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Javak
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Posted: 4/4/2012 11:52:22 AM

THE IMAGE ABOVE IS A PAID ADVERTISEMENT
Best Buy
Barnes & Noble
Groupon

I just don't see how the first two will survive in long terms without major restructuring or buyout, and Groupon smells more and more like a pre-Y2K internet scam company. The question is if they have hit the bottom, or are there still room for shorting?
Is It Schizoid Paranoia or Just Existential Blues?
graysonp
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Posted: 4/4/2012 2:15:48 PM
[Last Edit: 4/4/2012 2:21:36 PM by graysonp]
It depends on a lot of factors. A big one is how long do you intend to short them? Do you think they're going to continue to fall or file for bankruptcy in that time period? Would the return be big enough to justify shorting a bad stock instead of investing in a good one? It could take a long time for a company to fail, so you have to ask yourself how long you want to hold the short position.

Does your brokerage charge margin interest on short sales? A lot of them do, since they have to borrow the stock for you to short it.

If you do decide to short any of these stocks, check the dates for their next earnings releases and look for clues as to whether or not they'll meet analyst expectations. That is where you will see larger swings in the share price that could boost (or kill) your return.

As far as just opinions on the stocks, I do agree with you. Best Buy and Barnes & Noble both need some restructuring or re-branding of their company (or both) in order to turn things around. I'm not sold on Groupon either. They have shown some great growth, but they haven't been able to turn it into increasing profits and with the heavy competition in the daily-deal websites, I don't think they have a ton of potential for increasing in size.
Javak
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Posted: 4/4/2012 2:45:37 PM
Thanks for the tips on margin interest and earning release date. That's really helpful.
Is It Schizoid Paranoia or Just Existential Blues?
graysonp
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Posted: 4/4/2012 3:50:33 PM
Here's a Smart Money/WSJ article from today. Have you seen this already, or is it just a coincidence?

3 Stocks Short-Sellers Are Targeting
Javak
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Posted: 4/4/2012 4:28:45 PM

Originally Posted By graysonp:
Here's a Smart Money/WSJ article from today. Have you seen this already, or is it just a coincidence?

3 Stocks Short-Sellers Are Targeting

It's just a coincident. There was a thread here about Best Buy closing 50 stores, and Groupon got caught with its accounting shenanigan. I just threw B&N in for good measure since its business model is as outdated as BB.

Groupon seems like it would just dissolve into nothing.
Is It Schizoid Paranoia or Just Existential Blues?
Soonerborn75
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Posted: 4/5/2012 6:28:44 AM
[Last Edit: 4/5/2012 6:29:26 AM by Soonerborn75]
Groupon is an eventual zero.

I like shorting newer chinese companies after a big climb. A whole lot of scams coming out of there with many shorting opportunities.

I am still looking to short apple. They have had a parabolic rise, only one way that ends. Waiting for them to fail a trend line then i will short. I may get forced out a few times but i want to be in on that blow off.
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Posted: 4/5/2012 8:50:33 AM
[Last Edit: 4/5/2012 8:55:44 AM by graysonp]
Originally Posted By Soonerborn75:
I am still looking to short apple. They have had a parabolic rise, only one way that ends. Waiting for them to fail a trend line then i will short. I may get forced out a few times but i want to be in on that blow off.


Not a good idea, imo. Don't make the mistake of assuming that a stock that rises quickly must fall. That's not true at all, and will get you into a lot of trouble trying to short stocks. You need to look at a company's fundamentals and ensure that they actually have a high chance of failing. There are 2 ways a meteoric rise is stock price can end: falling, or continuing to climb. Don't forget the latter.

