I've always considered myself a general prepper, not having one specific thing I'm prepping for, but more and more as of late I seem to be seeing a lot of new articles talking about how shitty the economy is.....with things like China (and in turn South America), Europe, and other places struggling.  With that said I'm sure I'm focusing in on the bad and skimming over the good..... so people that actually have a little more knowledge on the matter, is there good news for the economy?  If so please provide some links, I like to consider myself a "realist" so I wouldn't mind being proven wrong

Sorry, no positive spin I can throw out on a broad level, but on an individual level some positive things can be done; largely imo because people are starting to believe media reports more than cold hard arithmetic. They hear "recovery is here" enough times that it affects their behavior, and so turns into somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy, at least in the short term. Can it last long term - that's obviously the question.

Personally I believe a lot of it is cyclical. Not that it's necessarily 'inevitable' in a hard & fast sense, but predictable on a macro level. The best (and longest, and hardest to get thru) book that I've read on historical 80-130 year cycles is The Fourth Turning. Great book, but long, dry, slow, and darn near impossible to finish even for someone who loves to read. It was recommended to me by a friend who's an investment broker, and it was worth the read. According to their premise, we in America are at roughly the same place now that we were in the 1930's, the 1850's, and the 1760's. Those are broad generalities, and obviously no way to know for sure that the same cycles will continue to repeat.

Personal opinion, I think there are some good things that can be taken advantage of currently and in the near future. Home prices are up in most areas, so it could be a good time to cash out some equity, etc. Long-term, the public debt, govt spending, public (and some private) pension fund shortfalls, racial tensions and other social frictions all make me think that we're headed for some bad times to come.

But I always tend to think that.

I use the google news app on my phone which just randomly pulls in (although knowing google they probably tailor what I'm seeing based on past articles I've clicked on which could explain some of it) news articles for different themes..... US, technology, world, health, etc.  I'm just trying to determine if I'm being overly paranoid or if the daily bombardment of negative economy outlook is true, because of course most people around me don't want to open their eyes

I can't help you as I am waiting for full implosion but I am sure it wont just because.

It occurs to me that the earnings being reported this week and next are telling the tale. Revenues are down, profits are down, non-GAAP adjustments (ie fudges to make thinks look better than they really are) are up. While free money from the Fed can prop up the stock market, according to ZeroHedge, there has been 16 weeks of funds outflows with institutions being net sellers for 4 months now. Some of this is because some see a "top" in the market, and others need the money and are cashing in the most liquid assets, stocks.

I doubt there will be a catastrophic collapse before the election unless we have a major terrorist attack or the Ruskies buzz another one of our ships just a little too close. Fact is, we have not recovered from the 2008-2009 financial downturn. Eight years of a lackluster economy with jobs lost in high-paying jobs not quite being replaced by low-wage service jobs. Real incomes have not grown one iota. And, just out today, is according to the most recent "stress tests" of the 8 top banks, precisely NONE of them have a "credible response plan" to another financial crisis. In other words, they are insolvent right now and they don't care and aren't doing anything to fix the situation. The speculation is they think they don't need to because they'll just get another taxpayer bailout.

So, while you could argue that the administration will move heaven and earth to keep up the facade of recovery before the election, it may be too little, too late. I was reading about hundreds of oil tankers sitting in harbors around the world unable to offload their cargo or even refuel/resupply themselves. The largest coal company in the country went bankrupt today, putting over 8000 workers' jobs at risk. The energy industry as a whole is in DEEP trouble. Chesapeake energy evidently had to pledge most all of their oil and gas leases as collateral to get the banks who loan them money to continue to do so.  Like the old joke goes, "If I owe you $100 and I can't pay, I have a problem. If I owe you a billion dollars and I can't pay, YOU have a problem." So, as the energy sector disintegrates due to both Odumbo's green agenda and world oil glut keeping energy prices low, the banks who have huuuuuge loans to various energy companies are looking at massive defaults. That's why those stress tests were done, which they failed miserably.

good information Planemaker.... sadly not positive outlooks

Can't see anything good to report, other than we still smell better than the rest of the world.

We just suck less right now, so we have that going for us

"Where there is confusion, there is profit to be made." - George Hayduke, author of the series of Get Even! books.

Position yourself for the global economic reset.  You can emerge wealthy.

OK,  you asked for the positive and I'll give it.  For the record there's negative too but you asked for the positive spin.

