User Panel
Posted: 1/8/2015 3:06:39 PM EDT
When considering a sudden issue/problem, do you...
Immediately think about the best consequence/outcome FIRST... Or do you immediately think about the WORST consequence/outcome FIRST? As the first step in developing a SOLUTION... |
|
It's claimed that the human brain can handle seven discrete thoughts at any given time.
Best case. Worst case. Does it really matter? What should I eat next.? Will the Cowboys beat the Packers on Sunday? Beans, or no beans. Was he really blind the entire time? Chris |
|
"Does it really matter?"
I think it does in time sensitive circumstances... |
|
Well when considering the issue I would always think of the best scenario because you've already been hit with the bad news, the issue it's self of course.
|
|
Quoted:
When considering a sudden issue/problem, do you... Immediately think about the best consequence/outcome FIRST... Or do you immediately think about the WORST consequence/outcome FIRST? As the first step in developing a SOLUTION... View Quote As a lifelong engineer, I typically use the Engineering Problem Solving Method. (Unlike most schools these days that teach "The Scientific Method" which was never intended to actually "solve a problem" but rather reveal knowledge. It is therefore no small wonder that kids come out of school unable to solve the simplest of problems.) Being a "practicalist", I tend to try to identify the best outcome first, then have backup plans for that not happening. I actually like the military mission planning acronym PACE - Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency. Pretty well crystalizes what should be part of your plan/solution. |
|
Usually what could go wrong first. Then what could go less wrong, eventually reaching the best case.
|
|
This article may or not be relevant to this topic, depending on your POV...
Saw it here: GD "U.S. millennials post ‘abysmal’ scores in tech skills test, lag behind foreign peers" US Millenials -whatever they are... Quote: "The goal was to figure out how prepared people are to work in a complex, modern society. "And U.S. millennials performed horribly. "That might even be an understatement, given the extent of the American shortcomings. No matter how you sliced the data – by class, by race, by education – young Americans were laggards compared to their international peers. In every subject, U.S. millennials ranked at the bottom or very close to it, according to a new study by testing company ETS." Maybe why so many [here] are so reluctant to embrace outside the box expedient solutions, often finding them 'unconventional and scary'... As well as rejecting other creative thinking ideas. |
|
I generally think about the worst consequence/outcome first. That way I know what to expect.
|
|
My first step in problem solving generally starts with consequences of inaction. Once you have an understanding of what happens if you don't do anything the pro's and cons of doing any action generally appear rapidly.
|
|
I come up with the best solution I can,
Then I try to shoot holes in my idea. If it holds water I invite others to criticize it. If it holds up to that, I implement it. |
|
You'll have to forgive me putting this into medical terminology but it is pretty much how I deal with most things.
If the problem is a diagnostic one. I.e. I don't know the cause, but would like to discover it so that I may more specifically address it. Depending on how familiar I am with this issue at hand, it would be by one of these three methods: pattern recognition: I have seen this before, I am pretty sure what it is. I proceed to address the issue. forward thinking: I have a couple of things that I think it could be. I test each of those until I find the cause. backward thinking: I have no clue what is going on. I create as close to a comprehensive list of what could cause the problem, then I go down the list trying to prove it isn't that thing. Once I have eliminated all but one thing then that is what is causing it. Once I have a working diagnosis, I try to fix the problem. I usually come up with a handful of solutions that range from most invasive/intensive/aggressive to most conservative. Then I pick the solution that probably matches closest the severity of this problem at hand. If solutions don't seem to work I go back and reassess to see if I got the cause wrong. I don't really think about things in terms of best case and worst case, honestly. I usually think in terms of probability. Exception to that is if one of the possible causes is potentially fatal or disabling then it may go to the top of the list of things to check out because even if it is not very likely, missing it or delaying diagnosing it could be really bad. Sorry if this isn't exactly what you are looking for, but that is basically how I look at things. |
|
I work corrections.
Worst case always gets considered first. In solving problem I have many more assets available quickly for solving things that are not worst case so I start feeding those in and see what happens. And while feeding that stuff in and watching outcomes I am getting the bigger hammers headed my way. I should admit that the first thing I do is decide if it even matters. Some stuff does not matter a bit but it can cause problems so it is something to watch. Corrections is about watching, so nothing changed other than making sure the potential issue is watched. Might start locating medical, but not calling em my way since there is nothing to do. Might see who is around for dressing out and what not, but not going to initiate that since it is not warranted yet. If it matters I start seeing how much it matters. I am no longer even allowed to solve issues at family functions and other stuff when out and about in public. Messing with corrections has changed how I view things and since I do start off with worst case scenerio and then back off to the point it can be solved with minimum amount of force needed it causes issues for relatives and what not. Cousins want to argue and "play fight," I let em. I also find such things funny, skewed sense of humor is me. Now some of this comes from learning some of the early signs. Something seeming a little off can often be easily fixed. If not fixed, dude might take it to the point of seriously hurting himself trying to take his life. Same dude, sort of same issue since it built upon the foundation that was layed earlier, but different final answers. Catching things early means little effort is needed. Means a whole lot less paperwork. One of my biggest problems is issues from shift to shift and not being told about it. |
|
It depends on what you are doing.