Apple is not overvalued by any means at all. Their growth is outpacing the rise in their share price and P/E. They continue to exceed analyst expectations, and the new Ipad has reportedly set several sales records. They're sitting on a huge pile of cash that's rapidly growing with no debt. The recently announced buyback and dividend is going to make them attractive to thousands of new investors and mutual funds looking for large cap dividend stocks. They have several new products in the pipeline and are expanding current products into new markets (iPhones into China for example). Until we see some indication that their sales/profit margins are falling, or the pipeline of new products is empty, shorting Apple is just a gamble hoping to hit a temporary pullback that may never come. They could easily announce another product next week that sends the stock price up another 10% and hang any short positions out to dry.

In my opinion, Apple is one of the strongest and best-run companies in the US right now. I would not want to be betting against them over the next few years.

OP, I did a little more looking on Groupon last night. Their lockup period for many of the IPO investors will expire on May 2nd. Since the company has yet to post a profit and the share price has not been performing well, there's a good chance most of these investors will dump the stock once the lockup expires and you may see a decent drop in the share price. I watched the same thing happen with LinkedIN, they saw a 3-4% drop when their lockup ended. Since Groupon sold more shares in their IPO, and their fundamentals don't look as good as LinkedIN, I would expect an even larger drop than 3-4%. Maybe even close to 10%.
woodsie
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Posted: 4/5/2012 9:58:48 AM
Originally Posted By Soonerborn75:
Groupon is an eventual zero.

I like shorting newer chinese companies after a big climb. A whole lot of scams coming out of there with many shorting opportunities.

I am still looking to short apple. They have had a parabolic rise, only one way that ends. Waiting for them to fail a trend line then i will short. I may get forced out a few times but i want to be in on that blow off.


Don't watch the chart on that one. Apple's eventual pullback will be based on real events like a product flop or credible competitor in the smartphone/tablet arena that significantly reduces their margins and market share. Once it does happen, there will be a killing to be made in shorts and puts.

I'm long in Apple because I don't think either of those things are going to happen until 2013 at the earliest and more likely a few years after that. The market that Apple sells in is still growing at an incredible rate so even if they lose market share it is possible to continue sales and earnings growth on the simple fact that the pie is getting bigger and bigger.

My sign will be when a competitor comes out with a phone or tablet with the same kind of mass appeal as the iPhone/iPad. It needs to be a sea change event though as Apple is trading at only 17 times earnings and simply doesn't need massive double digit growth to justify their current price.

It's not like when Microsoft went parabolic in the late 90's on the pc boom and was trading as high as 35 times earnings.

Javak
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Posted: 4/5/2012 12:01:15 PM

Originally Posted By graysonp:

Does your brokerage charge margin interest on short sales? A lot of them do, since they have to borrow the stock for you to short it.


I did a check and see with Schwab, and they do have to borrow Groupon shares from outside, charge interest, and have a minimum order of $50,000.
Is It Schizoid Paranoia or Just Existential Blues?
woodsie
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Posted: 4/5/2012 1:22:02 PM
Originally Posted By Javak:

Originally Posted By graysonp:

Does your brokerage charge margin interest on short sales? A lot of them do, since they have to borrow the stock for you to short it.


I did a check and see with Schwab, and they do have to borrow Groupon shares from outside, charge interest, and have a minimum order of $50,000.


Have you considered Put Options instead?

That's another way to bet against a stock. The minimum for most brokers is a single contract.

They are "risky" in the sense that they can become worthless quickly but your exposure is limited to your initial investment and there is no interest costs. The premiums can be expensive though in % terms.

I've had a couple winners and a couple losers doing options while I was messing with them last year. I'm convinced it's not a good general strategy but if you have a stock you feel EXTREMELY bullish or bearish they are a good tool.
Soonerborn75
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Posted: 4/7/2012 1:24:52 AM
[Last Edit: 4/7/2012 1:27:11 AM by Soonerborn75]
I think being long AAPL is just as dangerous as being short. Anytime I see a parabolic rise like that and everyone is gushing about it and piling on I start looking for the door.

AAPL does have problems.

Jobs is gone. Any company with a loss like that is gonna change, and its not usually for the better.

How many people do you think actually pay full price for a iphone or ipad. Carriers heavily subsidize those products.

