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Posted: 7/12/2015 10:50:55 PM EDT
[#1]
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First, my 2000 YTD number includes NK, UA, AS, FX. WN and 5X. Its being published as 1500, but I called it 2000 for both easy math and the knowledge that classes of 20 or so have been run here and there and aren't reflected in the numbers. So, the 2000 is a good number IMO because it includes a 25% overage Quote HistoryQuoted:
First, my 2000 YTD number includes NK, UA, AS, FX. WN and 5X. Its being published as 1500, but I called it 2000 for both easy math and the knowledge that classes of 20 or so have been run here and there and aren't reflected in the numbers. So, the 2000 is a good number IMO because it includes a 25% overage So your numbers left out the airline that has hired the most this year. Quoted:
Second, just because 50% of the seniority list is retiring doesn't mean that the refill rate for the pool of applicants isn't growing at the same pace. Thus, there are still probably hundreds if not thousands of current and qualified aviators (by which I define as 1000TPIC, 4000+ TT. jet type rated and/or multiple type ratings, 4 year college degree or lower military equivalents, with at least one internal LoR) for EVERY SLOT, when analyzed on a month to month basis. Throw in people qualified under stated minimums (which we all exist for one reason) then the numbers grow even higher. However, because of the HR, we all know that the more restrictive definition of current and qualified is the more realistic for the vast majority of people flying. Hiring managers at both AAL and DAL have stated that they believe their pool of applicants is the same pool of applicants at all the other big carriers...many who are not necessarily "qualified," in their eyes. As you stated, just because someone has 4,000TT and 1,000TPIC doesn't mean they're "qualified" in the eyes of that respective company. I had 2 regional FOs in my class that had zero TPIC, 1 type and <4kTT. Quoted:
Third, anticipating pilot hiring in the future is laughable. It might come to pass, but airlines are the prime example of "Past performance doesn't equal future results. You can and will lose money." In 1999-2000, UA was hiring at the rates you're suggesting, and less than 24 months later, was furloughing people, some for DECADES, like it was their job. If you don't think that any management group wouldn't love to shunt thousands of pilots back into the regionals, then I've the last 30 years of evidence to the contrary. Combined with the Union's complicity in doing so to save the top 5% of the lists (the guys who helped to create this situation in 1978 in many cases) shortages simply come and go in aviation. I 100% agree to the saying "past performance doesn't equal future results." How about instead of shortage, we'll call it a high amount pilot retirements and "potential hiring," would that make you feel better? Of my group of friends in the military and civilian, a greater percentage have been hired than not. Quoted:
Combined with the Union's complicity in doing so to save the top 5% of the lists (the guys who helped to create this situation in 1978 in many cases) shortages simply come and go in aviation. Wait..so you are calling it a shortage? |
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Posted: 7/12/2015 11:05:50 PM EDT
[#2]
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As someone that is employed at the extreme end of the Part 91 world I can admit that going back to 121 (UA/ DL/ WN) is appealing. While I enjoy the perks of the job, coming home to kids that are taller and look at me as a relative stranger is difficult. Chasing a yacht around the Med for weeks on end becomes tiresome fairly quickly. There is something to be said about knowing your days off, a pension, and time with my family. To address the pilot shortage issue, the majors aren't calling me. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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I went 91. I found that managing new jets that no one else does literally brings clients to me asking for me to manage/fly their planes for them, pays as good, and I have all of the aircraft at an airport 10 minutes from my house. Plus the trips are day trips, home for late dinner, or destination stuff where I get free mini vacations. You couldn't pay me enough to fly for the majors and love that shit life. As someone that is employed at the extreme end of the Part 91 world I can admit that going back to 121 (UA/ DL/ WN) is appealing. While I enjoy the perks of the job, coming home to kids that are taller and look at me as a relative stranger is difficult. Chasing a yacht around the Med for weeks on end becomes tiresome fairly quickly. There is something to be said about knowing your days off, a pension, and time with my family. To address the pilot shortage issue, the majors aren't calling me. Well, don't worry about the "Pension" so much. We have a very nice 401k, maybe slightly better than yours, but not enough to change careers for. |
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Posted: 7/13/2015 10:01:12 AM EDT
[#3]
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So your numbers left out the airline that has hired the most this year. Quote HistoryQuoted:
So your numbers left out the airline that has hired the most this year. Oversight on my part. DL is goodly share of that 1500-2000 number. I didn't type it in, but I did include a couple of airlines that you didn't...I think I also overlooked F9. Hiring managers at both AAL and DAL have stated that they believe their pool of applicants is the same pool of applicants at all the other big carriers...many who are not necessarily "qualified," in their eyes. As you stated, just because someone has 4,000TT and 1,000TPIC doesn't mean they're "qualified" in the eyes of that respective company. I had 2 regional FOs in my class that had zero TPIC, 1 type and <4kTT.
Which goes even more to my point...that if you include now potentially EVERYONE flying for a regional for 4 or more years, the qualified numbers grow significantly.Again, pointing the fact that airlines can step over proverbial dollars to pick up nickels, showing there is no shortage. I 100% agree to the saying "past performance doesn't equal future results." How about instead of shortage, we'll call it a high amount pilot retirements and "potential hiring," would that make you feel better? Of my group of friends in the military and civilian, a greater percentage have been hired than not. My experience has been the opposite. I need better friends. Wait..so you are calling it a shortage? "Shortage." Is that better? |
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Posted: 8/15/2015 8:52:10 PM EDT
[#4]
My wife and I are planning on starting our journey to private pilots within the next year. Please wish us luck.
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Posted: 8/15/2015 9:06:18 PM EDT
[#5]
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My wife and I are planning on starting our journey to private pilots within the next year. Please wish us luck. You'll have a blast. Treat your studying and training like a job. |
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Posted: 8/15/2015 9:10:29 PM EDT
[#6]
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You'll have a blast. Treat your studying and training like a job. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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My wife and I are planning on starting our journey to private pilots within the next year. Please wish us luck. You'll have a blast. Treat your studying and training like a job. Thanks bud. We are perfectly situated as far as airport access. Now we just need to take the next step. It's going to be an experience for me as I'll be attending law school at the same time too. |
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Posted: 8/15/2015 9:23:45 PM EDT
[#7]
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Thanks bud. We are perfectly situated as far as airport access. Now we just need to take the next step. It's going to be an experience for me as I'll be attending law school at the same time too. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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My wife and I are planning on starting our journey to private pilots within the next year. Please wish us luck. You'll have a blast. Treat your studying and training like a job. Thanks bud. We are perfectly situated as far as airport access. Now we just need to take the next step. It's going to be an experience for me as I'll be attending law school at the same time too. It's more than doable. I was going to school full time and working full time while I got my ratings. |
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Posted: 8/15/2015 9:28:20 PM EDT
[#8]
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Thanks bud. We are perfectly situated as far as airport access. Now we just need to take the next step. It's going to be an experience for me as I'll be attending law school at the same time too. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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My wife and I are planning on starting our journey to private pilots within the next year. Please wish us luck. You'll have a blast. Treat your studying and training like a job. Thanks bud. We are perfectly situated as far as airport access. Now we just need to take the next step. It's going to be an experience for me as I'll be attending law school at the same time too. Yea, that is a fun way to spend a fortune. Haha. |
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Posted: 8/15/2015 10:42:31 PM EDT
[#9]
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My wife and I are planning on starting our journey to private pilots within the next year. Please wish us luck. Good luck! Fly as often as you can. |
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