The global economic machine is more healthy than you might think.  Goods and money flow more or less smoothly all over the planet. Sure there are a few rough spots but by in large it's working well.  Do we wish some of the treaties and deals favored American interests more? Sure.  But you just aren't going to hit every deal out of the park.  The American economy is a freaking powerhouse.  We absolutely dominant the planets economy and by a large margin.  The whole world is following our presidential election like it was their own because of how much we effect their own economy.  Find someone on a street here that knows which elections are going on in Europe right now.  I suspect it will take you a while.  Our Stock markets are in a 7 year rally.  For the most part we are at near all time market highs.  Was it a straight  climb to the top? Nope there were bumps some big ones too but the trend is up and more up.  It won't  last forever and there will be a correction at some point but that's just a part of how this all works.  Right now our hydrocarbon industry is getting pinched but that too will pass,  our oil iindustryis just not that easy to kill.  Gray skies WILL clear.  

In closing I'd just say that the global economic machine is fucking insanely huge and it's got massive amounts of money and momentum.  For as much as FBHO has tried even he hasn't caused real serious damage. Don't believe the doom and gloom prepper  blogs out there,  it's just not that easy to simplify.

Think past today,  think past this month,  this quartes earnings,  and try and observe from the big picture. It's not in any danger short of unannounced global war,  alien attack,  or comet strike.

Things are fine.  Stop reading crap like Zerohedge and focus on stuff you can control.  For me that means growing my business and developing geographic-independent sources of income.  Now I can prep with the best of them, but people who go on about how things are going to get so bad in this country I don't think know what they're talking about.  There are more opportunities than ever to make money and have a good life.  

Pessimism is easy, and for a few media hucksters it's good business.  But optimism and resiliency are what prevails.

And to that I would add, the low price of oil isnt a disaster. Its a strategy to screw certain countries like Russia. When asked about concerns regarding low oil prices one of the sheikhs running the oil lobby literally laughed out loud and said they'll keep oil low for a few more years.
As you said the financial machine is working well and isnt likely to go down any time soon. The only problem is that it keeps screwing more people to keep a few getting exponentially wealthier, so just be careful not to be crushed by it. Some people that arent as well educated believe that if the economy does well, THEY will do well as well. Not true. In fact, since 2008 the exact opposite is true. The economy grows but benefitting only a small percentage.
FerFAL

There is a direct effect of the price of oil (and by extension the price of gasoline that everyone pays) on most people's pocketbook. So, "cheap oil" has been good for <most> folks. Where that isn't true is oil & gas workers, energy companies, pipeline and drilling equipment manufacturers, and the banksters that play craps at the market table. Similarly, when the price of oil skyrockets, consumers feel it in their wallets almost immediately, and, it's something that most folks can't really eliminate from their budget (commuting to work, school, etc.).

As for the world economy, there is much going on that has nothing to do with finance and trade and a lot to do with geopolitical forces trying to engage each other on a non-traditional battlefield. There is a great deal of speculation that the low price of oil is being held there specifically to both punish Russia for its involvement in the mideast and, as a side benefit, to put the shale frackers in the US and Canada (oil sands) out of business by driving the selling price below what is economically feasible for those operations to continue. There is also a "clash of titans" going on relative to currency exchange rates where everybody seems to want to devalue their currency more than the other guy, essentially exporting inflation and "beggaring thy neighbor".

As for "income inequality", I think it is both normal and natural for that to occur in a regular capitalist country. Where I have issues is what we have now in the US which is more of a "crony capitalism" where the wealthy individuals and corporations get special favors from the government. Nowhere was this more on display than during, and subsequent to, the financial crisis. The banksters kept their jobs, their criminal enterprises continue to do "banking", and the taxpayers got stiffed with the bill that we may never be able to pay back. And, not a damn thing has been done to prevent another similar crisis.

We've also seen the disastrous consequences of the government intervening in markets they have no business being in - cash-for-clunkers, Obamacare, student loans, ZIRP - soon to be NIRP, and the like. Any time the .gov enters a market, there is a massive dislocation. Think of it as Bill Gates and Trump showing up at your door for nickel poker night - it won't end well for you.

I think having secondary sources of income, skills required for same, a side (or primary) business, and frugal lifestyle are all good advice, regardless of whether the economy is going great guns or tanking severely. It's no different than the financial advice that's so often given about diversification. It helps lessen the impact of individual failures. Where I used to work, there were a bunch of folks who had poured their life savings into the company stock plan. When they declared Chapter 11, those guys saw their life savings wiped out in a heartbeat and many had to work another 10-15 years just to be able to afford to retire.

Well stateside, the news will be more doom and gloom should the nation elect the R.  If the D gets the vote then the media and the incumbent will proclaim that we are making great strides and our economy is strong.


