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saw some video recommending "I series bonds."  Does that include TIPS and I bonds both or was he just referring to I bonds?  Went to treasury direct.gov, it seems like the main difference b/t TIPS & I bonds is that i bonds are not resellable.  Do you have to just sit on them for 10 or 30 years or whatever??  Seems like a big commitment.  Why would anyone buy i bonds rather than TIPS if I bonds are so illiquid?

Who knows why people do what they do, especially when it comes to $.  

Also, do any or all bonds pay out year to year or only at the end when you redeem them do you get the interest?

T-Bonds pay semi-annually.  T-Bills and zero coupon bonds are purchased at a discount and your return is reflected in return of face value at term.

Would there be any kind of tax incentive to buy bonds out of pocket if you have not hit your Roth IRA contribution limit or would it be better to just direct your roth into bond funds or ETFs if that is what you want to do?

The simplest way would be to use a bond ETF.

No ibonds or TIPS not only go up to protect aginst inflation, but the can also adjust down if there is delfation right, or not?  

That sword cuts both ways, both for and against you as the case may be.

Are there other types of bonds that a retail investor can by that do not adjust up (and down?) w/ CPI?

Yes.  "Normal" corporate and Treasury instruments are not inflation adjusted.  The problem becomes

Why would people buy non inflation protected bonds?

Because inflation adjusted bonds, while they sound good, typically underperform bonds in general (i.e. nothing is free).

What about bond ETFs and bond funds you could buy in your IRAs or as a retail investor.  What is the point of one vs the other vs just buying from treasury direct.gov?

Treasury Direct purchases are electronic, remain in your TD account and cannot be held in an IRA.

Man, posting this just made me realize how severely ignorant I am about bonds

I would really appreciate any info b/c I am looking to save my gains before the bubble pops.  I'd rather be early than late.

Don't feel bad:  bonds are at the same time both exceedingly complex (google duration and how to immunize a bond portfolio) and exceedingly simple.  If you don't know what you are doing, you can get your head handed to you pretty quickly all the while thinking you had a bulletproof investment.  And, on the other hand, you can easily make money much more easily trading bonds (when conditions are right) than equities while enjoying things like a guaranteed minimum return.

Don't take this the wrong way, but if you admitted don't know enough about bonds but at the same time are willing to (attempt) to protect yourself from the impending collapse of "the bubble" using bonds, you should consider the possibility of doing yourself more financial harm attempting to avoid financial harm that just riding out whatever storm comes...if it comes at all.

What would I do if I were dead set on getting bonds?  Right now?  Short term bond ETF although realize that your real income will be negative even before taxes are taken into consideration.

Last question, if you buy a bond that does not adjust down for deflation to where in a deflationary environment it is worth more in real terms when you sell/redeem it than when you bought it, can that increasing in purchasing power be consider a form of capitol gains or does capitol gains only go by price in terms of US dollars?

Capital gains are capital gains (you didn't think the .gov was going to let you calculate income in real $, did you? )

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regarding "the bubble" it seems that there is a geeneral deflationary trend in the economies.



To fight this is the ostensible reason the central banks are "printing money."  Much of this $$ has ended up in equies b/c those w/ access to the fed window find it porfitable to borrow as basically 0% and speculate to earn big returns.  Real estate is also inflated in a bubble, to a lesser degree, for the same reasons per this narrative.  The insiders are all playing along, front running the fed till the game stops.  The non insider should take his gains and get out before getting slaughtered like a greedy pig by the insiders.   When the bubble pops, there will be lots of hot money flowing to safety in cash and bonds(, maybe gold to but gold often looses in deflation)



This narrative is pretty confining to me for various reasons.  Largely b/c general demogaphic trends are pushing towards deflatiary collapse as money and credit is deleveraging/contracting along w/ popular spending, though in a longer term gov could react and cause hyper inflation farther out.  Anyway, in deflatioary inviroments, like abrupt deflation if you will, bonds & cash do best (provided the gov itself doesn't fail lol).





My strategy would be to protect my balance now w/ bonds/money market, and then to buy back into the market at some point when it is a bargin, though not necessarily at hte exact bottom b/c I am not in a position to know something that everyone else doesn't about where the exact bottom would be (again, try not to be too greedy).  



I am in my 30's so I can suffer volatitliy, but my long term prosepects would be much better off if I avoid getting slaughtered this time.

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Good video on bonds from last year. This guy believes rates will continue lower.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6I2A4MW170

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You do know how duration, maybe more importantly the convexity of that duration,  works right?

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Also to answer your capital gain question, yes.

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Also, with etf's and mutual funds your net asset value is at the mercy of the people wanting to sell or buy.

Look at what the pricing action was for the build america bonds from the time they came out to about 1 year to 6 months before the federal government stopped paying the interest subsidy.

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okay, thanks, well that answers my question about how a bond ETF or other fund can be so much more volatile, and profitable, in the short term than the underlying interest rate of the bonds therein.

It works both ways I suppose, whether people ware scrambling to liquidate out or to get in.

Well shit, a couple months back I slightly increased my bond allocation by shifting from stock funds to bond funds.   I thought I was basically buying bonds to protect my self from equities market volatility.  Now I see that buying a bond fund is not the same thing as buying bonds or money market in terms of protection from volatility and that hot money flows or shifts in interest rate policy can make the bond fund volatile.  A guy could basically get killed if he enterex/exited bond funds at volitile times...





Tell me, were bond funds volitile in the past couple months w/ the dollar strenthing?   Did I buy into a bond fund when it was expensive??  That was the vanguard total bond fund or something, 70% US gov, 30% corporate.  ETA: This one: Total Bond Index
There are no longer any vanguard straight money market funds, just a sort-of money market fund that "invests in short term securities."  If I were looking to park some money as "cash" free from stock or bond market volatitliy, I guess this is the best option I have??  Here it is: Prime Money Market Fund





I am looking to avoid the slaughter that is coming.  Most of my contributions have been since '09 so I've really benefitted from my entry time and I don't want to loose that benefit.   I suppose thet the fed etc can keep the stock market bubble inflated for a few years, or even get uit pumped up more and I might miss out on some gains, but I am not some insider who will know the last moment to get out.  Even those most optomistic about the SM's potential for near term growth say that furhter growth faces "headwinds."  Some say P/E ratios are nuts, other say they've been a good deal higher (like leading into crashes) and there is room to gain, but all agree they are at not a bargain.  .  





Thx

My apologies, don't hate me

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I'd suggest reading "Why Bother with Bonds" by Rick Van Ness, it will school you on Bonds, its written in laymans terms also.