I started looking periodically at AAPL when they passed 300, it wasn't a good opportunity then for a short but its getting close now. I hope it continues to rise, faster, that way when it finally does blow off it will be an easy short. There is only one way a parabolic rise like this ends. I can think of no example that shows otherwise. I saw people piling into tech stocks, every analyst was buy, buy, buy, right until the bottom dropped out during the dot com bust. Everyone and their dog was gonna be millionaires a few years ago flipping houses because housing prices only go up right? I see the same thing with AAPL right now. I wouldn't be long or short in them at this moment.

I have no skin in this game, yet. I don't hate AAPL, nor do I like them. I like my tech toys tailored to the way I use them so I prefer linux and android over mac or ms. I am just calling this one the way I see it, maybe right, maybe wrong but you would be foolish to ignore those warning bells going off.
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Posted: 4/7/2012 8:29:11 AM
[Last Edit: 4/7/2012 8:36:15 AM by graysonp]
Originally Posted By Soonerborn75:
I think being long AAPL is just as dangerous as being short. Anytime I see a parabolic rise like that and everyone is gushing about it and piling on I start looking for the door.


Again, that is a very dangerous statement to make. There are plenty of stocks out there that grow and rise in stock price very quickly and never see a significant pullback, other than normal market fluctuations. If you don't see a fundamental reason why a stock will fall, assuming it will because it has risen quickly is not smart. It's no smarter than buying a stock that dropped 50% and assuming it's going to climb back up, without looking to see if the company is on the brink of bancrupcy. You're just guessing at that point.

As far as Apple's problems, I think you're nit picking trying to find justification for a short position. Apple knew Jobs was in poor health and had plenty of time to prepare for his departure from the company. They have plenty of products in the pipeline and their top executives have been there for a long time. It's not like they just revamped the entire structure of the company after Jobs died. Thinking that they're going to change, "and usually not for the better", when there is no indication that they will, is just gambling. You may as well go to Vegas and put your money on red.

Subsidized iPhones? That doesn't make any difference. That's how the phone industry works, and that's how their pricing models are setup. Apple still has net margins nearly twice the industry average and they haven't seen any indication of dropping due to competition. It doesn't matter if they're subsidized off an MSRP that noone ever pays. You have to look at their revenues and earnings, which are much stronger than any of their competitors.

As far as the comparison to housing bubbles and tech stocks, it's an excellent example of why Apple is fundamentally strong and should not be shorted. Tech stocks in the 90's were seeing P/E's in the hundreds and even thousands. They weren't profitable, had tiny revenues, and were being run-up in price without the growth to support it. Investors were ignoring the fact that they were strongly overvalued because they hoped the industry would boom. Apple is the exact opposite. They are undervalued by at least 10% using any normal means of valuation. Their P/E is extremely reasonable and falling, which shows that their earnings are growing faster than their share price. They have huge amounts of cash on hand, well established leadership and new products in development.

When I am screening for new stocks using mutliple factors to find undervalued companies, Apple continues to come up at the top of every screen, even at a price of $620-$630. If their earnings continue at their current pace, a price of $800 or so is still a great value. In my opinion, they're one of the strongest companies in the US, and will continue to be for the next 3-4 years at least.

You need to understand the difference between a bubble, and price increases that are supported by company fundamentals. Anyone who does would not logically compare Apple to any of the tech stocks of the 90's. Expecting to short Apple is just not supported by any sound investment theory other than speculation and gambling.
Soonerborn75
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Posted: 4/7/2012 2:48:04 PM
[Last Edit: 4/7/2012 2:59:40 PM by Soonerborn75]
It doesnt matter how much they prepped for losing Jobs, they still lost him. Either he was a visionary that made a huge impact on the company growth and direction and his loss will have the same impact OR he was nothing but a face and his departure won't mean anything. Cant have it both ways.

Subsidies do matter, because the Carriers can shift focus on moving whatever product gives them the greatest operating margin. They don't care if one is better than the other, they don't care what brand it is, they only care about the bottom line.

