After reading numerous posts here I'm curious what you good folks think the EVENT PROBABILITY is for the following happening in the near future (ie, in the next 10 years):

(1) RACE RIOTS (many cities involved simultaneously)

(2) EMP ATTACK  

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALS"

(4) GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED

Rate each type of EVENT PROBABILITY on a scale of 0-10 where zero means you think it will never happen, ten means you think it is an absolute certainty and a five means you don't know = maybe yes, maybe no.

1. Any riot is massive if you're in the middle of it.  Moreso if you you are the 'x' in "Kill 'x'!"  That being said, I'd give it a 0.1 where I live and work and perhaps a 3.5 in densely populated urban areas like NYC or LA.  Much of that would be dependent upon a trigger event like Rodney King and/or entitlement bribes ceasing.

2. I am too ignorant of the technology to accurately respond to this.  If I had to guess and "race riots in LA" was a 3.5, I'd say perhaps a 1.

3.  0. It's just silly.  If "they" were going to do that, they'd just say your house was a meth lab and lock you up in a regular prison.  When they use force, they lose their greatest tool - the lie that they're "the good guys".  Better to make you look like a socially-identified scumbag, at which point no one cares what happens to you.

4.  I'd give it a 2.  Confiscation leads to resistance, same reason as I don't buy the forced relocation crap.  They may illegalize an entire class of firearms ("for the children" or some such shit) and then require turn-ins.  If you don't, they'll ignore you until you show up at the range, at which point the guy running the place (or the Fudd next to you) will happily do their civic duty and call the cops.  If you never go anywhere but do something else illegal, they'll find the gun and use it to tack on more jail time.

5. I'd actually go with a solid 6.  I'm talking a la Argentina, not just massive taxation or further poor policy-making lowering our buying abilities.  Those last two get 8-9s from me.

If not these kinds of things, I'm curious what you preppers are prepping for?

Witch one would go best with the most tacticool outfit???

or maybe most dont live in a retarded fantasy world



eta





the overuse of MASSIVE is cute though





 

Quoted:
1. Any riot is massive if you're in the middle of it.  Moreso if you you are the 'x' in "Kill 'x'!"  That being said, I'd give it a 0.1 where I live and work and perhaps a 3.5 in densely populated urban areas like NYC or LA.  Much of that would be dependent upon a trigger event like Rodney King and/or entitlement bribes ceasing.

2. I am too ignorant of the technology to accurately respond to this.  If I had to guess and "race riots in LA" was a 3.5, I'd say perhaps a 1.

3.  0. It's just silly.  If "they" were going to do that, they'd just say your house was a meth lab and lock you up in a regular prison.  When they use force, they lose their greatest tool - the lie that they're "the good guys".  Better to make you look like a socially-identified scumbag, at which point no one cares what happens to you.

4.  I'd give it a 2.  Confiscation leads to resistance, same reason as I don't buy the forced relocation crap.  They may illegalize an entire class of firearms ("for the children" or some such shit) and then require turn-ins.  If you don't, they'll ignore you until you show up at the range, at which point the guy running the place (or the Fudd next to you) will happily do their civic duty and call the cops.  If you never go anywhere but do something else illegal, they'll find the gun and use it to tack on more jail time.

5. I'd actually go with a solid 6.  I'm talking a la Argentina, not just massive taxation or further poor policy-making lowering our buying abilities.  Those last two get 8-9s from me.

Are those in percent or "out of 10"? Whoops, RIF.

And about .00001 for the first 4, and 10 for the last - it's already happening.

And "Doomsday Prepers" called - they want to interview you.

1, 3 and 4 are firmly rooted in the tinfoil hat category. Scenario #2 is remote but plausable. Scenario number 5 is a real possibility.



To even seriously discuss scenarios 1, 3 and 4 is a strong indication you really need to get out more.

Were you going to make it a poll?

(1) MASSIVE "KILL WHITEY" RACE RIOTS
I would say chance of 1. The racial break down is roughly 65% white, Latino 16%, Black 13%, Asian 5. Most racial riots will be on a small scale.

(2) MASSIVE EMP ATTACK
I would say chance of 1. So far there has been no confirmed EMP attack yet, its a neat idea but until we see this happen even on a small scale i wouldn't worry about all of society getting whipped out by this for of attack.

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALISTS"
I would say chance of 1. This isnt 1940 nazi german where the government can secretly make neighborhoods of jews or other undesirable people disappear. internet, tv, radio, cell phones, transportation and much more make information spread quickly, plus firearm ownership would reduce this as the police or law doing it wouldnt risk their lives, in german the SS knew the people they were rounding up wouldn't resist, if they knew 1 out of every 10 ppl they were rounding up had a gun they might of been less willing.

