But I wanna be a Warlord.

Sweet. So how long till they surplus it you think???

The public reaction after Katrina has guaranteed that no future president will allow himself to think that way.  The best the feds can do is integrate smartly with the better state agencies.  It would be political suicide to actually enforce the Constitution on this one.

"In today's news, the 8.0 New Madrid Earthquake's effects have been tallied. It did $200,000,000 in improvements to St. Louis and $350,000,000 in improvements to Memphis."

Probably not unreasonable. The major earthquakes overseas that are so deadly are because their structures aren't built very well. Our buildings here in the Midwest are similar in that regard. The nature of our soil also transmits wave energy very well making the area affected much larger than what we're used to in California. St. Louis to Indianapolis.




Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

Totally agree, I was just saying the way it should be.

Shit, the whole Gulf Coast is built on a sand base. We'll be sliding into the Gulf.

"for a survivor population of 7 million"



 

So then it would be nice if the fed pacified those who didn't so they don't all converge on you then right? A truly giant disaster would be one of those things that ilustrate the whole point of having a government at all. Assuming it reacted in a timely. organized, constitutional manner, which it wouldn't.

it says

All meals/kits must have 36 months of remaining shelf life upon delivery

you know how bad 3 million corpses are going to smell, pollute the water supply, breed disease? that food ought to be for a forced march away and not look back.

The thing is, they could put this all under the DoD and make it pass Constitutional muster, but the verdict is still out on which actual response would be less Constitutional.  I am personally not a fan of Posse Commitatus law, and think in many ways we would be better off with a military response than a civilian one.  I think there would be cost efficiencies as well.

So.....if I'm in Louisville, in a brick home built in the 1950s.....how badly am I probably fucked when this thing goes?

If people prepped a bit beforehand, it wouldn't be as bad as if no one prepped at all and waited for the govt to help them.

AFAIC, pacifying looters and such means tossing their bodies in a hole.

I remember a New Madrid earthquake when I was a teen.  



I was in Versailles KY and still felt it.



The house was shaking so I walked outside expecting to see a mushroom cloud from an explosion

but I realized the shaking was going on for too long for it to be an explosion.  I had no idea

about KY being on a fault line or that a quake could be felt so far away from one.

Not going to happen. I'm as small government as anyone, but I don't wan't to live in a country that your on your own if the earth opens up. Why have a government at all in that case? What if X amount of preppers live in the worst damage zone?

I DON'T have an issue with govt help, I DO have an issue with RELYING on the govt to prep for me. There is a big difference between the two. It's not that hard to prep for a couple weeks and it doesn't cost that much either.

A full bore seismic event on the New Madrid fault will be a real mind-fuck...in 1811 it changed the course of the Mississippi river in numerous places, made the Mississippi and Ohio rivers run backwards, and rang church bells in Boston.



You can still see the old river course when you fly over eastern Arkansas. Moved the Miss. river channel 10+ miles east in some places...it's pretty amazing to see.



I participated in several drills for New Madrid events and the scenarios were for amazing damage with stagering numbers of deaths...over a million...

I was referring to the probablility of having an earthquake of that size in the next 100-200 years there, let alone the next 3.





It is very remote.   Although it is probable that in the next several thousand there will be one there.





If the .gov is going to do it right, they should have regional stockpiles (for any disaster event) that are rotated, with the near expiration ones going to welfare recipients instead of the 'SNAP card' or whatever other bullshit welfare they are giving out.

Dibs on your gunz...

Looks like we have had a few small shakes in the last few days , I don't live far from it !

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US2/34.36.-93.-91.php

I think it's important to step back and note that this is an RFI (Request for Information) rather than an RFQ (Req for Quote) or RFP (Req for Proposal).

Based on what's discovered through RFI submissions, an organization may eventually release an RFQ or RFP, but in some cases, the RFI can be used as a way to poll the market place, see what's possible, determine costs, and likely discover things not previously thought of.

The way I see it, there are two possible reasons behind this RFI:  Scenario 1) FEMA is expects that something is imminent , or Scenario 2) FEMA is in the middle of developing emergency management plans for major regional events and issued an RFI for market research purposes and to effectively get free research and consulting from vendors.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on the latter. I'd also bet that if they are doing this as part of a planning exercise, that the scenario(s) they're planning for aren't the New Madrid Fault, but far worse... but I don't think that they'd want to release an RFI stating something like "based on a catastrophic nuclear attack on city X." FWIW.

welllll last time it toppled chimneys in Maine

The 1811/1812 events wasn't just one earth quake, it was a series of them and after shocks lasted months.  At that time people knew how to take care of themselves, grow food, live off the land etc.  If it happens now the vast marjoirty of people in that area would have no clue how to survive.