That said I honestly don't think that the above is gonna matter in the immediate future. Down the road sure. I don't care what the fundamentals of the company are, no way can they sustain a rise like this. HAS NEVER HAPPENED. They will correct, and the higher they go before they correct the larger the correction will be.




That will correct. It ALWAYS does. It has moved passed a normal correction and into most likely what will be an overcorrection. I am not saying that AAPL is a bad company, or it doesnt have sound fundamentals to support a 300, 400 maybe even 500 stock price. Right now it is WAY overbought. I hope they blow through 1000. When it does turn though, it will go below 400 possibly even down to 300. There maybe a few minor shakes before it happens but it will happen. If it does overcorrect it would make for a good buying opportunity but not for me, I don't like to hold tech stocks long term right now.


Late 08 to early Jan this year would have been a great time to be in AAPL. Now, can you honestly look at that and tell me you would be comfortable holding that stock? When things become irrational it doesn't really matter what the fundamentals are.
Soonerborn75
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Posted: 4/13/2012 1:25:54 PM
short AAPL at 617.
graysonp
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Posted: 4/13/2012 1:44:27 PM
[Last Edit: 4/13/2012 1:56:59 PM by graysonp]
Originally Posted By Soonerborn75:
short AAPL at 617.


I would recommend covering that pretty soon. I don't see it falling much farther. Earnings are due out in about another week and from what information is out there, it's going to be a great quarter. There's a good chance the stock starts climbing again at a steady clip.

If you had timed it perfectly and bought at the absolute peak, a short would have netted you about 5% over the last 4 days. But I don't see anything that's going to drive it much lower unless the earnings report is below expectations (not likely IMO).


ETA: I missed your earlier post, but I still disagree with you. By definition, a stock is overbought when it's price is not justified by it's fundamentals. There is absolutely nothing with Apple that supports the theory that it's overbought, therefore the chance of a correction (outside of normal price fluctuations) is pretty slim. It is nearly perfectly aligned with traditional pricing measures and with the market as a whole. Saying it's overbought doesn't make any sense and the theory that a correction is coming just doesn't have any evidence to support it. To assume that a sharp rise in price must be followed by a sharp drop without analyzing the fundamentals of a stock price is arrogant and dangerous, because it's not at all true.

If anything, Apple was significantly oversold back in mid-2011, and the correction is what we have seen over the last few months. In 2011, it's forward P/E was in the single digits at some points. Currently, it's forward P/E is still only 15. Sales growth for 2012 is expected to be over 60% and S&P still values the company about 20% higher than it's current price. I just don't see how you can look at that data and call a company overbought. When we start seeing Apple hit P/Es in the 40s and 50s, then maybe we can call it overbought and expect a correction.
Javak
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Posted: 4/13/2012 5:15:27 PM
Apple is still in Jobs' last product cycle. We will have to wait and see if his successor have the same vision, and more importantly, the same drive to that vision.
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Posted: 4/15/2012 10:47:04 AM
What about shorting RIMM. I really don't see them doing well in the future. I guess the only problem with that, is your are about a year late to the party. They have really tanked and no everybody knows they suck, so the stock price reflects it. They want to stay in the handset game, and I just don't see that working out for them. They have not innovated like apple, and andriod. Hell even microsoft has a decent phone operating system now.
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Posted: 4/15/2012 4:11:00 PM
Originally Posted By tel0004:
What about shorting RIMM. I really don't see them doing well in the future. I guess the only problem with that, is your are about a year late to the party. They have really tanked and no everybody knows they suck, so the stock price reflects it. They want to stay in the handset game, and I just don't see that working out for them. They have not innovated like apple, and andriod. Hell even microsoft has a decent phone operating system now.


Everything is a potential short.

