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Posted: 12/4/2014 2:29:21 AM EDT
[#1]
Electric company stocks seem to always be a good bet. NG is the cheapest its been in many years, gas and oil will continue to tumble. Unless there is a big demand for petro protects crude will keep falling.
Edit, isn't north Dakota oil companies putting something like 3500 new wells plus in a year? |
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Posted: 12/4/2014 3:04:24 PM EDT
[#2]
investing rule of thumb:
When everyone else is flocking towards a particular sector you should SELL and run in the opposite direction. Energy Sector has been hot for a while. |
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Posted: 12/4/2014 4:43:27 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
investing rule of thumb: When everyone else is flocking towards a particular sector you should SELL and run in the opposite direction. Energy Sector has been hot for a while. Energy has lost 7% on the year while the rest of the market is up 12%. Some subsectors, deepwater drillers for example, have done far far worse. Check out Transocean, SeaDrill, etc. |
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Posted: 12/4/2014 7:01:26 PM EDT
[#4]
Wouldn't now be a good time for energy stocks? They are down significantly on the year. Everything else is at record highs.
Just wondering how much longer energy stocks will fall. I like EOG for energy stocks. Looks pretty solid and my Uncle works for them. |
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Posted: 12/4/2014 8:56:30 PM EDT
[#5]
i have been investing in energy since 1980 and been thru several boom bust cycles
oil is likely to stay low for several quarters and this will weed out the weaker players, but prices will be back up i like the large integrated oils for their dividends and relative safety and the smaller E&P companies such as EOG, continental, concho resources for their ability to increase production and stronger balance sheet i would avoid companies with a lot of debt relative to equity, they are at risk |
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Posted: 12/5/2014 7:48:53 PM EDT
[#6]
One smaall Middle East event with ISIS and we're up again
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Posted: 12/7/2014 8:29:31 PM EDT
[#7]
This is perfect timing
I need help in investing about 10 k in to the energy market PLEASE HELP I would like to not Loose my ass per say So I would like to listen and learn before it is to late. Thanks Jaime |
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Posted: 12/8/2014 8:19:03 PM EDT
[#8]
Right now is a great time to buy shares of energy funds.
The Vanguard Energy investment fund is down 20% for the last few months. Good buying opportunity. It will rebound once the market settles and the less efficient operators are out of business. The ones that are able to produce oil cheaper per barrel will thrive with more market share and less competition. People will always need energy and the population is only growing over time.
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Posted: 12/8/2014 8:32:04 PM EDT
[#9]
No expert but I don't think a guy couldn't go wrong with a few shares of Exxon. Hold for the long term as a core investment and reinvest all the dividends. ymmv
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Posted: 12/9/2014 12:55:44 AM EDT
[#10]
VDE or XLE. I like VDE because it is commision free at vanguard. Start nibbling.
If you have 10k to invest in energy for the long haul, buy 10 shares tomorrow then average in from there. I think there is more downside, but can't call a bottom. Sub $50 oil isn't out of the question in the next few months. |
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Posted: 12/9/2014 9:23:30 PM EDT
[#11]
Which reputable energy names pay the best dividends? Im wanting to go shopping for my IRA.
Looking at mining and oil/energy sectors. They have both been beaten up badly. A big chunk of the pain has come from a stronger dollar. Dont think that will last forever either. |
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Posted: 12/10/2014 9:45:36 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Which reputable energy names pay the best dividends? Im wanting to go shopping for my IRA. Looking at mining and oil/energy sectors. They have both been beaten up badly. A big chunk of the pain has come from a stronger dollar. Dont think that will last forever either. MLP's Chevron Conocophillips Yields look nice now, but you have to wonder if they'll maintain the same dividend With oil down 40%. And be wary of dividend chasing. A 5% dividend isn't worth much when the underlying asset loses 25%. |
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Posted: 12/12/2014 5:56:45 PM EDT
[#13]
I've been waiting for oil stocks to sell off for a while now. One I owned earlier this year is down a lot already. I'm going to buy in again but I think it's a little too early. STO is the symbol. I sold it at a little above $30, it's about $16 now. Most of the company is owned by Norway. The drawback is they take Norwegian tax on dividends even in retirement accounts and I'm guessing it costs them a lot to produce a barrel judging by how bad the stock has tanked compared to others. I'm also looking at getting XOM and CVX maybe BP also.
