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omar
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Posted: 7/8/2007 9:41:03 PM
[Last Edit: 7/8/2007 9:47:10 PM by omar]

Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
ETA:
ps to omar...
when you get a sec -- in your first post in this thread, could you update the link to Corporal_Chaos's original "Seeking Investment Guidance" thread to the following:
archive.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=514490
thanks.


I found that and I also found who wanted to sell AAPL at around $83
(USMC88-93) archive.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=535449(I'd been looking for that) I hope he held off selling.

(Cpl_Chaos) archive.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=514490


Here's the story: I'm a 20 year old single soldier (E-3). I live in the barracks, and aside from food, toiletries, and cleaning supplies, I have no monthly expenses (no gas, insurance, phone, internet, etc.). My goal is to squirrel away as much of my paycheck as possible. I figure I can make it on about $200 a month, given my lack of bills. That will leave me with around $1500-$1800 (after deductions) a month to place into investments and savings. Of that I would like to put at least $1000 (and probably more likely $1200-$1500) towards stocks and/or mutual funds each month. The remainder of my disposable income I would like to put into a money market account for savings. My goal with the stocks and mutual funds would be to earn additional income, which would be redistributed into more investments and savings based on my future goals. My intention with the money market account is to establish an emergency fund of $3,000-$5,000, with anything over that amount being available for luxury purchases (guns, ammo, maybe a vehicle in a year or two). My target growth for stocks and/or mutual funds would be 8-10%. My target for a money market account would be 5%, but I'd take 4% if it meant going with a more reputable firm. Presently, I have $11,000 in cash with which to start.

That's my story, and here's my problem: I'm no financial wizkid. I know how to save money, but I don't really know how to make it grow. For example, are my goals realistic? How about if I invest x dollars in y stock that pays z dividend, how much do I make? Do I get dividends quarterly or annually? What do I need to look at to determine which stocks I should buy if I'm buying for dividends and not based on pure speculation? Which firm should I go with? I've been looking into Scottrade, would they be a good choice given my situation? For a money market account, which should I go with based on my goals? Are they easy to set up and maintain, and do they really allow easy access to the money? Can I effectively manage all of this via the internet?

These are just a few questions I have right now; I'm sure I'll think of more later. I appreciate any help offered.


Posted :: 11/5/2006 9:57:57 PM EDT



There is no pressing need for optics that allow shooters to make sniper shots from over one hundred meters.

Posted by Brady Campaign on Sunday, February 18, 2007 at 2:11 PM

omar
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Posted: 7/20/2007 11:30:08 PM
Update, 20 Jul 2007:

I’m contemplating selling off all of LVLT into earnings (26 Jul). I would significantly reduce the speculative component of the portfolio and replace it with four stocks equally divided into $1200 segments.

I’m happy with HAL and I believe CCIX will grow, although I bought it at the wrong time.

Here’s what I’m considering:

UTX- Has good domestic and overseas exposure, machinery play

AHM- Owned this before and it’s in a sector that is getting pounded – home mortgage.
I’m prepared to lose it all, but AHM will be my speculative play.

If and when it rebounds, it should move strongly. This sector is a train wreck, but AHM is so cheap now, the downside risk is minimal.

ACM – This is an infrastructure play in a very strong performing sector. I own a stake in this since $22 outside the 10K portfolio.

CBI- This is an infrastructure play based in Europe.

I’ll add more if I decide to do this

Jim

Current 10K numbers as of 20 July:

Cash: $55.98
Overall Value: $11,208.98

LVLT holdings at Friday close: $4,656.00
There is no pressing need for optics that allow shooters to make sniper shots from over one hundred meters.

Posted by Brady Campaign on Sunday, February 18, 2007 at 2:11 PM

omar
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Posted: 7/27/2007 7:11:45 PM
UPDATE:

SOLD 40 shares of HAL @37.03 on 26 July for a 26% gain.

