 ar-jedi
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Posted: 10/31/2007 7:32:22 PM
[Last Edit: 10/31/2007 7:59:35 PM by ar-jedi]
data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 31 october 2007:
  summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $11,331.60, or up about 13.09% YTD inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $11,093.10, or up about 10.93% YTD. ar-jedi ETA ps: you may be wondering why the "gain/loss since purchase" and "total return YTD" columns don't agree above, especially since the 4 fund portfolio was initiated on 1 january 2007. the numbers actually do agree, just not yet. morningstar updates the last column at about 1am the following day. if you scroll back to prior status posts, you'll see that when i've posted on weekends (or very very late in the evening) the last column does agree with the former. the offset today just jumps out as unusually large due to the market's reaction to the fed's 25bp rate cut. |
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ar-jedi
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Posted: 12/1/2007 8:15:05 AM
data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 01 december 2007:   summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,832.63, or up about 8.11% YTD inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,705.66, or up about 7.06% YTD. ar-jedi |
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omar
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Posted: 12/31/2007 8:05:23 PM
Closing 2007 info for the 10K2007:
 This is an unrealized loss of 32.48%. I am still going to do limited update of this portfolio, even though I originally stated I would end it at the close of 2007. I am doing so since I was still buying into June, so I'll do some updates. I still believe CCIX will do well in the long run, but in the short term, the price of copper dropped, and CCIX is levered to copper prices due to inventory. Insiders still continue to buy and so will I, just not in the 2007 10K portfolio. LVLT is another matter. I'm going to give it two more quarters and call it a day if it doesn't perform. In retrospect, I put too much of LVLT into this and should have stayed with 400 shares as originally intended. It is after all, a speculative stock. I also tracked James Cramers 9 stock picks for 2007 3 each growth, value and speculative). Equal investment in those nine stocks at the closing price of the day of recommendation would result in a 17.86% annual gain at todays close, excluding any dividends. Outside of the 10K I was buying and selling 100 share blocks of Halliburton (HAL) and AECOM (ACM) and bigger blocks of CCIX I picked up when it hit a new low. That worked pretty well, so I'm going to do another portfolio using that strategy. The 10K portfolio for 2008: $10000 in cash, nothing bought for the folder yet. $10 transaction fees The strategy: Use stocks and ETFs that work opposite of one another, so that no matter what direction the market is moving, something is going up. The picks: BTE, a Canadian oil trust - dividend play AECOM (ACM) an infrastructure play HOKU Scientific (HOKU) a speculative solar power play. I'm buying 100 shares and possibly 100 more, but that's it. I already have a position on this outside the 10K, as well as in ACM UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) Other posssible additions: PPL, ADM, MON, FSLR or a homebuilder if housing turns around. The core position of this portfolio is ACM. The plan is to have no less than 100 shares and no more than 400 shares and the intent is to trade a 100 share block when I'm up 3-4 points. I plan on buying and selling it all year, but always maintaining a core position of at least 100 shares. When I sell ACM, I'll be looking to buy BTE. When the DOW and S&P are approaching record highs or new 50 day highs, I'll be looking to buy SDS or DXD (one or the other, not both). DXD and SDS are ETFs which track exactly opposite to the S&P and the DOW. Jim |
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ar-jedi
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Posted: 1/1/2008 12:11:52 PM
data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 31 december 2007:   summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,713.39, or up about 6.92% YTD inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,616.14, or up about 6.16% YTD.  --- retrospective on each holding... international stocks continued to outperform (aided by a declining dollar), and so Dodge & Cox International fund (DODFX) "won" in terms of total return inside the portfolio. Fidelity's Balanced fund (FBALX) turned in an impressive year -- it's risk-adjusted return is excellent. kudos to both Fidelity's stock picking and fixed income departments for making a "ballast" fund perform so well. on the other hand, iShares S&P Midcap 400 Value ETF (IJJ) suffered from a vastly tightened credit environment -- smaller companies are the hardest hit when lenders reign in loans. since this ETF is geared toward the value end of the spectrum (read: troubled, low P/E stocks), it was doubly hurt as any available loan money was thrown at growth stocks. for comparison, contrast the results of iShares S&P Midcap 400 Growth ETF (IJK) -- 12.73% YTD. Third Avenue Value fund (TAVFX) had a very modest year at 5.76% return, and is flush with cash (over 20% currently). --- going forward... no changes to the portfolio for 1H 2008. ar-jedi   |
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ar-jedi
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Posted: 1/31/2008 8:39:22 PM
data for the 4 fund portfolio, 1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 31 january 2008:   summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,080.61, or up about 0.60% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,069.67, or up about 0.70% since portfolio inception. ar-jedi |
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FALARAK
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Posted: 1/31/2008 10:11:54 PM
Thanks jedi. I dont feel so bad anymore.
