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The question I always have when I read these discussions is the effect the galactic sized black hole in the market from derivatives and similar securities.
From an individual who is not an investment professional observations are that amount of fake money greatly dwarfs all real currency in existence. Add in all of the debt both personal, business and government which is at all time highs.
These are all deflationary in nature. In the land of the broke, the man with a buck is king. In fact inflation and the much stressed inflationary scenarios often discussed here can be effected by raising interest rates which makes having cash, bonds etc more lucrative options.
I have kind of arrived at a belief that deflation is more likely than inflation, unless there is a global dump of the dollar. Which would need a viable competitor, which i don't see right now. Again just observations from someone who looks at the numbers and weighed things against each other. I suspect no one really knows what's going to happen.
This is really going to pound people retiring in the next 10 years or so. I am not in that group so I just an staying in the market dollar cost averaging when I can while having food, water, and the usual covered and ready to go.
I would love someone smarter than me to explain how I am wrong.
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A derivative contract for say a million dollar security isn't actually about the million. Two people might make a $40,000 bet that the security goes left or right, up or down, etc. The $40k is up for grabs, not the million. So the derivatives market looks like it represents more currency than exists. Not true.
There is much confusion between inflation and rising prices, and us financial people being sloppy with definitions doesn't help. Inflation is the increase in the supply of the currency. That isn't going down, and the Fed says it will keep going up. Since they love to print currency into oblivion, we should probably take them at their word on that one.
Prices can fall in the face of inflation; like with TVs and cell-phones (and everything else that moves too fast for .gov to hamstring). But, most prices rise as inflation outpaces population growth, no doubt about it.
An extreme drop in prices (not deflation) can precipitate hyper-inflation, but does it matter? If it happens, it wont last too long before they run the presses out full-tilt. Maybe only a few years. It doesn't change the long term investment strategy because a) it may or may not happen and b) if it does, it's too hard to time.