Of course reality is completely apart from that shit show.

I've never been to zerohedge or whatever it's called, just the generic google news app.... although as stated I think behind the scene google is pulling in news articles that it think I want to see, so if I was only opening optimistic ones it would be bringing more of those stories in, so I do believe I have contributed to the doom and gloom that keeps coming up.

Well, the S is NOT going to HTF tomorrow, but there is no sunshine and puppies on the horizon much either....

Opportunities- always.

A couple times I've traded some distressed oil related companies in the last two months, making a couple hundred each time on a few thousand risk.

It's hard to pull the trigger when the market is down like mad and your thinking "how much further will it go?" Get in at a good price, make a couple points if you can and get out.

A .40 stock moves .10 cents that's a 25% gain. Sometimes this happens daily. You don't have to, nor should you, "buy and hold forever." Be happy eating a little and move on. Sometimes you get stuck and that sucks, but keep in mind this is - if TS does NOT HTF investing. I will assume if your on a survival forum and been doing more than talking that your food, fuel and misc. supplies are fairly good to go.

Business wise, their is always opportunities. They are rarely going to find you, you have to find them. And be ready for that nasty four letter word--   work.

Get out of debt and stay out of debt. We are 8 years completely debt free, it's a great feeling and allows you to keep and maintain the initiative. Initiative being the ability to ACT rather than being forced to REACT.

Positive news? Here's the big newsflash - it's in the best interests of TPTB to keep everything limping along forever. Why? Cause they have and are getting more control, while we are slowly losing freedom. "They" do not "need" a big event to bring in draconian measures. They get each link in the chain a little at a time and we grumble about the new link for about five minutes then go back to consumption. Meanwhile the kids in publix edumacation centers are being taught and trained that socialism is the way to go, you can go to the chicks bathroom if your a dude and "feeling" like a girl that day, that gubmint is the ultimate authority, etc.

So look for more of the same- COLMOLLIN- more than TEOTWAWKI.

1930s-a decade prior to WWII, 1850s-a decade prior to the U.S. Civil War, 1760s-a decade prior to the American Revolution ...this gives me a sense of  foreboding to say the least

It's an extremely fascinating time in the financial world. We are on the precipice of a massive shift in economic thinking. The disastrous central banking actions of the last 100 years are coming to a screeching halt. The bills are coming due.

We will need leaders. Financial minds who will fight against the powers that be for the minds of the citizenry. It will be full-on communist, theft, and economic pillage, or a shift away from our economic slavery through theft of inflation.

That might not sound like good news, but in the long run, it is. Otherwise the little guy has less and less and less.

It's probably worse than you think it is.

The good news is you may still have time to position yourself to weather it better than most.

Looking at things long term.

The US will not go "bankrupt." We will just print more money to cover debts, social programs, interest, and other obligations. That has never turned out well, so why should it this time?

We do however, have like 50-100 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Social Security, Nation debt, every other Ponzi scheme, etc. Programs will be cut and means tested and the value of our currency will be tested if it is to remain the worlds RESERVE currency.

Neither major political party has any intention of reducing our budget deficit, national debt or reliance of the population on government social programs.

A growing number of the population not only depends on government assistance, but EXPECT it.

Half the population does not pay Federal Taxes, nor do they feel they should

There are more people now out of the work force than ever before....93 million I think.

Most people in this country have no idea how to grow their own food and they are in debt up to their eyeballs.

As a society, we do not expect private charity, but government charity. Political parties pander to this at every possible moment.

Our government involves our Military in wars or police actions all over the globe and claim to spread Democracy and freedom when it actively attempts to reduce it here for a majority of Americans.

You have a larger portion of the population in this country embrace Communism/Socialism/Self-hatred because that is what they are taught in school and see that message reinforced in our media and entertainment.

I really don't care what the "economy or stock market" are doing. A country with the above listed problems is in a downward spiral that will only improve due to a long term, horrible, event. Even then, it could go for the worse.

I constantly look at the country my children will inherit with dismay and plan for what I can.

I have some good financial news for you.

You don't live in Illinois.

I'm better off now than I was in 2008.  There now, do you feel better now?   I do.