For RIMM, I see it going sideways for a while. I think it is going to trade between about 12.60 and 13.40 for awhile. Until BB10 comes out, after that it depends on the markets reaction, if BB10 is a hit RIMM could be a buy.
graysonp
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Posted: 4/15/2012 4:38:24 PM
Originally Posted By tel0004:
What about shorting RIMM. I really don't see them doing well in the future. I guess the only problem with that, is your are about a year late to the party. They have really tanked and no everybody knows they suck, so the stock price reflects it. They want to stay in the handset game, and I just don't see that working out for them. They have not innovated like apple, and andriod. Hell even microsoft has a decent phone operating system now.


I don't think RIMM is a good short candidate, partly for the reasons you listed. I don't see them falling much further, and bankruptcy is unlikely. RIMM has a good supply of cash and could keep afloat for a long time without filing for bankruptcy. I see one of 2 things happening with RIMM.

1. They come out with a new, innovative product that restores faith in the brand and gives them some momentum to turn the company around.
2. The get bought out by another company (the most likely scenerio). RIMM is flush with a lot of cash and low debt, even though sales and market share are declining. Their patents and trademarks gives them a lot of potential value to other companies. I would not be surprised if Apple bought them out to gain access to their patents.

Either of those situations would not bode well for anyone with a short position. I think the best thing to do with RIMM is to sit and wait to see if the new CEO is going to be able to turn the company around.
Soonerborn75
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Posted: 4/16/2012 4:07:31 AM
I would be more inclined to go long rimm than short, if i were to invest in them.
BWood
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Posted: 4/16/2012 5:27:55 AM
can anyone explain the morals or ethics of betting on a company to fail and being rewarded for the betting?

I regularly invest in the markets...never have bought short sales....Personally I think it is nothing more than Vegas on Wall Street...and have followed simple investing advice....Invest in companies you BELEIVE in.

Personally I think short sellers are doing moreto destroy the economy and the act should be illegal. A number of countries have banned short selling...and the US is looking into it.

Can someone please seriously explain the benefits of short selling outside of simply collecting on a bet that someone did poorly?

I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.
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Posted: 4/16/2012 9:22:10 AM
[Last Edit: 4/16/2012 9:27:22 AM by graysonp]
Originally Posted By BWood:
can anyone explain the morals or ethics of betting on a company to fail and being rewarded for the betting?

I regularly invest in the markets...never have bought short sales....Personally I think it is nothing more than Vegas on Wall Street...and have followed simple investing advice....Invest in companies you BELEIVE in.

Personally I think short sellers are doing moreto destroy the economy and the act should be illegal. A number of countries have banned short selling...and the US is looking into it.

Can someone please seriously explain the benefits of short selling outside of simply collecting on a bet that someone did poorly?


Here's a better question: Why ban short selling? What makes it unethical to short a stock? It's a voluntary transaction between 2 parties. And what could short sellers possibly be doing to "destroy the economy"? If a stock is fundamentally weak, the price is going to fall anyways. Shorting the stock does nothing to change the value of the stock, it just gives you an opportunity to earn a return when the price does the inevitable.

The free market demands a mechanism to short stocks. Banning that is just another form of government intervention. You can ban short selling if you want, but investors will find another way to do the same thing. Look at put options, basically the same type of investment as a short.

Think about what you're doing when you short a stock: You are borrowing the shares from another lender who is completely willing to loan them to you, and then selling them. You have an obligation to repay those shares at a later date. What exactly is immoral with that? And what improvement will banning short sales add? Does the SEC really need to prevent investors from voluntarily loaning shares to other investors? There's no evidence or logic to support the idea that short selling is harmful to the economy. I would guess it has the opposite effect in reality: shorting most likely provides more liquidity and volume, which would drive prices closer to what they are fundamentally valued at when they are overbought.

For what it's worth, I agree with your strategy to invest in companies you believe in. I rarely short stocks because I think the better long term strategy is to buy good, quality companies and hold them for a long time. But I don't think we should ban investment vehicles simply because they don't fit into my strategy.
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Posted: 4/16/2012 12:35:23 PM
Originally Posted By BWood:
can anyone explain the morals or ethics of betting on a company to fail and being rewarded for the betting?