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Posted: 12/16/2014 12:55:14 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I've been waiting for oil stocks to sell off for a while now. One I owned earlier this year is down a lot already. I'm going to buy in again but I think it's a little too early. STO is the symbol. I sold it at a little above $30, it's about $16 now. Most of the company is owned by Norway. The drawback is they take Norwegian tax on dividends even in retirement accounts and I'm guessing it costs them a lot to produce a barrel judging by how bad the stock has tanked compared to others. I'm also looking at getting XOM and CVX maybe BP also. looks like BP and LNCO mentioned earlier are making a bit of a (short lived) run today. picked up some more BP the last few days to balance earlier purchases. yeah, i know about falling knives and such. 
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Posted: 12/17/2014 10:09:23 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: looks like BP and LNCO mentioned earlier are making a bit of a (short lived) run today. picked up some more BP the last few days to balance earlier purchases. yeah, i know about falling knives and such. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I've been waiting for oil stocks to sell off for a while now. One I owned earlier this year is down a lot already. I'm going to buy in again but I think it's a little too early. STO is the symbol. I sold it at a little above $30, it's about $16 now. Most of the company is owned by Norway. The drawback is they take Norwegian tax on dividends even in retirement accounts and I'm guessing it costs them a lot to produce a barrel judging by how bad the stock has tanked compared to others. I'm also looking at getting XOM and CVX maybe BP also. looks like BP and LNCO mentioned earlier are making a bit of a (short lived) run today. picked up some more BP the last few days to balance earlier purchases. yeah, i know about falling knives and such. I'm going to start buying in. I'm going to do it in 3 buys spread out so I can average in if the price keeps falling. I'm looking at XOM, VDE, and STO. I decided to get VDE instead of BP and CVX |
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Posted: 12/17/2014 12:54:51 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm going to start buying in. I'm going to do it in 3 buys spread out so I can average in if the price keeps falling. I'm looking at XOM, VDE, and STO. I decided to get VDE instead of BP and CVX Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I've been waiting for oil stocks to sell off for a while now. One I owned earlier this year is down a lot already. I'm going to buy in again but I think it's a little too early. STO is the symbol. I sold it at a little above $30, it's about $16 now. Most of the company is owned by Norway. The drawback is they take Norwegian tax on dividends even in retirement accounts and I'm guessing it costs them a lot to produce a barrel judging by how bad the stock has tanked compared to others. I'm also looking at getting XOM and CVX maybe BP also. looks like BP and LNCO mentioned earlier are making a bit of a (short lived) run today. picked up some more BP the last few days to balance earlier purchases. yeah, i know about falling knives and such. I'm going to start buying in. I'm going to do it in 3 buys spread out so I can average in if the price keeps falling. I'm looking at XOM, VDE, and STO. I decided to get VDE instead of BP and CVX i'm in XOM too, but BP has shined being able to buy more shares for the dividends. |
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Posted: 12/18/2014 1:40:44 AM EDT
[#17]
I looked at LINE/LNCO the other day, based on an earlier post in this thread, but I went with ECA instead.
I may have misunderstood the information on LINE, but it appears as though they have no earnings. Maybe they distribute all earnings to their shareholders as Distributions (dividends), so there is no E in the P/E ratio. Again, I probably misunderstood the info that's out there. |
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Posted: 12/18/2014 10:45:04 AM EDT
[#18]
I've been sniffing around energy stocks myself and waiting for a general bottom before jumping in. Most alternative energys have been proven a wash so we are stuck with oil and gas for a while and a upward rising Third World economy growing more hungry for it every day. God put the majority of oil under some of the most politically unstable ground imaginable (might be a correlation
 ) and a major flare up in a few of those regions simultaneously will send it soaring again.
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Posted: 12/29/2014 11:02:22 PM EDT
[#19]
Oil always has its ups and downs. Now is definitely a good time to buy if you can ride it out until the next high. No one knows when that might be is the only kicker. It could be next year or it could be years from now but I can pretty much guarantee you that at some point during the next ten years oil we be at least double if not triple where it is today. I am so confident in this that I am considering moving about 100k of my retirement portfolio to the vanguard energy fund.
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Posted: 12/29/2014 11:09:27 PM EDT
[#20]
I bought STO, XOM, and VDE last week. I bought 75% and held back 25% in case they drop further.
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Posted: 12/31/2014 4:29:30 PM EDT
[#21]
Lots of lowball numbers being speculated the last few weeks. The most recent $14 possible ?