I'm generally an optimist but I'm also a realist. I know for certain my salary has not kept pace with the .gov reported inflation much less the ACTUAL inflation. So, what is one to do? In my case, I've been working towards eliminating my debt (I'm within 3 years of paying off my mortgage, 4 of being completely debt free). I've also been buying gold and silver as my monthly bills allow. We've been cutting back on the going out to eat 5-7 times a week. We've also been doing things around the house that we know pay off like:

- Fixing leaky toilet tanks that drive up our water bill
- Upgrading the HVAC to high efficiency units (old one was 18 years old)
- "Upgrading" (or downgrading depending on how you look at it) to cars that get much better gas mileage and don't cost as much to maintain
- We're looking at getting rid of cable TV and just going all internet as well as less expensive cell phone service
- Thinking about solar but I don't think it will be practical for us because of the geometry and positioning of the house, trees, etc.

I am under the rather grandiose assumption that there won't be a calamitous event before the election. If Hitlery gets voted in, we're all in deep, deep kimchi so I don't worry so much about that. If Trump gets voted in, then at a minimum we'll see the accelerating deterioration take a breather. If he's able to actually wrest control from the entrenched DC mafia, then our nation's fortunes (and by extension our own) will take a decidedly positive turn. This is a decidedly important election, more so than most people realize as we are precariously close to the precipice.

I've got a while before "retirement" although I may change jobs fairly soon to make more money. So, I have a vested interest in not seeing the country go to heck in a handbasket. That being said, once I get my debts paid off, I'm buying more gold and silver.

So you are saying invest in major weapon system manufacturers?  Raytheon, General Dynamics, Lockheed-Martin, etc?

In 2008 I made over $74,000 a year.  Now I make a little over $20,000 a year.  Last year the state governement actually signed my family and I up for medicaid without our asking.  The people at the medicaid office were shocked when I told them I wanted off it.  They asked me why and I told them:  "I have self respect."

The good news is we are debt free and live in the south so we can live on that pathetic salary, we are doing better this year then last year, and if I can get the job I just applied for or the one I was encouraged to apply for I will make enough that my wife can quite working and go back to school, then we will be all right.

Two things -

One - to be clear, it's their premise, not my prediction. Frankly after reading the book though, I think their premise has merit.
Second - the book is from the 90's, and is really an expansion of a book by the same authors called Generations. Generations was researched & compiled in the late 80's and released in 1991. And now 25-30 years later, we still seem to be on the same path as they describe. It's not all doom & gloom in their view, but struggles likely to abound as the "next great generation" (which in their view begins roughly with those born starting in the early-to-mid 80's or so), as they start to age and assume more social power. My kids' generation, basically.

Personally, don't know. I don't believe their stuff is gospel or anything, but they do make a compelling case.

We are as well, but it's due to a massive life-shift economically speaking. In 2002, my company got bought out and in 2003 my job got the axe. Lot of bad things happened company-wise in the meantime as well. Our CEO ended up in prison, but that did nothing for my family. Fast forward, in early 2008 I was with another, smaller, company in the same industry, and got bought out again. Had no pension to lose this time, but took a ~$900 a month hit in the process.

In 2009, my wife and I managed to finagle the purchase of a small company (same industry still) and bought it. Been crazy amounts of work, frustration, learning, and worry, but we're in a much better shape now. The company we bought was originally started by a retired cop and his wife, and they weren't the most aggressive with marketing and growth but they did build a decent reputation in the area. We now have great employees (have had some very poor ones in the interim as well), have right at tripled the company's RMR (alarm monitoring accounts, testing & maintenance agreements, etc), and have bought our own building on the busiest stretch of road in the county.

Being sold twice can make a person really tired of pulling somebody else's wagon. And going thru what we did, makes us real conscious of treating our people well. Our lowest-paid person makes around 40% above the state average income, we pay 75% of our employees' (Blue Cross) health insurance premiums, paid holidays, vacation time, etc. One of our younger guys didn't have space at his rented house to rebuild a four-wheeler, so we're letting him work on it in our shop space. Things like that build huge loyalty that my employers never built, and in turn our people take care of our interests as well. The golden rule really does work; it's a shame that so much of corporate america is too short-term oriented to build on it.

What he said. I own an 8 unit apartment building and am an airline pilot. I would take working for myself any day over working for someone else. Corporate attitudes towards employees these days are becoming medieval.

As for your first question. We're not going to have the mad max scenario that many dream about on this board. What we are going to have is a long slow slide in living standards. This country is trending towards South America. Where we have a tiny super rich. Small middle class to run the place and a massive ignorant subsidized poor. So I would say find a way to work for yourself, learn to fix things around the house, don't go into crushing amounts of debt and learn about personal finance.

Also my crystal ball says we're going into another economic slump after the election. It's happened with every outgoing president for the last 20 ish years. All I can say is plan for it.

