That was a good read.

A very good read.  It is not the only reason people are not training but certainly accurate.

smaller military means   less  pilot pool

I love to fly but when my cfi asked me decades ago about my plans for a career in flying, my thought was that I wanted to enjoy it, not become a glorified bus driver.

I still enjoy it.

Kit Darby was right.

Meh, same song since the 70's. If there was a 'shortage', there wouldn't be 1000 applicants for each $15 an hour FO slot at the commuters where the cost of living at the home station was twice the income earned.

Total number of licensed pilots does not equate total number of "professional" pilots.

This also applies to the mechanical side as well.

There aren't 1000's of applicants for commuter jobs anymore.  The commuters are starting to pay retention bonus to slow the turn over.

Bingo ChadJetLag: the lower level jobs are going unfilled and one regional airline is even paying $20k a year retention bonuses to new first officers and $40k a year to Captains.

Regarding the example of junior manning, and then interrupting vacations, I think it's at best an embellished story, if they call you, the company must get you to base at their expense. I am familiar with all of the contracts of the airlines with pilots that had bases in MSP, going back to the 1980's. None of them could do what the author described. Not to mention bringing you home without legal rest prior to report would be an FAR violation. The pilot should have told the scheduler to get the Chief Pilot (most likely Sun Country) on the phone in a conference call and demand a written order be faxed to the pilot spelling out the demands. It would have been exhibit A in front of the FAA & the subsequent lawsuit for conspiracy to violate both the FAR's and the companies contract. Note I said law suit, not grievance, for a reason.

Regarding the term discipline, it was related to cost control and revenue generation not how they deal with their employees. A great case in point is Delta's recent contract tentative agreement with it's pilots. SIX MONTHS before it is even amendable for a second time in a row. Compare that employees are assets v employees are costs attitude at other carriers, like FedEx, that has been flying without a contract for five years!

Being an early retired Northwest B757 Captain, I can assure you I did not, nor do I drink the Delta Family koolaid, but Delta CEO Richard Anderson understands how disruptive it is to have labor unrest, he was in senior management at Northwest during the 1998 Pilot strike (actually a lockout) and saw NWA piss away over a Billion dollars in revenue over a $60-80 million annual cost difference in the pilot contract from the pilots v NWA's final offer when they shut down the airline.

The world market for highly skilled labor has been internationalized, and the most obvious example is pilots. The extension of the mandatory retirement age in the US from 60, to age 65 only delayed the inevitable. Clearly the articles author has a limited understanding of economics and almost no understanding of the actual operation of an airline business. Of course the comment's with the article show an even lesser understanding by the posters that what the author has.

Good news then!

I've done my career in corporate and was surprised to see Bombardier actually offer mechanics a 3 day 12 hour shift so they could live somewhere with reasonable cost and commute while eating the extra 4 hours a week a year or so ago.

God no. The man is a huckster and always will be.

There is no "pilot shortage."

There is a  industry with a completely incorrect and fundamentally flawed idea of supply and demand that believes that dirt cheap and pliant labor is its constitutional right.

We have all the pilots gone?  They've been driven out of aviation.  Kids used to be able to go to airports.  Now there are 2 security fences, with locked gates and passwords.  You can't do any sort of work on  your airplane in the hangar.  The shop that the airport tells you to go to wants a $7,500 down payment for an annual on a Piper retract, and that's 10% of the estimate for the annual (yes, that really happened).  If you sneeze while flying, that's "careless and reckless", and you're dinged.  You may be the best pilot the world has ever seen, but if some 20 year old punk from the FAA doesn't like the way you do that engine out barrel roll in your Shrike, they pull your medical, and it takes years and tens of thousands to get it back.  If you make through all of this training unscathed, you get to earn a princely sum that is less than LA burger flippers, and live in bug-infested crash pads that look like prison cells.  People fly only because for some, it's a compulsion.  And they fly only until they come to the attention of the Friendly Aviation Administration.

+1
They have a yearly aviation expo in my town. It's mainly hobbyists getting together and some companies pushing their products. This year there was 7 airlines there recruiting pilots, including SW and Alaska.

Politically correct gender neutral button pushing systems operators with granny glasses on a string pulling a suitcase on wheels = new age "pilot"

There are literally thousands of highly qualified pilots (defined as 1000+ TPIC/multiple types/4000+ TT/no incidents/accidents/violations) trying to get through the barriers to be noticed, let alone hired by a major. The majors have an HR problem, which is why people are leaving WN for DL, and AS has no shortage of applicants, seeing that their application window is closed.