If we get a crash in oil prices of something like this, it will be time to load up big time. I do think we will see sub-$50/bbl however. How much lower from there I dont know. |
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Posted: 12/31/2014 6:37:00 PM EDT
[#22]
I have been looking at USO which is an OIL ETF. Not looking to hold it forever. I am expecting (hopefully) to double my money in the next few years. Just dont think oil is going to be low forever.
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Posted: 12/31/2014 8:12:55 PM EDT
[#23]
Oil is in a major bear market right now but it is not likely to last forever.
The world needs and turns on oil, it will rebound, it may take 1-3 years to happen but if you buy energy stocks now and hold for a few years you will make plenty out of the deal. If it can fall by 50% then it can rise again by at least as much if not more, look at what the S&P 500 did after the crash in 2008. Buying opportunities like this are what make patient investors rich. ETA: the idiots in Saudi Arabia that say it will never hit 100$ again are the some morons who said it would never break 50$, shortsighted fools. |
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Posted: 1/1/2015 1:51:53 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I have been looking at USO which is an OIL ETF. Not looking to hold it forever. I am expecting (hopefully) to double my money in the next few years. Just dont think oil is going to be low forever. Owning that outside of a retirement account can be a pain for taxes. Expect a statement from them in late March. I can't remember the exact forms I had to file but it was a hassle since I had already filed and received a refund when their statement came in the mail. |
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Posted: 1/2/2015 7:06:27 PM EDT
[#25]
Anyone looking at Transocean (RIG) right now? Seems to be pretty beat up at the moment.
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Posted: 1/2/2015 9:01:35 PM EDT
[#26]
I just bought another $5k of VDE today. Yes, it might still drop some more. But it seems highly improbable that oil will stay at $55-60 forever. The demand has never gone away. If one camel farts in the Middle East, supply interruptions, real or perceived, are likely. It will go back up.
Even if oil settles at $80, that's 25% higher than it is now. Energy is a classic case of Buffet's statements regarding greed and fear. |
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Posted: 1/2/2015 9:09:43 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I just bought another $5k of VDE today. Yes, it might still drop some more. But it seems highly improbable that oil will stay at $55-60 forever. The demand has never gone away. If one camel farts in the Middle East, supply interruptions, real or perceived, are likely. It will go back up. Even if oil settles at $80, that's 25% higher than it is now. Energy is a classic case of Buffet's statements regarding greed and fear. Nice trade. You won't loose money. |
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Posted: 1/2/2015 10:52:36 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I just bought another $5k of VDE today. Yes, it might still drop some more. But it seems highly improbable that oil will stay at $55-60 forever. The demand has never gone away. If one camel farts in the Middle East, supply interruptions, real or perceived, are likely. It will go back up. Even if oil settles at $80, that's 25% higher than it is now. Energy is a classic case of Buffet's statements regarding greed and fear. Nice, I'm planning on doing the same. I figure even if it doesn't play out in the short/mid term, VDE is something I'd be comfortable holding for a while, which is my usual strategy in the first place. I just can't decide if I should offload some Facebook or VYM to fund it though.
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Posted: 1/2/2015 11:37:12 PM EDT
[#29]
I initially bought in during 2011 at $113. I bought some more in 2012 at $100. And now at $112.
Yeah, it took a 9% dump in 2014. But its 5 year return is 7.8% and 10 year return is 9.5%. So, I'll continue to hang tight with VDE. |
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Posted: 1/3/2015 12:06:33 PM EDT
[#30]
I have never invested before but have five grand that I would like to invest probably in vde. Which site do you guys recommend for middle manning my purchase?
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Posted: 1/3/2015 7:54:47 PM EDT
[#31]
Vanguard. You can buy and sell their funds and ETFs commission free with a Vanguard account.
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Posted: 1/3/2015 9:13:42 PM EDT
[#32]
Anyone looking at FENY (Fidelity MSCI Energy ETF). Its only been out under 2 years. It tracks the Morgan Stanley Energy index. Its composed of 99.87% energy, 87% Large cap, 98% US with 64% of the entire fund in the Top 10 holdings (which is very high: other energy funds have less than 10% invested in the top 10 holdings). Exxon and Chevron alone make up 34% alone. Thinking i will add this to my VGENX.
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Posted: 1/3/2015 10:01:46 PM EDT
[#33]
There are a lot of crazy-low numbers being thrown out there in the financial press. How about $40 or $30-ish ? I dont see a bottom yet, especially since the $USD strength is still moving higher.