(4) MASSIVE GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV
I would say chance of 3. Could happen but but i think they know better than to out right confiscate them, it will basically start a civil war. If the gov has half a brain they will take away our gun rights slowly...like they have been doing over the last 100 years.

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED
I would say chance of 10. This is actually happening, not on a scale of hyperinflation yet, atleast not in the US. This also doesnt require a evil group for this to happen. For example, a city or state runs up massive debt to pay for public programs or other needs. Their was no ill intention, actually the opposite, they had good intentions, they wanted to improve society, feed the hungry, give to the poor, create jobs, but their lack of knowledge and inability to say no to government spending causes massive debt and they need to be bailed out by the federal gov who has to print money as they are in debt themselves.


So the real question should be...."What happens when the dollar collapses?"
Because of hyperinflation and a collapse of the economy you often see riots, increased government controls and restrictions and hostility from foreign nations.

I think some natural disaster that impacts the power grid is much more likely to cause bigger problems than any of the things listed in the OP.





Speed


 

Nothing is going to happen....that is all.

I'm not a prepper or a survivalist (just a Hist/PolySci guy) but here's my take on the questions based on a history based extension of current events.

EMP Attack = 8:  Iran has already practiced launching an EMP Nuke attack on the USA from a ship off shore.  All that awaits is completion of their first nuke, which will be soon unless prevented by USA/Israel military intervention. (NOTE: An EMP expert on the Military Channel a few days ago said he considered the probabibility of an EMP attack to be an 8 out of 10.)

DOLLAR DEVALUED = 8.  

Race Riots = 5.    

Gun Confiscation = 10.  

FEMA = 5.

Hopefully none will happen, but they all could.

I say # 5 then you can escalate the violence and killing from there, They can accomlish their
population reduction plan and expend minimum effort, for sure if they get some of those armed drones
overhead.

@Forest

My asking you to rate the probility factor between zero and ten was sort of a trick.  Nothing listed is a zero in reality.  All of them have at least some chance of happening sometime in the future.  A "ZERO" is something that can never happen = a Zombie invasion or a massive Vampire attack.  LOL!

OP forgot to include MASSIVE ALIEN INVASION on the list, which I would put as equally likely as some of the listed scenarios.

In all seriousness, everything in the history of human civilization is cyclical.  If you want to know what the future looks like, look to the past.  Prepare so that you are ready when some idiot or idiots come along and do the same thing all over again.  It can't be prevented.

Hell, an asteroid or comet could be headed our way right now (that is probability you CAN actually calculate...you could say there IS one heading toward us RIGHT NOW, it's happened over and over again throughout the planet's history).  Who is going to survive that?  My guess is the elite ruling class that have access to hardened facilities with long-term survival protocols in place.  Everyone else is screwed.  Those are the people that rebuild.  I wonder what that society looks like 20, 40, 60 years after the event...

The difference is that somehow, some way, we come out of it on the other side, and we (humans) have been a little better off every time.  That obviously doesn't guarantee the survival or prosperity of you, your family, your community, country, and so on, but as a species we continue to keep on keepin' on.

How about any of 1-4 happen in 2013, and I'll mail you $100.

If none happen, you mail me $100.

Dollar has been devaluing for years now, so that point is moot.

I gotta go with this...

1 - 0%
2 - 0%
3 - 0%
4 - 0%
5 - 100%. but the market will do it rather than an official government action, unless you count Quantitative Easing which is exactly what that was.

First of all, I mostly agree with the 1st response... at least in the same ball-park except the last one where I'm confident it's already in the works...

2nd of all, many of gears our preps for more likely suvival events like debilitating injury, job loss, house-fire, natural disaster etc. While I do think there is a remote possibility of something major going down, I don't think it's likely. I do, however, think it's very likely that at some point in my life I will be affected by one of the above "more likely events" in one way or another. I prepare for the most likely event first, and the least-likely last. In my area, the only one on the OP's list that I even consider as likely is the last one (devaluation of our currency and poor policy-making by the buffoons in washington).

(1) MASSIVE "KILL WHITEY" RACE RIOTS (many cities involved simultaneously) - 0, LOL.

(2) MASSIVE EMP ATTACK  - 0, retaliation would be instant, massive EMP implies power with both H-bomb and satellite capability (China, Russia.)

