We are fucked.

The airlines are fucked, not all of us.

What I see happening is pilots will get hired and attend an ATP academy before they get upgraded to left seat.

All future airline pilots will be former transgender flight attendants.

Glad I got mine done, just need to do the practical now.

I know quite few people who took the writen in July.  Many of them are no where near having ATP minumums.  Those pilots now have 2 years to get there.

Still, after about two more years there will not be many new ATPs.  Maybe then the airlines will start paying a living wage.

Once again you can thank congress for a knee jerk reaction that would not have prevented the Colgen accident(United Express Q400, Buffalo).
Its quality not quantity of time.
If this were the medical field what Dr would spend 75-100K for an education and training then intern for 5 years at minimum wage only to start practicing medicine at minimum wage for years before making a living that tops out today at an avg of 200k. One guy in my class ended up working for Best Buy out of school because he could make more money there to pay his student loans back than Flight Instucting.

If i were starting over today or recomending to someone a career field I would steer away from aviation.
The old saying of "How do you make a little money in aviation? The answer- You start with a lot is never more true today.
I have been flying for a living for 26 years and wouldnt trade it for the world but from a practicle aspect It was hard enough to afford all the primary training and start a career back then much less today with the increased cost and now the extra burden that congress has inacted with the new mandaded times.
Most of the non flying public has no idea that a 1st year 1st officer with most regional airlines qualify for food stamps.
In 93 I brought home 600 a month with the airline I flew for.
For 6 years of my career I trained new 1st officers and Captains for airlines worldwide in several types of aircraft as well as hold a Masters in Aviation Safety Managment and Human Factors in Aviation and I can assure you that quantity of time will not solve the safety issue thet congress was trying to legislate. Its quality of time. I have better solutions to the problem without being such a burden to the industry but the goverment is smarter than I am and therfore doesnt care what I or the rest of the industry thinks.
Rant over.

I would just recommend that they learn in the military if they can. If not find another vocation. As you point out, doing it out of your own pocket is not the way to go. I don't think we will ever see a shift in the Aviation Management Philosophy that has been proven to be fatal since day one. It took the auto industry nearly 20 years of getting the sh#t kicked out of them to BEGIN to change, and aviation doesn't have the off shore competition to do it. Congress never bothers to find out what the real problem is first, and Ocare is the greatest demonstration of that to date.

Mini rant over.



 

LOL

 The highest and finest  "quality" civilian training  time does not prepare anyone to fly jets at 250-300 hours.  Sorry, but it does not.
The commuter's will have to raise pay substantially to fill positions.

Sounds like the market for autonomous cockpits will be opening up soon.

What is the military hiring and training regimen vs the civilian hiring and training regimen?  Therein lies the key.
I edited my first post to leave out military as it is a very different animal.

I know nothing about airlines, but it seems like an ideal free market situation to me...  The government identified a risk(low pilot experience) and made a rule to reduce the risk(require more experience).  The market will adapt and the net result will be pilots with more experience.  

You can still right seat without ATP, correct?  So no immediate effect.  If ATPs start getting harder to find then employers will start to cough up $ to enable their right seaters to get their ATP.  I don't see the big deal, but then again I know nothing about airlines so I don't know what I don't know.....  

It is a good thing as far as the flying public is concerned.  But I'm pretty sure an ATP will be required for right seat also (after a certain date.). It is a good thing as far as commuter pilot pay as they will be forced to raise pay to fill seats.

I agree, and I don't see the downside to entering the airline pilot workforce(assuming you can right seat without your ATP).  So isn't this a good example of ideal government?  Protecting the general population while minimizing interference with the free market?  

i agree this is a problem, it is a problem the airlines brought upon themselves.

They can fix the problem with pay.  There are plenty of seasoned ATP pilots that refuse to work for poverty wages.  Lots of Americans flying in Asia right niw because that is where the money is at.

Actually, you need your ATP for any seat now.

Screw hiring competent experienced pilots and safety, we have profits to make.

You would be surprised at some of the guys flying fighters.  There are guys who I look over my shoulder at when they are joining on me to make sure I don't get killed.

You cannot fly right seat without at least a restricted ATP anymore. Part 121 at least.

I am one of those guys that took it before the rule change, I took mine July 30th. As of today I have 207 hours, but I'm a CFI so I will probably have the time in two years. I'm in the process of getting into a fixed wing army guard unit, if so I'll be able to get my restricted ATP at 750 hours.

Where in FL are you?

Being a military aviator, chinooks to be exact, i think that a mil rating = ATP is flat out retarded.   Sure many guys are up to it. But far too many no talent ass clowns are out there and would auger in a flight if given the chance.

Although I'm a junior aviator I agree that a straight mil = ATP is not good for rotary wing.  My stick buddy in flight school was a window licker but still has wings.  I think a reduced hour requirement would maybe work.

Disclaimer: I'm not claiming to be Chuck Yeager or anything but there are dumbasses out there with wings.

This does not really protect the general population. What it does do is make being a professional pilot much more difficult. One might think that means that the airline are going to start paying more…. Nope, since it will cost more to get a pilot his ATP they will just make it part of the training and not increase pay a bit. For example, Northwest Airlink at one point had a deal where you paid for your training in the SAAB and you worked it off. You had to work I think two years at less than 15K a year to "pay them back" for your training.

I expect more of this will happen.

Som airline will hire a guy that has almost enough hours and will put them through training and charge them for the training.

They won't be able to fill the positions without raising pay.  It is a problem of their own making.

I agree. While the new atp pre reqs suck, there are a few places offering the sim and class time for $4500-$5000.

The biggest hurdle is getting the 1500 hours to get the restricted atp. Most, myself included are flight instructing to get the time.. Making very little.

The instructors that I have worked with that are getting into regionals in the last six months have gotten a signing bonus and their atp check ride in their hiring process.

Sporty's pilot shop has the class advertised for ATP with sim sessions, $4,800 ish I believe. Thats a whole lot better than the original $15,000 estimates, but still a real deal breaker for many.

There are plenty of ATPs already out there - the industry just needs to start paying more for them to leave their current non-flying jobs and reenter the airlines.

300 hour fighter pilots don't have to drag around "baggage".

I think what you'll see down the road is that you'll just need the ATP minimums and all the sim requirements needed, will be attained as part of training for the airline.  I was given my ATP as part of my checkride as a new hire at a regional.  Once all the qualified candidates are hired and they start struggling to fill classes, I think you'll see the airlines open up to this idea...but not a moment to soon!



Sure we do...our baggage comes in 500 or 2,000 lbs packages!

As long as people are willing to take the job, they will find a way to get the qualifications without raising the pay they give the pilots. Lots of people thought no one would pay for their own type rating, yet people were lining up out the door to pay 20K (IIRC) to get typed and fly for NW airlink back in the day for 15K  year salary. Heck I still see ads in the rags where you can pay for right seat time. In the Shorts it was 16K dollars for 200 hours.

No one thought people would PAY to work. But they do.

When I flew for a regional in 93-94 my starting pay after taxes was 600 a month.
The unions have a bad habit of supporting where their money is.
They tend to the regionals as a barging tool for the major airlines but don't work hard for an above poverty pay for the regionals but they are happy for your money.
The public only sees a published hourly rate but don't realize it is based on your monthly projected hours in the air.
You do not get paid for time at the gate.
A FAR 121 airline is limited to 1000 per year so at 24 per hour equates to 24000/yr before taxes and union dues are taken out.