I really wanted to reduce my LVLT, but I was too late to pull the trigger before the correction came. I figured August was the month, but it hit earlier than I forecast.

This can be a time of panic for an investor. I'm not concerned, as it is a normal market function. I was close to 15% unrealized gain when the correction came.

Monday options:

Buy 300 more shares of LVLT - why? To lower my overall cost. If I buy more shares, it's for a trade, not long term hold.
Buy 20 shares of UTX
Buy 35 share of CBI
Buy 55-60 shares of ACM (I have a position in this in another portfolio)
Also looking at AKAM, JEC, TXN; EMC and NYX (I have a position in both of these in another portfolio)

All mortgage and builders are presently toxic and off the table for the forseeable future.

Last option: do nothing.

$1,527.15 Cash

$10,245.75 10 portfolio value

Jim

There is no pressing need for optics that allow shooters to make sniper shots from over one hundred meters.

Posted by Brady Campaign on Sunday, February 18, 2007 at 2:11 PM

ar-jedi
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Posted: 7/31/2007 10:10:17 PM
[Last Edit: 7/31/2007 10:11:11 PM by ar-jedi]
data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 31 july 2007:






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,663.72, or up about 6.42% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,420.17, or up about 4.20% YTD.

ar-jedi
"Due to the special procedures performed by the Enigma machine, the solvability is so far removed from practical possibility that the cipher system of the machine must be regarded as virtually incapable of solution." -- German cryptographer, 1937
omar
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Posted: 8/10/2007 11:22:30 PM
[Last Edit: 8/10/2007 11:23:28 PM by omar]
UPDATE:

BOUGHT 10 shares of CCIX @ 16 on 10 August

CCIX has really been crushed in the last few weeks of trading and is the main reason I’m in negative territory at present. CCIX short interest skyrocketed in July and it got hammered along with BGC, it’s main competitor when BGC announced earnings. Due to low volume, I suspect CCIX is being manipulated and that there's no underlying problems with the stock that I'm aware of.

I’m not sweating it.

I was on the road when a lot of the CCIX drop was happening, but even so, I couldn’t call a bottom and CCIX is a very long term hold. All things considered, I probably would have not sold it anyway. In fact, if it goes lower, I may pick more shares up.

I also bought more ACM and EMC outside the 10K portfolio. EMC is a trade and I plan to sell it when EMC spins off the VMware IPO on 14 August.

10K Holdings:

60/HAL Long
110/CCIX Long
800/LVLT Long, may trade some if it runs above $7
$1357.15 Cash

$9752.45 portfolio value

Jim
There is no pressing need for optics that allow shooters to make sniper shots from over one hundred meters.

Posted by Brady Campaign on Sunday, February 18, 2007 at 2:11 PM

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Posted: 8/22/2007 8:26:20 PM
UPDATE:

BOUGHT 40 shares of CCIX @ 17.99 on 22 August
BOUGHT 100 shares of LVLT @ 5.06 on 22 August

CCIX continued to be crushed through August. The worst part was I had just sold my old house and was moving into a new one, which was hugely stressful for me, but also very profitable.

I only had my Blackberry, since I disconnected all my other comms and I see CCIX is under $10 and now I’m wondering WTF is going on. I get up and running by Friday and start to research. I see that the recently announced quarter was below expectations and the DOW is very negative, a double whammy in a very sucky week.

At this juncture, I consider it pointless to sell since CCIX is way oversold, so I take a wait and see, figuring I’ll add to the position and average down, since this is a long term hold and not a trading stock for me. I decide to add to CCIX after I digest the two items below:

- 21 August a co-chairman of Coleman Cable bought 66,300 shares of common stock. Insider buying is usually a good sign
- 16 August a hedge fund took a 2,000,000 share position almost at the very bottom of CCIXs drop, which I also found interesting.

I probably should’ve bought 100 shares, but I decided to add 100 shares to LVLT @ 5.03, giving me my cheapest shares to date.