(3) MANDATORY INCARCERATION IN FEMA RELOCATION/RE-EDUCATION CAMPS FOR "NONCONFORMING INDIVIDUALISTS"  - 1

(4) MASSIVE GUN CONFISCATION BY .GOV - 2

(5) DOLLAR DEVALUED - 10 already happening and will continue until deficit is zero (odds = 1) or USD banking system collapses (odds = 9).

This... and....

SigOwner says:...many of [us] gear our preps for more likely suvival events like debilitating injury, job loss, house-fire, natural disaster etc. While I do think there is a remote possibility of something major going down, I don't think it's likely. I do, however, think it's very likely that at some point in my life I will be affected by one of the above "more likely events" in one way or another. I prepare for the most likely event first, and the least-likely last. In my area, the only one on the OP's list that I even consider as likely is the last one (devaluation of our currency and poor policy-making by the buffoons in washington).[/quote]
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Thank you! This is exactly what I was looking for, namely a list of events serious preppers are really prepping for. Any more real-world examples out there?

NOTE: The extreme examples I mentioned in the initial post were calculated to draw out real-world answers.  As for me the only type of events I am in any way prepared for are hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, etc.  In other words, natural disasters that have a history of frequently occuring here on the TX Gulf Coast.

Did it ever occur to you to simply ask the question you actually wanted answered?

as soon as us Preppers started getting vocal about what we do, we get these kinds of questions.




How about this:

Prepping away enough food,water and supplies so if you become unemployed or underemployed you can live out of your pantry instead of a grocery store.

Prepping away enough valuables or commodities that you can sell and create income them off in the case of a financial hardship.  

Prepping away enough medical supplies so when you jack yourself up, 45 minutes from help, you can help yourself.


Understand the clowns on DoomsDay Preppers are just that clowns. "I am worried about the ice sheet melting"  WTF?!?


Being prepared is a lifestyle not a fad or reality show.

I'm guessing that none of those scenarios will come to pass.  Oh, we might have a riot, but they will be isolated.  None of the other things merit much discussion.

Blaa..Edit to smite drunken doof-ery

Ice storms, prolonged utility outages, job loss, medical emergencies, fire, financial hardship, violent criminals...

EMPs, FEMA camps, rogue comets, Mayan apocalypse, and zombies aren't even on the radar. Of course, I'm a realist-I don't live in fantasy world

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

Simple.  I prep so my family will not have to depend on a government agency for food, water, shelter or protection. Period. Whatever happens.

most of us dont prep for anything on your list, except maybee inflation and there are a few who are prepped for EMP's, but they are nutz.

Did you notice his slick way reverse phsychologizing us?

Why was this not a poll? If you really want to know what we think then that's the way to do it.

My entries:

1) 20%
2) <1%
3) <1%
4) 5%
5) 90%

I am an optimist. I still think it's remotely possible that we will avert fiscal disaster (not talking about the "fiscal cliff" BS either, talking about the longer term debt issue). I think it's entirely possible that we get the right leader at the right time with the right message that can get it done.

I just think it's far more likely that we won't, and our society will follow Rome's example instead.

+1

The answer to 5 seems to be overwhelmingly positive that it is already happening.  As it gets worse and those EBT cards stop working #1 becomes a strong possibility.  Whether that is "race" driven in the terms of one race against another is a mute point.
If mob mentality breaks out, you don't want to be in the middle of it, regardless of you race.  In a true long term SHTF scenario, Yes the races will naturally migrate to each other.   Many of you may be overlooking the possibility of a natural EMP attack on our electrical grid.
This planet has seen MANY such events that could take down our grid.  There was a strong EMP that hit the U.S. in 1859 and took out the telegraph system.    The sun is currently in a High solar activity period.  I have no idea of the possibility, only that history has a way of repeating itself.

Yep, that makes good sense!

What got me interested in this topic in the first place was seeing so many posts regarding BOV's, BOB's, home defense, retreat cabins, etc, etc.  Those posts caused me to assume that many were prepping for EOTW type scenarios, and I was wondering which ones people were most concerned about.  Still wondering.  I mean who needs a BOV, BOB, or retreat cabin for minor short-term situationms?

for some, they are fun to talk about -- but in all probability not very realistic.  like all of the stuff in your OP.  


real world stuff that happens.  e.g.
http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_10_17/661411_Sandy____12_days_without_power__what_worked__what_didn_t____.html&page=1

ar-jedi

Ono a scale of 1 to 10:

1.  The answer to this is dependent on how far #5 goes.  In the event of a sudden economic collapse, as soon as the .gov checks and EBT cards go, I'd giveit an 8.  Under normal conditions, a 2.