I think the key here is to watch the us dollar. Once it starts to weaken relative to other major currencies, then maybe we will see a bottom. This could come about from several factors, especially if the Fed starts printing money again. still room to go lower |
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Posted: 1/5/2015 10:02:55 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I looked at LINE/LNCO the other day, based on an earlier post in this thread, but I went with ECA instead. I may have misunderstood the information on LINE, but it appears as though they have no earnings. Maybe they distribute all earnings to their shareholders as Distributions (dividends), so there is no E in the P/E ratio. Again, I probably misunderstood the info that's out there. LINE is set up differently than normal stock. It's a partnership or something. Instead of a 1099 you get a schedule K1 but they just cut their dividend and are down a shitload from the price a year or 2 ago might be a buying opportunity or they might slip further, I don't know enough to say either way. |
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Posted: 1/7/2015 9:33:38 PM EDT
[#35]
Ok, today we MIGHT be seeing a short term bottom here.
Time will tell. Im not buying yet |
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Posted: 1/8/2015 1:37:50 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone looking at FENY (Fidelity MSCI Energy ETF). Its only been out under 2 years. It tracks the Morgan Stanley Energy index. Its composed of 99.87% energy, 87% Large cap, 98% US with 64% of the entire fund in the Top 10 holdings (which is very high: other energy funds have less than 10% invested in the top 10 holdings). Exxon and Chevron alone make up 34% alone. Thinking i will add this to my VGENX. VGENX has 40% in its top ten holdings which are all oil related. Looks to me like about 95% of it is oil related with the other 5% being things like coal and utilities. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0051&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 I don't see anything really wrong with FENY but I don't see any huge advantage to it over VGENX. I made our 2015 IRA contributions today $5500 each for the wife and I and put it all in VGENX. Keep in mind this is part of a larger retirement portfolio that is well diversified and this 11k doesn't too heavily skew our allocation. While I think this a good place to put money now I don't recommend putting all your eggs in one basket so to speak. The last time VGENX was this low was April 2009 as a result of the 2008/2009 crash. Prior to that the last time it was this low was April 2005. Put another way other than about a six month period during the 2008/9 crash VGENX has been trading higher than where it currently is for about the last ten years. I see this as a spectacular buying opportunity if you have the ability and patience to wait until oil prices come back. |
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Posted: 1/8/2015 1:17:07 PM EDT
[#37]
I am watching a few of the fracking sand companies as well.
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Posted: 1/29/2015 7:58:50 PM EDT
[#38]
I'm getting close to making a 2nd buy of XOM and maybe adding CVX. I'm going to wait until oil hits the upper 30s though. Even if it goes lower than that I doubt it will be by much. I've got a 20 year timeline and just the dividends alone should make a nice return.
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Posted: 1/30/2015 11:13:30 AM EDT
[#39]
this is a good opportunity to get in the energy space. i have been buying exxon since the early 80's, you wont lose any money, same with chevron and conoco
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Posted: 1/31/2015 1:01:52 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
...and the population is only growing over time. not actually, not in the west, japan, S korea, hell, even much of latin america is not at or below replacememnt levels. |
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Posted: 1/31/2015 1:03:57 AM EDT
[#41]
Quoted:
I don't think OPEC can sustain $65-$70 oil due to fears of causing another Arab Spring situation from not doling out enough for the leaches. inspeite of all the oppulence of the royal families, the arabs have substantial national reserves of different assets that they can use to balane the books in the mean time. Note that much of their holding are in USD, much of this is now more valuable.... |
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Posted: 1/31/2015 1:16:10 AM EDT
[#42]
do you all really think that we are near the bottom? I am thinking about buying in but waiting for near $30.