I regularly invest in the markets...never have bought short sales....Personally I think it is nothing more than Vegas on Wall Street...and have followed simple investing advice....Invest in companies you BELEIVE in.

Personally I think short sellers are doing moreto destroy the economy and the act should be illegal. A number of countries have banned short selling...and the US is looking into it.

Can someone please seriously explain the benefits of short selling outside of simply collecting on a bet that someone did poorly?



The market tends to ignore bad news until they absolutely have to take it into account. Shorts try to counteract the bulls by forcing bad news to the front. Without shorts longs would keep buying and driving up the price, eventually bad news would come to the forefront and the stock would fall, hard. Without shorts to stop the fall it would keep going down. Shorts do not destroy a good stock, they will bring problems forward, and they act as a balancing force to prevent prices from getting overvalued. They are a boogeyman that bad companies and bad governments point to and blame for all of their problems, rather than fixing the problems they have.


An example:

In October of 2000 Kynikos Associates (a short-biased hedge fund) said so-and-so company was a piece of crap, despite a price of $90 per share. Kynikos said the company was cooking its books, that they were overstating earnings. Everyone bashed them and said they were wrong, and it was a great company.

Fast forward a few months, more people are asking questions. During a conference call someone asks to see the company's balance sheet and gets told it will not be available until "later" the person says "You're the only financial institution that can't come up with balance sheet or cash flow statement after earnings," the CEO responds "Well, thank you very much, we appreciate that. Asshole,". The CEO's explanation for the asshole comment was "The specific fellow that I was not real happy with is a short-seller in the market. I don't think it is fair to our shareholders to give someone a platform like that they are using for some personal vested interest related to their stock position." Blaming the short sellers for his companies failures.

Fast forward a few more months, during the summer the stock continues to fall, more bad news comes out. The New York Times runs a headline "Something is rotten with the state of Enron". The SEC starts to investigate, analysts start to downgrade and finally Enron goes bankrupt, the stock drops to $1.

Short sellers did not destroy Enron, Enron did. Short sellers simply tried to get people to recognize the problems, but everyone ignored them because they are "evil".
Soonerborn75
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Posted: 4/16/2012 11:00:32 PM
Still short aapl, put stops down. Plan on going down to 550ish but likely hood is low. Lowering volume is not good for further downside which is why I put in some stops.

Asking the moral or ethical value of shorting a stock is the exact same as asking it of going long in a stock. In both cases you are doing the exact same thing, trying to predict stock price movement based on forward valuation. Everyone can apply upward pressure on a stock by buying it. If you couldn't short it then they only way to sell it is if you already own it, so which method provides true price discovery? One where everyone can participate or one where only some can participate.

Also short sellers are the only ones buying the stock your selling after an event causes a big drop in price. Believe it or not short sellers save you money when they cover, who else is buying a dropping stock?

Also as someone earlier mentioned short sellers have uncovered some big scams. Always a good idea to read and listen to short sellers even if you dont sell short yourself.
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Posted: 4/17/2012 9:05:02 AM
Originally Posted By Soonerborn75:
Still short aapl, put stops down. Plan on going down to 550ish but likely hood is low. Lowering volume is not good for further downside which is why I put in some stops.


I'll admit I was wrong about Apple. I really didn't expect to see a 9.5% drop in the share price so soon.

However, anyone who missed the boat on the first run up in price should definitely look at buying now. I'd set a trailing stop to buy once it climbs back another 2% or maybe $10 or so. Forward looking P/E is down to about 12.5 at the current price and earnings should be out in the next week or so. A lot of analysts are upgrading this from a Buy to a Strong Buy. In the sub-$600 range, the stock is obviously undervalued.
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Posted: 4/17/2012 2:54:33 PM
Originally Posted By Soonerborn75:
Still short aapl, put stops down. Plan on going down to 550ish but likely hood is low. Lowering volume is not good for further downside which is why I put in some stops.


Did your stops trigger today?

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