That 1811/1812 quake made the mississipi run backwards, that is powerful, even if it was only for a short time.

A big quake there could very easily take out god knows how many bridges across the mississippi river.  What do you think that will do to food, gas, etc supplies.  We undersetimate the power and damage mother earth can and will do.

off USGS's web site:
This sequence of three very large earthquakes is usually referred to as the New Madrid earthquakes, after the Missouri town that was the largest settlement on the Mississippi River between St. Louis, Missouri and Natchez, Mississippi. On the basis of the large area of damage (600,000 square kilometers), the widespread area of perceptibility (5,000,000 square kilometers), and the complex physiographic changes that occurred, the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812 rank as some of the largest in the United States since its settlement by Euroe by far the largest east of the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. and Canada. The area of strong shaking associated with these shocks is two to three times as large as that of the 1964 Alaska earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. [/b]quake. [/u]quake. quake. Because there were no seismographs in North America at that time, and very few people in the New Madrid region, the estimated magnitudes of this series of earthquakes vary considerably and depend on modern researchers' interpretations of journals, newspaper reports, and other accounts of the ground shaking and damage. The magnitudes of the three principal earthquakes of 1811-1812 described below are the preferred values taken from research involved with producing the 2008 USGS National Seismic Hazard Map (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1128/).
The first principal earthquake, M7.7, occurred at about 2:15 am (local time) in northeast Arkansas on December 16, 1811. The second principal shock, M7.5, occurred in Missouri on January 23, 1812, and the third, M7.7, on February 7, 1812, along the Reelfoot fault in Missouri and Tennessee. The earthquake ground shaking was not limited to these principal main shocks, as there is evidence for a fairly robust aftershock sequence. The first and largest aftershock occurred on December 16, 1811 at about 7:15 am. At least three other large aftershocks are inferred from historical accounts on December 16 and 17. These three events are believed to range between M6.0 and 6.5 in size and to be located in Arkansas and Missouri. This would make a total of seven earthquakes of magnitude M6.0-7.7 occurring in the period December 16, 1811 through February 7, 1812. In total, Otto Nuttli reported more than 200 moderate to large aftershocks in the New Madrid region between December 16, 1811, and March 15, 1812: ten of these were greater than about 6.0; about one hundred were between M5.0 and 5.9; and eighty-nine were in the magnitude 4 range. Nuttli also noted that about eighteen hundred earthquakes of about M3.0 to 4.0 during the same period.
The first earthquake of December 16, 1811 caused only slight damage to man-made structures, mainly because of the sparse population in the epicentral area. The extent of the area that experienced damaging earth motion, which produced Modified Mercalli Intensity greater than or equal to VII, is estimated to be 600,000 square kilometers. However, shaking strong enough to alarm the general population (intensity greater than or equal to V) occurred over an area of 2.5 million square kilometers.
The earthquakes caused the ground to rise and fall - bending the trees until their branches intertwined and opening deep cracks in the ground. Deep seated landslides occurred along the steeper bluffs and hillslides; large areas of land were uplifted permanently; and still larger areas sank and were covered with water that erupted through fissures or craterlets. Huge waves on the Mississippi River overwhelmed many boats and washed others high onto the shore. High banks caved and collapsed into the river; sand bars and points of islands gave way; whole islands disappeared. Surface fault rupturing from these earthquakes has not been detected and was not reported, however. The region most seriously affected was characterized by raised or sunken lands, fissures, sinks, sand blows, and large landslides that covered an area of 78,000 - 129,000 square kilometers, extending from Cairo, Illinois, to Memphis, Tennessee, and from Crowley's Ridge in northeastern Arkansas to Chickasaw Bluffs, Tennessee. Only one life was lost in falling buildings at New Madrid, but chimneys were toppled and log cabins were thrown down as far distant as Cincinnati, Ohio, St. Louis, Missouri, and in many places in Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee.
The Lake County uplift, about 50 kilometers long and 23 kilometers wide, stands above the surrounding Mississippi River Valley by as much as 10 meters in parts of southwest Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and northwest Tennessee. The uplift apparently resulted from vertical movement along several, ancient, subsurface faults. Most of the uplift occurred during prehistoric earthquakes. A strong correlation exists between modern seismicity and the uplift, indicating that stresses that produced the uplift may still exist today.
Within the Lake County uplift, Tiptonville dome, which is about 14 kilometers in width and 11 kilometers in length, shows the largest upwarping and the highest topographic relief. It is bounded on the east by 3-m high Reelfoot scarp. Although most of Tiptonville dome formed between 200 and 2,000 years ago, additional uplifting deformed the northwest and southeast parts of the dome during the earthquakes of 1811-1812.
A notable area of subsidence that formed during the February 7, 1812, earthquake is Reelfoot Lake in Tennessee, just east of Tiptonville dome on the downdropped side of the Reelfoot scarp. Subsidence there ranged from 1.5 to 6 meters, although larger amounts were reported.
Other areas subsided by as much as 5 meters, although 1.5 to 2.5 meters was more common. Lake St. Francis, in eastern Arkansas, which was formed by subsidence during both prehistoric and the 1811-182 earthquakes, is 64 kilometers long by 1 kilometer wide. Coal and sand were ejected from fissures in the swamp land adjacent to the St. Francis River, and the water level is reported to have risen there by 8 to 9 meters.
Large waves (seiches) were generated on the Mississippi River by seismically-induced ground motions deforming the riverbed. Local uplifts of the ground and water waves moving upstream gave the illusion that the river was flowing upstream. Ponds of water also were agitated noticeably.
1811, December 16, 08:15 UTC Northeast Arkansas - the first main shock
2:15 am local time
Magnitude ~7.7 This powerful earthquake was felt widely over the entire eastern United States. People were awakened by the shaking in New York City, Washington, D.C., and Charleston, South Carolina. Perceptible ground shaking was in the range of one to three minutes depending upon the observers location. The ground motions were described as most alarming and frightening in places like Nashville, Tennesse, and Louisville, Kentucky. Reports also describe houses and other structures being severely shaken with many chimneys knocked down. In the epicentral area the ground surface was described as in great convulsion with sand and water ejected tens of feet into the air (liquefaction).