10K Holdings:

60/HAL Long
150/CCIX Long
900/LVLT Long, will likely trade some if it runs above $7
$324.15 Cash

$ 8,742.15 portfolio value (-12.7%).

These are probably my last trades for the year and I still believe I’ll be at my target 15% at the end of the year.

LVLT is a big chunk of speculation and I don’t know when it will hit, but I’m willing to wait it out through early 2008. Nothing is levered to sub prime, so I’ve minimized exposure as best I could.

I also bought back CHDX at $17.99 for a trade into November outside of the 10k portfolio.

Jim

There is no pressing need for optics that allow shooters to make sniper shots from over one hundred meters.

Posted by Brady Campaign on Sunday, February 18, 2007 at 2:11 PM

FALARAK
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Posted: 8/30/2007 11:53:58 PM
Super interested to see arjedi's mix right now - are we going to get a EOM report?
They are all animated.... because they have really long necks....
It doesnt kick, it just has bad recoil.....
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Posted: 8/31/2007 12:39:59 AM

Originally Posted By FALARAK:
Super interested to see arjedi's mix right now - are we going to get a EOM report?


is a 24 hour wait until the EOM ok with you?

ar-jedi
"Due to the special procedures performed by the Enigma machine, the solvability is so far removed from practical possibility that the cipher system of the machine must be regarded as virtually incapable of solution." -- German cryptographer, 1937
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Posted: 9/3/2007 6:24:56 PM

data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 03 september 2007:






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,649.62, or up about 6.28% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,515.33, or up about 5.15% YTD.

ar-jedi

"Due to the special procedures performed by the Enigma machine, the solvability is so far removed from practical possibility that the cipher system of the machine must be regarded as virtually incapable of solution." -- German cryptographer, 1937
FALARAK
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Posted: 9/3/2007 8:50:40 PM

Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,649.62, or up about 6.28% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.


Outstanding.... given the turmoil. Cant wait till next month. I am betting on a big loss.
They are all animated.... because they have really long necks....
It doesnt kick, it just has bad recoil.....
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Posted: 9/3/2007 9:04:16 PM

Originally Posted By FALARAK:
Outstanding.... given the turmoil. Cant wait till next month. I am betting on a big loss.


your bet = sitting on cash or actively short?

ar-jedi

"Due to the special procedures performed by the Enigma machine, the solvability is so far removed from practical possibility that the cipher system of the machine must be regarded as virtually incapable of solution." -- German cryptographer, 1937
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Posted: 9/3/2007 10:08:59 PM
[Last Edit: 9/3/2007 10:25:02 PM by FALARAK]

Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
your bet = sitting on cash or actively short?


Cash... except for a few equities underwater and I still believe in.

I dont do the short game. Buying equities is gambling enough for me. Cash is paying 5.1% right now....

I know fear should be controlled in personal investments... but I am fearful about the next two months, and cash just seems like it gives me more options right now. I plan to re-evaluate in 60 days.... maybe sooner if there is movement.

PS... I felt the exact same way laster year, at this exact same time. I pulled to cash - and that turned out to be a huge mistake. However... the market is in a different place than it was last year (at least, that is what I am telling myself to rationalize it)
They are all animated.... because they have really long necks....
It doesnt kick, it just has bad recoil.....
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Posted: 9/3/2007 10:17:23 PM
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Posted: 9/4/2007 5:34:25 PM

Originally Posted By FALARAK:

I know fear should be controlled in personal investments... but I am fearful about the next two months, and cash just seems like it gives me more options right now. I plan to re-evaluate in 60 days.... maybe sooner if there is movement.