This is the correct answer.  They want to start paying bank and they can have plenty of very qualified, very experienced pilots.  It is time for the industry to recognize this fact.  The jacklegs in the corporate office drawing down millions don't like it, they can fly them themselves....oh wait that requires skills and experience they don't have.

Yeah, the SonofaBitch was just off by 25 years.   if I ever run into him, I'm gonna kick him Right in the Taco!

On the private side it is just crazy expensive. Name another hobby that runs in the 150-200 an hour range?  The 172 I rent is $110 plus tax. Then there is renters insurance and medical expenses.   I am not a real golfer but looking up the most expensive courses in the country that the public can play they run about $500/round figure 3-4 hours per round. I suppose auto-racing or classic cars may be in the same ball park as flying.

I am the typical pilot flew for 3-4 years stopped when I bought a house and started having kids.  I just started again a little over a year ago basically as an incentive to lose weight (lost almost 80 pounds) and it keeps me motivated but it is definitely a drain on the resources and I feel a little guilty every time I write a check.

+1 on the private pilot end. It is not just crazy expensive but also the hassle factor just keeps going up every year. The FAA seems to always be looking for one more thing to add to the burden of the hobby flyers. The ADS-B is just the latest in a long list of things that cost us. Insurance prices are skyrocketing, annual labor cost is fairly stable but the cost of parts is skyrocketing. Remember most of the airplanes out there are getting really old (my humble cherokee is a 1964!) so as stuff wears out, it cost a fortune to replace. Hanger rental is going crazy unless you happen to live out the boonies. Oh and don't forget aviation fuel which cost $5/gal or more. Factor in that even a simple 4-seater burns 8-10gals per hour and you are talking about a very expensive hobby.I fly because I love it but it forced me to give up just about all my other hobbies.

There's absolutely no pilot shortage and never ever will be.  Delta has 12,000 apps on file.  The only reason regional airlines are finding it harder to find pilots is they still want to pay $20K a year to start.  Bump that up to $45K or more and they'll have all of the applicants they need.  Just as any other industry would do.  Airlines have been so condition to having applicants that were basically willing to work for free for so long they're having a hard time changing.

---And the story is BS, no one answers a call from scheduling, especially on vacation.

The evidence of this is that they are offering retention incentives - not increasing base pay rates.  They are still hoping it goes back to PFT someday!

Agreed.  Why would you answer on your vacation if you knew they can junior man?  You would have to be crazy...

The numbers favor the qualified and employable individual pilot:

I started flying in 1975 and have seen the ebbs and flows of pilot hiring booms and busts three times. Some things I know for sure:

1) Only you can control your resume. Don't: beat up your girl/boy friend/wife/husband, not pay your bills on time, get a drunk driving arrest or post stupid crap on the internet or you will never make it.

2) The US population has increased from 210 million when I started flying to 320+ million today, while the pilot population has decreased by 30% or more.

3) Delta might have 12k applications on file, but it's the same 12k that have applied everywhere else. Start to subtract those that no respectable airline or corporation would hire, that knocks out 50% and you suddenly realize why the 6k pilots worth hiring are being chased by the same airlines and won't be available for long.

If there were thousands of applicants for every regional F/O position, the pilots would be paying to work, not the other way around. Make sure your data or assumptions are actually correct not just hanger talk. If I had listened to the naysayers in 1980 I would not have been a Northwest Pilot at age 28, a Captain at age 35 and for the last twenty five plus years not have made the $130-260k per year that I have.

Not to mention that despite the BS, when you get to the end of the runway, it's the greatest job in the world to push those power levers forward and the front seat view still can't be beat.

General aviation is too expensive to ba a hobby.  

Small are not air conditioned and don't have enough music for today's pussies.

200 bucks an hour pushed me over the edge. I can't justify the cost.

You can do it for much less, though you may have to move somewhere for a while to get through it. There are plenty FBOs and flight schools owned and run by solvent people who love aviation and are willing to help people get into it at cost. If it feels like you're getting ripped off, find another school and instructor. A good instructor will help you make progress quickly, but will always push your workload and challenge you to do better.