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
1811, December 16, 13:15 UTC Northeast Arkansas - the "Dawn" Aftershock
7:15 am local time
Magnitude ~7.0 A large event felt on the East Coast that is sometimes regarded as the fourth principal earthquake of the 1811-1812 sequence. The event is described as "severe" at New Bourbon, Missouri, and was described by boatman John Bradbury, who was moored to a small island south of New Madrid, as "terrible, but not equal to the first". Hough believes that this large aftershock occurred around dawn in the New Madrid region near the surface projection of the Reelfoot fault.

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
1812, January 23, 15:15 UTC, New Madrid, Missouri
9:15 am local time,
Magnitude ~7.5 The second principal shock of the 1811-1812 sequence. It is difficult to assign intensities to the principal shocks that occurred after 1811 because many of the published accounts describe the cumulative effects of all the earthquakes and because the Ohio River was iced over, so there was little river traffic and fewer human observers. Using the December 16 earthquake as a standard, however, there is a general consensus that this earthquake was the smallest of the three principals. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks.

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
1812, February 7, 09:45 UTC, New Madrid, Missouri
3:45 am local time,
Magnitude ~7.7 The third principal earthquake of the 1811-1812 series. Several destructive shocks occurred on February 7, the last of which equaled or surpassed the magnitude of any previous event. The town of New Madrid was destroyed. At St. Louis, many houses were damaged severely and their chimneys were thrown down. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks.
Abridged from Seismicity of the United States, 1568-1989 (Revised), by Carl W. Stover and Jerry L. Coffman, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1527, United States Government Printing Office, Washington: 1993; Johnston, A.C., and Schweig, E.S., 1996, The enigma of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, v. 24, p. 339-384; doi: 10.1146/annurev.earth.24.1.339;Hough, S.E., 2009, Cataloging the 1811-1812 New Madrid, Central U.S., Earthquake Sequence, Seismological Research Letters V. 80, No. 6, p 1045-1053 /doi: 10.1785/gssrl.80.6.1045

The government has the key to setting it off. Its the CIA.

It's a cover story to purchase meals for FEMA prisoner camps in the midwest.  
John



...and yes, i'm kidding.

zombies do good clean up

There were.







 

I knew it

Hope they are also planning to store a few miles of pontoon bridges, and a few dozen ferries.



Cuz the bridges from St Louis to Greenville will be in the river when the big ones cork off.

And people still bitch. Shocker.


"Food storage Oh teh noez!"

Something else.....there are currently a multitude of contracts in place for these types of supplies/services, but they have lifespans.....usually 4 years.

RFP's come out usually a year or so before the contracts expire (and new ones are awarded) to allow time for review/selection.

A pretty serious New Madrid plan has been around since the late 60's......it just keeps evolving, and the acronyms for the agencies involved keeps changing.

Think about a few thousand square miles of total soil liquefaction......disruption of most major natural gas and oil pipelines, major transportation corredors, and communication centers.......

a bad day at black rock indeed.......