2.  About a 3.  There are groups out there that would commit suicide to accomplish that.

3.. It won't be called "re-education camps." it will be called "emergency relocation camps" or "disaster shelter camps."   Maybe a 2, at present.  Ask me again in 4 years.

4.  Direct confiscation, near zero.  Banning AWs like California?  9.

5. 10.  It is not a possibility, it is a fact and ongoing as we speak.

Having said all that, 99% of my preps are for the short to mid term and localized events like winter storms, loss of grid power,  unemployment, house fire, serious auto accident, loss of the house itself for whatever reason, etc.  Living here in rural America, my odds of having to bug out are minimal.  But, I do have bugout plans in place and the means to accomplish same.  I'm not clairvoyant, and the thing that kills you is the thing that yo didn't see coming.  Having LTS on food and water were an easy add-on to my short to mid term preps.

OP, have yo made up a threat matrix?  You may be redirected in your prepping if you do..

Ops

wow, I had to check twice to be sure this wasnt GD...

Preppers calling fellow preppers, nutz, crazy, etc..who are any of you to decide who's worried about what.?

This kind of rudeness shouldnt fly in this forum.
Preppers, regardless of the root beleif as to why the feel the need to be prepared are all
of the same brother/sisterhood and should be respected by fellow Survivalists.
Hell, I think the black powder mountain man reinactor/lifestyle admirers are a bit out there, ,but I have a 50 cal black powder and ball
"just in case" ....


this is like a couple of 12 year olds in here,,shamefull

chef

OPS says:
Having said all that, 99% of my preps are for the short to mid term and localized events like winter storms, loss of grid power,  unemployment, house fire, serious auto accident, loss of the house itself for whatever reason, etc.  Living here in rural America, my odds of having to bug out are minimal.  But, I do have bugout plans in place and the means to accomplish same.  I'm not clairvoyant, and the thing that kills you is the thing that yo didn't see coming.  Having LTS on food and water were an easy add-on to my short to mid term preps.

OP, have yo made up a threat matrix?  You may be redirected in your prepping if you do..

Ops
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I don't even know what a "THREAT MATRIX" is?

I'm not a survivalist or a Doomsday Prepper, just an old ex-street-cop who has survived multiple shooting situations, major riots, Black Panthers and Black Muslims and was curious what the more aware younger folks were preparing for.  But since I live down here on the TX Gulf Coast I do have a couple of weeks extra food & water for hurricanes.  I'm also right near the Tex-Mex border where there are lots of serious drug & cartel related shootings and home invasions, so I try to stay prepared for that. But that's about it.

A threat matrix is basically a list of events ordered in probability and rated, so you can concentrate on the ones that are more likely to happen.  Kinda what you're trying to do, but what will effect you, not what others are prepping for.  I don't have to worry about earthquake preps as much as a poster from Cali.  You diversify your preps, but you concentrate on the major threats.

So my threat matrix could be


Job loss/no income-9
Tornado-8
Hurricane-5
Ice Storm-3
Social unrest-2
Red Dawn-1


With the job market being shitty and unpredictable I have food and money put away in case my wife and I lose our source of income. We have enough money in the bank to cover our mortgage and utility bills for a year.

So because I'm on the edge of tornado alley, I gave it a higher rating than other hazards.  There is a chance of damage to my house (plywood, tarps, plywood, sandbags) and power loss due to the tornado (generator, lanterns, flashlights)

I really doubt there will be an invasion of rioters in my section of suburbia, especially because I'm a stone's throw away from the PD and City Hall.  Just in case I have means to defend myself, but I don't have rolls of concertina wire..

There's a saying from a while back "I prep so I don't end up at the Superdome."  That's far more likely than warding off swarms of rioters or being forced into FEMA re-education camps.

Mouse doubled, ATF informed.

Very well said

It's also worth noting that many of our preps serve more than one purpose. A well stocked food pantry would come in handy after an ice storm, but it would also be useful after losing your job and living off savings until finding new employment. My backup propane heaters are great for staying warm in a grid down situation, or after the furnace quits at 2AM.

Once you drill it down, being prepared is all about giving yourself options to overcome a given problem. The preparedness mindset is nothing more than consciously taking ownership of your own health and welfare, as opposed to being at the mercy of others. My family will NEVER be at the mercy of others in an emergency if I can help it.


Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

It's not so much ray-ce riots but food riot by the FSA.

I also see the dollar dying (it's slipping as the world's reserve currency).  The dollar dies and when the FSA's EBTs don't buy much, they'll just take it.  It starts out with food, then spreads to anything they darn well want.  

When it gets bad, they may just be sent to camps where they'll be housed and fed (yeah, just like the Nazis did).