All good info.    It's tough when you're on the outside looking in, and it's easy to get in the habit of dwelling on the negative.    

Thing is, none of us got into this career without an absurd amount of positive thinking.        Keep on applying and most importantly, be Aggressive.      Also, don't forget to check off the affirmative action boxes.     Change your name to Consuala Tonto Mohommad if you must, and get a set of bolt on tits.     I'm not even kidding.    It's worth it.

I've been in da bidness since '98, and I've never seen the hiring prospects even close to this good.     For those who can gat hired at the Majors in the next 5 years, at 35 or younger, you'll have that golden career.

Maybe.....maybe not.

Everyone said the same thing back when I got hired with a major, in 1991.  Guys were making captain in 6-7 years, and having that "golden career". It was working out well for them.   But 20 years later, I was still a peon, narrow body FO.  And not a very senior one, at that.  At least I was employed, though.  The guys who were hired a year after me ended up being furloughed for several years.

The point is, things can look good today, but crappy tomorrow.

If you really want to be in the airline business, then go for it.  Maybe it will work out, and maybe it won't.  Only time will tell.

Even on the corporate side I am seeing more wanted ads than I have seen in a very long time.  Interesting times.
My week at work:  (gotta have toes in it to be an official arfcom pic)

Let me add one item to the things I know for sure. At age 65, when you are aged out of the 121 world, you will know for sure if you made a good choice...

Don't you mean Age 72?  

Of course, one can never predict the future.    We could end up with another black swan event that devastates the economy, we could have a pandemic, we could get plunged into a War.      Shit, sometimes I feel like Forest Gump, for all the shit that's happened to me.  

But still, ya gotta keep believing.     And even when it doesn't work out perfect, it's still pretty damned good.    
Even as one of those peon nb F/O's I make more money on a two day trip, then my wife makes in two weeks as a fully certified Teacher.     We pilots complain alot about all the concessions, and justifiably so, but we lose sight of just how beat down the rest of the Middle Class got during the same time.  

I will respectfully non-concur.

1) While there are plenty of people who self-select out of the most competitive category with bad life choices, the reality is that no HR filter can legally select for the above, unless it results in a felony.

2) Lets use the 12K number as an accurate measure. First, that 12k are the people who have made it through hoop 1 above.  If AA/DL/WN/AS/FX/5X are all hiring an average of 400 people per year, and assuming that 1000 pilots enter the pool of qualified applicants every year, my shaky public math suggests that 12k pool will take nearly a decade to drain, and a decade of sustained pilot hiring has not occurred in the timeframe post 1978. I'd also suggest that the 1000 per year refill rate is pretty low.

3) If you were a Eastern, Pan Am, or TWA pilot in 1980, your subsequent career might have looked rather different. And, let's make no mistake. This carnage that those pilots suffered was due in no small part to the actions of ALPA acting against their best interests in the favor of the DL/UA pilot groups.

Screechjet1; Let's take these in order, on number one, the FAA/TSA required ten year background check is a legal vehicle to remove you early from the process, at the least it set's you back ten years, with few exceptions,felony convictions eliminate you for life. Number two, with Delta, American and United hiring over 400 every month and retiring the same number every month, it will take less than two years to deplete the available pool of all twelve thousand. Remember, that those bad life choices will eliminate 50% of those pilots from the top tier jobs for at least ten years. For number three, Eastern had it's assets stolen by Lorenzo and was destroyed, ALPA had no way to stop that from happening. Pan Am suffered from being a financially unsupported arm of US Foreign policy under multiple Presidents and the TWA pilots first suffered under Icahn but now work for the highest paying airline in the world.

Interesting read...as I just put my apps in to the majors.  

Placeholder for later,  but to deny the culpability of ALPA national in picking winners and losers among pilot groups during mergers, B scale and RJs to name just three is a pretty basic failure of analysis.

But the NW, DL, and US guys made out like bandits, I guess those of us that were collateral damage should be happy about it.

ETA: Your analysis also fails to account for the recharge rate. There are thousands of regional airline pilots, corporate/fractional pilots, military pilots, cargo Bubbas etc filling up that pool. The vast majority with SIDA badges, college degrees, 3k-5k total time, and internal LoR. I think the idea that 50% of the available pool is unemployable is frankly ludicrous.

We do not have a pilot shortage.  At best we can argue that we have a training bottle neck and HR issue.

