money into fixed income and you have very high demand and therefore low interest rates.  |
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Veracity
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:49:10 AM
Originally Posted By victorgonzales:
Also looks like the many people on here who used to constantly talk about the Euro becoming the new reserve currency and the USD tanking have been pretty silent. Ill say it again for those who don't pay attention since I have been here. USD is mega king turd on shit hill and the Euro was doomed from the get go. The dollar will remain king of the world and the Euro will be below parity PERMANENTLY if it still exists by 2020 I have been "predicting" the demise of the USD here and elsewhere for a while now. I'm not happy about it, but math is math. However, in all that time, I have never thought that the Euro would ammount to anything. The Euro's fundamentals are better than those of the USD, but global perception is that the USD is still solid and therefore, a better currency. As long as that perception holds, all else is unimportant.........for now None of my investments are in Euros or USD. |
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Soylent
Official Irony Mokey
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Posted: 5/26/2012 11:52:43 AM
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:
Greece's economy is a tiny proportion of the EU's overall economy. Sure, the ECB will have to take a bath, but Greece's exit (and/or bankruptcy) is not a serious problem. The serious problem is the precedent it sets, and the concern that Spain or Italy (actual meaningful economies) might follow. Talking sense in the first post is generally considered bad form. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:03:36 PM
Originally Posted By KaiK:
Originally Posted By victorgonzales:
Originally Posted By Mojo_Jojo:
The USA will make out like bandits from the fall of the Euro to where it belongs. So will USD.
I really don't believe in global/financial type conspiracies, but "too big to fail" institutions guaranteed by taxpayer dollars trouble me. I don't believe anyone really knows how much total exposure USA based financial institutions have from Greek/Italy/Spain default. I'm guessing a LOT more than people think, that the large financial institutions recognized this a few years back and have been very busy unwinding themselves from the exposure as quietly & quickly as possible. Can they divest before the house of cards falls??? We'll see. Oh, cheap European vacations, the wine is good there too. Bring back the Lira.  |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:27:38 PM
Originally Posted By sherrick13:
Originally Posted By victorgonzales:
looks like my predictions on the Euro have all come true. Also looks like the many people on here who used to constantly talk about the Euro becoming the new reserve currency and the USD tanking have been pretty silent. Ill say it again for those who don't pay attention since I have been here. USD is mega king turd on shit hill and the Euro was doomed from the get go. The dollar will remain king of the world and the Euro will be below parity PERMANENTLY if it still exists by 2020 But the dollar IS GOING INTO THE TOILET!!!!~! TOILET I TELL YOU!!!! The dollar is going in the toilet, just not as fast as the Euro. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:35:48 PM
Originally Posted By KaiK:
Greek food is good. I think the world will not skip a beat. It's not the Greek exit you should worry about, it's that tricky greek entry. |
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Posted: 5/26/2012 12:42:13 PM
Well, here's a pretty simple idea. Let each European country go back to it's own currency and let them float against each other based upon their relative productive performance. And you fucking one-world government/one world currency dickheads go eat another baby and leave normal people alone.
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ITA