New Madrid, Missouri, had to look it up
 

if a new madrid really does happen on the same level as in the 1800s no planning will help much.

large disruption of power, communications, roads and railways to a very large area will make bringing relief impossible for the entire area.

think of katrina multiplied a million times. will take weeks to get into certain areas.

for those who look forward to SHTF, new madrid is the real deal, assuming your house doesnt fall on you in the middle of the night and crush you. and your bug out vehicle better be a team of pack mules. though goats are probably a better choice since they can navigate extremely rough terrain and live off rough foliage.

While FEMA's performance during the recent hurricane disasters was another disaster in itself, it's nice to see some advance planning.

When the New Madrid fault kicks loose it could make Katrina look like a rehearsal dinner.

I'm about one mile from the Mississippi... we'll be wishin' that mile was a thousand.

It's not if, it's when.  It will happen again, we just don't know exactly when.

Solifluction in many areas even somewhat distant in West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas will topple or damage structures.  Buildings on loess deposits along the East bank of the Mississippi and rivers in West Tennessee will almost definitely be destroyed.

Significant secondary damage will extend to around 100 miles or more.  Damage to utilities, communications, roads and bridges will hamper efforts to resupply and aid those affected.  Millions of people will essentially be on their own for what could easily be months.

It'll be bad.

You spent time in Saint Louis when?

You have the audacity to compare Saint Louis to Detroit?

WTF

Don't forget dams. There's alot of water being held back with aging dams in range of the new madrid.

Hell i'm well over 100 miles from the one that happened in illinois a couple years ago and you could definatly feel it. Even woke people up.

You just wrote the next headline for PrisonPlanet.Com.  

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

I disagree.

In my opinion, an organization such as FEMA should exist due to the duty of the Federal government to provide for the general welfare... And being able to organize relief and aid efforts after a major disaster is certainly providing for the general welfare.

FEMA as we know it, though, is too big, and involves itself in local affairs, responsibilities and details far too much. The job of FEMA should be to standardize relief supplies and training, establish communication lines, standards and protocols, establish logistical networks between the many states and also the military, and study potential disasters and methods to minimize damage and improve response effectiveness. Boots on the ground and actual preparedness (shelters, supply caches, equipment, etc) are a state and local responsibility, though.

TR85.

I do not think it means what you think it means.

I don't necesarily disagree.  But the org you describe is not FEMA.

Yeah, right.  Knock out all the major bridges over the Missouri and Mississippi rivers that lie within the fault zone and see what that does to "Just In Time" grocery stocking across the USA.  A major quake here will be a national, not local, disaster.

Someday, the New Madrid will make Katrina look like a day at the water park.  There will be a virtual TEOTWAWKI zone in the middle of the US, huge amounts of rural area where modern civilization will just end for the foreseeable future.  Depending on the exact location and intensity, Memphis and/or St Louis may or may not suffer cataclysmic damage.

In 1811, almost all the area around where the quakes occurred were literally just wilderness.  When you consider that there was building damage hundreds of miles away you might be able to get a handle on the scope of the disaster that awaits.  I just hope they have a way to get that food out to people beyond just St Louis and Memphis, and can keep it up for longer than 10 days.  If history is an indication, it would seem likely that it would be a while before real recovery or rebuilding could even begin, considering the sequence of 3 major quakes along with hundreds of strong aftershocks.  I hope someone remembers how the Berlin airlift was done...


Let's see.  Shut off.... I70, I55, I57, I64, I24, I40, I44, and lots of rail traffic. Mississippi river traffic probably done for years, at least St Louis and south.  The largest petroleum storage facility in North America is on the fringe of the heaviest damage area and the pipelines that support it run through the anticipated heavy damage area.... so yeah, I80 will probably still be open, but there won't be any fuel.

A large percentage of agricultural grain production gets shipped out of Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana by river barges via the Mississippi.  Figure out how to reroute the shipping of all of that for the next several years until the locks & dams get rebuilt, then maybe you'll have something to restock those grocery stores with.

Yeah, but we'll have one or more new Reelfoot type lakes. The crappie fishing will be fantastic for the survivors...

When a massive disaster has a large negative impact on the economy of our nation and its future security, I believe that is bad for the general welfare of the United States.

We're not talking annual hurricanes and the odd tornado here. I speak of the sort of disaster which has a negative impact on the lives of virtually all Americans.





Understood, and I agree that FEMA as we know it needs to go.

But an organization fitting the role I laid out needs to exist. It's one of the few things the Feds could both be good at and is within their proper role.

Of course, that's exactly why it won't happen.

TR85.

Another interesting request from the same site:
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=ed2fb661961ec48159a24635774679bc&tab=core&_cview=0





Edit: Something else happening in the GOM area?  Could just be preparing for 'cane season...