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omar
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Posted: 2/3/2008 10:21:19 AM
10K2008 - 420 shares of ACM $10,652.92 - I will peel some of this off into a short fund at some point, probably after the DOW moves another 600-700 points or when SDS or DXD approach a 52 week low. There's probably at least one or more interest rate cuts still to follow. We are probably close to a bottom in housing, but there's still a lot of supply on the market.
I was itching to buy KB Homes when it was in the $18s (now at $28 in just nine trading days), but I may still have another chance to buy it lower before it starts a big run. It would also give me two construction stocks, so I need to consider another sector for counter balance, which is where a utility like PPL may work, instead. I am not including a speculative stock this year, so HOKU is out. 10K2007 - $7,149.75 - CCIX is starting to move upward and there was a lot of insider buying when it was near the bottom. LVLT will be sold if it gets into the 5-6 range. Jim |
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Posted: 2/9/2008 10:44:33 PM
Omar have you considered sell calls on the stocks with at least 100sh. You could have brought in extra income ie like with HAL selling calls deep out of the money.
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GunLvrPHD
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Posted: 2/29/2008 1:14:15 PM
Very educational thread. Thanks to the original poster, who would make a good financial analyst.
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ar-jedi
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Posted: 3/1/2008 10:41:35 AM
data for the 4 fund portfolio, 1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 1 march 2008:   summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $9,848.91, or down about 1.71% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $9,850.39, or down about 1.50% since portfolio inception. ar-jedi |
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Posted: 3/5/2008 9:44:11 AM
ar-jedi -
Your $10k portfolio has pretty much mirrored mine, which is invested completely in Vanguard's Total Stock Market and was begun in Jan of 2007. I havn't kept records, but I was up to $11k at one point (probably Oct '07). This may be of some use to those who ponder the merrits of active trading vs. passive index investing. |
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omar
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Posted: 3/7/2008 9:57:49 PM
[Last Edit: 3/7/2008 10:06:41 PM by omar]
AKuzer, Sorry for the late reply. I had a family emergency and have been out of communication for the last few weeks. I've never bought options, just watched them for unsual activity in stocks I've owned. I am not confident enough to purchase options at this time, but will probably test the waters and purchase options as cheap insurance against downside on a stock. I will be inheriting a sizable portion of PPL stock, so I won't be buying that as planned. Jim |
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ar-jedi
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Posted: 4/1/2008 8:19:42 PM
data for the 4 fund portfolio, 1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 1 april 2008:   summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $ 9,996.23, or down about 0.24% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,073.15, or up about 0.73% since portfolio inception. ar-jedi |
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ar-jedi
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Posted: 5/2/2008 12:48:57 AM
data for the 4 fund portfolio, 1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 1 may 2008:   summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,415.69, or up about 3.95% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,350.24, or up about 3.50% since portfolio inception. ar-jedi |
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omar
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Posted: 5/2/2008 10:39:18 PM
[Last Edit: 5/2/2008 10:43:01 PM by omar]
UPDATE:
10K2008 - 420 shares of ACM $12,156.49 up 14.11%. ACM announces earnings on 8 May and I expect it will continue to run up to earnings, which will probably be blow out. My dilemma will be whether I should take some off the table or let it run. ACM continues to acquire companies that immediately contribute to the bottom line. At some point, a larger company will attempt to acquire ACM. So I think buy and hold will work just fine if I choose to leave it alone. On the other hand, there will be another pullback when almost every stock will go red including ACM, which currently is trading in a 25-30 range and I’ll probably have an opportunity to buy back at a cheaper price. BTE really ran up and I won't buy any at the current price. 10K2007 - 7792.80 down (22.08%) -- 60 shares HAL up 52.60% -- 900 shares LVLT down (43.94%) -- 150 shares CCIX down (31.10%) |
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omar
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Posted: 5/8/2008 11:20:34 PM
[Last Edit: 5/8/2008 11:30:48 PM by omar]
10K2008 UPDATE:
05/08/08 11:23 AM EDT Sell 328 ACM Executed @ $29.6 05/08/08 3:37 PM EDT Buy 100 KBH Executed @ $23.9 Holdings: 92 shares of ACM 100 shares of KBH Cash: $7315.49 Start: $10,652.92 Portfolio value as of 05/08/08: 12456.49 up 16.9% If ACM goes higher, I'll sell the rest and wait for a pullback and buy back in. ACMs earning were very good, but I expect it will slowly drift lower in concert with the market in general, due to energy and inflation concerns. In the meantime, KBH (KB Homes) is a stock I've watched for a long time and I decided to do a small buy. If KBH drops lower $19-20, I'll buy 100-200 more shares. KBH bounces off $19 probably due to the dividend/yield and is a really good entry point. If it climbs to $28 in the near term, I'll reevaluate/sell as its trading in a band. The housing market probably won't turn until next year, but just in case, I'm putting a toe in the water. I'm still interested in the Canadian and U.S. energy trusts, but we are probably turning the corner on oil and I think we may see a pullback. In any event, my prime pick BTE has run up too much to chance buying it now, so PGH, PVX, PWE, AAV, PBT and HTE are all contenders. 10K2007UPDATE: $8,057.10 down (19.42%) -- 60 shares HAL up 61.98% -- 900 shares LVLT down (43.41%) -- 150 shares CCIX down (28.51%) |
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omar
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Posted: 5/16/2008 10:13:12 PM
10K2008 UPDATE:
Fri May 16 15:45:35 2008 Buy 150 PGH Executed @ $20.59 Holdings: 92 shares of ACM 100 shares of KBH 150 shares PGH Cash: $4213.00 (includes $12.99 trade fee) Start: $10,652.92 Portfolio value as of 05/16/08: 12,641.40 for a 18.6% unrealized gain ACM appears to be going higher and I may sell the rest next week. I missed an opportunity to sell KBH (KB Homes) this morning and add another 2% I can’t figure out when oil will drop, but I’m going to hold on to PGH, a Canadian oil trust and take advantage of the 13% yield. If it starts running like its competitor BTE is, I’ll reevaluate. 10K2007UPDATE 8,353.80 for a (16.4%) unrealized loss -- 60 shares HAL up 66.94% -- 900 shares LVLT down (37.81%) -- 150 shares CCIX down (31.43%) |
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omar
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Posted: 5/19/2008 8:19:26 PM
10K2008 UPDATE:
Monday, May 19, 2008 05/19/08 2:50 PM EDT Sell 92 ACM Executed @ $31.4 / 2888.78 05/19/08 2:14 PM EDT Buy 10 FSLR Executed @ $298.8/2988.00 Fees: (25.98) Holdings 100 shares KBH 150 shares PGH 10 shares FSLR Cash: 4087.80 FSLR is a short term trade I decided to sell ACM on good news I'll buy back some ACM on a pullback. Also, it might be time to short the DOW with DXD or the S&P with UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) Exchange Traded funds. Portfolio Start: $10,652.92 Portfolio value as 05/19/08: 12,621.8 |
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Posted: 5/27/2008 11:35:20 AM
[Last Edit: 5/27/2008 11:40:00 AM by mags]
I will add to Omars post having passed my 63/65 financial exams but no pro in any way.. IMHO anyone with less than 50k should be in Mutual funds not individual stocks. Its all about risk/reward with overconfidence as the investors enemy............Any S&P500/FTSE Global x_US would be a great split IMO with out the Small cap value premium= 50%domesic SP500/50%international equites still puts 100% in equites with much less risk.Good Luck!
