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Posted: 2/1/2017 4:37:49 PM EDT
Since Apple had a good day, to those who own it... At what price do you feel that you would unload it? I've seen estimates that $140 seems to be the median, some are saying $180. I'm just curious.

AAPL likes to have nice swings and I've made a decent amount selling on the highs and buying on the lows, but right now it's at a $40 profit for me which seems attractive. I just don't seem how much more the smartphone market can go for the foreseeable future. I don't need the money or anything, though a new truck would be nice.
Link Posted: 2/1/2017 8:04:01 PM EDT
[#1]
Link Posted: 2/6/2017 10:45:17 PM EDT
[#2]
I could kick my own ass, i was playing around since i really dont mess with stocks on a regular basis and bought at 84 and sold at 88 last year. Should have bought more and held on tight.
Link Posted: 2/7/2017 12:47:12 AM EDT
[#3]
Now.  The upside potential is dwarfed by the downside risk.  You are already sitting pretty at 130, take the money and run.

I don't hate Apple in the slightest, I owned their stock for years, but the simple fact is when the end comes, it's coming fast.

You have to stop and think about the revenue stream and high margins that it takes to maintain a $0.7 Trillion market cap.  The vast majority of Apple's revenue is iPhones.  Their desktop/laptop business and their other revenue streams are a drop in the bucket.  So what happens to Apple when phones become mere commodities and no longer command premium prices and premium margins?  They've got no other product in the works to fall back on which could possibly replace that lost revenue when that day comes.  They would need a hit as big as the iPhone to backfill the $150 Billion in avenue revenue that's at risk here and singular hits like that are so rare that I think the iPhone itself may already stand alone as the all time record holder.  

The death of the iPhone as a runaway hit product with ridiculous margins is painfully predictable.  It is the very nature of tech that we know this will happen one day.  The hill that Apple has to climb once that happens to continue to justify their market cap is nearly an impossible hurdle.  It basically requires that they top what has already been the most successful tech product in history.  It is definitely POSSIBLE that they could pull it off but the odds are not in the investor's favor long term.

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With that said, there is some logic in owning Apple as a dividend stock.  The market is already valuing the company at a relatively conservative 11 times earnings which means I'm not the only one who sees the glass ceiling on their future growth.  You could conceivably milk that cash cow for however many years it takes for the inevitable maturation of the phone business.  You just have to be ready to bounce the second their iPhone business shows any sign of weakness with zero hesitation because when it happens those juicy margins that make a $0.7 Trillion market cap possible are going to evaporate and dramatically shrink the value of the company.
Link Posted: 2/7/2017 2:34:40 AM EDT
[#4]
I don't see anything replacing the iPhone anytime soon. My family has four of them and we will continue to buy new ones as long as they continue to work like they do. I don't own any apple stock other the. In my mutual funds but I think apple will be selling a shit ton of phones for a long long time.
Link Posted: 2/7/2017 3:30:13 AM EDT
[#5]
I have 400 shares and plan on selling half. There is still the possibility Trump can get them to repatriate their foreign cash and pay out some serious dividends.
Link Posted: 2/7/2017 3:25:38 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I don't see anything replacing the iPhone anytime soon. My family has four of them and we will continue to buy new ones as long as they continue to work like they do. I don't own any apple stock other the. In my mutual funds but I think apple will be selling a shit ton of phones for a long long time.
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It's not just about iPhones being replaced or not.  It's also about when they become commodities and no longer command $600 per each in the market.  This happens to every tech gadget including video game consoles, music players, desktop computers, you name it.  I think you have to at least recognize this eventuality if you are going to invest in Apple.  

Remember the Motorola RAZR?  They launched for $599 some 12 years ago and were the hot "high end" phone of the time.  By the end of that product's life cycle they were practically giving them away.  To say that the iPhone won't be replaced or commoditized at some point is say that "it'll be different this time".  

My bigger point in this is about what Apple can do about it when this happens.  You have the largest company in the world by market cap hanging by a thread of a single product in one of the most fickle markets out there with a proven track record of booms and busts.  That's the big risk that people need to understand when investing in Apple.  It's not like you are investing in Proctor and Gamble where no single product makes or breaks the company.
Link Posted: 2/7/2017 3:26:32 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I have 400 shares and plan on selling half. There is still the possibility Trump can get them to repatriate their foreign cash and pay out some serious dividends.
View Quote


Any dividends they pay out would detract from the value of the shares once it was said and done.  It's not like their huge cash reserve is unaccounted for in the share price.
Link Posted: 2/7/2017 5:05:44 PM EDT
[#8]
Sold my position a few days ago after their rise on earnings. I'm uncertain about their future (see above) and feel like my money will be put to better use in some other companies.
Link Posted: 2/8/2017 1:05:04 AM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Any dividends they pay out would detract from the value of the shares once it was said and done.  It's not like their huge cash reserve is unaccounted for in the share price.
View Quote


True but cash in hand is better than the volatility of the price. I'm so far up that it would literally have to drop 75% for me to lose. That is why I am selling half. I'm willing to play with the remaining 200.

Might be a while for dividends to catch up to price but I'm already ahead
Link Posted: 2/9/2017 12:07:02 AM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


True but cash in hand is better than the volatility of the price. I'm so far up that it would literally have to drop 75% for me to lose. That is why I am selling half. I'm willing to play with the remaining 200.

Might be a while for dividends to catch up to price but I'm already ahead
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:


Any dividends they pay out would detract from the value of the shares once it was said and done.  It's not like their huge cash reserve is unaccounted for in the share price.


True but cash in hand is better than the volatility of the price. I'm so far up that it would literally have to drop 75% for me to lose. That is why I am selling half. I'm willing to play with the remaining 200.

Might be a while for dividends to catch up to price but I'm already ahead


I'm not trying to be facetious at all but I don't understand what you are getting at.  If cash in hand is better than the volatility of the share price then why aren't you selling the other half now to capture that value instead of waiting for it to arrive in the form of a dividend?

I understand every sentence your wrote individually but when you put them together they don't make any sense to me.  Sorry if I'm having a dense moment but I don't get it.  

If Apple is worth $130 and they pay out a $30 per share special dividend after repatriating foreign cash, they are going to be worth about $100 the second they go ex dividend.  You don't need to wait for anything, the value of that cash can be captured right now by simply selling the shares.
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