I wrote it all out. It's as positive as it's going to get

http://209.251.48.101/forums/t_1_5/1862870_.html&page=1

There is a two year supply of wheat sitting in storage, and wheat harvest is just around the corner.  From a USA food supply perspective we are better stocked than anyone in the world.  Perhaps not what your looking for but the bread lines will be there.

The modern bread lines form up the "first of da munth" at your local Walmart. Via EBT, SNAP, whatever the hell that card with the Peach is on it here in GA.

People are getting USED to this and while that can be good (adaption) it also can be BAD.

It's bad in that dumbasses don't seem to have learned anything from the last go around- house "flipping", resurgence of the "my house will always go up in value" non sense, return of the "all you need is a pulse" loans, etc.   Savers and people responsible with money are being penalized for not blowing money, perhaps further so in the future (negative interest rates).

Will there be riots, etc? Aren't we already seeing them here and there?  ,

EXACTLY!

The algorithms that select articles for you to read are highly influenced by your past behavior.  Read about backpacking? More backpacking articles! Reading about economic collapse? More economic collapse for you!  Of course, this isn't about the articles per se, it's the advertisements alongside and interspersed with the articles.  And those advertisements, of course, are also shown to you with the hope you'll click on them so they are also highly based on your past behavior.  

Go do a Google search for "reverse mortgages".  Click a few of the links on the results page. Boom! In the next few hours of generic web browsing, you will see a huge increase in generic banner ads for reverse mortgages. And these are all interconnected. Last week I was in REI looking at a Camelbak backpack and pulled up the Amazon app on my phone to read the reviews.  All week long I've been getting Camelbak ads shown to me from different websites.

The news aggregating apps are powered by the exact same algorithms as the advertisement networks and powered by the same data. So if you wallow in the negative, you'll continue to wallow in the negative.

This is one thing that was better about perusing the newspaper. Everyone reading say the Seattle Times would get the same Seattle Times and have a certain shared level-set. And you might stumble along an article that challenged your world-view and made you think a little differently.  Now you visit the website and get shown a subset of articles slanted toward whatever world-view is more likely to get you to read the articles so you'll see the ads. You are less likely to stumble into anything challenging and less likely to need to think, and far more likely to nod along and agree with everything you see.

The way I see it, every country is having economic problems right now probably as a result of the 2008 crash. Printing money with all these QEs didn't fix the underlying problems, but as long as the US maintains our status as the #1 military power we should be fine. In the end it's about controlling resources and military power would let us do that if we need to. Does anyone doubt we could take all the oil fields in the ME if we wanted them? That makes our money worth more than others. If we ever lose that status look out below.

I doubt it would be that easy. We wouldn't be facing just ME armies, but likely the Russians and possibly the Chinese if we tried to take control of all of the oil. We do have the largest, most powerful and experienced military on the planet and ,one on one, we can take any of the big boys in a conventional contest but it would be tough to take them all at once.

Why bother? Open up the oil we have available here and Alaska if we want the oil.



Easy enough to start more proxy wars to keep the ME from peak production.



 

The good news for us is that neither Russia, nor China can project and great amount of force more then 100 miles or so from their borders.  They are severely limited logistically be their transport abilities.

Russia was able to get some armor and artillery and a small number of ground troops along with two squadrons of jets to Syria.  They started pulling them back after less then a year, not because they had stabilized the Asad regime, but because they were having trouble supplying them.  Russia is also having supply trouble in Ukraine and they are share a land border.

China is in slightly better shape, but still does not have the resources or experience the US has to not only move large numbers of troops and equipment, but also to keep them supplied with beans, bandaids and bullets for the length of time they are deployed.

For me it's been extra nerve racking because I've sold my house in the city and am finally looking to take the leap into homesteading..... closing is set to happen mid June but until I actually have the check in hand I'm going to be worried the deal will somehow fall through.  I realize some massive economic event is extremely unlikely to happen that would cause the deal to fall through.... either way I'm trying not to read too much on the economy ha

All true, no one has the ability to move troops and equipment like we do. The other scenario might be that if we were to try and take over the ME then China and Russia might see it as an excuse to stir up trouble in their respective necks of the woods. Chinese expansion into Taiwan or Russia moving more openly against Ukraine. All of this would force us to dial back our invasion to counter Russian and China. Even if everyone else stayed out of it we still wouldn't have an "easy" time taking over the ME oil fields.

Anyway, it's all hypothetical since it ain't going to happen. As was posted above, we just turn on the tap over here and we have all the oil we need.

It's normal to sweat things like this because all sorts of things can sour a deal. Been thru it more times I can ever hope to remember... Thankfully...

This said, always be careful not to count your chickens until you eat them