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ar-jedi
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Posted: 6/1/2008 11:20:19 PM
data for the 4 fund portfolio, 1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 1 june 2008:   summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,487.74, or up about 4.67% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,374.72, or up about 3.75% since portfolio inception. ar-jedi |
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omar
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Posted: 7/31/2008 1:11:05 PM
I currently have almost exact split in my 401K (49%/50% + 1% treasuries). My 10K 2008 is out performing that and my 10K 2007 is under performing. Jim |
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omar
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Posted: 7/31/2008 4:47:31 PM
Stock Purchases:
07/31/08 11:33 AM EDT Buy 50 PGH Executed @ $17.45 Day buy order for 50 PGH at a limit price of $17.5 was executed at $17.45. 07/31/08 11:29 AM EDT Buy 100 ACM Executed @ $28.6 Day buy order for 100 ACM at a limit price of $28.6 was executed at $28.6. PGH $885.49 (Includes fee) ACM $2872.99(Includes fee) Total: $3758.48 Dividends 07/24/08 Dividend KB HOME CASH DIV ON 100 SHS REC 07/10/08 PAY ... $25.00 07/15/08 Dividend ***PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST UNIT NEW CASH DIV O... $33.63 06/16/08 Dividend ***PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST UNIT NEW DIST ON 15... $32.95 Dividend Total: $91.58 10K2008 Portfolio Value at close 31 Jul 2008: $11,339.20 Holdings 100 shares ACM 100 shares KBH 200 shares PGH 10 shares FSLR Cash: 4087.80 Cash: $420.90 I bought ACM back and will reevaluate in the mid-thirties. While ACM and KBH are both construction companies, one is a home builder and the other is major infrastructure, so I don't consider them two of a kind. I really wanted to add a wind stock (see below) but they've run up too much in recent weeks. So in the meantime, I bought ACM back. PGH remains a long term hold. I missed the ex-dividend date, so I probably won't see distribution in August on the 50 shares just purchased, only the 150 shares owned before 28 July 2 008. KBH is a long term hold and is my start of a 1000 share position. I figure if I can buy it when its hated, I will ride back up to the $50s, where it was before the building slump. I don't expect it to do much before the builders turn, which is probably next spring, so I'm adding to my position outside this portfolio whenever it takes hits with the rest of the housing construction sector. I bought more at $17 but not for this project. KBH also pays a good dividend, which does not appear to be at risk. If I'm correct, that protects it from more downside around $16. If they decide to lower it due to losses, that's OK. I'm also interested in Centex (CTX). FSLR turned out to be not so much a short term trade. I'm looking to unload it at around $350. I'd like to add a windpower stock, but they've been running up - Otter Tail Corp (OTTR) and Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) are two I'm interested in. Also of interest is AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) and American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) TRN is not a pure wind play, but it manufactures wind towers and associated equipment. It's been on a tear lately. If I can catch it on a pull back, I'll probably put it in this portfolio. If you drive down I-10 and I-20 in Texas, you'll see hundreds of windmills. These companies are a part of the Texas wind power projects, which are rejuvenating and transforming parts of rural Texas. Jim |
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ar-jedi
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Posted: 8/2/2008 1:14:25 PM
data for the 4 fund portfolio, 1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 2 august 2008:   summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $9,423.27, or down about -5.96% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs. ps: the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $9,486.56, or down about -5.13% since portfolio inception. ar-jedi |
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omar
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Posted: 8/18/2008 8:30:38 AM
[Last Edit: 8/18/2008 8:31:50 AM by omar]
Dividend Paid
Payment Date: 08/15/2008 Security: ***PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST (PGH) Amount Credited: $31.66 Holdings 100 shares ACM 100 shares KBH 200 shares PGH 10 shares FSLR 420.90 +31.66= Cash: $452.56 10K2008 Portfolio Value at close 15 Aug 2008: 11474.76 The dividend is only for 150 shares as I missed the ex-div date. Next month it will be around $41.00. Jim |
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omar
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Posted: 9/20/2008 9:33:21 AM
Update:
Dividend Paid Payment Date: 09/15/2008 Security: ***PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST (PGH) Amount Credited: $41.90 Holdings 100 shares ACM 100 shares KBH 200 shares PGH 10 shares FSLR CASH $452.56 +41.90 = $494.46 10K2008 Portfolio Value at close 19 Sep 2008: $11,253.46 I placed a limit order at $25.30 for Monday. If that triggers, I'll repurchase KBH on a pullback or maybe purchase Diana Shipping (DSX), a dry bulk shipper from China. That business will pick back up if we've crossed the hump of this mortgage problem and lack of confidence in the markets. Another option is to hold on and watch to see if FSLR pulls back and buy 10 more shares. I'm also interested in OTTR, which makes windmill components. It took a big hit on Friday and didn't recover with the market and I don't know why, so that's iffy until I can determine the reason. I bought OTTR at $35.36 on 5 Aug when it took a deep cut after disappointing earnings and sold it on a bounce at $40.75. At $30 something it's looking attractive, subject to knowing the reason for the recent decline in share price. As I look at the 10K stocks, KBH is my least favorite and probably wasn't the right pick for this portfolio, especially since I have two construction stocks. Additionally, there is still a lot of new, unsold supply on the market. Combined with more stringent mortgage requirements, the home builders may not come back as strong as they were due to a smaller pool of qualified buyers. Monday may provide an opportunity to eject and buy something in another sector to increase diversification or dollar cost average on ACM, or FSLR buy buying more at a cheaper price than the original purchase. Jim |
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its me again,and I will neither confirm or deny I have anything to say.