If the liquidity crunch turns out to be really bad, you might be the one having the last laugh if you're long in cash right now. I'm no CFA and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but if big names like JPM Chase are going to the discount window to borrow cash, that has me worried across a whole bunch of sectors.
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Posted: 9/29/2007 2:30:46 AM
[Last Edit: 9/29/2007 2:36:41 AM by ar-jedi]

data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 29 september 2007:






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $ 11,032.45, or up about 10.10% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,875.59, or up about 8.76% YTD.



ar-jedi

ETA:
there was a recent distribution for IJJ (iShares S&P MidCap 400 Value Index ETF); this is already reflected in the data shown above.
"Due to the special procedures performed by the Enigma machine, the solvability is so far removed from practical possibility that the cipher system of the machine must be regarded as virtually incapable of solution." -- German cryptographer, 1937
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Posted: 10/7/2007 10:29:32 PM

FBLAX distributed both capital gains and a dividend on 05 october 2007.
the attached info reflects this adjustment.


data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 07 october 2007:



summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $11,289.24, or up about 12.67% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $11,082.90, or up about 10.83% YTD.

ar-jedi

"Due to the special procedures performed by the Enigma machine, the solvability is so far removed from practical possibility that the cipher system of the machine must be regarded as virtually incapable of solution." -- German cryptographer, 1937
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Posted: 10/8/2007 3:24:56 PM
[Last Edit: 10/8/2007 3:28:53 PM by iNuhBaDNayburhood]
For $10,000, I'm a big fan of the DJ-5 Strategy (AKA: Dogs of the Dow strategy/scheme)... Has worked pretty well too!

Basically, if you've got $10,000 sitting around that you can spare, check up on the Dow Jones Industrial listings, and find the top-10 performing stocks (lists can be found on the internet just about anywhere).

Then pick 5 of the top-10 performers (or just pick the top-5), and buy up $2000 of each of those 5 stocks!

The dividends & splits of each stock will compound and be reinvested into more shares, and then you'll get to watch your investment return about 20% per year on average... At the end of each year, see which ones are still top performers, and after holding the stocks for 370 days, sell the 'under-performer' stocks, and buy into the ones that are returning higher average percentages on their dividends...

However, if I had $10,000 more to invest in I'd play it a bit more risky...

Invest in the top-4 DJIA performers, and keep $2000 on the side to daytrade in the penny stocks... Then take the $$ earned from the daytrading, dump that back into your long-term investments with the DJIA top-4/5.

Right now I've just got stock in Pfizer, and I've thrown a majority of my $$ into OTC:BB Securities shares, and I'm awaiting news & an 8K SEC filing to watch my money skyrocket soon. Then another cash-out, and reinvestment of more $$ back into the DowJones Top-5 for a long-hold.

YMMV, but it's worked pretty effectively for many investors over time, and I'll see how things go soon enough with my OTC Securities (Very Risky)...

That said, if you put in enough research & DD you can usually come out NICELY on top after a couple flips & buy-ins with the right timing... After WorldCom crashed I bought in about 7cents/share, flipped a couple times and walked away with $14,500 in profit just as it moved onto the pinksheets market.

YMMV.
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Posted: 10/8/2007 8:39:08 PM
[Last Edit: 10/8/2007 8:40:14 PM by ar-jedi]

Originally Posted By iNuhBaDNayburhood:
For $10,000, I'm a big fan of the DJ-5 Strategy (AKA: Dogs of the Dow strategy/scheme)... Has worked pretty well too!
Basically, if you've got $10,000 sitting around that you can spare, check up on the Dow Jones Industrial listings, and find the top-10 performing stocks (lists can be found on the internet just about anywhere).
Then pick 5 of the top-10 performers (or just pick the top-5), and buy up $2000 of each of those 5 stocks!


you didn't explain this correctly, and that makes me wonder.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogs_of_the_dow


Originally Posted By iNuhBaDNayburhood:
The dividends & splits of each stock will compound and be reinvested into more shares, and then you'll get to watch your investment return about 20% per year on average.


no way.

for the past 7 years,


ar-jedi
"Due to the special procedures performed by the Enigma machine, the solvability is so far removed from practical possibility that the cipher system of the machine must be regarded as virtually incapable of solution." -- German cryptographer, 1937
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Posted: 10/9/2007 9:26:20 AM
[Last Edit: 10/9/2007 9:41:26 AM by iNuhBaDNayburhood]
There is more to it than just that...