If its a specific "Task" then its best case then identify failure modes. If its a "Theory" then preconceived goals is a failure before you get started. It will always bias your thinking as much as a Global Warming progressive liberal guy's end result is government control. There's a natural order starting with identifying the problem ending with impact over when. It's "if we do this then" not "let's just do this". Basically you can't know what the end goal is unless you understand the scope and mitigating factors. Once you know that, then it becomes "Task" specific. I use Global Warming because of all modern topics, its the most bogus in critical thinking. It's statistical information with a political solution sold as science. It may take science to get the statistical information but that's where it ends as the conclusions are not based on any science at all because it includes no end result. The data is so bias that it does not include other contributing factors and the solutions not quantifiable. Its like setting up solar stills without knowing how much they will produce and how much water you need. It's downright childish thinking, "Anything will help, Be damned the cost or the impact." Its like trying to dig a 100' water well when you'll be dead before you find water because your method is too slow or jumping in a river when you can't swim because its too fast. What it is, is a result embroiled in taught critical thinking that favors one result, political control, not science. Something as simple as identify the problem, quantify the problem, and identify and quantify possible solutions are lost. Nobody is asking "we do this, how much will it help?" If we ran business like academia and the government runs 'Global Warming" we'd all be bankrupt. If we did survival, might as well toss a coin on whether you survive. Its the same with survival. You must identify and quantify the problem, explore the solutions and quantify them, then the decision path with no expectation of worse or best because it is what it is. Though its natural to not help it, we can't let emotion invade our decision paths. Morals are a different topic. Tj |
|
BTW, It would blow your mind how much this exact topic comes up in business and how even what is the "Worst" changes depending on who you talk to. One man's "worst" is the other mans "Best". I almost have to hold a straight face as depending on expectations as I advise "it is what it is" and you can't solve it until its quantified.
|
|
Quoted:
When considering a sudden issue/problem, do you... Immediately think about the best consequence/outcome FIRST... Or do you immediately think about the WORST consequence/outcome FIRST? As the first step in developing a SOLUTION... View Quote http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1121123__ARCHIVED_THREAD____i_would_like_to_RANT_NOW____about_DUCT_TAPE.html ar-jedi |
|
Quoted:
I want to be TJ when I grow up. View Quote You could do far worse.... For me problem solving usually involves some sort of repair. The three elements are 1. By the book repair. 2. Economical repair 3.) Expedient repair. I'll do stuff on the side of the road at 3 AM that I'd never even try in the shop the next day. Take note that in the long run #1 and #2 are usually the same. Long term planning is a different process altogether. Ops |
|
Quoted:
Plan for the worst, hope for the best. View Quote this. I always start with the worst and how to mitigate that risk, and then contemplate what I think is the most likely and use the worst case mitigation to temper the most likely case plan. If it comes out best case, thats just gravy. |
|
I'm not sure if this is what you're asking or not, but this is how I approach problems.
I identify the problem, and then make a list of possible ways to mitigate it. Identify the actions most likely to give me success. Identify the actions which are most cost effective / efficient. Based on how important the project is, make a decision based on balancing efficiency vs anticipated results. For me, there really isn't a "best" or "worst", there just... "is". I hope what I wrote makes sense. I've never been a stellar communicator. |
|
Oh, I'm definitely a MiniMax kinda guy.
I want to Minimize my Maximum regret. |
|
I start by thinking of the worst that can happen. Then identify steps that eliminate that potential as much as possible. Then start thinking of ways to improve the likelyhood of the best possible outcome.
|
|
Seeing how some of the topics here have gone a few times...
I think being able to COMPREHEND ---during LISTENING and READING, goes a long way... Toward problem solving -in all respects. It may have been in a thread here a while back, pointing out how as we grow older, our ability to recall what we've just been told fails, in general, almost like eyesight. The SAME concept applies to COMPREHENSION. Folks are so used to being 'entertained' from ear buds listing to nonsense, to absorption of the flat-screen, not to mention various other 'addictions', and lose this ability. It's surprising to see how folks are simply unable to comprehend simple things. You can tell someone something, wait a couple minutes and politely sort of ask about what you just said, and many folks have no idea, as they have talked incessantly, and only care abt their preconceived notions/ideas. Folks as they grow older and lose associated skills, are likely to have a greater risk of failing to survive [life, OR SHTF] situations. I have a friend who drinks every evening, and his health is starting to fail, as expected. He's UNABLE/UNWILLING? to comprehend or even entertain, simple things he could do to help himself 'survive'. |
|
Quoted:
Seeing how some of the topics here have gone a few times... I think being able to COMPREHEND ---during LISTENING and READING, goes a long way... Toward problem solving -in all respects. It may have been in a thread here a while back, pointing out how as we grow older, our ability to recall what we've just been told fails, in general, almost like eyesight. The SAME concept applies to COMPREHENSION. Folks are so used to being 'entertained' from ear buds listing to nonsense, to absorption of the flat-screen, not to mention various other 'addictions', and lose this ability. It's surprising to see how folks are simply unable to comprehend simple things. You can tell someone something, wait a couple minutes and politely sort of ask about what you just said, and many folks have no idea, as they have talked incessantly, and only care abt their preconceived notions/ideas. Folks as they grow older and lose associated skills, are likely to have a greater risk of failing to survive [life, OR SHTF] situations. I have a friend who drinks every evening, and his health is starting to fail, as expected. He's UNABLE/UNWILLING? to comprehend or even entertain, simple things he could do to help himself 'survive'. View Quote I like to say that we live in a society right now where access to information is nearly limitless. The problem is that not all of that information is good or correct. I takes time and study to turn that information into knowledge. But then just because you know something doesn't mean you practice is. The practice of that thing can turn that knowledge into wisdom. Ya feel me? Information ----> Knowledge ------> Wisdom. Example: People KNOW that cigarettes are bad for them, but they don't act on that knowledge. In the case of your friend, he knows it, he just lacks the wisdom to do something about it. |
|
|
Well... My SO got lost on a trip 2 nights ago and her solution...
Was to get mad! [At me] |
|
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.