I am just looking at the oil price and the USD index. I don't have more detailed fundemental knowledge of particular companies or whatever, just the big picture that we are in a straong deflation trend, globally, and that in deflation the value of dollars goes up and the price of assets goes down and demand goes down and inventories go up. seems to me that most of these shale/facking operations have no choice but to pump them for all that they are worth if they can make even a sliver of a profit b/c they have to pay their loans, but when these fast depeleting wells go dry in a year or three, they are not apt to get any more financing and if interest rates are higer they won't be able to afford it even if it was available. The fracking boom was as much dependent on low rates as high prices being that it is "capitol intensive" compared to traditional type wells. Of course, there is no telling what the fed will do, at this point, I would not be teribly surprised if htey actually helicoptered money to the people to fight deflation so we will see. The main question is what percentage of frackign/shale production of active wells will continue w/ oil at $30-40/barrel for the next few years till they dry up and what percentage will just stop? How far into the future are these operations hedged?? |
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Posted: 1/31/2015 8:44:34 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: do you all really think that we are near the bottom? I am thinking about buying in but waiting for near $30. I am just looking at the oil price and the USD index. I don't have more detailed fundemental knowledge of particular companies or whatever, just the big picture that we are in a straong deflation trend, globally, and that in deflation the value of dollars goes up and the price of assets goes down and demand goes down and inventories go up. seems to me that most of these shale/facking operations have no choice but to pump them for all that they are worth if they can make even a sliver of a profit b/c they have to pay their loans, but when these fast depeleting wells go dry in a year or three, they are not apt to get any more financing and if interest rates are higer they won't be able to afford it even if it was available. The fracking boom was as much dependent on low rates as high prices being that it is "capitol intensive" compared to traditional type wells. Of course, there is no telling what the fed will do, at this point, I would not be teribly surprised if htey actually helicoptered money to the people to fight deflation so we will see. The main question is what percentage of frackign/shale production of active wells will continue w/ oil at $30-40/barrel for the next few years till they dry up and what percentage will just stop? How far into the future are these operations hedged?? I think you might be right on the eventual price but the middle east isn't a stable place and lots of things could cause a sudden rebound. Right at the end of trading yesterday oil jumped almost 8% for no reason. I didn't want to miss the buying opportunity so I made a partial buy and held some money back to average down if it drops further. |
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Posted: 2/2/2015 11:59:17 PM EDT
[#44]
I don't want anyone to get in trouble but I've been killing it with uwti.... 3x oil bull.
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Posted: 2/3/2015 11:40:47 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I don't want anyone to get in trouble but I've been killing it with uwti.... 3x oil bull. I was pissed at Scottrade. I transferred money into my account specifically to buy some uwti when it was in the 2.50 range, but Scottrade held the funds for 3 days because the stock was under 3 bucks. I had no idea they did that! Now since uwti been on a big uptick, I'm not sure I want to jump in now... |
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Posted: 2/3/2015 12:50:45 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I was pissed at Scottrade. I transferred money into my account specifically to buy some uwti when it was in the 2.50 range, but Scottrade held the funds for 3 days because the stock was under 3 bucks. I had no idea they did that! Now since uwti been on a big uptick, I'm not sure I want to jump in now... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I don't want anyone to get in trouble but I've been killing it with uwti.... 3x oil bull. I was pissed at Scottrade. I transferred money into my account specifically to buy some uwti when it was in the 2.50 range, but Scottrade held the funds for 3 days because the stock was under 3 bucks. I had no idea they did that! Now since uwti been on a big uptick, I'm not sure I want to jump in now... Yeah they do that with electronic transfers. I had to learn that the hard way as well. Next time I transfer money to Scottrade, I will be getting a cashiers check and taking it straight to their branch office. |
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Posted: 2/3/2015 3:20:28 PM EDT
[#47]
so, have low oil prices necesssarily translated into low energy co equities prices?
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Posted: 2/3/2015 4:22:38 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
so, have low oil prices necesssarily translated into low energy co equities prices? Depends on the company, but energy companies (depending) are diversified into a lot of different things. So quick research (use the research function of your trading platform) and read a few analyst reports (easy to read, don't be intimidated) and you'll see they have their fingers in a lot of pots. |
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Posted: 2/4/2015 2:09:13 AM EDT
[#49]
VDE was up 3% today.
Remain patient. Stay in for the long haul. Does anyone think that solar, wind and nuclear are suddenly going to make oil obsolete? It will go up. Russia will get frisky, some gulf state ruler will fart, and Venezuela will have a coup. The oil market is very twitchy and anything as silly as what I just said will keep it going up. I might buy a bit more VDE. |
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Posted: 2/4/2015 10:53:43 PM EDT
[#50]
Well after posting this I got in a few more oil stocks.
Oasis at 12 LNCO at 11 KEY at $1.21 CRZO at $35 PXD at mid 130s Loaded up more on FANG and EOG Also picked up PE and BP as potential buyouts ( I agree with analysts that we will see some consolidation and high M&A this yr) I stayed put and pulled the trigger when oil was in the low 40s. I believe it will go down back into the 40s, but with the rig count declining we will see the shale production drop. Many of the shale wells have declines in the 70% range In the first few months of production and no new wells being permitted. So when the next drop in the price drop it might be the last time it's this low for awhile. I am also predicting we will have a price ceiling like we are seeing in nat gas. This is due the availability to drill oil shale that is only economical at higher prices. Look at the Haynsville as an example. |
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