Also, though the Price Per Share on some of the 'dogs' will decrease! There also is no 'rule' stating that you MUST hold onto those shares, or invest in the same 5 companies for a full year! You'll be taxed for selling/flipping, but that's all a personal preference...

What I'm saying is that even though those 'dogs' do have a turnover rate (and the WikiLink you provided cites this source further mentioning the 'evolution' of the theories, and how their popularity has caused some issues, but can still be a viable investment if you play your cards right), and sometimes show a negative rate, it's important to note HOW YOU MANAGE your investments in them, and contrary to popular opinion, ***IT IS POSSIBLE TO MAKE MONEY IN A 'DOWN' MARKET***

Even though the price/share drops, it is common fact that the dividend payouts are not significantly reduced, and they are quite stable compared to many other stocks... If the $/share drops I'd consider it a good buying opportunity to pick up shares for cheaper, and still compound a significant dividend.

Personally, I **PREFER** investing in companies that are in financial jeopardy, or have issues with assets, etc. It's INFINITELY riskier, but much better return on your investment if you do your research.

Another favorite of mine is newly emerging technologies & trends that are on the upswing (and you can sometimes catch IPO shares, securities, etc.)...

Industries such as Agriculture, Energy, Aerospace, Machinery, and Minerals are consistently growing right now, and to NOT catch the train and take it for a ride seems ignorant.

FAR TOO MANY investors are easily frightened by the first sign of a downturn and normal market fluctuations, they sell out their shares and take a loss...
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Posted: 10/9/2007 9:51:09 AM
[Last Edit: 10/9/2007 9:52:14 AM by USMC88-93]

Originally Posted By omar:
I found that and I also found who wanted to sell AAPL at around $83
(USMC88-93) archive.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=535449(I'd been looking for that) I hope he held off selling.

No I kept AAPL it and as of today 10/9/2007 I am up 145%, now I just need to figure out where to set up a stop loss sell if it starts back down too far again.

My other choices on the other hand are not so hot.
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Posted: 10/16/2007 7:21:12 PM

Originally Posted By iNuhBaDNayburhood:
Personally, I **PREFER** investing in companies that are in financial jeopardy, or have issues with assets, etc. It's INFINITELY riskier, but much better return on your investment if you do your research.


this is called "Value Investing". ps: i strongly disagree with your word "INFINITELY".


Originally Posted By iNuhBaDNayburhood:
Another favorite of mine is newly emerging technologies & trends that are on the upswing (and you can sometimes catch IPO shares, securities, etc.)...


this is called "Growth Investing".

you have just covered the two major but diametrically opposed schools of thought on modern investing techniques.

ar-jedi

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Posted: 10/30/2007 10:10:44 AM
How the 10k portfolio doing?

It seems LVLT took a hit.
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant: It's just that they know so much that isn't so." Ronald Reagan



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Posted: 10/30/2007 11:24:20 AM

Originally Posted By migradog:
It seems LVLT took a hit.


They are all animated.... because they have really long necks....
It doesnt kick, it just has bad recoil.....
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Posted: 10/31/2007 12:56:23 AM

Originally Posted By FALARAK:

Originally Posted By migradog:
It seems LVLT took a hit.





Level 3 plunged 17% after the telco slashed its cash flow guidance for the next two years.
The Broomfield, Colo., company said growth in customers' use of its services has failed to keep pace with network upgrade expenses


Thanks for the informative answer.
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant: It's just that they know so much that isn't so." Ronald Reagan



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Posted: 10/31/2007 8:52:50 AM

Originally Posted By migradog:
Thanks for the informative answer.


was the look on my face when I saw the LVLT stock price..... as an investor in the stock.

They are all animated.... because they have really long necks....
It doesnt kick, it just has bad recoil.....
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