We absolutely have a pilot shortage at the regionals, but there will never be one at the majors.     I'm sure you remember how hard it was to get any job, bitd.  They made most of my peers Pay for their jobs.  . It was insanely competitive, at a level that todays young pups will never understand.  

The 50% claim is a bit of hyperbole, but ~ 20% is realistic.    You would be amazed by some of the unemployable resume's I got when I was hiring Corporate.    Another thing to remember, is that some people just interview bad.   Aviation beardnecks, we've all seen them.  That's another 10% right there.     He's right about the majors causing huge turnover when it's on.      

The Glass is more than half full, and more than half empty, depending on how you view it.

Actually, having had to do some interviews as a special project pilot a long time ago, the 50% number is actually pretty accurate from the data I've seen. Rejection for consideration for everything from typos on applications and resumes to using profanity during the interview to being just too ugly to allow that pilot to walk through the terminal for fear that they would scare the passengers.

Never underestimate the ability of the eggheads in the HR department to screw up on a regular basis. Everything from having a well endowed female HR lawyer wear a mini-skirt and low cut blouse while staring in a sexual harassment training film (that cost the airline several hundred thousand in legal payouts) to knowingly hiring a senior Captains son with two DWI's and then brushing it under the rug later to ignoring when a Professional Standards Committee Chairman attempted to get a guy fired for firing another Captains kid for stealing from his flight school, the father of the perpetrator was the guy who got the ProStan guy his job years before.

More than half of the current Pt. 121 pilots hit the max age of 65 in the next ten years, that's over 30,000 pilots, this next wave will be huge. Also, don't forget, less that 60% of the pilots ever make it to mandatory retirement age, just adding to the problem.

Well I was an ATA pilot at 28, a 737 captain at 34, and now I work at FlightSafety so it ain't all rose colored Ray-Ban Aviators.

Unfortunately, not around here. It's forty miles one way to the nearest FBO with a school. After that, the 200 an hour goes up. Moving somewhere or going off to some school even for two weeks would push the cost WAY up beyond that.

I'd bet a kidney that there are still more than 10 applicants for every slot at the majors that are employable. Again, it doesn't matter if they are the same 6000 people, mathematically. All that matters is people showing up for that interview, or applying or updating in that window.

A 1000% overage isn't a shortage.

The water in the glass is only real for those that get to sip.

The "Shortage" will never exist at the Majors.  It will also never exist at the good paying Corporate or Freight jobs.
As long as other lower paid jobs exist to act as a farm team for the Majors, a Shortage at the upper level is impossible.

It's kind of silly that anyone would even try to make that claim

There is, however, a shortage at the regionals.   The fact that a dude can pick up 1300/200 and then easily get a job flying large modern jets, is big news.     A career at the regionals for a young dude getting hired today, is still better than most private sector jobs.   -  IF, one loves to fly and feels the need to dedicate their life to it.    
.

As of today, PSA Airlines is advertising for direct entry Captains on Climbto350.com. More evidence that the lower rung jobs/employers are starting to become more desperate to fill positions.

HR 476 isn't going to help things any either on the training front. If that bill passes this year all US flight school that train GI bill veterans will be closing. That's a large pipeline they're about to turn off...

It can be cheaper.   My average fuel burn over the last 450 hours in my RV has been just under 8gph.   This gets me 165KTAS.   And burning Mogas, my all-up direct operating costs including fuel, oil, and engine/prop/avionics set-asides have come in at $38/hr.     Include the hangar and insurance along with 150 hours/year (although I have yet to fly this little per year) the cost works out to $65.33/hr.    

Place holder for my comments that will never come.

I lold.

How much money do you have tied up in it?   What do you estimate the Time Value of that Money at?  

How much time do you spend on it, beyond the fun flying?      Do any of your own MX, servicing or cleaning?    

At an Hourly rate of say, $150 per hour Times XXXX Hours;   what does that come out to?      

Let's talk some pilot shortage reality.

The only real way to get a F9 or NK interview is getting FaceTime at a career fair...

You have to be in the first two hundred to buy a ticket... $300.
Hotel room, $300, plane ticket, $300. Meals and incidentals...$100.

So, pay $1000 for a 5 minute conversation with HR for a chance for an interview. .

They are all in their parents basements with a bag of chips and a beer playing video games. Damn it if these young men will not come out to fly or even chase women.